US With British Parties

[DC Al Fine]

Great work as always!

[Goldwater]

Great work as always!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Great work as always!

[morgieb]

While I don't agree with all of your predictions, this is certainly a great read. Well done.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Great work as always!

While I don't agree with all of your predictions, this is certainly a great read. Well done.

Before I post Kansas and Oklahoma, I would just like to say thank you all for your feedback and interest!

Kansas

Named from the river of the same name, which was named after the Kansa tribe, Kansas, like Nebraska, is known for its agricultural outputs, and is also home to large oil and gas reserves. Kansas also has an interesting history, in the 1850s, settlers from the Northeast and Upper South fought over whether Kansas should be a free state or a slave state, and was also the first state to constitutionally ban alcohol, back in 1881.

Kansan voting patterns are broken down as follows:   

Kansas City

Much like its larger counterpart on the other side of the Missouri River, Kansas City is a good city for Labor, and stronger for Labor than anywhere in Nebraska. This is largely attributable to its high black and Latino populations, an economy centred around auto manufacturing, food processing, and health services. Like in Kansas City, MO, you may get a rump ANP vote from some poor whites. The SRL/NF would have done well here prior to the 1970s.

Kansas City’s suburbs are very much Tory-voting areas, with the exception of Lib Dem voting Douglas County, the best area for the Lib Dems in Nebraska or Kansas. USIP would do well in 2010, but only in the more semi-rural and rural parts of the metropolitan area.

Topeka and Eastern Kansas

Topeka, Kansas’ capital, has the usual government services found in a state capital, along with strong utility, retail and financial sectors.   Topeka is quite Tory-voting for a state capital, although it has fallen to Labor in some of their landslides. The Lib Dems wouldn’t do too well here, neither would USIP.

Topeka’s suburbs, while still strong for the right, aren’t as affluent as Kansas City’s, so you would see lower Tory and higher USIP and Labor votes, when compared to Kansas City suburbs. Labor would have done well here in 1997/2001, but the tide has since receded, and Kansas as a whole wasn’t in danger of being won by Labor.

The remainder of Eastern Kansas is very rural in nature, and overall leans USIP, with the Tories in second place, although areas with a lot of manufacturing jobs have higher Labor votes. Labor actually won Crawford County in the southeast of the state, courtesy of vote splitting by Labor, USIP and the Tories.

Wichita

Kansas’ largest city, with an economic backbone built on manufacturing, especially aircraft, healthcare, and transportation, in addition to being a major beef processing centre. Like Kansas City, Wichita has a large minority population, and the foundation of a strong Labor vote. There wouldn’t have been much of a SRL/NF vote back in the day though, as Wichita’s minorities are mainly post-1964 migrants and immigrants. Wichita city as a whole would have a low Lib Dem vote, and decent Tory and USIP votes.

Wichita’s suburbs, while strong for the right, aren’t too affluent, but not poor either. Labor would be the stronger left-wing party by far, and USIP would do better here than the Tories in 2010.

Central and Western Kansas

Central and Western Kansas are flat plains with small towns here and there, including Dodge City, basically what comes to a lot of people’s minds when they think of Kansas. Easily the most right-wing part of the state, the key contest here is between the Tories and USIP, and USIP won big here in 2010.

The southwest of Kansas, the part that was a part of New Spain, Mexico and the Republic of Texas, in that order, has a high Latino population. While a significant proportion of these Latinos are recent immigrants, a larger number have been in the region for considerably longer, particularly since the early 20th century. You would see a slightly higher Labor vote than other counties in West Kansas, although USIP is still very much the dominant party here.

Kansas, much like Nebraska, is a Tory-USIP battleground for the foreseeable future, although Kansas has a slightly stronger Labor party, thanks to Kansas City.

Here’s how Kansas would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative, with a strong USIP vote in rural parts of the state.
2010: USIP

Oklahoma

Formed by the merger of Oklahoma and Indian Territories in 1907, Oklahoma takes its name from the Choctaw words okla and humma, or red people. Known for its wild weather, forests mesas and prairies, Oklahoma has large oil and gas resources, and is an important agricultural centre. Oklahoma also has an ugly past of being used as a dumping ground for Southeastern Native Americans, hence the name Indian Territory. Oklahoman voting habits are split up into the state’s five regions:   

Panhandle and NW Oklahoma

Long a right-wing stronghold, even in years like 1945 and 1966, the northwestern counties of Oklahoma are thinly populated, and have favoured USIP since the early days of that party, first voting for USIP in 2005. The Panhandle also has a significant Latino population, much like the adjacent parts of Texas and Kansas, although a lot of these Latinos have been living there for a long time, unlike the more recent migrants in the likes of Oklahoma City. Labor would come second here, with the Tories in third and the Lib Dems a very distant fourth.

