US With British Parties

[LastVoter]

Here are my guesses at parties winning each election
1945: Labour
1950: Labour
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labour/Liberal Dem coalition results in the end of segregation
1966: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal Democrat minority government(Labour and Liberal Dems didn't have enough to form their own coalition, neither did Conservatives with USIP).
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
--- Labour is dead only elected in maybe 20 seats(Coal mining and a few minority majority areas that are especially poor and black, Hispanics vote Lib Dem), Reagan is elected Lib Dems become the second largest party.
1983: Conservative, almost 500 seats
1987: Conservative
1992: Lib Dem & Labour Coalition
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Lib Dem
2010: Conservative

Edit: Gave Lib dems a few months of government to prevent 30 year one party rule.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

American PM's:

1. George Washington (cross-bencher): 1789-1797
...
43. George W. Bush (BUF): 2001-2009

Hahaha NO. The BUF was gone by 1940 anyway. Both Bushes would be Tories in my book.

Here are my guesses at parties winning each election
1945: Labour
1950: Labour
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labour/Liberal Dem coalition results in the end of segregation
1966: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative minority government(Labour and Liberal Dems didn't have enough to form their own coalition)
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
--- Labour is dead only elected in maybe 20 seats(Coal mining and a few minority majority areas that are especially poor and black, Hispanics vote Lib Dem), Reagan is elected Lib Dems become the second largest party.
1983: Conservative, almost 500 seats
1987: Conservative
1992: Lib Dem & Labour Coalition
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Lib Dem
2010: Conservative

I assume you think the Tories would have won in '70, as they did in the UK IRL?

As to who did win in each year, we'll have to wait and see, although I don't think the Tories will win in '97 and '01.

Also, Happy New Year everyone!

[LastVoter]

American PM's:

1. George Washington (cross-bencher): 1789-1797
...
43. George W. Bush (BUF): 2001-2009

Hahaha NO. The BUF was gone by 1940 anyway. Both Bushes would be Tories in my book.

Here are my guesses at parties winning each election
1945: Labour
1950: Labour
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labour/Liberal Dem coalition results in the end of segregation
1966: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative minority government(Labour and Liberal Dems didn't have enough to form their own coalition)
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
--- Labour is dead only elected in maybe 20 seats(Coal mining and a few minority majority areas that are especially poor and black, Hispanics vote Lib Dem), Reagan is elected Lib Dems become the second largest party.
1983: Conservative, almost 500 seats
1987: Conservative
1992: Lib Dem & Labour Coalition
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Lib Dem
2010: Conservative

I assume you think the Tories would have won in '70, as they did in the UK IRL?

As to who did win in each year, we'll have to wait and see, although I don't think the Tories will win in '97 and '01.

Also, Happy New Year everyone!

I edit this a little bit, give Lib dems a few months of government to make it clear that Labour was dead after desegregation, and also to have Reagan ascend in 1974 and have uninterrupted rule for a while.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my guesses at parties winning each election
1945: Labour
1950: Labour
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labour/Liberal Dem coalition results in the end of segregation
1966: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal Democrat minority government(Labour and Liberal Dems didn't have enough to form their own coalition, neither did Conservatives with USIP).
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
--- Labour is dead only elected in maybe 20 seats(Coal mining and a few minority majority areas that are especially poor and black, Hispanics vote Lib Dem), Reagan is elected Lib Dems become the second largest party.
1983: Conservative, almost 500 seats
1987: Conservative
1992: Lib Dem & Labour Coalition
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Lib Dem
2010: Conservative

Edit: Gave Lib dems a few months of government to prevent 30 year one party rule.

Just saw your edits, sounds good, although two things:

1. I don't think USIP would have existed in the 1970s, the ANP's predecessor party, the NF, would have done well in some areas though.
2. Just thought I'd let you know, prior to 1988 the Liberal Democrats were simply the Liberal Party, although for much of the 1980s they were in alliance with another party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), who did merge with the Liberals to form the Lib Dems.

[You kip if you want to...]

Here are my guesses at parties winning each election
1945: Labour
1950: Labour
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labour/Liberal Dem coalition results in the end of segregation
1966: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal Democrat minority government(Labour and Liberal Dems didn't have enough to form their own coalition, neither did Conservatives with USIP).
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
--- Labour is dead only elected in maybe 20 seats(Coal mining and a few minority majority areas that are especially poor and black, Hispanics vote Lib Dem), Reagan is elected Lib Dems become the second largest party.
1983: Conservative, almost 500 seats
1987: Conservative
1992: Lib Dem & Labour Coalition
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Lib Dem
2010: Conservative

Edit: Gave Lib dems a few months of government to prevent 30 year one party rule.

Blair Labour would've found great success in the States, surely.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my guesses at parties winning each election
1945: Labour
1950: Labour
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labour/Liberal Dem coalition results in the end of segregation
1966: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal Democrat minority government(Labour and Liberal Dems didn't have enough to form their own coalition, neither did Conservatives with USIP).
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
--- Labour is dead only elected in maybe 20 seats(Coal mining and a few minority majority areas that are especially poor and black, Hispanics vote Lib Dem), Reagan is elected Lib Dems become the second largest party.
1983: Conservative, almost 500 seats
1987: Conservative
1992: Lib Dem & Labour Coalition
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Lib Dem
2010: Conservative

Edit: Gave Lib dems a few months of government to prevent 30 year one party rule.

