The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

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MN-PPP:

51-47 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012413.pdf

Looks slightly, but not significantly, weaker than the 2012 result.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve:  52, u

Disapprove:  42, -1

[Tender Branson]

Maine (PPP):

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 54%
Disapprove...................................................... 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_ME_125.pdf

TX & RI will be polled this weekend.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Approve:  55, +1

Disapprove:  44, -1

Strongly Approve:  34, +2

Strongly Disapprove:  35, +1

[pbrower2a]

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Districts not distinguished.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[Tender Branson]

PA - Quinnipiac:

51-46 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1836

NY - Quinnipiac:

57-39 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1838

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS
 

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_130.pdf

With the usual caveat that getting a good sample in Texas statewide politics  is difficult, this is not bad for a state that the President lost by 16% in November. I see Texas as a fringe state for contention in 2016. Republican incumbents in the Governorship and the Senate are about the same (Cornyn) or far worse (Perry) in their margins of approval ratings as the President. That's not my opinion  -- that is the polling.

US Senate:

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Governor:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_129.pdf

By the way -- Texas voters want an assault-weapons ban.

Which is about as poor as approvals for right-wing Republican Governors in liberal-to-moderate states (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida).

PA - Quinnipiac:

51-46 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1836

NY - Quinnipiac:

57-39 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1838

No surprise here:

Massachusetts Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_130.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

So, you may ask, "Why does that crazy pbrower2a have an obsession about the President's approval rating? He is not running for re-election."

It is about 2016. It is of course possible that President Obama will be seen fondly in 2016 as a Democratic nominee offers to carry his political legacy, and seek change in the Presidency in the form of the Republican nominee. Who knows? Democrats could nominate a turkey as a candidate to be the 45th President. Nobody can now predict that, and this map would be irrelevant. We would have plenty of interesting maps showing what will then matter most in the election.

 It is also possible that President Obama will endure some personal scandal or be around when a military/diplomatic debacle happens or the economy goes into a tailspin. The map would show that as a raft of states now in pink go aqua or even blue. Needing to formulate  proposals to undo the recent failures of the lame-duck President is a no-win situation. Just look at how the 2008 election went. John McCain could not repudiate the policies of Dubya without offending the core R support and could never push reforms that would satisfy Democrats in large enough numbers to win.

President Obama is not facing buyer's remorse.

[Frodo]

President Obama’s popularity surges to three-year high

Posted by Scott Clement and Aaron Blake on January 30, 2013 at 7:00 am

President Obama is riding a wave of personal popularity into his second term, with his highest favorability ratings since his first year in office, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.



Fully 60 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Obama in the new poll, up slightly from October but a clear shift in opinion from an election year in which his ratings hovered in the mid-to-low 50s. And by 39 percent to 26 percent, the president now has more “strongly” positive ratings than strongly negative reviews, breaking a two-year stretch in which intense opposition was on par with (or higher than) intense support.

[Tender Branson]

3 more polls:

Reason-Rupe

52-42 approve

http://reason.com/assets/db/13595247487633.pdf

JZ Analytics

56-42 approve

http://www.jzanalytics.com/DATA/US_Results_ZA_011013.pdf

Democracy Corps (D)

54-44 approve

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/democracy-corps-d-16944

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Alaska, Iowa and the US this weekend.

[Tender Branson]

California checks in (PPIC), with 3 different measures:

All Adults: 65-29 approve
Registered Voters: 60-37 approve
Likely Voters: 56-41 approve

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, January 2013. Includes 1,704 adults, 1,386 registered voters, and 1,116 likely voters. Interviews took place January 15–22, 2013. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±3.5%. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0113.pdf

I guess RV makes the most sense for pbrower's map (WTF are "likely voters" at this point ?).

[pbrower2a]

California checks in (PPIC), with 3 different measures:

All Adults: 65-29 approve
Registered Voters: 60-37 approve
Likely Voters: 56-41 approve

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, January 2013. Includes 1,704 adults, 1,386 registered voters, and 1,116 likely voters. Interviews took place January 15–22, 2013. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±3.5%. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0113.pdf

I guess RV makes the most sense for pbrower's map (WTF are "likely voters" at this point ?).

Who could figure what a "likely voter" is for November 2016? Some people who will then be voting are 14 years old, and there will obviously be some habitual voters who do not vote in 2016 unless dead people become commonplace voters due to local vote fraud.

"Adults" is too broad a category, and I concur with the idea that people registered to vote in 2012 who can still vote are going to vote in an open-seat Presidential election.