Oklahoma City

Home to a large portion of Oklahoma’s population, Oklahoma City is home to one of the largest livestock markets in the world, along with the Tinker Air Force Base, energy companies and IT, in addition to the usual state capital services. Oklahoma City itself is quite right-wing for a state capital, like Topeka. The Tories would have done very well here in 2010, with Labor in second, and USIP and the Lib Dems virtually neck-and-neck for third, USIP narrowly nudging the Lib Dems into fourth..

Oklahoma City’s metropolitan area becomes stronger for USIP, and weaker for the Tories, the further you go from Oklahoma City itself. Again, Labor would be the stronger left wing party here, and the Tories didn’t do anywhere near as well as they did in the 1980s and early 1990s.

Tulsa and NE Oklahoma

Tulsa, Oklahoma’s second city, has an economy centred on the oil industry, although this has since diversified, with strong technology, aviation, finance and energy sectors. Even stronger for the Tories than Oklahoma City, Tulsa is the other major source of the Tory vote in Oklahoma, with Labor second, partly thanks to the high black and Latino populations, like in Oklahoma City. USIP would be the third party here.

Tulsa’s suburbs have high USIP, low Tory and decent Labor votes, particularly as there is a high Native American population in the Tulsa metropolitan area, and the suburbs aren’t as affluent as a lot of other American suburbs. The Tories would do best east of Tulsa, USIP would do well in the west, and Labor would do well both south and north of Tulsa.

The remainder of NE Oklahoma has a high Native American population, and while having a decent vote for Labor, USIP would win a nice majority of the vote here, with the Tories not doing too well.

Little Dixie

The best part of Oklahoma for Labor, Little Dixie was also a stronghold for the SRL and NF as late as 1974. While Labor would still do better here than in other parts of Oklahoma, especially amongst Native Americans, they are nowhere near their strength throughout most of the 20th century, indeed, Little Dixie swung to Labor in the 1983 election, only to swing away from them in 1997 and 2001. Little Dixie would vote USIP for the most part, particularly with the large Baptist population, with Labor coming second and the Tories and Lib Dems largely non-existent.

Southwest Oklahoma

A high number of Baptists and Native Americans alike live in Southwest Oklahoma, which largely votes USIP, Labor in a distant second. However, Labor poll well in Lawton, although USIP would still do well there. The Tories would be a quite distant third

Oklahoma, in line with its neighbours to the east and southeast, is the political equivalent of tumbleweed for the Lib Dems,
   
Here’s how Oklahoma would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Labor, narrowly, thanks to strong turnout in Little Dixie.
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Labor, in a crucial win for the party.
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative, with a strong ANP vote in Little Dixie.
1997: Conservative, very narrowly though, thanks to the national swing to Labor and the still-high ANP vote.
2001: Conservative, with USIP beginning to emerge.
2005: USIP
2010: USIP

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 169
Liberal Democrat: 17
USIP: 64

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56

Next up, Texas! As Texas is quite a large state, it will take me a bit longer than these past few sets of states I've done.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here's Texas!

Texas

The second largest state in terms of both area and population, Texas was an independent republic for nine years before joining the USA in 1845. Texas also has a rich history involving Native Americans, the Americans, French, Spanish and Mexicans, including events such as The Alamo and divisions in the Civil War. A mighty economic power, Texas also has its own energy grid, its own Bill of Rights which is longer than the federal version, and more recently, a major hub for technology, renewable energy and commerce, with 57 Fortune 500 companies, tied first with California in the nation.

In addition to the parties found elsewhere in the US, sans Arizona and New Mexico, Texas also has a separatist party, the Texan National Party or TNP. The TNP caters for those who support the Texas separatist movement, which 18% of Texans support as of 2009. Like the SNP in Scotland, the TNP tends to do well in rural areas, particularly the oil fields.

East Texas

The most “Southern” area of Texas, East Texas would have been a stronghold for both the SRL and the NF back in the day, and was also strong for Labor back in the day, particularly between the 1964 and 1979 elections, when East Texas made a big turn for the right. It was partially Labor’s strong results here in both 1974 elections that helped it win the state and country.

In modern times, East Texas would, in theory, be a good area for USIP, thanks to the high Baptist population, like in states to the east. However, the TNP’s presence means USIP don’t do as well as they do in the other Southern states, in this largely rural area of Texas. In 2010, East Texas was a hotly contested region between the Tories, USIP and the TNP, with Labor the main left wing party, doing their best in Beaumont, and the Lib Dems way behind in fifth.

Generally, the TNP would do better amongst the oil and gas industries, and USIP amongst farmers, with the Tories picking up votes in between the two. The TNP would have won a plurality of the vote in 2010, on the back of the oil industry and farmer’s respective anger towards the incumbent Labor government, but seeing the Tories as not much better.

Dallas-Fort Worth

Dallas, Texas’ 3rd and America’s 9th city in terms of population, Dallas began as a hub for the railroad, oil and cotton industries, and is now a leading commerce, banking and technology centre in Texas. Dallas itself, with its high black and Latino populations, largely votes Labor, with Respect strong in neighbourhoods like Oak Cliff, the Lib Dems and Greens doing well in university areas, and the Tories doing well in the city’s north. The ANP would get some support from some whites in neighbourhoods like Oak Cliff as well. The Tories have done well here in the past, including the 1983 and 1987 elections.