Blair Labour would've found great success in the States, surely.

I agree, which is why they'll most likely win government in 1997-2005, with the Lib Dems doing well in 2005. Again, we've still got 25 states to go, but Labor should win 1997-2005, especially if you look at the 1997 map so far:

1997:

[Gass3268]

Is the United States a part of the United Kingdom in this scenario or a separate entity with the equivalencies of British parties?

Also I hope you get better from your accident and that you are able to continue!  

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Is the United States a part of the United Kingdom in this scenario or a separate entity with the equivalencies of British parties?

Also I hope you get better from your accident and that you are able to continue!  

The USA is still the USA, just with equivalents of British political parties, re-tooled slightly for the USA, as I explained in the first post. Although a USA as a part of the UK scenario would be very interesting, especially with an American Party.

The state-by-state breakdown is for President, a House of Commons breakdown, so to speak, may be conducted on completion of each state's Presidential voting record. In the event of a "hung electoral college", so to speak, the Presidential vote goes to the parties and their Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates.

Example: The EC results in 247 Conservative, 215 Labor, 41 Liberal Democrat and 35 USIP EVs. No party has a majority, so the President would be chosen by negotiations between the parties. The incumbent President gets the first go at claiming the Presidency when the seat is filled. In the event of an open Presidential seat, the party with the most EVs gets the first go.

This is similar to party negotiations to a hung parliament in the Westminster system, except for a President, not a government. If no agreement can be reached by the parties, the President and Vice-President would be elected by the Congress (or should I say Parliament), as in real life.

UPDATE: In the event of an agreement between parties regarding an Electoral College with no majority, the Presidency and Vice-Presidency may be held by different parties. Going back to my example of a hung Electoral College, if, say the Tories and USIP make an agreement, the Tory candidate for President becomes President, whilst the USIP candidate for Vice-President could become Vice-President.

The Speaker of the House of Commons, the renamed House of Representatives, is still elected in the same manner that the Speaker is elected in the US. The Senate remains intact, as I cannot see the US having a house of hereditary peers, like the UK House of Lords.

In a way, I have combined elements of the British and American political systems into a hybrid system, so to speak.

And I will finish this, so stay tuned!

[Gass3268]

How many ridings would each state that you have currently listed have? I want to make maps?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

How many ridings would each state that you have currently listed have? I want to make maps?

Average population of US House district: 646,946
Average population of English constituency (using England's average, as Wales has significantly less people per constituency than Scotland, England and NI): 96,622

English constituencies are roughly 6.7 times larger than US districts, although if applied to the US, this would result in almost 3,000 constituencies, and would be extremely time consuming to make maps of. So, the UK number of 650 constituencies can be used, or just short of 1.5x the number of US districts, 435.

Here is the map of 650 constituencies, using the 1.5x multiplier for each state and rounding where necessary:

Note: Nebraska would have 4 constituencies, and Maine 3 constituencies, the map won't let me alter those states though. Also, I coloured some states in so their numbers can be easily seen.

[Gass3268]

You could use Lewis Trondheim's 100,000 district maps:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149250.0

It would only be about 4,000 more people on average then a English constituency.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

You could use Lewis Trondheim's 100,000 district maps:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149250.0

It would only be about 4,000 more people on average then a English constituency.

Thanks for that, sounds like a good idea, will need to get permission from the author of the maps though.

[Gass3268]

You could use Lewis Trondheim's 100,000 district maps:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=149250.0

It would only be about 4,000 more people on average then a English constituency.

Thanks for that, sounds like a good idea, will need to get permission from the author of the maps though.

Of course, but I don't think he'd care. He'd probably like the fact that you used them.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

My apologies for the LONG delay, but here, at last, is Indiana and Ohio!

Indiana

The smallest state in terms of area west of the Appalachians, and settled by people from the northeastern and upper southern states, the Hoosier State is known for the production of steel, pharmaceuticals, industrial machinery, corn, soybeans, tobacco, melons, grapes, furniture and much more. Indiana is also famous for motor racing, especially the Indianapolis 500, the birthplace of high school basketball, and their NFL rivalry with Baltimore.

Indiana’s voting patterns have been broken down according to the map in this link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IndianaRegions.png

Indianapolis Metropolitan Area

Indianapolis itself, home to the American Legion’s headquarters and inside Marion County, has recently overtaken Detroit as the largest city in the Midwest, and is the major hub, along with Gary in the state’s northwest, of Indiana’s black community. Up until the Labor government’s election in 1997, Indianapolis as a whole was one of the strongest metropolitan areas for the Tories in the entire nation, although Marion County has since been held by Labor, with a good vote for the Lib Dems in 2005, before retracting in 2010. The Tories would finish second to Labor here in 2010.

Indianapolis’ suburbs remain strong Tory areas to this day, with Hamilton County being the strongest county for the Lib Dems, who have won it numerous times over the years, most recently in 2005. Madison County would go to whoever won the state, and was won in 2010 by the Tories with a wide margin. The remaining counties would be reliably Tory, even in 1945 and 1997 style elections.

