The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

SD (PPP)

38-57

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SD_320.pdf

WI (St. Norbert College)

53-44

http://www.snc.edu/communications/docs/pressreleases/13SpWIRelease.pdf

CA (PPIC)

66-32 (adults)
62-36 (registered voters)
57-40 ("likely voters")

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0313.pdf

SD -- straightforward enough.
WI -- average with Marquette Law School due to simultaneity and Wisconsin reverts to pink. The average of 53 and 58 is 50.5.
CA -- who at this stage can tell what a "likely voter" of 2016 is? "Registered voters" is a better indication of 2016 than "likely voters". 

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[King]

The post-election bump is gone, federal politics have returned to acrimony, Republican pols are returning to their "Obama is evil" mode... but all in all President Obama seems to have roughly the same support as he did at election time. 

The President so far is not hurting the chances of any Democratic nominee to win in 2016. 

The sequester divide returned everything to normal.  Now it's up to the economy to make Obama popular.

[pbrower2a]

The post-election bump is gone, federal politics have returned to acrimony, Republican pols are returning to their "Obama is evil" mode... but all in all President Obama seems to have roughly the same support as he did at election time. 

The President so far is not hurting the chances of any Democratic nominee to win in 2016. 

The sequester divide returned everything to normal.  Now it's up to the economy to make Obama popular.

Or successes in foreign policy.

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey, Quinnipiac:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1872

South Carolina, CD-01 (PPP):

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_326.pdf

One district in one very R-leaning state, and interesting in its own right -- but not usable on this map.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Virginia:

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Crash!



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Louisiana, Southern Media & Opinion Research

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http://www.nationalmemo.com/poll-jindals-approval-rating-craters-in-louisiana/

President Obama would not get elected in Louisiana, but at this point he seems to hurt no potential Democratic nominee in Louisiana.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_040913.pdf

The political war is hurting both. Of course President Obama won't be up for re-election... but Mitch McConnell will. 

PPP will be polling Colorado and North Carolina this weekend




60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Say Obama was going for a 3rd term...i wonder how early polling would look like for him.

[pbrower2a]

Say Obama was going for a 3rd term...i wonder how early polling would look like for him.

At 44% approval nationwide he would have roughly a 50% chance of winning the popular vote. The average incumbent gains 6% from approval from early polls. Challengers can carp at will at an incumbent not yet campaigning, and most issues are so polarized that almost everything is controversial. But once the campaign begins the incumbent who has been sniped at for some time shows why he was elected in the first place. So it is for an incumbent Governor or Senator, and probably an at-large House Representative. Because the Presidential election is fifty statewide elections (equivalent to Gubernatorial and Senatorial contests), five contests over Congressional districts, and one race to win a large city, the dynamics that elect a Governor or Senator apply nationwide. Also worth noting -- members of the House of Representatives and mayors of large cities do badly in Presidential campaigns.

There's one huge qualification: the incumbent must have been elected to begin with for the advantage to appear. Appointed Governors and Senators have a poor record of winning re-election in part because they have never shown the ability to win the office. Example: Gerald Ford wasn't a truly-bad President, but he still lost. Explanation: he had never won a statewide election, and had no idea how to run for President. Jimmy Carter at least knew how to do that.  

http://observationalepidemiology.blogspot.com/2010/03/nate-silver-debunks-another-polling.html

We saw many people convinced that because President Obama had approval ratings in the high 40s throughout 2012 that he would be defeated. That was without allowing for President Obama being an unusually-strong campaigner and a good strategist as in 2008. Obama might not have quite been in the league with FDR or Lincoln -- but he didn't have to be. The significant fact was that he never had a credible poll giving him less than 45% approval nationwide. If he had had approval ratings in the low 40s he would have likely lost.

It is easy to see in retrospect what would have put his approval ratings in the tank -- scandals, military or diplomatic debacles, or poor stewardship of the economy. Elected officials with those as a rule have low approval ratings and are extremely vulnerable. Scandals? They usually break a re-election bid before they are exposed because the media get cold to some pol who seems corrupt. Media give attention to those that they like, and someone who collects bribes or uses public funds to pay off a single mother who has his child turns journalists cold. Journalists know enough who is going down for such a scandal, and know enough to not treat them sympathetically.  Journalists rarely ride dead horses, and someone like Tom Brokaw is more likely to pump Barack Obama than Rod Blagojevich even though both might have seemed at one time to have similar chances to be President of the United States to the layman who 'knows' only what the media say.   