Dallas’ metropolitan area, which also includes the cities of Fort Worth and Arlington, is a fairly mixed bag. Dallas’ northern suburbs would vote Tory, USIP and the TNP wouldn’t be major players here, and the Lib Dems would come second. To the east, south and west of Dallas, the Tories would do well, although these suburbs aren’t as affluent and you would see USIP and the TNP do better, and Labor the stronger left-wing party.

Fort Worth, Texas’ 5th city, was established as an Army outpost in 1849, and is also known for the Kimbell Art Museum. Considering its aviation-based economy and higher average income, Fort Worth has a higher Tory vote than Dallas, winning quite comfortably in 2010, although Labor are still strong here, and Respect still do well in some black and Latino neighbourhoods, although not doing as well as in Dallas. Much of the Tory strength in the Fort Worth area comes from Arlington, which is in the same county as Fort Worth.

Houston and Galveston

Houston, named after the President of Texas, Sam Houston, is Texas’ largest city, and has been home to the railroad, port, energy, aeronautics and healthcare industries over the years, including NASA’s Johnson Space Centre. The energy sector, renewable and non-renewable alike, remains dominant in Houston’s economy today. Houston city votes somewhat similarly to Dallas, with its large Latino and black populations, Houston nowadays being plurality Latino. Poor minority communities would like Respect, although Labor would by far be the dominant party here, with the ANP polling somewhat highly amongst whites in minority areas, and the Tories picking up most of the right wing vote. USIP and the TNP are virtually absent in Houston city.

Houston’s suburbs are similar to Dallas’, with a Tory-Lib Dem area in the form of Fort Bend County, which voted Lib Dem in 1997 and 2001, along with voting Liberal in 1974.

Galveston, home to the infamous, recently retired Republican representative Ron Paul, and a major port on the Gulf of Mexico, in addition to its more modern financial, healthcare and tourism sectors of its economy. Generally, Galveston swings between the Tories and Labor, although USIP recorded good votes at the Presidential level when Ron Paul was still a Congressman (or should I say MP), but nowhere near their successes at the parliamentary level. The TNP wouldn’t do too well here, even post-Paul’s retirement.

Austin

Texas’ capital and 4th largest city, Austin is Texas’ best city for the Lib Dems, largely thanks to the usual state government services, the presence of company headquarters such as Whole Foods, Apple and Google, as well as being home to the environmental movement in Texas. 2010 would have seen the Lib Dems win a large vote against a resurgent Tories, who came second, and Labor, who came in a strong third. The Greens would also do well here, particularly around the University of Texas campus.

Austin’s suburbs, while still good for the Tories, would have stronger Labor and Lib Dem votes than suburbs of Houston or Dallas. The northern suburbs of Austin are particularly good for the Lib Dems, and areas to the northwest of Austin are good for USIP/the TNP.

Central Texas

North of the Upper Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, south of the Panhandle, and west of San Antonio, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth, Central Texas is a very rural, resource rich region, and areas that aren’t rich in oil or gas are home to agriculture and ranching – in other words, what a lot of people think of when they think of Texas.

A very Protestant (particularly Baptist and Methodist) area, Central Texas has a similar vote split to East Texas, with USIP and the TNP both doing very well here. As in East Texas, the TNP would do better areas dominated by the energy industry, while USIP would do well amongst farmers. USIP would come in first, Labor would finish a distant third, and the Tories an even more distant fourth.

San Antonio

Named after the Spanish name for Saint Anthony, San Antonio is Texas’ 2nd city and America’s 7th city by population, San Antonio, home of the Alamo, Marriage Island, and a number of military facilities including two air bases, is also the second most Latino city in Texas, after El Paso. However, San Antonio has largely been a Latino city from its founding, and was the capital of Texas (or should I say Tearjas) when it was a part of the Spanish Empire and later Mexico.

While Labor would still do well here, much like in the Latino areas of Dallas/Houston, and Respect would do well in poorer areas, the Tories would do better in San Antonio than in Dallas, as a lot of the Latinos there have been largely settled, also, the Tories would do well amongst those in the military. The Lib Dems, USIP and the TNP aren’t very present in San Antonio.

San Antonio’s suburbs are good for the Tories overall, with the Lib Dems polling well in Kendall County, and the Tories doing the best in the northern suburbs. Southern and western suburbs, which are more Latino and less affluent, would largely be Labor-Tory contests, and Labor would have done fairly well here in 2010, losing to the Tories quite narrowly. Eastern suburbs would be somewhere between the two regarding support for both Labor and the Tories.