Central Indiana

Central Indiana that isn’t Indianapolis is dominated by agriculture, and is largely a Tory area. USIP could be competitive here in 2015, if they can broaden their appeal outside of the South and Southern Protestants, particularly Baptists.

Southern Indiana

Clark, Floyd and Harrison counties are part of the Louisville metropolitan area, which is mainly in Kentucky. These counties are largely Tory voting, although Labor can do well in their good years.

The remainder of the region is largely Tory voting, with the exceptions of Lib Dem voting Bloomington, and bellwether Vigo County.   

Southwest Indiana

Southwest Indiana, the 11 counties in the southwestern corner of Indiana adjacent to Illinois and Kentucky, is largely a manufacturing area, and containing the city of Evansville, generally votes Tory overall, although can be broken down further, as the following reveals:

Evansville is an important economic centre, and was historically known for refrigerator manufacturing, in addition to its strong health care, medical science, and the headquarters for numerous companies, including energy company Vectren. Evansville is a Labor-Tory swing city, and generally goes to whoever wins Indiana as a whole.

The other counties bordering Kentucky, as far east as Perry County, are largely manufacturing bases, even today, providing a strong base for Labor, helping to deliver the region to Labor in 1997 and 2001.

Northwest Indiana

The five counties that contain and surround the city of Gary, which is an extension of the Chicago metropolitan area, votes Labor as a whole, Gary in particular being the strongest area for the Labor party in the state. The Tories do fairly well in the counties south of Gary, though.

Northern Indiana

Fort Wayne, Indiana’s second city, is home to four denominations of Christianity in the US, including the American Association of Lutheran Churches. Fort Wayne is another old manufacturing centre, but has since had a significant expansion of its economy into other sectors. Overall, Fort Wayne votes Tory, even in their bad years, with Labor firmly in 2nd and the Lib Dems way behind in 3rd.

The remainder of Northern Indiana is dominated economically by manufacturing and agriculture, much like Central Indiana, and is quite rural. Very solid for the Tories, much like the agricultural areas in rural North Yorkshire. USIP would also do well here for Indiana standards, finishing ahead of the Lib Dems but behind Labor.

While parts of Indiana are fertile territory for USIP, particularly in local elections in 2010 and beyond, they haven’t made too much of an impact here at the federal level, with the exception of some agricultural areas. Indiana is by-and-large a Conservative stronghold, barring years such as 1945 and 1997.

Here’s how Indiana would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Labor
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

Ohio is in the next post, so don't navigate away!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Ohio

Named after the Iroquois word for great river, Ohio, as all of you know, is a crucial state in elections, thanks to its large population and swing nature, and would continue to be an important state if the US used British political parties. The Buckeye State has been affected by the loss of manufacturing jobs, in common with the remainder of the Rust Belt, although was ranked No. 2, out of all the states, in 2010 for best business climate by Site Selection magazine. Ohio is also home to both urban progressives and rural conservatives alike.

Ohio’s voting habits are broken down by the regions on this map: http://www.uakron.edu/dotAsset/2108175.jpg

Columbus and Central Ohio

Home to the Keatons, the politically divided family from TV’s Family Ties, Columbus is also the capital of the Buckeye State. Aside from the usual services found in a state capital, Columbus is also in the Top 20 educated cities in the USA, home to two public colleges, a number of private colleges, and a large gay community. Columbus city, which makes up most of Franklin County, would be strong for Labor, although the Lib Dems would also make an excellent showing in 2005 and 2010, and the Tories would finish third. The Green Party would also show a strong fourth in Franklin County.

Columbus’ suburbs, in the tradition of most other suburbs in the US, are strongholds for the Tories, although the Lib Dems are strong in Delaware County, which they would have won numerous occasions over the years, such as February 1974 and 1997, to name two. The remainder of Central Ohio is largely rural Tory-voting areas, with Labor firmly second.

Cleveland and Northeast Ohio

Cleveland is a classic example of a Rust Belt city – Strong, historical manufacturing base, high black population since the Great Migration days, and despite a more diversified economy, has an unemployment rate of 7.8%, tied with Dayton and second to Toledo. Cleveland would be home to a strong Labor machine, while not as powerful as Chicago’s, is still very strong, helping to keep Cleveland safe Labor.

As for the remainder of Greater Cleveland, which includes Akron, this metropolitan area is more Labor leaning than the Columbus metropolitan area. Geauga and Medina Counties would be the Tories’ reliable strongholds in the region, although Lake County would have been won by the Tories in 2010, and be a swing county. The Lib Dems would poll well in Geauga County, as well as parts of Cleveland.

NE Ohio that isn’t a part of Greater Cleveland votes Labor overall, with the exception of 1983-style elections, and would have voted Labor fairly reliably (somewhere in the low 50s %wise) in 2010, with the vast majority of the remaining vote being Tory, and the Lib Dems not doing well.

