The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[5280]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

According to this narrative, Ken Buck would have won in 2010:

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He did not.

Besides, the SUSA poll for CO Indies you are quoting was conducted just after the 1st debate, so things might have changed in favor of Obama again. Especially CO Indies, which are a Obama-leaning folk. If Romney led by just 4 after the 1st debate, there's a good chance Obama is leading again by big margins with them.

CO Indies are not Obama leaning folks, that's a false hope which isn't true. Secondly, Romney isn't a Ken Buck so stop bringing that up, it's tiring and an old comparison. Ken Buck lost because he was a far right social con.

[J. J.]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

[Lief 🗽]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

No... or else the Democratic lead wouldn't have increased by 5,000...

[J. J.]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

No... or else the Democratic lead wouldn't have increased by 5,000...

Lief, you can have 5000 D's show up and 8000 R's show up.  The percentage of R's increased. 

[Lief 🗽]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

No... or else the Democratic lead wouldn't have increased by 5,000...

Lief, you can have 5000 D's show up and 8000 R's show up.  The percentage of R's increased. 

You can't have 5000 Ds show up and 8000 Rs show up and have the Democratic margin increase though. It's simple math.

[J. J.]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

No... or else the Democratic lead wouldn't have increased by 5,000...

Lief, you can have 5000 D's show up and 8000 R's show up.  The percentage of R's increased. 

You can't have 5000 Ds show up and 8000 Rs show up and have the Democratic margin increase though. It's simple math.

We didn't have that.  The percentage of D voters decreased in Clark. 

[Lief 🗽]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

No... or else the Democratic lead wouldn't have increased by 5,000...

Lief, you can have 5000 D's show up and 8000 R's show up.  The percentage of R's increased. 

You can't have 5000 Ds show up and 8000 Rs show up and have the Democratic margin increase though. It's simple math.

We didn't have that.  The percentage of D voters decreased in Clark. 

We did have that. There were 25,000 more Democratic ballots than Republican ballots at the end of Tuesday. Then there was a total of 30,500 more Democratic ballots than Republican ballots at the end of Wednesday. The Democratic margin therefore increased by 5,500 votes. How is this so difficult to understand??!??!?!?!

[J. J.]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

The R's had more voters out than the D's on that day. 

No... or else the Democratic lead wouldn't have increased by 5,000...

Lief, you can have 5000 D's show up and 8000 R's show up.  The percentage of R's increased. 

You can't have 5000 Ds show up and 8000 Rs show up and have the Democratic margin increase though. It's simple math.

We didn't have that.  The percentage of D voters decreased in Clark. 

We did have that. There were 25,000 more Democratic ballots than Republican ballots at the end of Tuesday. Then there was a total of 30,500 more Democratic ballots than Republican ballots at the end of Wednesday. The Democratic margin therefore increased by 5,500 votes. How is this so difficult to understand??!??!?!?!

Where do you get these figures? 

[Lief 🗽]

Jon Ralston's twitter account (link):

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And then eight hours later:

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[J. J.]

Jon Ralston's twitter account (link):

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And then eight hours later:

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The D's had the lead and added 6000.  That doesn't tell us anything about how many votes the R's got that day.  I've been looking at the percentages and the share of D votes, the percentage the had, dropped slightly. 

Here are numbers reported today:

D 76,665
R 47,958
NP  26669

http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=1195

You can check back later.  )

[Lief 🗽]

It tells us that Rs got 6000 votes fewer than the Ds did that day. Which is more important than the assertion that they lost by slightly less than they did before.

[J. J.]

It tells us that Rs got 6000 votes fewer than the Ds did that day. Which is more important than the assertion that they lost by slightly less than they did before.

No it doesn't.  It is entirely possible for the D's to have gotten 6,000 votes in Clark Co. yesterday and still.  The R's got about 8,000 votes.

I worked out the percentage, and the percentage of D votes dropped. 