South Texas

Getting closer to the Rio Grande and the Mexican border, the southern parts of Texas are home to a high number of relative newcomers from Mexico and other Latin America countries. Economically, gas is more prevalent than oil regarding resources, although you would still see a significant TNP vote around here, although nothing like in Eastern or Central Texas. Overall, you would see a strong vote for Labor, with USIP in second, one of Labor’s good rural areas.

Corpus Christi, a major port on the Gulf of Mexico, and home to both an army depot and naval air station, and known for being the first American city to offer city-wide free wi-fi. Thanks to both of these industries, Corpus Christi is a Labor-Tory swing city, voting Tory by a large margin in 2010, with USIP and the TNP competing for third place and the Lib Dems in fifth.

Border areas, including towns such as Brownsville, would largely vote Labor, although you would see a strong ANP vote in these towns, particularly in years like 1992. USIP would likely be the main right wing party in this part of Texas overall.

West Texas

More oil, agriculture and ranching dominate the West Texan economy, so once again, the TNP and USIP dominate votes here, although USIP would do better here than in East Texas and Central Texas. The Tories would be the third party here, not Labor, although Labor are in a decent fourth place, well ahead of the Lib Dems.

Upper Rio Grande and El Paso

Covering the more western parts of the Texas-Mexico border, the Upper Rio Grande is a Latino majority region, and while it leans Labor overall, it doesn’t vote as strongly for Labor as one may think – The Tories and USIP do well amongst Latinos that have been in the region for many years, USIP do well amongst whites, and the ANP would get a decent vote amongst poorer whites, particularly in areas closer to the border.

El Paso, half of an international twin city area (the other half being Ciudad Juárez), and has a very diverse economy, including military, food production, manufacturing and trade with its Mexican neighbour. El Paso is by far Labor’s strongest city in Texas, with USIP coming in second, the Tories in third and the ANP in fourth. The Tories would come third on the back of the military presence in El Paso.

Texas is continued in the next post, due to the 11,000 character limit.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Texas (continued)

North Texas and the Panhandle

Northern parts of Texas once had a stronger Labor base as in East Texas, which helped Labor gain the state in 1964. While Labor would still be the main left wing party in this region, North Texas would be USIP’s best region in the state, USIP’s vote increasing as you move northwards towards Oklahoma. While there is a sizeable Latino population along the New Mexico border, these Latinos are mainly of Spanish and Chicano stock, and would be more likely to vote Tory or even USIP than Labor.

The TNP wouldn’t have too much of a presence here, certainly not like in East Texas, although they would still poll well, especially in years like 1974. The Tories would finish ahead of Labor in much of this region.

Overall, Texas was a key hold for the Tories in 2010, thanks to vote splitting from the TNP, USIP and Labor, and a successful appeal to Latinos, much like Bush in 2004 in real life. Texas will remain a right wing state for the foreseeable future, whether or not USIP or the TNP can win it is another question though.

Regarding the TNP, they have won gubernatorial, mayoral, and seats in all levels of government, and should they ever win the state in a Presidential election, they would most likely back a Tory candidate in the event of a hung electoral college.

Here’s how Texas would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor, partially as a result of a strong NF vote.
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Labor, partially thanks to a high TNP vote.
October 1974: Labor, with the TNP continuing to poll high.
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 207
Liberal Democrat: 17
USIP: 64

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17

[Knives]

I think a lot of these are wrong, you must remember the Southern states vote on social policy not economic otherwise Dems would still be strong, and consider Labor and Conservative have basically the same social values I think many of these predictions are off.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think a lot of these are wrong, you must remember the Southern states vote on social policy not economic otherwise Dems would still be strong, and consider Labor and Conservative have basically the same social values I think many of these predictions are off.

Which is why I gave a lot of Southern states to USIP - they would see the Tories as a bunch of elitists, but wouldn't want to vote for Labor or the Lib Dems, who would be seen as too progressive on social issues. Unless you are talking about the Upper South, particularly WV and KY, which although not won by Labor in 2005/2010, Labor would be stronger there in their good years, such as 1997 and 2001, than the Democrats are in their good years.

Also, there is still a good deal of Labor strength in the South - in this scenario, I would expect the likes of AR, MS and LA to swing back to Labor in 2015, considering the current polling of the government. The Upper South would also be a prime target for Labor.

EDIT: New Mexico and Colorado are up next.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think a lot of these are wrong, you must remember the Southern states vote on social policy not economic otherwise Dems would still be strong, and consider Labor and Conservative have basically the same social values I think many of these predictions are off.

Do they?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21346220

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think a lot of these are wrong, you must remember the Southern states vote on social policy not economic otherwise Dems would still be strong, and consider Labor and Conservative have basically the same social values I think many of these predictions are off.

Do they?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21346220

127 Tories, or just under 42% of Tory MPs, still voted in favour of the bill, which shows how much the Tories have moved to the left socially, even though they've always had a "wet" wing. While a hypothetical branch of the Conservative Party in the American South would likely be more right-wing than their British counterparts, they would still be seen as too socially progressive for a lot of Southerners. Hence why some Southern states are Labor-USIP contests, and USIP is strong in the South overall.