Southeast Ohio

Southeast counties of Ohio, or the Appalachian Plateaux, are home to a significant amount of coal mining, much like neighbouring West Virginia. While Labor can still get MPs elected from this region, at the presidential level, they are less competitive against the Conservatives, who won in the eastern parts of this region in both 2005 and 2010.

Athens County, containing Athens, a college town, is easily won by the Lib Dems, although with the way the Lib Dems are currently polling, will probably go back to Labor in 2015. The remainder of SE Ohio is largely rural and Tory voting.

Cincinnati and Southwest Ohio

Hamilton County, which contains Cincinnati itself. is a Labor-Tory bellwether, and while won by the Tories in 2010, was a narrower win than in 1979-1997. Home to Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s,  and a large number of other corporations, Cincinnati is a major financial hub in Ohio, providing a strong base for Tories and Lib Dems alike, the latter getting strong support around the University of Cincinnati. Cincinnati is also famous for its sporting teams, having the USA’s first full-time paid fire department, and for historically being a major transport hub on the railroads. Labor is the largest party in Cincinnati itself.

Cincinnati’s metropolitan area votes Tory strongly, with the Lib Dems coming second in Warren and Butler Counties. Dayton, Ohio’s 6th city, has an economy dominated by the healthcare, defence and aerospace industries, notably the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, and in 2010 was named one of the best places in the US for college graduates to get a job. Like Cincinnati, Dayton has strengths for all 3 major parties, and Montgomery County tends to follow the mood of a nation as a whole, the Tories winning in 2010, partly thanks to a higher than normal Lib Dem vote.

The remainder of SW Ohio, as you may have guessed, is more Tory-voting territory.

Toledo and Northwest Ohio

Toledo, which was originally in Michigan Territory, is Ohio’s 4th city, and was a key railway hub in the latter half of the 19th century, along with its manufacturing backbone. Now quite a rusty city, so to speak, Toledo is another Labor-voting city, second to Cleveland amongst Ohio’s major cities.

Most of NW Ohio is fairly working class and still has a large manufacturing base, meaning Labor would have done well here in years gone by, although since the 1960s and 1970s the Tories have begun to appeal more to this demographic. The counties immediately south and southeast of Toledo are more Labor-leaning, although are very swingy, and were won by the Tories in 2010.

Ohio is quite the populous, demographically diverse state, and will most likely remain extremely competitive for years to come. A perfect bellwether since 1945, Ohio was won by the Tories by a comfortable margin in 2010, although with a smaller margin than most of their previous victories.

Here’s how Ohio would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Labor
October 1974: Labor
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Labor
2001: Labor
2005: Labor
2010: Conservative

And now, the updated map and vote shares:

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS & AR – USIP

Race so far:
Labor: 90
Conservative: 163
Liberal Democrat: 7
USIP: 46

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9

Next up: Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota!

[Sol]

Awesome!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Awesome!

Glad you're enjoying it!

Michigan

Named after the French form of the Ojibwa word, mishigamaa, or large water/lake, Michigan is known for any location inside its borders never being more than 6 miles from a water source. Michigan is also known for its manufacturing industry, which isn’t as strong as it used to be, its natural resources in the Upper Peninsula, and for bordering every Great Lake, sans Lake Ontario.

Michigan’s Lower Peninsula is broken down into regions like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Michigan_Lower_Peninsula_Regions.png

Metro Detroit and SE Michigan

Detroit, as you most likely guessed, is a Labor stronghold, and one of their best cities in the whole country, along with Chicago, some of NYC’s boroughs, and Washington DC. Known for an auto industry that isn’t as dominant as it once was, and for its music scene, Detroit would also be a good area for the Respect Party, who hold a constituency or two in the area. Detroit and Wayne County, however, are largely Labor areas, in parts the Lib Dems would outpoll the Tories, such as university and wealthier areas. The ANP would get some votes from poorer whites in Detroit as well.

Moving out of Wayne County, Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan, was a stronghold for the Lib Dems, especially in 2005 and 2010, although there is a good chance of a Labor comeback in 2015. Oakland and Macomb Counties were Tory strongholds right up until 1997, and while both fell to the Tories in 2010, the Lib Dems and Labor have held a lot of the post-1997 vote here respectively. Livingston County is solidly Tory, with the Lib Dems second, the other, less populated counties in this region would be quite swingy, although are more of an indication of the national winner, not the winner of Michigan.

Mid-Michigan

Mid-Michigan’s voting habits are divided into three sub-sections, as shown below:

Thumb

Named for looking like the thumb in the mitten that is the Lower Peninsula, Michigan’s Thumb generally votes Tory, although goes to Labor in their better years.

Flint and the Tri-Cities

Flint, another manufacturing city hit by declining economic conditions from the 1960s onwards, would be a reliable stronghold for Labor, the Tories in a far-distant second. The Tri-Cities, namely Saginaw, Bay City and Midland, are more competitive, with the Lib Dems having a strong base in Midland against the Tories, who compete with Labor in Saginaw and Bay City.   

Lansing and surrounding counties

Lansing, the capital of Michigan, and home to the University of Michigan, is one of the best cities for the Lib Dems and Greens alike in the country, although Labor should re-gain some of the support from the former at the next election. The Tories tend to come second against the dominant left party, which was Labor until the 1997 election. Lansing would have returned militant Labor MPs in the 1980s.

