The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

PPP polled Pennsylvania  and Virginia; Quinnipiac polled Virginia; neither asked about approval of the President. No change.   

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

PPP has a national result:

National Survey Results

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It's remarkable how many people forget how they voted. "Someone else" got less than 2% of the popular vote, so the 7% who replied "Someone else/Don't remember" went  2% for "someone else",  and of the other 5% -- 1% forgot that they voted for Obama and 4% forgot that they voted for Romney. 

Other questions involve Congress, guns and gun control, and Chris Christie:

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A Republican who shows any resistance to the Tea Party gets respect. For the rest of the poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Natl_10913.pdf

PPP may be run by a Democrat, but it seems to have a slight R lean.

[Tender Branson]

PPP has a national result:

National Survey Results

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It's remarkable how many people forget how they voted. "Someone else" got less than 2% of the popular vote, so the 7% who replied "Someone else/Don't remember" went  2% for "someone else",  and of the other 5% -- 1% forgot that they voted for Obama and 4% forgot that they voted for Romney. 

Other questions involve Congress, guns and gun control, and Chris Christie:

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A Republican who shows any resistance to the Tea Party gets respect. For the rest of the poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Natl_10913.pdf

PPP may be run by a Democrat, but it seems to have a slight R lean.

This is a poll of ALL registered voters though, not only people who voted in November.

Previous polls have shown that Obama would increase his margin over Romney if non-voters actually voted, especially non-registered adults.

So, it is only natural that Obama would lead Romney by 8 now factoring in this and also factoring in that Romney's image has plunged in the past few months and Obama has gained.

[pbrower2a]

At this point we don't know who will be voting in 2014. A 'likely voters' screen ordinarily best describes who votes in an off-year election. But this said...

1. Americans love a winner. President Obama has stronger approval than Congress as a whole because he won a struggle which the GOP/Tea Party forced. Sure, one can give credit to others and culpability to Republican pols who under-performed.

2. Although mass analysis of voting psychology is suspect, it would seem that more people forgot that they voted for Mitt Romney than forgot that they voted for Barack Obama. Those who voted for a third-party nominee are excused, and I figure that most of those are disgusted with our political system or its results and don't see Republicans or Democrats as a solution. Maybe many people want to forget that they voted for Mitt Romney.

3. We can largely ignore Mitt Romney as a possible GOP nominee in 2016. Just look at the favorable numbers.

4. The Republican brand is in shambles. Sure, it kept its House majority because of gerrymandering two years ago... but House Republicans have a particularly bad image. Just because a Congressional district is R+4 does not mean that an extremist can be a sure winner. A Marxist should lose a D+4 district to a moderate Republican -- right? Zany R candidates for the US Senate from Indiana and Missouri, states that President Obama did not contest, lost.

5. Openings may appear for moderates who choose to run as Republicans. Someone who can  challenge the anti-intellectualism of incumbent GOP pols while committing to fiscal conservatism could win a primary. Anti-intellectualism in the GOP doesn't stop at assailing wackiness in the Ivory Tower; it goes after the educated middle class, even at the low end of the intelligentsia such as schoolteachers. Schoolteachers are one of the largest occupational groups in America.

The non-white, non-Anglo, and non-Christian contingents of the American middle class (as well as about half of the middle class that is white, Anglo, and Christian) attributes such success as they have heavily to formal education. Push creationism and politically-loaded pseudo-history, and one can expect a reaction.   

The Republicans need miracles to win 2014 even if the midterm has a reduced electorate. If people who have been voting for Republican pols find Democratic alternatives attractive, then the gerrymandering of 2011 becomes a disaster by sponsoring pols who can only fail. 22 months is enough to earn some miracles, but that is a short time in which to sort things out.   

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (Quinnipiac):

52-44 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1830

[Tender Branson]

Virginia (PPP):

53-43 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Virginia_110.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Virginia (PPP):

53-43 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Virginia_110.pdf

   

Virginia (Quinnipiac):

52-44 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1830

Average margin 9% between the two. President Obama seems to be gaining since the election (electoral margin 51-47). 

