US With British Parties

[afleitch]

Chester would be strongly Tory, not Lib Dem. Half of it is Philly suburbs/exurbs and half of it is rural farmland like Lancaster/York/Lebanon.

That's part of the reason why I gave the Lib Dems a 'pity county' It's suprisingly the sort of place that the Lib Dems would be able to target and do well in in the UK particularly as it is both wealthy and educated.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

They'd do better than their average, but it would probably be Tory; Chester is pretty Republican at a local level.

[Peter the Lefty]

Labour would have a tricky time South of New England/New York City.  Being a socialist party, historically at least, it would've generally been met with hostility, even in a lot of working-class areas.  White ones, in particular.  I think the Lib Dems would probably be the second-largest party overall in the US. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The idea is that American politics are like British politics, and that these are established parties.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

To add to what Al was saying, if you are looking at how the USA would vote you have to bear in mind that voting behaviour would be different too. There wouldn't be a wierd obsession with what people do in the bedroom and people would vote on the economy and jobs. Most importantly however, people would vote pretty much the same way they have voted for the past fifty years.

Here's coal seams in the USA (not sure which areas were thoroughly mined however)

http://coalgeology.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/US-Coal-Producing-

A handy tool to use is this;

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/explorer.html

It allows you to see areas of poverty, low income, manufacturing etc to see where Labour would likely be strongest.

There are two particular nuances that complicate things. Firstly race. The UK is lucky to have a handful of constituencies with a minority population of over 30% yet the USA has whole states. If black voting habits were the same then Labour would dominate disproportionately in some states. Secondly there is mobility; people in the US tend to move from state to state. This dilutes some older voting habits.

I had a stab at Pennsylvania in an 'all things being equal' scenario

I looked at past voting habits from the 50's and 60's, areas of coal mining, areas of manufacturing, areas of poverty and educational attainment and also %Catholic and came up with this guesstimate for Pennsylvania (the Lib Dems taking the richest county with the highest % of people with a degree)

Chester would be strongly Tory, not Lib Dem. Half of it is Philly suburbs/exurbs and half of it is rural farmland like Lancaster/York/Lebanon.

That's part of the reason why I gave the Lib Dems a 'pity county' It's suprisingly the sort of place that the Lib Dems would be able to target and do well in in the UK particularly as it is both wealthy and educated.

They'd do better than their average, but it would probably be Tory; Chester is pretty Republican at a local level.

Chester reminds me of Sheffield Hallam, which is currently Lib Dem held and will remain so until Nick Clegg retires, at least. Before 1997 though, it was a safe Tory seat, and it could go back to them in the future.

Labour would have a tricky time South of New England/New York City.  Being a socialist party, historically at least, it would've generally been met with hostility, even in a lot of working-class areas.  White ones, in particular.  I think the Lib Dems would probably be the second-largest party overall in the US. 

Peternerdman, I agree with you regarding Labor votes outside of the north-east, as my analysis of WV and KY shows. As for the showing of the Lib Dems, well, we'll have to wait and see!

The idea is that American politics are like British politics, and that these are established parties.

That it is, Snowstalker.

And I aim to do TN and NC by the end of the week, just got other commitments and the like.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Sorry for the delay, but here's Tennessee and North Carolina:

Tennessee

Tennessee, home to Graceland, agriculture, manufacturing, mountains, the Grand Ole Opry, the birthplace of many types of music, and on a much bitterer note, the Ku Klux Klan. Tennessee can be broken down by its three regions:

East Tennessee – Entirely located within the Appalachians, and home to the nation’s most visited national park, namely the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. East Tennessee long relied on agriculture, although manufacturing, health, education and tourism have by and large succeeded it. The cities of Knoxville and Chattanooga are located here, although unlike a lot of other cities I have previously analyzed, these cities would have the Tories as the largest party. East Tennessee has a whole has been a Tory stronghold for many years now, owing initially to their view of the local Liberal and Labor parties as aristocratic, and after that, support for social conservatism, although USIP have been gaining significant traction since the late 1990s.

Middle Tennessee – Containing Tennessee’s capital and second largest city, Nashville, which is a stronghold for Labor, and has been since the party’s founding. This is especially attributed to its sizeable immigrant and black population. University and education areas would carry sizeable Lib Dem votes, and the Tories would do better in the suburbs and in wealthy parts. Clarksville and Murfreesboro are home to a multitude of industries, and like Nashville, contain strongholds for all three major parties. The remainder of this part of Tennessee would be mainly Tory voting, much like East Tennessee, with USIP and the Lib Dems competing for second place. The ANP and predecessors would have done well in urban and suburban white areas, particularly prior to the 1970s, and would still have pockets of support today.