      

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Winthrop Poll - South Carolina - 832 Registered Voters - MoE: ±3.5% - Dates: 4/6-4/14

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3

Approve: 46.5%
Disapprove: 45.5%

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Ohio

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes--centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1884

Slipping shows in Ohio.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Obama gets a modest Boston-bump:

Approval today is 52/53% vs. 40/43% disapproval.

This is up from ca. 47-47 approval before Boston.

[King]

More interesting, since the day of the bombing, Gallup's unemployment and underemployment track polls have dropped 0.5%.  Those who say they are "Thriving" jumped 5% to 55% and the "Job Creation Index" (poll of employers who say they plan on hiring/laying off soon) has soared to five year highs after being down from the start of the month in the last three days.

Maybe a surge of patriotism is what we needed to get the economy going again.

[pbrower2a]

Obama gets a modest Boston-bump:

Approval today is 52/53% vs. 40/43% disapproval.

This is up from ca. 47-47 approval before Boston.

5% is huge.

[King]

Once again, unemployment falls, while job creation and economic confidence on the Gallup poll.  7th day in a row.

If Gallup is right about this...

[pbrower2a]

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Eisenhower  69.0
Nixon            60.8
Reagan         58.0
Clinton         57.5
Dubya          50.4
Obama         49.7

If you can see a significant difference between 58.0 and 57.5 or between 50.4 and 49.7, you see something that I can't.    Media are getting harsher upon Presidents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/162014/obama-approval-back-level-last-week.aspx

[You kip if you want to...]

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Eisenhower  69.0
Nixon            60.8
Reagan         58.0
Clinton         57.5
Dubya          50.4
Obama         49.7

If you can see a significant difference between 58.0 and 57.5 or between 50.4 and 49.7, you see something that I can't.    Media are getting harsher upon Presidents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/162014/obama-approval-back-level-last-week.aspx

Apparently he wasn't getting reelected because of his approval last year... when it was only about as good/bad (whoever you wanna look at it) as GWB's approval.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_CO_423.pdf



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

Approve 57%, Disapprove 43%, 5% Don't Know/Undecided

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes--centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1886

Up 3% from March by the same pollster, and approval is now close to the electoral result of 2012 in a strong state for the President. This is by a pollster with a slight R lean.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, EPIC/MRI:

President Barack Obama’s favorability ratings in the April survey are 52% favorable to 44% unfavorable.


http://www.freep.com/article/20130422/NEWS15/304220147/

Favorable/unfavorable, so I can't use it.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

But his one is usable -- PPP, NH:

-While Barack Obama's approval numbers have dropped in a lot of places since the election, his 52/46 spread in the state is pretty similar to what he pulled last November.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NH_042313.pdf

Close to the electoral results of 2012. Don't be surprised if some of the states in aqua or orange go pink. At this point, President Obama is doing nothing to hurt the Democratic nominee of 2016.

The state's motto may be "Live Free or Die", but Granite State voters seem to have little use for pointless killings by firearms.

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Blunder! She may have taken herself out of consideration for the GOP nomination for Vice-President.



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes--centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1888

If he were at this level of support six months before the general election as an incumbent, he would win. 44% is the threshold in approval rating at which the average incumbent has a 50% chance of winning re-election, and most states in either orange (ahead and above 44%), yellow (tied above 44%), or even aqua (behind but over 44%) he would win re-election.  I'm not so sure about North Carolina  (about an even chance), let alone Georgia, South Carolina, or Texas (neither of whose most recent polls make sense). He would win every state in any shade of red, Colorado and Pennsylvania, and at least one of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Anyone who thinks that he would lose the District of Columbia,  Delaware, New Mexico, or Washington state is bonkers.

Below 44% people recognize that voting for the politician in question was a mistake. Above 44% people need compelling reason to vote someone out. At 44% one has undeniable doubt.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

The real issue, of course, is whether the President is hurting the chances of the Democratic nominee who follows him. He isn't doing so.

To show what that looks like I will show 30% saturation in blue for Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota -- one time only to show what the contrasts look like, and definitely not to show how the President's approval rating is in those states:

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is PA a different shade of orange than the other orange states? Is it because the numbers are tied?

[pbrower2a]

Why is PA a different shade of orange than the other orange states? Is it because the numbers are tied?

Yes -- the poll showed a tie. That is the first tie that I have shown on this map. I like pastel shades, and the gradation pink> orange> yellow> aqua > pale blue seems natural.

 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why is PA a different shade of orange than the other orange states? Is it because the numbers are tied?

Yes -- the poll showed a tie. That is the first tie that I have shown on this map. I like pastel shades, and the gradation pink> orange> yellow> aqua > pale blue seems natural.

 

Thanks.