The more rural counties in this area are known for agriculture, and are Labor-Tory contests, ranging from strong Labor to strong Tory, depending on the county and election.

Western Michigan

Home to a significant number of manufacturing jobs, Western Michigan’s main centre is the city of Grand Rapids, which tends to vote Labor itself, although is surrounded by Tory-voting suburbs. The remainder of this region would vote Tory for the most part, although you would see a few scant USIP votes amongst some socially conservative people out here. The Lib Dems would be almost non-existent out here, aside from Kalamazoo and parts of the Grand Rapids metropolitan area.

Northern Michigan

Traverse City, a large tourist attraction on the shores of Lake Michigan, and named one of the Top 10 places to retire in 2012 by U.S. News, tends to vote Tory, barring 1997-style years, much like the rest of the region, which votes overall similarly to Western Michigan.

Upper Peninsula

Known for its copper mines, which attracted large numbers of people from the Nordic countries in the 19th century, the Upper Peninsula still has significant mining operations, although logging and tourism have since sprung up in the regional economy. While Labor would have done very well here from their founding onwards, the Tories have been slowly gaining traction since the 1970s, and are now the largest party in the UP by far.

While Michigan has potential to be won by the Tories, voting with the nation from 1955-1987, it is by-and-large a Labor-leaning state, especially from the 1990s onwards. The Lib Dems have their strongholds here too, but are certainly no threat to Labor here, especially in Detroit.

Here’s how Michigan would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Labor
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Labor
October 1974: Labor
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Labor
1997: Labor
2001: Labor
2005: Labor
2010: Labor

Wisconsin

Dairy products galore originate rom the Badger State, especially cheese. Wisconsin is bounded by two lakes, had a border dispute with Michigan resolved as recently as the 1930s, and almost half its area is covered in forest, Wisconsin was also a top destination for German and Polish immigrants back in the 19th century, and more recently, was known in the political sphere for only the third gubernatorial recall election in US history, and the first where the incumbent governor was not defeated.

Wisconsin’s voting patterns are broken down by this map:
http://wihiv.wisc.edu/communityplanning/images/region_map.jpg

Milwaukee and SE Wisconsin

Home to the Miller brewery, the second largest brewery in the US, the headquarters of Harley-Davidson, as well as being the setting for 1950s TV period pieces Happy Days and Laverne and Shirley, Milwaukee is the largest city in Wisconsin, largely comprised of Catholics and Lutherans (81% from a 2000 study), a black plurality population, and largely a manufacturing city in years gone by, moving towards managerial, health and service jobs in more recent times. Milwaukee city itself is yet another Midwestern Labor stronghold, with Respect doing well in some poorer black and Latino neighbourhoods, perhaps some ANP votes in poorer white communities, and a high Lib Dem and Green vote from the large student and professional population in the city.

Milwaukee’s suburbs are quite a different picture, with the counties west and north of the city being the Tories’ best areas in the state, the Lib Dems in a distant second. South of Milwaukee is more competitive territory, including Labor-leaning Kenosha, and Labor-Tory swing areas that, like counties south of Detroit in Michigan, tend to be more reflective of the national rather than the state mood.

Green Bay and NE Wisconsin

Green Bay, Wisconsin’s 3rd city, is an industrial city known for paper, meatpacking and its port. It is also the smallest city to host a professional sports team, namely the NFL’s Green Bay Packers. Green Bay also has a large Catholic population, which would have made it a Labor stronghold in years gone by, although the Tories have gotten stronger here over the years, and Brown County often votes Tory outside of 1945 and 1997 style elections. The rest of the region is fairly solid Tory, although goes to Labor in landslides, and Labor did well to win this region in 2005. Menominee County, a Native American reservation, is one of Labor’s best counties in the country.

Madison and Southern Wisconsin

Madison, the capital of Wisconsin, is also the 2nd city of Wisconsin, and aside from the usual industries found in a capital city, was ranked second in terms of education by Forbes magazine in 2007. While a Labor-voting city in the past, since the 1970s and 1980s it has become very strong for the Liberals/Lib Dems, and more recently, the Greens.

Outside of Madison, Southern Wisconsin tends to be relatively robustly Labor, although the region can be good for the Tories, especially in years like 1983.

Northern Wisconsin

Northern Wisconsin is another region that goes with the national winner, and is key for the Tories to win if they are to win the state. The Tories did win here overall in 2010, although not as strong as in 1979-1992.

Western Wisconsin

The part of Wisconsin with the largest percentage of people of Nordic ancestry, Western Wisconsin contains the city of Eau Claire, another manufacturing city of yore, which would help build Labor’s overall margin in this region. Eau Claire has received some more Lib Dem and Tory votes over the past 20-30 years, though. Outside of Eau Claire the Tories did well, particularly in communter belt areas of Minnesota’s Twin Cities, although they still marginally lost the region, thanks to good turnout from Labor.

Overall, Wisconsin was a state the Tories were disappointed to lose in 2010, along with the likes of Pennsylvania and Delaware. Although the Tories received good margins in the Milwaukee suburbs and the northeastern and northern parts of the state, these were cancelled out by a fairly weak result in Western Wisconsin for the party, a lower than expected Lib Dem vote, and strong Labor turnout in Milwaukee city and Southern Wisconsin.