West Tennessee – The least populous region of Tennessee, and also the region of Tennessee where the ANP and its predecessors rack up most of their votes, especially as a result of the Jim Crow laws prior to 1964. Since the passage of the Civil Rights Act though, West Tennessee was initially a contest between Labor and the NF/ANP, although the ANP vote declined in the 1980s and 1990s, before rising again in 2005 and 2010. The Tories have also increased their standing here since the 1980s. Memphis would be a strong base for Labor, attributable to its large population, although the Tories and Lib Dems would have slowly increased their votes here in the past two decades. The ANP’s predecessors would have had a large base in Memphis in the 1950s and 1960s, although since the 1980s this would have largely died out, although a small but loyal base remains (perhaps around 5-10%).

All in all, Tennessee would have been won by the Conservatives in 2010, although USIP mounted a significant challenge, and could win next time around.

Here's how Tennessee would have voted in elections from 1945 onwards:

1945: Labor
1950: States’ Rights Labor (SRL, predecessor to the NF)
1951: SRL
1955: SRL
1959: SRL
1964: National Front (NF, predecessor to the ANP)
1966: Labor
1970: NF (on the back of George Wallace’s campaign, you could say this was the US’ Enoch Powell moment)
February 1974: Conservative (courtesy of conservative Labor voters moving to the right, along with vote splitting from the weakened NF, Labor and Liberals)
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative, with a strengthening USIP vote

North Carolina

Historically known for its tobacco and furniture manufacturing, North Carolina has a much more diversified economy nowadays. Its economy is as diverse as its geography, which ranges from mountains to plains, with the Piedmont foothills cutting in the middle.

Coastal Plain – The impoverished parts, especially the parts with a high black population in the northern parts, would continue to have a higher-than-average Labor vote for this part of the US. Around East Carolina University would be a large number of Lib Dem voters, especially in 2010. For the most part, however, the Tories and USIP would be major players here, the latter especially since 2005.

Charlotte and metropolitan area (Metrolina) – The largest city in North Carolina, and the second largest banking and financial hub in the US,  Metrolina is home to large numbers of both government and private workers. Downtown Charlotte would have  a history of voting Labor, although increasing affluence would have diminished this since the 1980s, making Charlotte a Tory-Lib Dem battleground today, with Labor in a strong third place. The remainder of the metropolitan area, including the cities of Concord and Gastonia, would be some of the best Tory areas in the state, with the Lib Dems in a distant second place.

Piedmont Triad – Known for significant numbers of tobacco, textile and furniture corporations, and marked by the cities of Greensboro, Winston-Salem and High Point, the Triad would have a mix of voting patterns, ranging from moderate Labor/Lib Dem strength in Greensboro, to stronger Tory voting in Winston-Salem, to university Lib Dem support in High Point. The overall winner here would vary in year to year, while the Tories would have won the triad overall in 2010, keeping with the overall trend in the area, Labor would have won it in years like 1997 and 1966. The ANP and predecessors would have been strong here prior to the 1980s as well, and still have a base amongst some poor whites in the area today, particularly those out of work.

Research Triangle – Containing the state capital of Raleigh, three prominent universities, and the city of Durham, the Research Triangle, as the name implies, would be the strongest area for the Lib Dems in North Carolina. The Tories would be the second largest party, although Labor would have overtaken them in years like 1997, particularly with a strong support base in the city of Durham.

Rest of the Piedmont – The scant areas of the Piedmont that are not part of the Triad, Triangle or Metrolina would vote Tory and USIP, other parties falling way behind.

Mountain Region – USIP’s best area in North Carolina, although the Lib Dems would be strong in university areas, contributing to their victory in 1997. The Green Party would have a base around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. The majority of the area would support the Tories or USIP though.

North Carolina, as you can see, is more politically diverse than the US two-party system implies, whilst overall it is a Tory-leaning state, the Lib Dems and Labor have done well from time to time, and USIP could very well break through here in the next election.

Here's how North Carolina would have voted in elections from 1945 onwards:

1945: Conservative (thanks to vote-splitting from the SRL)
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative (thanks in part to the NF splitting the Labor vote)
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Liberal Democrat
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

And here's the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
ME + VT - Liberal Democrat

Race so far:
Labor: 70
Conservative: 87
Liberal Democrat: 7

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 18-50-4-22
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 7-48-22-19

I've got a lot on my plate at the moment, so SC & GA won't be up for another couple of weeks. In the meantime, feel free to comment on my job so far!

[DC Al Fine]

Are USIP/ANP going to win any states?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Are USIP/ANP going to win any states?

