538 Update Thread

[Gass3268]

I figured that if Intrade has a thread and map, 538 should as well.

10/21/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 288.0/Romney 250.0
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 67.6%/Romney 32.4%
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.0/Romney 48.9%

Tossups: Colorado and Virginia

% Chance of winning each state:

Projected vote share:

I'll do daily updates here

[Joe Biden 2020]

That's a plausible map.  The only changes I would make are turning NH and CO Republican.  You would still have a 275-263 Obama victory.

[Ty440]

Can we sticky this, por favor?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Can we sticky this, por favor?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Can we sticky this, por favor?

[Lief 🗽]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I still think Virginia will come home for Obama in the end. That final PPP poll will be one to watch. They were right on point in 2008.

[Ty440]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

In Nate we trust....

[Gass3268]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

In Nate we trust....

Exactly...

He predicted 49 states correctly in 2008, only getting Indiana wrong. Also he was  33/33 and 32/34 for Senate seats in 2008 and 2010 respectively, getting only Colorado and Nevada wrong in 2010. He's been right 97.4% of the time!

[Lief 🗽]

You can say that about most big-name poll aggregators (RCP, Pollster, TPM, Princeton Election Consortium). There's nothing special about 538 that it needs to be stickied.

[© tweed]

You can say that about most big-name poll aggregators (RCP, Pollster, TPM, Princeton Election Consortium). There's nothing special about 538 that it needs to be stickied.

as a follower of his work since his Baseball Prospectus days -- the man is a gem, he is brilliant, deserves benefit of the doubt in all situations.

[BaldEagle1991]

I can't wait for Obama to do good in the next debate, then this map will change for his benefit.

[LiberalJunkie]

Haha u beat me to it. You copied my Intrade map

[Lief 🗽]

You can say that about most big-name poll aggregators (RCP, Pollster, TPM, Princeton Election Consortium). There's nothing special about 538 that it needs to be stickied.

as a follower of his work since his Baseball Prospectus days -- the man is a gem, he is brilliant, deserves benefit of the doubt in all situations.

The guy's certainly smart and I enjoy and respect his analysis, but a simple poll average says the same thing as his complicated model with significantly less work.

[Gass3268]

10/22/2012

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 289.7/Romney 248.3 (Obama +1.97)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 69.3%/Romney 30.7% (Obama +1.7%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.1%/Romney 48.8% (Obama +0.1%)

Likely Obama: Wisconsin
Lean Obama: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio
Tossups: Colorado and Virginia
Lean Romney: Florida 
Likely Romney: North Carolina 

% Chance of winning each state:

Changes:
Virginia is tied 50%-50%
Wisconsin moved into the 80% range

Projected vote share:

Changes:
Virginia is now tied 49.6-49.6

[Ty440]

Nice to see VA tied, with it's huge AA population and being one of the most diverse states in the country, Obama should throw everything he has at it.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama now up to 70.1% chance to win.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Nate did a post debate update, changes are from yesterday's numbers:

10/22/2012 - Part Deux

11/6/2012 Projected Electoral Vote - Obama 290.7/Romney 247.3 (Obama +2.97)
11/6/2012 Projected Chance of Winning - Obama 70.1%/Romney 29.9% (Obama +2.5%)
11/6/2012 Projected Popular Vote - Obama 50.1%/Romney 48.8% (Obama +0.1%)

Not going to update the map, as I don't think there were any changes

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

Sticky please.

[Lief 🗽]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

[citation needed]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

[citation needed]

Would I need a citation if I said the sky is blue?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Why even bother having an election, lets just let 538 decide who wins. /sarcasm

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

[citation needed]

Would I need a citation if I said the sky is blue?

Yes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why should we sticky this? 538 is just one of many online averages/predictions.

No, 538 is the single best political forecaster in the world, and by far.

[citation needed]

Would I need a citation if I said the sky is blue?

Yes.

Please, let's not turn this forum into another Wikipedia.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Not going to update the map, as I don't think there were any changes

Virginia to D >50% on the first map, D >40% on the second.