Pennsylvania 2014 Discussion Thread

[J. J.]

A status update by Kathleen Kane on her review of the handling of the Sandusky case reveals that emails from Corbett's tenure as AG that were thought to have been deleted have been recovered.


I'm sure nothing incriminating will come out of this for Corbett.

It undermines the "Corbett slow walked it" argument a bit, but not entirely.

One problem is that Corbett has said, publicly, that they got the first tip that Sandusky was doing stuff on campus because of a tip sent to the Centre County DA in October 2010.

The DA there is elected, and she is a Democrat, first elected in November 2009.  Corbett endorsed her opponent in 2009, who was the incumbent.  She was re-elected, unopposed, in 2013, got both party nominations, and won by the largest margin of any candidate for that office since at least 1981, including one that also ran unopposed.  If she backs that up, there is no "slow walking" question.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I don't see the primary being too damaging to the eventual nominee, especially since IIRC this is the Democrats' #1 target this cycle, so the short on cash thing won't last.

There you have it, boys. NEW! Forum conventional wisdom: Corbett can get used to four more years in the mansion.

Um, not sure why the criticism. Is Snowstalker wrong somehow?

...

It's a joke because everyone around here takes the opposite of what Snowstalker says as the truth.

[Keystone Phil]

Dem State Committee unsurprisingly didn't endorse for Governor at their meeting over the weekend. However, there is a story being spun as embarrassing for Schwartz: she came in second in the vote and it wasn't really close.

McCord - 154
Schwartz - 77
Wolf - 59
Hanger - 16
McGinty - 15

Three things: McCord is posting a hugely misleading graphic with these results and the headline "McCORD WINS!" McGinty coming in behind Hanger is pretty sad. Finally, Wolf is undoubtedly getting traction.

And things are already turning ugly between McCord and Schwartz (this gets especially bad when you're from the same county and competing in a primary). Former Philadelphia City Controller and huge Schwartz supporter/surrogate was quoted saying, "He's [McCord] a f**king a*****e." Not unfamiliar vocabulary for Saidel but noteworthy that it's getting ugly and it's only February.

http://mobile.philly.com/news/politics/?wss=/philly/news/politics/state/&id=244653531&

[Keystone Phil]

State House Speaker Sam Smith is retiring after 27 years in the House and two terms as Speaker. He was facing a more conservative primary challenger. He barely beat his unknown primary challenger in a shocker back in 2012.

[J. J.]

Three things: McCord is posting a hugely misleading graphic with these results and the headline "McCORD WINS!" McGinty coming in behind Hanger is pretty sad. Finally, Wolf is undoubtedly getting traction.

I think it will be McCord or Wolf, at this point.  Wolf is running commercials on broadcast TV in Phila in the daylight.

[Badger]

State House Speaker Sam Smith is retiring after 27 years in the House and two terms as Speaker. He was facing a more conservative primary challenger. He barely beat his unknown primary challenger in a shocker back in 2012.

Well, his avoiding a humiliating primary loss helps delay the PA GOP totally jumping the shark by a couple years at least, so.....

[TX Conservative Dem]

McCord's been twice elected statewide as Pennsylvania State Treasurer, I'm betting he wins the Democratic nomination for the governorship in May.

On the other hand, Corbett is hoping the Dems pick Schwartz or some left-winger, so he can beat the snot out of them in November.

[Morning in Atlas]

Schwartz isn't a flaming liberal, but she sure isn't moderate either. Her main issue just isn't a good fit, and it gives Corbett room to eke out a victory.

[IceSpear]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

[Morning in Atlas]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

[IceSpear]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

[Morning in Atlas]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

Because Republicans having a wave in a redistricting year means that there are no Blue Dogs anymore. ::

Critz, Holden, and Altmire were gerrymandered out of their districts, Kanjorski just broke down because of a few Akin-esque comments, a scandal, and a strong challenger, but only got carried by the wave in 2008, and Carney lost in 2010. There's still a decent chunk of rural Democrats who are socially conservative, and are pro-life there. 2008 is also irrelevant because of a wave. Of course Obama's going to win by 10 points.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I wouldn't be surprised if there turned out to be more pro-life Democrats than pro-choice Independents or Republicans.  PA is one of those states where party ID doesn't necessarily match with ideology, is it not?

Also, I should point out that even Casey, Jr. received a 100% rating from NARAL in 2011.  He may not support abortion, but he's not as pro-life as he used to be.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

Dude, we've been over this: 2008 wasn't going to be about partial birth abortion votes. The fact that the economy tanked gave Obama the big win. McCain's campaign threw a Hail Mary by running those ads (which I don't even remember).