[Lief 🗽]

NO IT'S NOT

IT'S NOT POSSIBLE FOR THE TOTAL DEMOCRATIC MARGIN TO HAVE GONE UP YESTERDAY IF MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS VOTED YESTERDAY

THAT IS NOT HOW MATH WORKS

[RI]

NO IT'S NOT

IT'S NOT POSSIBLE FOR THE TOTAL DEMOCRATIC MARGIN TO HAVE GONE UP YESTERDAY IF MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS VOTED YESTERDAY

THAT IS NOT HOW MATH WORKS

Lief, I'm pretty sure J.J. understands math. He's in Mensa.

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, I think I found results for yesterday for Clark County. (The data from the Clark County government site is in .exe format which I can't open on my Mac, so I had to hunt around the internet and finally found a right-wing blog that looked semi-legit.)

Democrats: 14,934
Republicans: 9,725
Other: 5,900

So, as should be obvious, more Democrats than Republicans voted in Clark County yesterday.

[Minnesota Mike]

Wow. J.J. must be just messing with us because nobody can be that dense.

[J. J.]

Okay, I think I found results for yesterday for Clark County. (The data from the Clark County government site is in .exe format which I can't open on my Mac, so I had to hunt around the internet and finally found a right-wing blog that looked semi-legit.)

Democrats: 14,934
Republicans: 9,725
Other: 5,900

So, as should be obvious, more Democrats than Republicans voted in Clark County yesterday.

It wasn't matching the percentages I had yesterday at all.  It showed a slight increase in the R numbers. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Okay, I think I found results for yesterday for Clark County. (The data from the Clark County government site is in .exe format which I can't open on my Mac, so I had to hunt around the internet and finally found a right-wing blog that looked semi-legit.)

Democrats: 14,934
Republicans: 9,725
Other: 5,900

So, as should be obvious, more Democrats than Republicans voted in Clark County yesterday.

I have been saving the daily results and those are the numbers I have. 

[Ljube]

Okay, I think I found results for yesterday for Clark County. (The data from the Clark County government site is in .exe format which I can't open on my Mac, so I had to hunt around the internet and finally found a right-wing blog that looked semi-legit.)

Democrats: 14,934
Republicans: 9,725
Other: 5,900

So, as should be obvious, more Democrats than Republicans voted in Clark County yesterday.

That's expected. But more important than that is the final Democratic advantage. What's the threshold between a Democratic win and a Republican win? Is it 60000?

[J. J.]

NO IT'S NOT

IT'S NOT POSSIBLE FOR THE TOTAL DEMOCRATIC MARGIN TO HAVE GONE UP YESTERDAY IF MORE REPUBLICANS THAN DEMOCRATS VOTED YESTERDAY

THAT IS NOT HOW MATH WORKS

The total margin went down, from what I remember.  There were more R's voting than D's.  Look, we can check the numbers tomorrow, because I actually posted them.  

[Minnesota Mike]

Daily margin in Clark County

Oct 20- D+8,800
Oct 21- D+4,495
Oct 22- D+4,796
Oct 23- D+5,399
Oct 24- D+5,209


Total- D+28,699

(does not include absentees)

[Lief 🗽]

Thank you!

[Minnesota Mike]

Okay, I think I found results for yesterday for Clark County. (The data from the Clark County government site is in .exe format which I can't open on my Mac, so I had to hunt around the internet and finally found a right-wing blog that looked semi-legit.)

Democrats: 14,934
Republicans: 9,725
Other: 5,900

So, as should be obvious, more Democrats than Republicans voted in Clark County yesterday.

That's expected. But more important than that is the final Democratic advantage. What's the threshold between a Democratic win and a Republican win? Is it 60000?

Probably closer to 45-50,000 IMO.

[dspNY]

When Bush beat Kerry by about 3 points in Nevada, Kerry's margin in Clark was 26,430

I'd guess Romney has to hold his margin of defeat down to about 40K to have a shot

[J. J.]

Daily margin in Clark County

Oct 20- D+8,800
Oct 21- D+4,495
Oct 22- D+4,796
Oct 23- D+5,399
Oct 24- D+5,209


Total- D+28,699

(does not include absentees)

Thank you.  I had an increase.