[corporal sam]

Wow this is awesome!. Is it okay If I do my own verson of this with UK parties and one with Danish?.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Wow this is awesome!. Is it okay If I do my own verson of this with UK parties and one with Danish?.

Of course! Looking forward to reading them both!

[DC Al Fine]

Wow this is awesome!. Is it okay If I do my own verson of this with UK parties and one with Danish?.

Especially looking forward to the Danish one.

[Goldwater]

When will the next update come?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

When will the next update come?

Hello, sorry for the delay, but New Mexico and Colorado should be done today or tomorrow.

EDIT: Due to some computer trouble, NM and CO have been delayed Don't worry though, I haven't forgotten about this project!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

New Mexico and Colorado are finally done!

Before New Mexico, I would just like to remind all readers of this thread that New Mexico and Arizona, for the purposes of this project, will be assessed using equivalents of the Northern Irish parties, partly because Arizona and New Mexico are border states, have had large Latino populations for a long time, and became states in the same year. Also, I thought I’d do it as a bit of a deviation from the norm.

I’ll re-summarize the NM and AZ parties in this post, adding an Alliance Party like the one in NI:

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - Pro-American, conservative minor party in Arizona and New Mexico. Would draw supporters of all ethnicities.
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) [Southwest Unionist Party (SUP)]   - Staunchly pro-American, conservative minor party in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. Would mainly draw white supporters, and Jan Brewer would be a likely leader.
Social Democratic and Labo(u)r (SDLP) - Left-wing party in Arizona and New Mexico, with primarily Latino supporters.
Sinn Fein (SF) [Nosotros Mismos (NM)] - Latino party in Arizona and New Mexico, calling for the return of these states to Mexico. Like Sinn Fein, Nosotros Mismos members would not take their seats in Congress.
Alliance – Moderate party drawing supporters from all ethnicities.

Brief summaries of how AZ and NM would vote with the nationwide parties are also provided after the state’s relevant entry. This is because correlations between NI and the SW of America, in comparison to the rest of the UK and US respectively, aren’t that strong, and most other assessments of this type would do all 50 states with the same parties.

This being said, here’s how people voting for each Southwestern party would vote for the mainstream parties:

DUP – Largely Conservative, with some USIP and Labor support.
SUP – Largely USIP, and would probably pick up the ANP’s votes too.
SDLP – Labor, some Lib Dem support, and the Greens’ support too.
NM – Likely Labor, perhaps Respect in Phoenix/Albuquerque.
Alliance – Largely Lib Dem and Labor, with some wet Tory support.

Also, thank you all again for your interest and feedback in this project.

And now, New Mexico and Colorado:

New Mexico

From its Native American beginnings, New Mexico has been a part of New Spain, Mexico, before becoming a US territory and then a state. New Mexico has the largest percentage of Latinos in the US, both descendants of Spaniards and more recent immigrants from Latin America. New Mexico also as the 4th highest percentage of Native Americans, has a strong oil and gas industry like Texas, a strong military presence, and at the state level of government, financial incentives for job creation, particularly for infrastructure and film production.

Albuquerque

New Mexico’s largest city, Albuquerque started out as a Spanish colonial outpost in 1706, and has since transformed into a rapidly growing major centre in the region. A major technology and military centre in the Southwest, Albuquerque has good areas for the SDLP, Alliance and DUP alike. The SDLP tends to do well in poorer areas, particularly poorer Latino areas, the DUP in more military dominated areas and with more affluent Latinos, and the Alliance with more progressive whites, particularly around the University of New Mexico.

Rio Rancho, largely considered to be part of suburban Albuquerque, is known for its lower taxes than the Albuquerque area, and is more DUP-leaning than Albuquerque. The Alliance also poll well here, although the SDLP continue to do well. Albuquerque as a whole was a tight 3-way contest in 2010, with the DUP narrowly coming first, a strong SDLP in second, and although the Alliance finished third, they scored their best result here since the 1974 elections.   

Santa Fe

The capital of New Mexico, Santa Fe is also the oldest capital, that is still a capital, of any modern-day US state or territory, and was founded back in 1610. Santa Fe is known for its art scene, notably its visual arts and literature. The most affluent city in New Mexico, Santa Fe’s populace also has the highest percentage of people with college degrees in the state, implying a large vote for the Alliance and DUP, although the SDLP do well here too, particularly in poor areas. The SUP might pick up some poorer white votes around here.

Suburban Santa Fe, comprising locations in Santa Fe and Los Alamos counties, is quite affluent, and particularly in the case of Los Alamos County, very educated. Very much an Alliance-DUP contest here, with the Alliance doing very well here from 1997 onwards, although the DUP won here in 2010. The SDLP can occasionally come second here, like in 1997. The SUP and NM are practically non-existent here.