Most likely/probably not respectively, but we'll have to wait and see!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Update: I will be doing a bumper post containing SC, GA and FL over the weekend, and posting it hopefully early next week.

[Donerail]

Just so you know, you can use the color gold by typing the word gold in place of yellow in the formatting box. Means you don't have to highlight.

[Knives]

I'm fairy sure Kentucky would be safe Labour.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Just so you know, you can use the color gold by typing the word gold in place of yellow in the formatting box. Means you don't have to highlight.

Thanks for that, I'll use gold for the Lib Dems' colour from now on, although I'll keep the highlighting as gold can be still hard to see on some monitors and to some people.

I'm fairy sure Kentucky would be safe Labour.

I'd have to disagree, Kentucky would have been a Labor stronghold in years gone by, but with Labor's more regulatory, nanny-state policies towards prominent industries in Kentucky, you would see a gradual move towards the right in the 1980s and 1990s. Also, voters in agricultural areas have become more and more conservative as the years go by.

And now, after a long delay (my apologies to you all, I know some of you are eager for the rest of the states), here's SC, GA and FL! Note: Due to the lengthiness of each post, each state will get its own post, the updated map and vote shares will be in FL's post if there is room, otherwise it will be in its own post following FL.

South Carolina

The first state to secede from the Union in the prelude to the Civil War, and a hotbed of KKK activity in the post-Reconstruction period, modern South Carolina is today known for its very pro-business nature and social conservatism, although the days of extreme racism are long gone, as evidenced by the election of USIP Governor (or should I say Premier) Nikki Haley in 2010. South Carolina’s vote can vary widely from region to region, especially since the rise of USIP, beginning in the early 2000s.

Coastal Plain/Lowcountry (excluding Charleston)

Competitive area between the Tories and USIP, the latter winning this area overall in 2010. The relative whiteness of the region and low percentage of college graduates indicates a low LD vote, and populist parties, such as USIP, the ANP*, and predecessors to the latter, would do well here. Black majority areas close to the coast would be Labor strongholds, although the Tories’ reach out to minorities would have paid off somewhat here, picking up some of the more socially conservative black population.

* The modern day ANP would still have an organization here, but they would not get the support their predecessors got prior to the 1980s.

Charleston

The city itself would vote LD, although historically would supported Labor before the 1970s. May swing back to Labor in 2015 though, although that’s for when the find out the full national result Labor might do better amongst port workers and the black community, although Charleston is by and large a Liberal Democrat city, noted by its support of gay marriage.

Charleston’s suburbs, namely Berkeley and Dorchester Counties, would have strongly voted Tory in 2010, as they do in most years, with the LDs coming second. USIP wouldn’t do too well here, and they would do worse in the city. Charleston (as a whole) would have heavily supported the Whigs and Liberals in the 19th and early 20th centuries, owing to Charleston’s history of religious tolerance.

Piedmont (excluding Columbia)

Very much a mixed bag, blacks historically favoured Labor in big numbers once their voting rights were granted in 1964, and whites heavily voted NF until the late 1970s. Since the late 1970s, the ANP vote has decreased, the Tories (until the 2005 election), gained a iron grip on the area, and Labor support has contracted even further, even when the 1990s came around, bleeding to both the Tories and Lib Dems. USIP won this area very comfortably in 2010, and ultimately, along with the Coastal Plain and Upstate results, helped deliver SC as a whole to USIP.

Columbia

The capital and largest city of South Carolina, Columbia’s voting patterns can be broken down by its seven counties (six if Newberry County is excluded):

Richland County – Containing Columbia city itself, Richland, much like Charleston, would be a LD stronghold. While a small but significant number of LD and Labor voters would have tactically voted Tory to stop USIP winning the state, although the LDs would have a majority of the vote here still. A small Respect base would be present here, from the more progressive black population.

Calhoun County – A swinging county, this would have been won very comfortably by the Tories in 2010, with the Lib Dems in second place and Labor in third. Whilst not an indicator of who wins South Carolina, the results of Calhoun County often indicate which side has won overall.

Fairfield County – The county with the highest black population in the Columbia  metropolitan area, and the only one that Labor won. Even with their victory, Labor only won a plurality of the vote, being strongly challenged by effective Tory and LD campaigns.

Kershaw County – Largely rural, although still part of the Columbia metropolitan area, and with a majority of dwellings containing married couples with children (cue Frank Sinatra’s Love and Marriage), the area is very conservative, and voted USIP in 2010.

Lexington County – The strongest part of the Columbia metropolitan area for the Tories, very much a conservative family area. The Lib Dems struggled to hold second place in 2010 against USIP.