Here’s how Wisconsin would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Labor, very narrowly
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Labor
October 1974: Labor
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Labor
1997: Labor
2001: Labor
2005: Labor
2010: Labor

Minnesota and the updated map/vote shares are in the next post, y'all don't look away now!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Minnesota

Named for the Dakota word for sky-tinted water, Minnesota is known for its lakes, forests and parks, along with high scores in voter turnout, education and health. Dominated by the Twin Cities of Minneapolis, the North Star State was historically known for its logging, agriculture and mining, but has been transformed over the years into a processing centre, although agriculture remains important to the Minnesota economy.

Twin Cities Metropolitan Area

Home to nearly 60% of Minnesota’s population, Minneapolis and St. Paul are both strongholds for the left, being home to the 2nd largest economy in the Midwest. The Twin Cities would have been staunchly Labor until the 1980s and 1990s, when the Lib Dems began to emerge and eventually supersede Labor as the dominant party, pushing the Tories into third in 1997, although the Tories came second in 2010.

The suburbs of the Twin Cities are either Tory-Labor or Tory-Lib Dem areas, with the Tories’ result in 2010 the best result in quite some time here, and the Lib Dems doing best in the areas south and east of St. Paul.

Iron Range

Very much a Labor region, the Iron Range, known for its iron mining operations, would have voted Labor since the party’s inception, and would have been very resistant to the advent of New Labor in the 1990s. Tories finish a distant second here, with the Lib Dems an even more distant third.

Central Minnesota

Central Minnesota has quite a Catholic tradition, and is a fairly rare example of a rural area favouring Labor, although the Tories do well here too, especially in later years. Labor winning here helped keep Minnesota Labor in the 1955 and 1959 elections.

Southeast Minnesota

Rochester is a Lib Dem-Tory swing city, and is home to the not-for-profit Mayo Clinic and one of IBM’s manufacturing centres. The Lib Dems would have won here in 2010, continuing the momentum towards them since 1997, winning with a large margin in 2010. The remainder of SE Minnesota would generally vote Tory, although Labor and the Lib Dems do well from time to time.

Remainder of rural Minnesota

The rest of Minnesota which does not fit any of the other regions I have already mentioned leans Tory overall, although has more of a Labor bend to it than most other rural areas in the US, partly because of its Nordic history, and Labor would have held a lot of their post-1997 vote here.

Overall, Minnesota is generally a good state for Labor, although it has competitive and independent streaks, and other parties have done well here from time to time. 2010 was an extremely competitive year for all three major parties in Minnesota, but the Liberal Democrats, on the back of an anti-incumbent wave, in conjunction with continuing anti-Iraq War sentiment and strong turnout in the Twin Cities and Rochester, managed to pull off a narrow win, although all of the big 3 parties polled over 30%, and Labor have a good chance of regaining Minnesota in 2015.

Here’s how Minnesota would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Labor
1955: Labor
1959: Labor
1964: Labor
1966: Labor
1970: Labor, narrowly
February 1974: Labor, with a strong Liberal vote.
October 1974: Labor
1979: Labor, in one of their narrowest victories of the year.
1983: Conservative, partly thanks to vote splitting between Labor and the Alliance.
1987: Conservative
1992: Labor
1997: Labor
2001: Labor
2005: Labor, with the Lib Dems surging into second.
2010: Liberal Democrat, in the most competitive race in Minnesotan political history from 1945 onwards.

And now, the updated map and vote shares:

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS & AR – USIP

Race so far:
Labor: 116
Conservative: 163
Liberal Democrat: 17
USIP: 46

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35

Next up, the Dakotas!

[Gass3268]

I love this! When I get my computer back I'll give some of my opinions on your last set of states.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I love this! When I get my computer back I'll give some of my opinions on your last set of states.

Thank you, looking forward to hearing them!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

And now, here's the Dakotas:

North Dakota

Simultaneously made a state on the same day as South Dakota, back on the 2nd of November 1889, North Dakota boasted the country’s lowest unemployment rate in September 2010, at 3.7%. North Dakota has also recorded a budget surplus every year since the financial crisis of 2008, thanks to its strong oil, coal and agriculture industries, particularly its barley, wheat, oilseed, soybean and oat crops. North Dakota also has both the highest number of churches per capita and highest percentage of church attendees, largely Lutheran and Catholic.

North Dakota’s voting habits are split between its 3 major cities and its rural areas.

Bismarck

Bismarck, North Dakota’s capital and second most populous city, is an important retail hub for parts of both Dakotas, as well as being an important medical centre. Bismarck is largely a Tory-Lib Dem city, only going to the latter in bad years for the Tories and/or good years for the Lib Dems, such as February 1974 and 1997.

Fargo

The largest city in North Dakota by far, Fargo is home to North Dakota State University, along with being a hub for retail and healthcare, much like Bismarck. Fargo would lean Tory overall and be a Tory-Lib Dem city, although have more of a Lib Dem bend than Bismarck.