Eastern New Mexico and Little Texas

Southern parts of eastern New Mexico, or Little Texas, is the SUP's best area of the state, and is a very conservative area overall, with the DUP finishing second. Using the national parties, it would vote quite similarly to adjacent parts of Texas.

Colorado Plateau

Situated in the north-west part of the state, NM’s portion of the Colorado Plateau has a significant Native American population, who tend to strongly vote SDLP. Latinos in this region are more of a swing demographic, with the DUP doing well here in 2010, and the Alliance not doing as well. Overall, would have narrowly been held in 2010 by the SDLP.

Southwestern New Mexico

Nostros Mismos' best area in the state, the SW corner of New Mexico, containing New Mexico's Bootheel, is very much a Latino area. Whites in this area would strongly vote SUP or DUP, the latter receiving some tactical votes, and some votes from more settled Latinos. The Alliance would be non-existent, and the SDLP would also do well. In 2010, the DUP would have won here by a decent margin, largely thanks to low Latino turnout, particularly amongst those who are more recent migrants.

New Mexico as a whole is quite difficult to pin down in terms of British parties, even more so with NI equivalent parties. Overall, the main contest is between the DUP and the SDLP, and the DUP have bounced back significantly, narrowly gaining New Mexico in 2010 despite a resurgent SUP, also thanks to an Alliance revival leeching vote from the SDLP. The SUP used to be very strong in New Mexico, particularly before 1970, and while they have had moments of glory since, they are largely the third or fourth party in New Mexico today. New Mexico was also a lot stronger for the right overall, but has trended left for quite some time. Nostros Mismos would sometimes hold the constituency covering the southwest of the state, but otherwise be a largely local party here.

If New Mexico used the nationwide parties, it would largely be a Labor-Tory contest, Labor gaining traction since their 1997 win. There would be a sizeable Lib Dem vote in both Albuquerque and Santa Fe, and USIP would do well in Little Texas.

Here’s how New Mexico would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: SDLP/Labor
1950: SUP/SRL
1951: SUP/SRL
1955: SUP/SRL
1959: SUP/Conservative
1964: SUP/NF
1966: SDLP/Labor
1970: SUP, in a last triumph for the party./Conservative
February 1974: DUP, the SUP’s vote largely having moved their way./Conservative
October 1974: DUP/Conservative
1979: DUP/Conservative
1983: DUP Conservative
1987: DUP/Conservative
1992: DUP/Conservative
1997: SDLP/Labor
2001: SDLP/Labor
2005: SDLP/Labor
2010: DUP/Conservative

Colorado is in the next post, so don't navigate away!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Colorado

Named from the Spanish word for “red coloured”, Colorado is known for its mountains and plains, particularly the former. The mountains in turn affect Colorado’s climate to a greater degree than all the surrounding states. Colorado also has a very rich and interesting history, that of Spanish exploration, war, a gold rush, a centre for those recovering from TB, and, more recently, two high profile shootings. Colorado is also the setting for the satirical animated black comedy South Park, which often parodies political events of the day.

Now for Colorado’s assessment:

Denver-Aurora-Broomfield Metropolitan Area

Denver, Colorado’s capital and largest city, is the 2nd largest city in both the Mountain and Southwestern states, after Phoenix. Denver city has long been a stronghold of the left, particularly since the 1980s. While Labor would have won here from 1987 until 2005, and would continue to lead significantly amongst the city’s minorities, the Lib Dems, and the Liberals before that, have always had a stronghold in Denver city.

This is largely a result of being a major distribution centre for the region, home to major gold producer Newmont Mining, and home to several Ball Corporation enterprises, amongst other important and prominent businesses. The Tories would come a strong third here, the Greens in fourth, and USIP and the ANP virtually absent. The Lib Dems won here in 2005 and 2010, after the Liberals won here in both 1974 elections and 1979.

Denver’s suburban voting patterns can be broken down by county:
Adams – Labor’s best county in the Denver area outside of Denver itself, the race in Adams County was very tight in 2010, with a significant portion of Labor voters voting Lib Dem to stop the Tories from winning.
Araphoe – A bellwether county, Araphoe narrowly stayed with the Lib Dems against a Tory resurgence. Would have strongly voted Tory prior to 1997, although 1974 was very close in both elections here.
Broomfield – Lib Dem-Tory swing area, stayed with the former in 2010, the area was staunchly Tory until 1997.
Clear Creek – Fairly strong Lib Dem area, Tories considerably behind, but comfortably in second.
Douglas – One of the Conservatives’ strongest counties in the whole state, this wealthy county often returns results with the Lib Dems in a distant second, and Labor in a more distant third.
Elbert – Even stronger for the Tories than Douglas County, Elbert County is also USIP’s best area in the Greater Denver region, outpolling Labor in 2010.
Gilpin – Similar to Clear Creek County, although with stronger Lib Dem and Labor votes, and a weaker Tory vote.
Jefferson – Like Araphoe County, Jefferson County is also known as a bellwether of sorts, it also narrowly voted Lib Dem, with a slightly stronger Tory party than in Araphoe.
Park – Getting into more exurban and rural territory, Park County tends to vote Tory, although has gone Lib Dem before, notably in 1997.
Weld – Like Park County, although stronger for the Tories, and for that matter, USIP.