Saluda County – Less densely populated than Lexington County, and would have been won by USIP, much like Kershaw County on the other side of the metropolitan area.

Newberry County – Tory stronghold, despite a relatively high (17%) poverty rate, and significant black community. Labor finish second here, although the Lib Dem vote is increasing as the years go by.

Upstate South Carolina

Strong area for USIP, would have been a Tory bastion until the early-mid 2000s, owing to its high (for SC) number of Baptists. Like the Coastal Plain and Lowcountry, this area would strongly react to populist parties such as USIP, and would have been a stronghold for both the SRL and NF from 1945-1974.

Overall, an excellent effort from USIP, who have potential to grow even more in the coming years.    A more interesting trend to watch is the Tories retaining second party status. The Lib Dems have been the largest left-wing party here for a considerable amount of time, coming close to winning in 1997, and will likely retain this position, barring a crash in the LD vote.

Here's how South Carolina would have voted in elections from 1945 onwards:

1945: SRL
1950: SRL
1951: SRL
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: NF
1966: NF
1970: NF
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: USIP

EDIT: Changed 1950/51 results from Tory to SRL, and 1966 result from Tory to NF.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Georgia

The most populous of the Deep South states, the last to be restored to the Union post-Civil War, and a bastion of conservatism, particularly social and religious conservatism, through the years. Georgia is home to no less than 15 Fortune 500 companies’ headquarters, and has an economy largely based on agriculture and industry, although service industries are beginning to grow.

I’ll break down Georgia’s vote by its major cities, then by the regions that cover the rest of the state.

Atlanta

Atlanta city itself, with its high gay population, government offices and large number of communications workers, would strongly support Liberal Democrats, with the Green Party polling highly, although not high enough to cause a Brighton Pavilion result. Labor would have done extremely well here in the 1980s and prior. Atlanta’s high-tech infrastructure would be a result of LD county-level policies, the inner suburbs of Atlanta would also vote LD strongly, with the Tories a distant second.

Atlanta’s suburbs and exurbs, while generally favouring right-wingers, are not as uniformly in sync regarding their voting habits. Suburbs with high black populations would lean Labor overall, and exurbs would strongly favour USIP. The majority of Atlanta’s suburbia would strongly support the Tories though, especially in a year like 2010. Some suburbs, such as those Newt Gingrich used to represent as MP, would have voted USIP though, and USIP came second in a number of Atlanta suburbs.

Overall, the largest city by far in the South-eastern US, and taking into account its entire metropolitan area, would have been won by the Tories in 2010 quite comfortable (at least 55%), compared to the narrow LD victory in 2005.

Athens

Like Atlanta, Athens is a very progressive city, and would have a recent history of strongly voting LD, after returning a militant Labor MP in the 1980s. Athens hasn’t always been so progressive, however. Prior to the 1970s, the NF and SRL would have racked up large numbers of votes here, although the NF narrowly losing here in 1970 signalled the de-segregation of the local school district. Labor have won many elections here, and the Tories have never been competitive in this university city.

Macon

Macon itself, with its history as a hub for the railroad and textile industries, would have heavily voted Labor in the past, although this is somewhat weaker today. Despite this, Macon remains one of only a few strongholds for the Labor Party in Georgia and the South alike.

In the metropolitan area, the area around Robins Air Force Base would be hotly contested by the Tories and USIP, the latter winning here quite handily in 2010. The remainder of the Macon metropolitan area would be Tory strongholds or Labor-Tory swing areas.

Southwest Georgia

Fairly Baptist, not very affluent, and with a significant black community, Southwest Georgia would be slightly less right wing than other rural parts of Georgia, and would be the worst part of the state for the LDs. Labor have done well here in the past, as have the ANP, who often broke more than 15% of the vote here as recently as the 1990s. While the ANP vote has had a recent surge here since 2005, it is still nowhere near as large as it was in 1992 and prior to that. Overall, quite a tight Labor-Tory-USIP region today, with Labor doing well amongst blacks, USIP doing better amongst non-racist/ mildly racist whites and Baptists, and the Tories doing well with more affluent folk regardless of their race. All 3 parties were within a few percent of each other in 2010.

Central Georgia

The parts of Central Georgia that are not part of Macon’s metropolitan area are inhabited by a fairly mixed bag of Labor, Tory and USIP voting people, the Lib Dems doing poorly in this relatively poor area. Voting breakdown would be in groups similar to those outlined in Southwest Georgia. USIP would have won this region in 2010, on the back of a strong campaign and high turnout.

Augusta

A centre of medicine, biotechnology and military, with a majority black population, Augusta would be highly competitive between the Lib Dems and Labor, although the Tories would have increased their vote significantly in recent years, sometimes beating one of the left-wing parties into second place.