Grand Forks

An agricultural, manufacturing hub, in addition to housing the University of North Dakota, Grand Forks would have a higher Labor vote than Bismarck or Fargo, and would be the most left-leaning of Bismarck, Fargo and itself, the Lib Dems winning here since 1997, Tories before that.

Rural North Dakota

Native American areas, such as Rolette and Sioux Counties, would be Labor’s strongest areas in North Dakota by far. Most of rural North Dakota, however, is strong to very strong for the Tories. USIP would get a few votes here and there, although mainly as a protest vote, and are no threat to the Tories here.

All in all, North Dakota is very safe for the Conservatives, even in years such as 1945 and 1997, with the main left-wing opposition a long way behind. The Lib Dems are by far the second party here, coming their closest to winning in 1997, and the Liberals, their predecessors, did well in both 1974 elections.

Here’s how North Dakota would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

South Dakota

Bisected in half by the Missouri River, and containing Mount Rushmore, South Dakota is dominated by agriculture, much like North Dakota, although South Dakota also has more national parks, ranching activity (particularly in the western part of the state), and has more Methodists and less Lutherans and Catholics, although Lutherans and Catholics combined still form a majority of South Dakota’s population.

Like North Dakota, South Dakota’s voting habits are split between its 3 major cities and its rural areas.

Pierre

Pierre, the capital of South Dakota, is the 2nd smallest state capital by population, after Montpelier, VT. Another Tory-Lib Dem city, as cities in the Dakotas tend to be, the Tories would have won here very comfortably in 2010, although the Lib Dems did very well in 1997.

Sioux Falls

The largest city in South Dakota, Sioux Falls is home to a number of financial companies and healthcare facilities, and is a large retail hub for large parts of the surrounding area. Tends to vote Tory, although has gone Lib Dem before, such as in 1997, but even then, it was only a narrow victory and did not upset the overall Tory hold in South Dakota.   

Rapid City

South Dakota’s second city, Rapid City is a hub for mining, manufacturing, tourism (Mount Rushmore is a stones’ throw away) and healthcare. Rapid City would have a larger Labor vote than Pierre or Sioux Falls, thanks to a larger Native American population, although Rapid City is still very much a Tory-Lib Dem city, with the Tories almost always getting a decent majority of the vote, even in bad years.

Rural South Dakota

As in North Dakota, areas with a high Native American population such as Shannon County, would largely vote Labor. The majority of rural South Dakota votes Tory though, peaking in the western parts of the state, where USIP would get their best vote as well.

South Dakota tends to vote very similarly to its northern counterpart, although it came closer to being lost to the Liberals in February 1974, and the Lib Dems did better here in 1997 as well.

Here’s how South Dakota would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

And here’s the updated map and vote shares:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS & AR – USIP

Race so far:
Labor: 116
Conservative: 169
Liberal Democrat: 17
USIP: 46

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22

Next up, Iowa and Nebraska, but before that, some special maps

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

First, an update of what I call the "No USIP" map:

Now, updates of the 1945, 1959, 1983 and 1997 maps:

1945 (Green = SRL)

1959 (Green = SRL)

1983

1997

EDIT: Removed AK and HI from the 1945 map, as they would not have voted until the 1959 election.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here's Iowa and Nebraska, and remember, all comments and feedback are welcome, especially as I approach Texas.

Iowa

Starting out as a part of New France, and bearing the nickname of The Food Capital of the World, thanks to its large agricultural output, Iowa is also known for being one of the safest states to live in, according to a 2009 study, and its economy, while still having large agricultural output, has diversified around biotechonology, green energy and financial services, amongst other industries. Iowa is also the only state to have both its eastern and western borders formed by rivers, and is largely Protestant (mainly Lutheran and Methodist) and Catholic regarding religion.

Iowa’s voting patterns are broken down by the regions on this map:
http://www.iowaahec.org/Iowa%20Regional%20Map%20just%20regions%20revised%20031912.jpg

Greater Des Moines and Central Iowa

Des Moines, named after the French term “of the monks”, is the capital and largest city in Iowa, and home to metal band Slipknot, is a large insurance and financial hub, and home to the Iowa caucuses. Des Moines city has bases for all big 3 parties, Labor amongst minorities and the working class, the Lib Dems amongst more educated and affluent left-wingers, and the Tories amongst financial workers. The 2010 result in Des Moines city was very close, and resulted in a very narrow Labor win, with the Tories and Lib Dems just behind, all three parties were within 2% of each other.

Des Moines’ suburbs range from solid Tory to solid Lib Dem to Labor/Lib Dem-Tory areas, the Lib Dems doing better in northern and western areas, and Labor doing better in southern and eastern areas. The Tories did very well here in 2010, particularly in Tory-Labor areas, as did the Lib Dems, although the Lib Dems came third in a number of eastern and southern suburbs.

Southwestern Iowa

A very rural area, Southwestern Iowa is largely a Labor-Tory contest, with the Tories significantly ahead most years, including 2010, although Labor swept the region in 1997 and 2001, along with their previous landslides.