And, as we have also discussed before, the link of Schwartz to abortion is a lot stronger than Obama's. Please stop this disingenuous routine of acting like they're the same. People are going to be very wary of Schwartz because of her history.

[Morning in Atlas]

I don't know where people got the idea that PA is a socially conservative bastion from. Casey Sr. is gone, and so are all the pro-life Western PA Democrats. They're Republicans now. Obama still won comfortably without them. Twice.

Mark Critz says hello. So does Altmire, and if you want to branch out from Western PA, Kanjorski, Holden, and Carney. Conservative Democrats are alive and well in Pennsylvania. Even Casey Jr. is somewhat moderate as far as abortion goes - he just wants to make it so abortion won't be an option, unlike your average anti-choice zealots.

The fact that every single one of those people you listed lost to a Republican (or in Holden's case, a pro-choice Democrat in a primary) kind of proves my point. Casey Jr. is the only remaining prominent pro-life Democrat, and he's a throwback to an earlier time.

Even after McCain deluged PA in ads highlighting Obama's vote against a partial birth abortion ban, Obama still won by 11 points. The idea that the electorate is going to re-elect a guy with a <30% approval rating because Schwartz used to run an abortion clinic borders on hilarious.

Dude, we've been over this: 2008 wasn't going to be about partial birth abortion votes. The fact that the economy tanked gave Obama the big win. McCain's campaign threw a Hail Mary by running those ads (which I don't even remember).

And, as we have also discussed before, the link of Schwartz to abortion is a lot stronger than Obama's. Please stop this disingenuous routine of acting like they're the same. People are going to be very wary of Schwartz because of her history.

Danke schoen. Good to see someone else sees PA as more than two cities.

[henster]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

[IceSpear]

So if the abortion issue wasn't strong enough to take precedence over a "Democratic wave" and the "economy collapsing", why would it take precedence over Corbett's disastrous tenure as governor?

A total of 54 percent of voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases while 37 percent say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

Among Democrats:
33% Legal in all cases, 35% Legal in most cases, 14% Illegal in most cases, 9% Illegal in all cases

Among Republicans:
12% Legal in all cases, 19% Legal in most cases, 39% Illegal in most cases, 25% Illegal in all cases

So pro-choice Republicans actually outnumber pro-life Democrats in this socially conservative bastion of Pennsylvania. Independents are also solidly pro-choice.

It isn't the 80s or the 90s anymore.

[TX Conservative Dem]

You know Corbett is praying that Schwartz is the Democratic nominee, because he will tie her to the unpopular President Obama.

I still believe Corbett has a good shot of reelection if McCord isn't the nominee

[IceSpear]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

[Potatoe]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

What Accomplishments? The only accomplishment under Corbett was to offend Gay People when he compared Homosexuality to incest as far as I'm concerned.

[publicunofficial]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

BOLD PREDICTION: CORBETT WILL CAMPAIGN FOR OFFICE.


SAFE R

[IceSpear]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

What Accomplishments? The only accomplishment under Corbett was to offend Gay People when he compared Homosexuality to incest as far as I'm concerned.

The accomplishment of not running an abortion clinic, duh.

[Keystone Phil]

If Schwartz becomes the nominee then abortion becomes an issue it doesn't if McCord is the nominee it's as simple as that. McCord doesn't have baggage like Schwartz with her voting record and past history.

See poll I posted above.

By the way, McCord is also pro-choice.

McCord didn't run an abortion clinic. It's clearly going to be more of an issue if someone like Schwartz is the nominee. Please stop comparing apples to oranges, dude. You are even annoying people that are on your side.

Running an abortion clinic and possibly having ties to the Gosnell clinic is going to get far more coverage in a state race (especially in a state with restrictive abortion laws) over a national campaign where the narrative was about the economic collapse. You really have to stop comparing the two. Of course Corbett's record is going to be the main focus but you're living in a fantasy land if you think Schwartz's history in that "other field" (which I believe was wiped from her website. Must not be taking campaign advice from you) is going to get as much play as Obama's support for partial birth abortion in a Presidential campaign waged in the midst of a financial meltdown.

Plus, PA is more partisan in Presidential elections. Dems "come home" far more often than in state and local elections. 

[Morning in Atlas]

Corbett will also use PR in discussing his accomplishments in office

>accomplishments