Columbus

A city with a significantly Baptist population, and large numbers of both black and white people, Columbus would have historically been a Labor-NF city, although the Tories have benefited significantly as the years have gone by. Like Southwest Georgia, the ANP would have a significant base here, although they never finish any higher than 4th place.

Savannah

Like Augusta, Savannah has a majority black population. Unlike Augusta, Savannah is a port city, Georgia’s primary port as a matter of fact. Labor used to be quite strong here, since the 1980s though, the Tories have become stronger, last losing Savannah in 2005 after winning it in the 1980s and 1992. Labor would still be the second party here though, and USIP would beat the Lib Dems for 3rd place.

Coastal Georgia

Largely rural and thinly populated, Coastal Georgia is a stronghold for USIP, having voted for them in large numbers since the 2001 election. Blacks would have, for the most part, tactically voted Tory, as opposed to Labor, to try and stop USIP, but to little avail.

Northern Georgia (includes NE Georgia and Blue Ridge Mountains)

Rural, white and conservative are 3 words that describe the rest of Northern Georgia that isn’t a part of Atlanta, Athens, or their metropolitan areas. USIP would have racked up at least 60% of the vote here, even higher in some counties. Southern Baptists in particular would have supported USIP, as a result to the Tories’ more progressive approach to social issues in recent years.

USIP did really well here, although some of this would have been influenced by prominent USIP figure Newt Gingrich, who was once a Conservative MP. Georgia for much of the 20th century has been dominated by the Conservative Party however, succeeding far-right offshoots of the Labor Party and the Labor Party itself.

Here's how Georgia would have voted in elections from 1945 onwards:

1945: SRL
1950: SRL
1951: SRL
1955: SRL
1959: Conservative, thanks to the Conservative Government’s national popularity.
1964: NF
1966: Labor, on the back of the party’s strength that year, and blacks, who largely voted Labor, being able to vote for the first time.
1970: NF, courtesy of high turnout in poor white areas.
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative, with USIP in 2nd place.
2010: USIP

EDIT: Still need to do most of Florida, should have it up in the next hour or so with the updated map.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Florida

Known for oranges, amusement parks, swamps, alligators, hurricanes and sports, not to mention its culture which draws from Americans of all ethnicities, Florida has something for everyone within its borders, except for those who like cold weather. Florida’s voting habits are as diverse and interesting as its demographics and history respectively, and are broken down by region and city alike:

Panhandle (excluding Tallahassee)

USIP’s best area in the state, with the Tories in a distant second. This owes to the area being largely rural, white and fairly Baptist. The ANP would get a significant yet small vote here, although the NF did well here as recently as 1979. Labor and the Lib Dems both do terribly here, and the former hasn’t been a serious contender here since 1945, even then they still lost. Labor would have got a large vote between 1966 and 1979 from the black community, although much of this has since bled to the Tories, especially since 2005.

Tallahassee

With almost half of its residents holding a college degree, Tallahassee, Florida’s capital, is strong for the Lib Dems, but is also home to a large number of impoverished areas, which favour Labor. The large number of government employees also favour the left-wing parties, the Lib Dems winning big here overall in 2010, and contributing to their statewide victory in 1997. Suburban areas would vote Tory, like a lot of other suburbs.

North Florida (excluding Jacksonville)

Another very conservative area, and USIP’s second best area in the state, despite losing to the Tories here. Quite similar to the Panhandle demographically, and home to a lot of tourist, agricultural and military workers, much like the Panhandle.

Jacksonville

The most popular city in Florida and the Southeast, when metropolitan areas are not included, although most of Jacksonville lives within the city limits. As a hub for transport, a deepwater port, and many industries including financial services. information services and insurance amongst others, Jacksonville would be more Tory-voting than Tallahassee, especially amongst those in the private sector and military workers. Labor and the Lib Dems would often compete for second place here, the latter achieving that position in 2010. The diverse religious population would result in a number of voting attitudes, Christians and Jews favouring the Tories, while other religions would have favoured Labor in the past, although they would favour the Tories now.

Central Florida (excluding Orlando and Tampa)

The fringes bordering North Florida would be friendly to USIP, although their vote goes south the further south you travel in the state, pun intended. Central Florida, otherwise known as the 1-4 Corridor, and home to a number of Florida’s prominent theme parks, the Kennedy Space Centre, and two Air Force bases (Patrick and Cape Canaveral), Central Florida that isn’t Orlando or Tampa would strongly support the Tories, with the Lib Dems in second and Labor in third.