Southeastern Iowa and the Quad Cities

Davenport, the largest of any of the Quad Cities in either Iowa or Illinois, and Iowa’s 3rd city. Davenport is headquarters to department store Von Maur, and has a large manufacturing sector, common for the Quad Cities area. Davenport also has a higher than average black and Latino population for the state of Iowa, and overall would be a Labor-voting city.

Cedar Rapids, Iowa’s 2nd city, is also found in this region, and is known for its grain processing facilities, and for being the home to America’s longest standing mosque. Like Davenport, Cedar Rapids votes Labor, the two only go Tory in 1983-style years. Johnson County, containing some Cedar Rapids suburbs, provides the Lib Dems with their best county in Iowa, the Tories coming second here in 2010.

The remainder of SE Iowa isn’t as conservative as most rural areas in the US, and has more of a Labor lean to it than SW Iowa, although the Tories still narrowly won here in 2010.

Northeastern Iowa

Very much a rural area, Labor would do better here than in other parts of rural Iowa, winning here comfortably in the last Labor government, and the region was hotly contested in 2010, with Labor pulling off a narrow victory, although the Tories did better here than they did in 1992. The Lib Dems would largely be a non-entity here.

Northwestern Iowa and Sioux City

Northwestern Iowa contains Sioux City, Iowa’s 4th largest city and an important centre in the region for food and healthcare. Sioux City itself is an important Labor-Tory swing city, Plymouth County, which contains some of Sioux City’s suburbs, would be strongly Tory.

The remainder of Northwestern Iowa is largely rural Labor-Tory contests, with the Tories doing very well here in 2010. Northwestern Iowa also contains Iowa’s most conservative area, the four counties in the northwestern corner of the state, where USIP record their best vote in the state. This being said, the Tories are in no danger of losing their grip on this region overall.

While the Lib Dems did their best here in quite a long time, building on their good 2005 result here, they are still a long way from breaking the Labor-Tory nature of the race in Iowa. Iowa as a whole was another state the Tories were disappointed not to win in 2010.

Here’s how Iowa would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative (very narrowly)
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Labor
October 1974: Labor
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Labor
1997: Labor
2001: Labor
2005: Labor
2010: Labor

Nebraska

Dominated by prairies, a leader in beef, pork, corn and soybean production, and known for its wild weather, Nebraska is a very rural, thinly populated state, and is named from the archaic Otoe words Ñí Brásge, or flat water. Nebraska’s voting patterns are divided into three sections, as follows:

Nebraska Panhandle

A very rural and agricultural area, Nebraska’s panhandle is extremely strong for the right, and USIP have emerged here over the past decade, winning the region in 2010 after polling well in 2001 and 2005, relegating the once-dominant Tories to second and pushing Labor into an even more distant third. USIP’s success here came largely on the back of the leftward shift of the Tories after the 2005 election, in addition to USIP’s successful pitch to rural voters.

Omaha and Lincoln

Nebraska’s two largest cities are Omaha and Lincoln, the latter also being Nebraska’s capital.

Omaha, the birthplace of TV dinners, Warren Buffett, Top 40 radio and Raisin Bran, and was historically an important centre for the railroad industry. Omaha’s modern economy is much more diverse today, and is home to a number of financial and technological companies, including PayPal and LinkedIn.

While Omaha as a whole tends to lean Tory, it is both Labor and the Lib Dems’ best place in Nebraska, and USIP’s worst. Labor actually narrowly won Omaha city in 1997, largely on the back of a good national result although even then, this was no threat to the Tories’ hold on Nebraska as a whole. USIP would do well in some suburbs and exurbs of Omaha, though, where the Tories do better as well. The Lib Dems also have some good areas to the north and south of Omaha.

Lincoln, on the other hand, was founded as a village named Lancaster, and topped    the Centre for Disease Control’s 2008 healthiest cities list. Like Omaha, left-wing parties can do well here, particularly amongst Nebraskan government workers. Lincoln’s few suburbs, mainly in Seward County, would largely vote Tory, and while USIP would do fairly well here, they would be nowhere near as strong as in rural parts of the state.

Remainder of rural Nebraska

Long a Tory stronghold, rural Nebraska is now a key Tory-USIP battleground, USIP would have won this area fairly comfortably in 2010, after doing well here in 2005, and also doing well in local elections between 2005 and 2010.

The main political battle in Nebraska, for the foreseeable future, is that between the Conservative Party and USIP, left-wing parties have never been competitive here at the state-wide level, not even in years like 1945 or 1997. Nebraska was very competitive state in 2010, USIP pulling off a narrow win thanks to strong rural turnout, proving they are more than a Southern party. While USIP would have won the statewide vote, they would not have won all 3 congressional district votes if the congressional district system was in use, like it is in real life:

To break the 2010 votes down by Congressional district:
NE-1: USIP-Tory marginal, Labor a 3rd party here.
NE-2: Relatively safe Tory, with strong Labor and Lib Dem votes.
NE-3: Solid USIP, Tories a distant second.

Here’s how Nebraska would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative, with USIP polling strongly, particularly in NE-3.
2010: USIP

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR & NE – USIP

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 169
Liberal Democrat: 17
USIP: 51

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47

Up next: Kansas and Oklahoma

[Gass3268]

Great work as always!