Boulder

Home to the main campus of the University of Colorado, Boulder was well known as a top destination for hippies in the 1960s, and continues to record some of the best results for the Green Party in the country, especially at the local level. Boulder is likely the home of an American Brighton Pavilion constituency, although at the presidential level, the Lib Dems usually have no trouble gaining a majority of the vote here. The Tories are a distant second, and Labor usually run dead here. In 2005 and 2010, they got less votes than the Greens, although they came fairly close to second place in 1997.

Colorado Springs

An important defence and technology hub, Colorado Springs is the best city in Colorado for the Tories, the Lib Dems would be in a distant second, and Labor would virtually always run third here.

Pueblo

An important steel producer, Pueblo has long been Labor’s best city in Colorado, and the only city in the state where the Lib Dems run third. The Tories can poll a decent vote here, but haven’t won here since 1983. The ANP might have a base here too, amongst poorer whites.

Fort Collins

Like Boulder, Fort Collins is a university city, and votes in a fairly similar manner, although the Tories would be slightly stronger in Larimer County as a whole.

Eastern Plains

USIP’s best area in Colorado, the Eastern Plains have long been a Tory bastion, remaining so these days largely because of tactical voting. If you look at combined right/left vote though, it would be quite similar to areas over the border in Kansas/Nebraska.

Western Slope

Known for its alpine mountains, fresh water, majestic scenery and skiing resorts, this very mountainous part of Colorado is quite affluent, although is not a Tory voting area and hasn’t been for quite some time. The Lib Dems and Greens alike do very well here, the latter especially in local elections. Labor don’t do very well here either, competing with the Greens for fourth place nowadays.

Areas closer to Utah, such as Garfield and Rio Blanco Counties to name two, are more Tory voting than the more alpine areas, some places have Labor as the main left wing party, and overall, the Green vote is much lower.

Southern Colorado

Areas of Colorado south of the mountains and Pueblo, but north of the New Mexico border, are relatively poor in relation to the rest of the state, and have a higher Latino population than the Eastern Plains.

Parts of this area are very good for the Labor Party, such as Costilla County, however, as a significant number of the Latinos in this part of Colorado are of Spanish and not Latin American stock, Labor wouldn’t do as well as they would amongst Latinos in the Denver region. The Lib Dems’ worst part of the state, and the Tories’ results here range from very low (Costilla) to very high (Mineral County). Overall, won by the Tories in 2010, although Labor have held a good deal of their post-1997 vote here.

Colorado as a whole was historically strong for the Conservatives, although the Liberals/Lib Dems have always had a base here. Beginning in the 1980s, there has been a notable drift to the left, or should I say the Lib Dems, in Colorado. It would require the Tories to win in a landslide nationally, and/or a wipeout of the Lib Dem vote to dislodge the Lib Dem hold of the Centennial State.

Here’s how Colorado would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Liberal
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal
October 1974: Liberal
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Liberal Democrat
2001: Liberal Democrat
2005: Liberal Democrat
2010: Liberal Democrat

The updated vote shares & map are in the next post.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 207
Liberal Democrat: 26
USIP: 64
DUP: 5

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10- 35-2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44

Wyoming and Montana are next.

EDIT: Made NM's winner bold

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

One more thing - In case I don't update this before then, may you all have a Happy and Holy Easter!

[Goldwater]

Great update! Out of curiosity, who is each party's 2010 candidate for president?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

A happy and holy Easter to yourself as well.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Great update! Out of curiosity, who is each party's 2010 candidate for president?

Hey, sorry for the late reply, but here's who I think would be the 2010 and 2015 candidates for each party:

2010
Conservative: Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman or Mark Warner
Labor: Barack Obama (would have had him as a Liberal Democrat earlier on, but he'd fit right in with Blair and company), or John Edwards.
Liberal Democrat: Hillary Clinton
USIP: Rick Santorum, Sam Brownback or Michele Bachmann. Ron Paul also would have run in the USIP primary.
Green: Jill Stein
ANP: David Duke
Respect: Cynthia McKinney

2015
Conservative: Chris Christie or Marco Rubio
Labor:: Elizabeth Warren or Martin O'Malley
Liberal Democrat: Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo or John Hickenlooper
USIP: Mike Pence, Rand Paul, Scott Walker or Bobby Jindal
Green: Jill Stein
ANP: David Duke
Respect: Cynthia McKinney

A happy and holy Easter to yourself as well.

Thank you!

I'm still doing Montana, although I've done Wyoming, so I'll post Wyoming's entry now:

Wyoming

The least populous, but 10th most extensive state in the United States, the Cowboy State is very mountains, its lowest point still being over 3000 ft above sea level. Home to Yellowstone National Park, very rural in nature, an economy driven by visitors to its scenic splendours and its various mining operations, and being one of the few states with no state income tax, it’s fairly obvious already that Wyoming is very strong for the Tories.