Orlando

Known for Walt Disney World, Seaworld, Universal Studios Florida and Wet ‘n’ Wild Water Park, it’s quite obvious that Orlando has a significant tourism industry. Aside from tourism, Orlando is known for its hi-tech, entertainment and industrial output, represented by 150 companies from 20+ countries. The industries signify a large Tory and Lib Dem vote, although the large Latino community, particularly the Puerto Rican and Haitian communities, would provide Labor a base here. This would have kept Labor’s vote higher than the Floridian average from the 1980s onwards. Suburban Orlando would strongly favour the Tories.

Tampa

While Tampa’s suburbs and greater metropolitan area would strongly vote Tory, even in years like 1997, Tampa city itself is significantly more progressive, although the Tories can still win here in a good year such as 1959 or 1983. The gay community would support the Lib Dems by a significant margin, and the large black and Latino populations provide another base for Labor and Respect, the latter in recent years. Military, financial and insurance workers would favour the Tories, others favouring the Lib Dems. Overall, a 3-way contest in Tampa would have resulted in a narrow loss for the Tories, with Labor showing a strong third and USIP competing with the Green Party for fourth.

South Florida (excluding Miami, including Florida Keys)

The only part of the continental US with a tropical climate, South Florida that isn’t a part of Miami is more conservative than one may think, particularly with the strongly Tory (and in more recent years, USIP) supporting Cuban community. Tourism and agriculture dominate here as well, leaning towards another Tory-LD area, with the Tories coming on top in 2010 after losing in 2005.

The Florida Keys, on the other hand, would provide the Floridian Greens with their best result in the state.

Miami

The most Latino city in the Southeastern US, and containing a large portion of those of Cuban descent, Miami is perhaps the most cosmopolitan city in Florida and the South. As a major centre for commerce TV production, building, sea trade and tourism, and home to the headquarters of many companies, Miami’s voting patterns are as diverse as its population. Business workers would be split between Lib Dems and Tories, the Cuban community would favour Tories by a large amount (although the Lib Dems are gaining popularity amongst younger voters of Cuban descent), and Labor would benefit from non-Cuban Latinos, although the Tories and Lib Dems have amassed a large number of their votes in recent years too. Respect would have their biggest base in the South here, owing to large black and Latino populations alike.

The political future of Florida is a very interesting one, particularly with the USIP and Tory dominated Panhandle, pockets of strength for the Tories, Lib Dems and Labor (in descending order) in the south of the state, and the ever-swinging I-4 corridor.

Here's how Florida would have voted in elections from 1945 onwards:

1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: NF, thanks to high turnout in the Panhandle and splitting between the other parties.
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Liberal Democrat
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC + GA – USIP
Note – Yellow is now used for the Liberal Democrat states, I did not know the map could be coloured yellow when I started making the maps. Orange/brown will be reserved for nationalist parties, should they win any states.

Race so far:
Labor: 70
Conservative: 116
Liberal Democrat: 7
USIP: 25

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 18-50-4-22
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 7-48-22-19
South Carolina: 6-34-20-36
Georgia: 7-26-19-46
Florida: 11-45-21-20

EDIT: Fixed some colouring (changed yellow to gold)

Alabama and Mississippi WILL be here in a shorter time period, I promise!

[Donerail]

A few points (overall well done):

I don't know if the votes carry this out, but just from my personal experience and travels in the region, North Florida (possibly excluding Gainesville) is more USIP-friendly that the Panhandle.

Tallahassee/Jacksonville seem accurate, though Jax doesn't strike me as having a notably diverse religious population.

On Orlando, a good chunk of the suburbs (Kissimmee) are where the Latino population is; also, there's significant numbers of retirees in Volusia and lots of blacks in Daytona, which may be worth mentioning.

Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater is accurate, though it's interesting how fast you can go from the urban areas of St. Pete/Tampa to, say, Plant City.

As for your geographic divisions: it's not that simple. Florida around Lake O is seemingly closer to Jax than Miami, and South FL splits into Southeast and Southwest. Southwest, along the Gulf, is mostly wealthy older retirees, while Southeast is Dada/Broward/Palm Beach. Palm Beach/Broward, especially Broward, are more liberal than Miami, as Miami is where the bulk of the Cuban population lives. South Florida typically refers to just those 3 counties. Rich old in Naples have more in common with those across the state in Vero than the farmers between them. South Florid proper (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) would be heavily Lib Dem/Labor, while the Treasure Coast and SW Florida would be more Tory and the center part USIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but with Labor's more regulatory, nanny-state policies towards prominent industries in Kentucky, you would see a gradual move towards the right in the 1980s and 1990s.