Quantity trumps quality at this stage, and quality will become better as political events define themselves in 46 months.  Now that California is filled in, every state with at least 13 electoral votes is somehow accounted for, if not perfectly (I really take any poll of Texas, no matter what the source, with a Texas-sized boulder of salt because the state is Texas, even if I can get carried away with the alluring prospect of the state becoming competitive again).



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[Tender Branson]

Rhode Island (PPP):

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 59%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_RI_201.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Rhode Island (PPP):

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 59%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_RI_201.pdf

No surprise there.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Blue3]

Obama approval rating at 60% nationwdie

http://www.politicususa.com/fox-news-sinks-12-year-ratings-obama-approval-hits-60.html

[Tender Branson]

Obama approval rating at 60% nationwdie

http://www.politicususa.com/fox-news-sinks-12-year-ratings-obama-approval-hits-60.html

That's the favorable rating, not the approval rating.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa Survey Results (PPP):

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

We now get to see a little orange.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_020513.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (40% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

PPP, national:

National Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q12 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 6%

The national split was 51-47, so about 4% of the population forgets that it voted for Mitt Romney. A bit fewer than 2% voted for others. But people remember voting for President Obama.

Other issues -- gun control and illegal immigrants:

Q6 Would you support or oppose banning assault
weapons?
Support ........................................................... 51%
Oppose ........................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q7 Would you support or oppose Congress
passing stricter gun laws?
Support ........................................................... 53%
Oppose ........................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 8%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the National Rifle Association?
Favorable........................................................ 43%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q9 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate supported by the National Rifle
Association, or would it not make a difference?
More likely....................................................... 26%
Less likely ....................................................... 39%
Wouldn't make a difference............................. 32%
Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q10 Do you support or oppose legislation that
would allow for a legal way for illegal
immigrants in America to become U.S.
citizens?
Support ........................................................... 49%
Oppose ........................................................... 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q11 Do you think illegal immigrants who are living in
America should be offered a chance to apply
for legal citizenship, or do you think they should
all be deported back to their native countries?

They should be offered a chance to apply for
legal citizenship...............................................64%
They should be deported back to their home
country............................................................27%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_National_205.pdf

........

President Obama is on the winning side of some issues. Illegal immigrants in America from (often from childhood) don't seem to be a menace.  The gun lobby and either non-s[porting guns or firearms in the wrong hands aren't so popular. 

[pbrower2a]

Franklin and Marshall, Pennsylvania

RatePres. How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Would you say he is doing… an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as President?

                 Excellent    Good     Only fair  Poor   Don’t know
Feb 2013       14%       28%        23%      34%        1%

This map is not made for EGFP polls. "Fair" is ambiguous in its meaning.  We did not use these polls for Presidential approval in 2012 and we do not use them now.

I could use "1 through 5" and letter grades, treating a "C" or a "3" as if it were undecided .

https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyfeb13.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Alaska Survey Results (PPP)

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President Obama lost the state by 14%, so if this rating is accurate he isn't doing badly. A hint: the Democratic Senator isn't in obvious danger of being ousted in 2014. He would need to face a very strong opponent or make some uncharacteristic blunders in a State that leans strongly-R.  A certain former Governor can probably ignore any temptation for a return to Alaska politics: 

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As is said in a dialect that butchers the English language almost as badly as she does,

"Fuhgeddaboudit".

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_020713.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (40% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Obama's ratings ahead of the SOTU speech:

CBS News: 52-38 approve

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57568828/poll-45-approve-of-obamas-handling-of-the-economy

Rasmussen: 55-44 approve

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Gallup: 52-42 approve

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

[Tender Branson]

Obama's approval in West Virginia is now 43%:

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http://wvmetronews.com/some-early-poll-numbers-out-for-u-s-senate-race

[pbrower2a]

Is this the coal-baron company? Obama approval at 43% (I assume that disapproval is still higher) in West Virginia suggests a huge improvement from the vote of 35.5% in 2012. What could be going right for President Obama in West Virginia? President Obama in 2012 did worse than McGovern did in the state in 1972.

This poll seems to come on behalf of a right-wing special interest, a group 'against lawsuit abuse'

The prospect for the Republican nominee for President in 2016 look bleak indeed.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (40% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

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A virtual tie as in 2008 or 2012. This is much better for the President than the previous PPP poll for North Carolina even if there is no change of category. Let's put it this way: if the election were to be held in November 2013 with the current level of approval translating into the usual results against 'average' opposition, the President would likely win the state because the average incumbent gains 6% between early in the year and the election due to campaigning.

The numbers add to 101% due to rounding.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (40% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)