Cheyenne

The capital and largest city of Wyoming by far, Cheyenne is the northern limit of the Front Range Urban Corridor, with extends through much of Colorado. Cheyenne would be one of the most right-leaning state capitals in the entire country, and solidly voted Conservative in 2010, with the Lib Dems in second, Labor struggling to stay in third place, and USIP polling most of the remainder.

Casper and Laramie

Wyoming’s other notable cities, Casper and Laramie, used to both strongly vote Tory, and while the former still does, Laramie swung heavily to the Lib Dems in 1997, and continue to win the area with ease. Laramie is quite progressive in comparison to other parts of Wyoming, passing a law that banned smoking in the workplace back in 2004, for example.

Rural Wyoming

Covering most of the state, rural areas of Wyoming generally vote in this order:
1.   Conservative (in the whole of Wyoming, they only failed to win Albany County, thanks to a high Lib Dem vote)
2.   Lib Dem
3.   USIP
4.   Labor

There are exceptions to this, such as Labor outpolling the Lib Dems in areas with high Native American populations, such as Fremont County. USIP do better than both left wing parties in the north and northeast parts of the state.

Wyoming as a whole will continue to be a stronghold for the Conservative Party, and one of the worst states for the Labor Party. However, the Wyoming branch of USIP, which is significantly more libertarian than in other states, can do well here, particularly in state and local elections, such as the 2010 election with which elected USIP’s Matt Mead to office. USIP will likely gain a large number of votes from the Tories at the 2015 election.

Here’s how Wyoming would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

EDIT: Added another 2015 USIP candidate (Jindal)

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Montana

Moving back towards the border with Canada, Montana, named from the Spanish word for mountain, aptly contains a large number of mountains. Like Wyoming, Montana is very extensive (4th most extensive state), but very thinly populated (44th in population, 48th in population density). Also like Wyoming, Montana has no sales tax. Economically dominated by ranching, wheat and grain farming, oil, gas, coal, timber and tourism, Montana has a significant portion of its territory covered by national parks, a significant source of its tourism.

As Montana is quite an extensive state in terms of area, its four major cities, Helena, Missoula, Great Falls and Billings, have their own entries, and the remainder of the state has been divided into three entries.

Helena

Montana’s capital, aside from containing standard state capital services, was founded on rich silver and lead deposits, and mineral processing plants continue to form a strong portion of its economy. Swing between the Tories and the Lib Dems, Helena has been strong for both since the old Whig-Tory days, and was won by the Tories in 2005 and 2010, after the Lib Dems won it in 1997 and 2001.

Missoula

Long an important timber, education and trading city, Missoula has been home to the University of Montana since 1895, and is a Lib Dem-Tory city like Helena. Unlike Helena, the Lib Dems tend to be the stronger party here, the Tories last winning Missoula in 1987.

Western Montana

Rural Montana to the west of Helena and Great Falls, this part of the Treasure State votes Tory as a whole, although Native American areas are strongly Labor, and like Wyoming, the major source of Labor votes in Montana. The major left wing party is the Lib Dems, although Labor still poll ahead of the Greens, the ANP or USIP.

Great Falls

Great Falls tends to vote in a similar manner to Helena, although is slightly stronger for the Tories, thanks to a strong military presence, notably home to Malmstrom Air Force Base and the 341st Missile Wing.

Central Montana

East of Helena and west of Billings, the centre of Montana is very rural in nature, and aside from Blaine and Hill Counties, which have high Native American populations, staunchly votes Tory. USIP poll somewhat decently both here and in the east of the state, winning a few local elections, otherwise polling comparatively poorly to even the likes of Wyoming.

Some counties have Labor in second place, although the largest left wing party here is the Lib Dems.

Billings

Montana’s largest city, and a prime retail area for not only Montana, but also Wyoming and the Dakotas, Billings is also a major trading and distribution centre, and home to many regional and corporate headquarters, including Stillwater Mining Company and First Interstate Bank.

Influenced by its strong business background, Billings is more Tory voting than other cities in Montana, although the Lib Dems still do well here from time to time.

Eastern Montana

Covering parts of Montana east of Billings, Eastern Montana is another strong Tory area, with the exception of Labor-voting Big Horn and Roosevelt Counties, largely Native American areas.

Montana has voted Conservative at a majority of elections since 1945, although is also very strong for the Liberal Democrats, dating back to when they were simply the Liberal Party.

Here’s how Montana would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Liberal
1950: Liberal
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Liberal
1966: Liberal
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Liberal
October 1974: Liberal
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Liberal Democrat
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 213
Liberal Democrat: 26
USIP: 64
DUP: 5

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10-35-2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44
Wyoming: 7-71-15-5
Montana: 11-57-26

EDIT: Bolded New Mexico's winner