The Blair and Brown governments were quite friendly to what little was left of the coal industry after what the Thatcher and Major governments did to it, and also spent a lot of money in the communities formerly dependent on it.

[Kitteh]

Coal country is only a part of KY though. KY is not WV (which would be solid Labour). My guess is that it would be a swing state with Western KY and the suburbs voting Tory and Eastern KY and the cities voting Labour.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

A few points (overall well done):

I don't know if the votes carry this out, but just from my personal experience and travels in the region, North Florida (possibly excluding Gainesville) is more USIP-friendly that the Panhandle.

Tallahassee/Jacksonville seem accurate, though Jax doesn't strike me as having a notably diverse religious population.

On Orlando, a good chunk of the suburbs (Kissimmee) are where the Latino population is; also, there's significant numbers of retirees in Volusia and lots of blacks in Daytona, which may be worth mentioning.

Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater is accurate, though it's interesting how fast you can go from the urban areas of St. Pete/Tampa to, say, Plant City.

As for your geographic divisions: it's not that simple. Florida around Lake O is seemingly closer to Jax than Miami, and South FL splits into Southeast and Southwest. Southwest, along the Gulf, is mostly wealthy older retirees, while Southeast is Dada/Broward/Palm Beach. Palm Beach/Broward, especially Broward, are more liberal than Miami, as Miami is where the bulk of the Cuban population lives. South Florida typically refers to just those 3 counties. Rich old in Naples have more in common with those across the state in Vero than the farmers between them. South Florid proper (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) would be heavily Lib Dem/Labor, while the Treasure Coast and SW Florida would be more Tory and the center part USIP.

Thanks for your feedback , and my analysis/breakdown stems from information I can find online, as I've never been to Florida (or anywhere in the US for that matter). Thanks in particular on information regarding the SW/SE division in the south of the state, and Jacksonville's religious diversity, the latter of which I added owing to the diversity of religious institutions found in the city.

but with Labor's more regulatory, nanny-state policies towards prominent industries in Kentucky, you would see a gradual move towards the right in the 1980s and 1990s.

The Blair and Brown governments were quite friendly to what little was left of the coal industry after what the Thatcher and Major governments did to it, and also spent a lot of money in the communities formerly dependent on it.

I was mainly referring to the other industries in KY, such as bourbon and tobacco.

Coal country is only a part of KY though. KY is not WV (which would be solid Labour). My guess is that it would be a swing state with Western KY and the suburbs voting Tory and Eastern KY and the cities voting Labour.

KY would significantly be out of Labor's reach now, although they would have done reasonably well in the early New Labor years, their stances on social issues and even the economy nowadays would turn off a lot of Kentuckians. Not to mention their support for a British-style NHS!

And a happy Thanksgiving to you all!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

While we're waiting for AL and MS, I'll post a few maps of how previous prominent elections would look so far:

1945 (SC & GA = SRL):

1959 (TN = SRL):

1983:

1997:

EDIT: Removed AK and HI from the 1945 map, as they would not have voted until the 1959 election.

[morgieb]

Some of the Labor percentages in the South seem too low IMO.

[Kitteh]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Labor would undoubtedly win the black vote. Them getting 6% in SC is ridiculous.

[Donerail]

A few points (overall well done):

I don't know if the votes carry this out, but just from my personal experience and travels in the region, North Florida (possibly excluding Gainesville) is more USIP-friendly that the Panhandle.

Tallahassee/Jacksonville seem accurate, though Jax doesn't strike me as having a notably diverse religious population.

On Orlando, a good chunk of the suburbs (Kissimmee) are where the Latino population is; also, there's significant numbers of retirees in Volusia and lots of blacks in Daytona, which may be worth mentioning.

Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater is accurate, though it's interesting how fast you can go from the urban areas of St. Pete/Tampa to, say, Plant City.

As for your geographic divisions: it's not that simple. Florida around Lake O is seemingly closer to Jax than Miami, and South FL splits into Southeast and Southwest. Southwest, along the Gulf, is mostly wealthy older retirees, while Southeast is Dada/Broward/Palm Beach. Palm Beach/Broward, especially Broward, are more liberal than Miami, as Miami is where the bulk of the Cuban population lives. South Florida typically refers to just those 3 counties. Rich old in Naples have more in common with those across the state in Vero than the farmers between them. South Florid proper (Dade/Broward/Palm Beach) would be heavily Lib Dem/Labor, while the Treasure Coast and SW Florida would be more Tory and the center part USIP.

Thanks for your feedback , and my analysis/breakdown stems from information I can find online, as I've never been to Florida (or anywhere in the US for that matter). Thanks in particular on information regarding the SW/SE division in the south of the state, and Jacksonville's religious diversity, the latter of which I added owing to the diversity of religious institutions found in the city.

