538 Update Thread

[Speed of Sound]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

New Hampshire and Iowa have joined the 80% club. 

Obama has at least 4:1 odds to win states totaling 281 EVs

[Speed of Sound]

New Hampshire and Iowa have joined the 80% club. 

Obama has at least 4:1 odds to win states totaling 281 EVs

And is 2:1 in an additional 22 EVs.

[Lief 🗽]

Indiana is also now Lean Dem in the Senate.

[exopolitician]

Indiana is also now Lean Dem in the Senate.

It's something that God intended to happen.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

lol at the Tea Party... Colorado, Nevada, Delaware, and now Indiana. And yet some conservatives still think they're a good force.

[Joe Biden 2020]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

[Speed of Sound]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

With a new update tonight, Obama is at 305.3 EVs, 83.7% odds, and a 2.2 pts margin of victory.

This is looking VERY good.

[Joe Biden 2020]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

I thought you trying to say it increased from 81.4% to 81.6%  I got you now!

[Speed of Sound]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

I thought you trying to say it increased from 81.4% to 81.6%  I got you now!

Ah, very good! Sorry bout that!

[Joe Biden 2020]

No news is good news for Obama, as the odds improve slightly to 81.4-18.6. A 1/10th drop in the PV for Romney has the gap at 2.1 (now nearly eclipsing the MOE of +/-2.2), 50.5 to 48.4. OH numbers (especially Rassy's surrender to a tie now) and Ipsos' improvements across the board in swing states probably are the driving factors of the improvement. OH now 81%, still basically identical with Obama's chance of winning the whole kit-and-caboodle.

If those are Obama's chances, we're talking the first freeze and the first snowfall in hell.

Typos....

Err, sorry? Left to right/Obama v. Romney percentages is how Silver always portrays the numbers. Thus, 81.4% to 18.6% in favor of Obama. If anything, I technically misused the word "odds", but otherwise what was the typo (it indeed may well be there and I'm just missing it, not trying to be smart)?

I thought you trying to say it increased from 81.4% to 81.6%  I got you now!

Ah, very good! Sorry bout that!

Not a problem!

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, Indiana (logically) turned blue in the Senate map!

Montana is pretty weird: Rehberg is considered as a 2:1 favorite merely on strength of the "state fundamentals", even though the adjusted polling average now gives Tester a 2-point lead. This is a shaky situation for the model...

[Ljube]

A very good Nate's analysis.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

[Speed of Sound]

A very good Nate's analysis.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/

Nate's very aware of what his numbers mean in relation to the polling and that his method gives a projection and are not his predicted "winner." If only others could see that...

[DemPGH]

I know it's Senate, but the strong possibility of Mourdock, Akin, and S. Brown losing is super awesome. I'm not sure why MA has not completely rejected Brown: pro big business and comes off to me as a real arrogant jerk. But it will be interesting to see what Nate does with the Presidential by Monday - Obama has been creeping up slowly but steadily.

[Cliffy]

sounds like he's hedging on his predictions.  what's funny is he's right the only argument that can be made against all the liberal pollsters (hello they are all liberal firms or hired by libs) is they are biased.  Which is the only reason he can reach his 84% or whatever he's picking.  We'll see pretty early by how the swing states start going just like he says.  It'll be over after that because they are all assuming that you get 08 or better turnout, and it's not happening in EV nor will it happen. 

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[Yank2133]

Not really.

Silver has been saying that for months now. Jesus, do people not understand probabilities?

[exopolitician]

Nate on twitter:

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[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

306.5-231.5 EV (Obama +1.2, Romney -1.2)
84.4%-15.6% chance of EC victory (Obama +0.7%, Romney -0.7%)
50.5%-48.4% PV margin (Obama -0.1%, Romney ±0%)

Nowcast

307.7-230.3 EV (Obama +1.4, Romney -1.4)
86.3%-13.7% chance of EC victory (Obama +0.6%, Romney -0.6%)
50.5%-48.3% PV margin (Obama -0.1%, Romney ±0%)

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

Montana has a higher chance of going Obama than North Carolina now?!

[Speed of Sound]

Montana has a higher chance of going Obama than North Carolina now?!

It's simply a mistake. None of the polls show any sign of that. PPP last polled there according to Silver on the 16th and had 53-43 Romney.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Montana has a higher chance of going Obama than North Carolina now?!

If you look at it in the sidebar it looks like some sort of glitch in the 538 website, since the polling average is at R+1.9% when there isn't actually a single poll listed below R+4%.

[Speed of Sound]

After fixing MT and including the last few polls of the evening, Obama actually increased his lead, and pushed Romney's odds under 15% for the first time since the temporary Sept 30th-Oct 4th bottoming out (85.1-14.9). PV projection now 50.6-48.3.

[Ljube]

Nate Silver tweets:

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