PPP will be polling Florida and North Carolina this weekend. Could someone please poll Out West?

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_FiscalCliff_Decemberv6.pdf

This is a composite poll of twelve states (CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, WI). It is already a month old. President Obama won all but one of those states).

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Voting in these states, according to the poll, was roughly 52 Obama, 42 Romney, 3 other candidates, and 3 aren't saying. I'm guessing that it was 53-45-2 in those states.   

Were I to use the 51% approval rating in the states not already shown for statewide approval ratings that PurplePoll has in its composite I would get this result: 

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.


I do not use composite polls and discourage others from using them.  Here is what I go with:

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[J. J.]

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Approve:  54, -1

Disapprove:  44, +1

Strongly Approve:  29, -2

Strongly Disapprove:  33, +1

[J. J.]

Yesterday's Gallup:

Approve:  51, -2

Disapprove:  42, u

His weekly ia stable at 53.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve:  52, +1

Disapprove:  41, -1

[J. J.]

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Approve:  54, u

Disapprove:  46, +1

Strongly Approve:  30, +1

Strongly Disapprove:  37, +2


The SD number might be a bad sample.

[J. J.]

Yesterday's Gallup:

Approve:  52, u

Disapprove:  41, -1

His weekly is at 53.

[Tender Branson]

NC - PPP:

46-52

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_116.pdf

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_116.pdf

No change in color, but that could be deceiving. The prior poll had President Obama 1% below an exact tie.     

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[Tender Branson]

2 new national polls seem to agree with Rasmussen and Gallup:

CNN/Time: 55-43

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/01/16/rel1a.pdf

ABC News/Wash Post: 53-43

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/01/16/National-Politics/Polling/release_194.xml

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve:  53, +1

Disapprove:  41, u (though it is showing +1

His weekly is at 54.

[pbrower2a]

Almost as far west as one can get, but only four electoral votes and no surprise:

Hawaii, 65% approve, 29% disapprove, 6% don't know  


http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/14/18076-civil-beat-poll-did-abercrombie-make-the-right-choice-for-senator/    

Florida remains polarized, but President Obama would win it:


Florida Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_011713.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[Tender Branson]

NJ - Quinnipiac:

58-39 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1833

[Tender Branson]

WV - Harper Polling (R):

34-59 disapprove

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/wv-senate-capito-up-big

[J. J.]

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Approve:  55, u

Disapprove:  43, -1

Strongly Approve:  31, +2

Strongly Disapprove:  35, +1

[Tender Branson]

VA - Christopher Newport University:

51-43 approve

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/another-survey-shows-dead-heat-in-va-governors-race/2013/01/23/3479edfc-656e-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_story.html

MD - Gonzales Research:

64-35 approve

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-01-23/news/bal-poll-shows-obama-omalley-approval-remain-strong-20130122_1_gonzales-research-death-penalty-maryland-voters

[pbrower2a]

PPP had polls involving Maine and Minnesota, but none asked any question about Presidential approval. An entity in Colorado asked several questions about gun control (gun control wins big in Colorado, with 61% margins on  banning the sale of assault rifles and massacre clips and bigger margins on some other issues). Questions about approval of the President would have been interesting in those states.

NJ - Quinnipiac:

58-39 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1833

No change.

WV - Harper Polling (R):

34-59 disapprove

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/wv-senate-capito-up-big

R pollster, but it is hard to see how President Obama could have approval above 40% in West Virginia.

VA - Christopher Newport University:

51-43 approve

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/another-survey-shows-dead-heat-in-va-governors-race/2013/01/23/3479edfc-656e-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_story.html

MD - Gonzales Research:

64-35 approve

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-01-23/news/bal-poll-shows-obama-omalley-approval-remain-strong-20130122_1_gonzales-research-death-penalty-maryland-voters

Consistent with prior polls in Virginia and with electoral results in Maryland.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve:  53, +2

Disapprove:  42, --1

His weekly is at 50, which is 4 point drop.

[Tender Branson]

MN-PPP:

51-47 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012413.pdf