Always happy to help. Jacksonville is your typical Southern city, maybe 40% Baptist, 20% Catholic, 10% Methodist, and 5% each Presbyterian and Episcopal, with the rest divided among a smattering of smaller denominations. I think I have a map of the rough regions Florida's divided into if I can find it somewhere.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

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Labor would undoubtedly win the black vote. Them getting 6% in SC is ridiculous.

Perhaps I did give Labor too low of a percentage, but you have to remember these three points:
 
1. As the Democrats are not a socialist party per se, an actual socialist (or former socialist now) party would do significantly worse in the US than in the UK, particularly in a region like the South. This is true on economic issues, although especially true on social issues, and Labor's desire for the federal government to have more power.

2. Regarding the vote share for the black population, you have to remember that as the Democrats have many factions, along with Obama being a Lib Dem rather than Labor politician, you have a lower share of the black vote voting Labor, particularly in an election like 2010, in an area already unfriendly to the party. You would also have a higher percentage of black Tories, as opposed to black Republicans.

3. Regarding SC in particular, you can see from the vote share that it was a Tory-USIP contest, and a significant number of voters, of all races, would have tactically voted Tory to try and stop USIP from winning the state. This is true to a lesser extent in GA. If USIP didn't exist, Labor would have easily broken double digits in NC, SC and GA.

When I review the whole project on its completion, I may amend the numbers (amongst some other small edits here and there), although the original work will be left up for comparison. And thank you all for your comments, it's great to see a large number of people interested in this!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

AL and MS, should be finished tomorrow or Monday, in the meantime, here's how I think the current US governors would fit into the UK political parties:

Alabama	Robert Bentley	USIP
Alaska	Sean Parnell	USIP
Arizona	Jan Brewer	SUP
Arkansas	Mike Beebe	Conservative
California	Jerry Brown	Liberal Democrat
Colorado	John Hickenlooper	Labor Liberal Democrat
Connecticut	Dan Malloy	Labor
Delaware	Jack Markell	Labor
Florida	Rick Scott	Conservative
Georgia	Nathan Deal	USIP
Hawaii	Neil Abercrombie	HD*
Idaho	Butch Otter	Conservative
Illinois	Pat Quinn	Labor
Indiana	Mitch Daniels (outgoing)	Conservative	Mike Pence (elect)	USIP
Iowa	Terry Branstad	Conservative
Kansas	Sam Brownback	USIP
Kentucky	Steve Beshear	Labor
Louisiana	Bobby Jindal	USIP
Maine	Paul LePage	Conservative
Maryland	Martin O'Malley	Labor
Massachusetts	Deval Patrick	Liberal Democrat
Michigan	Rick Snyder	Conservative
Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Labor
Mississippi	Phil Bryant	Conservative
Missouri	Jay Nixon	Labor
Montana	Brian Schweitzer (outgoing)	Conservative	Steve Bullock (elect)	Conservative
Nebraska	Dave Heineman	USIP
Nevada	Brian Sandoval	Conservative
New Hampshire	John Lynch (just left office)	Conservative	Maggie Hassan (recently inaugurated)	Labor
New Jersey	Chris Christie	Conservative
New Mexico	Susana Martinez	DUP
New York	Andrew Cuomo	Liberal Democrat
North Carolina	Bev Perdue (outgoing)	Labor	Pat McCrory (elect)	Conservative
North Dakota	Jack Dalrymple	Conservative
Ohio	John Kasich	Conservative
Oklahoma	Mary Fallin	Conservative
Oregon	John Kitzhaber	Liberal Democrat
Pennsylvania	Tom Corbett	Conservative
Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee	Conservative
South Carolina	Nikki Haley	USIP
South Dakota	Dennis Daugaard	Conservative
Texas	Rick Perry	TNP
Tennessee	Bill Haslam	Conservative
Utah	Gary Herbert	Conservative
Vermont	Peter Shumlin	Liberal Democrat Labor
Virginia	Bob McDonnell	Conservative
Washington	Christine Gregoire (outgoing)	Liberal Democrat	Jay Inslee (elect)	Liberal Democrat
West Virginia	Earl Ray Tomblin	Conservative
Wisconsin	Scott Walker	Conservative
Wyoming	Matt Mead	USIP

* - Mainly because I had Abercrombie listed as the HD leader in my party descriptions back in Page 1, however, I don't think Abercrombie is a separatist, so if he isn't, he'd easily be Labor or Liberal Democrat.

UPDATE: Added NH's new Governor, Maggie Hassan, to the list.

[Donerail]

Here you are. Basic geocultural regions of Florida.