The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[pepper11]

Once again, for the seventeenth time, Ohio does not have party registration, those party figures are meaningless, anyone who is treating them seriously (including that CNN reporter) is laughably uninformed about this sort of stuff.

The RNC sent out this memo.

Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points. Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans.


Obviously a bias source. But I doubt they are simply making numbers up. How are they able to compare if there is no party registration?

[Lief 🗽]

Your "party" in Ohio is just a record of the last primary election you voted in. In 2008, 2.4 million Ohioans voted in the Dem primary, 0.5 million in the GOP primary. This year, it was 1.1 million in the Dem primary and 1.2 million in the GOP primary. So you can't really draw any concrete conclusions through a comparison of 2012 and 2008, at least by looking at the party "registration" of the voters. Michael McDonald, a (as far as I know) non-partisan George Mason professor who's sort of an expert on early voting, wrote the following about the state last Friday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Advantage Romney!

But not so fast, let's look a the actual numbers that Cuyahoga so helpfully posts online.

As of Thursday's report, there are 124,967 Cuyahoga registered voters who most recently participated in a Republican primary, or 13 percent of all registered voters. There are 17,133 such persons who have voted, or 21 percent of all voters. So far the story is mostly true; perhaps it is based on an earlier Cuyahoga report.

But what about the voters who last participated in a Democratic primary? They are 343,392 of all registered voters, or 37 percent. 49,720 of these folks have voted, or 60 percent. Comparably, a larger percentage of "Democrats" have voted early in Cuyahoga than Republicans, compared to their base registration statistics.

Advantage Obama!

Before we draw that conclusion, let's understand what is really going on here. 2.4 million Ohioans voted in the 2008 Democratic primary, compared to 0.5 million in the Republican primary. Over the course of four years, some of these people were purged from the voter rolls. In 2012, 1.1 million Ohioans voted in the Democratic primary, and 1.2 million voted in the Republican primary. I suspect that there were a good number of Democrats who crossed over and voted in the Republican primary just because it was the more interesting race from the presidential perspective. In Ohio, all of these folks are now labeled Republicans. "Party" is so hopelessly confounded in Ohio that it is next to meaningless to divine who is ahead.

The Cuyahoga numbers do reveal something about early voters. They are highly participatory people who tend to vote in primaries. There are 458,193, or 49 percent, Cuyahoga registered voters who have no record of voting in any primary. Only 15,835 have voted so far, or 19 percent. Let me put this another way, people who vote the earliest are people who just generally vote.

I thus take the same conclusion from the CNN story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Just because Romney has a better ground game than McCain, that does not mean that Obama has not stepped up efforts, too. The Cuyahoga numbers show evidence that Obama's campaign is at least keeping pace with Republicans, if not outpacing them.

Looking across the Ohio counties, it appears that early voting is up everywhere across the state. Both campaigns are hard at work through the extended early voting period. Ohio is ground zero for this election, but we already knew that.[/quote]

link

[pepper11]

Good info. Thank you.

[Lief 🗽]

No problem. I understand parties, whether the Democrats or the Republicans, twisting the information like this, but the fact that CNN needs to be fact-checked on such a basic fact about early voting in Ohio is really appalling to me.

[J. J.]

Washoe, NV, daily raw :

Total = 8,331
Dems =  3,310 
Reps = 3,541

The R's are creeping up, but as noted, it might be that the D's vote more heavily on weekends.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

[Lief 🗽]

Dems added another 6000 votes to their Clark County margin today. Dominating.

[J. J.]

It looks the R's got well beyond the D's in Clark yesterday.  D% dropped 0.4 points.  8,000 vote gain for R's?

It still could be the weekday voting thing.  If not the D's are in danger of getting less than half the vote in Clark County, NV.

[J. J.]

ME is bucking the trend:


ME:
2008
Dem
   41.1%
Rep
   27.7%
No/Oth
   31.2%

10/22/12:
Dem    44.3%
Rep    28.1%
Green    2.4%
None    25.3%

Looking at the absentee applications, D's are going to be increasing that lead. 

[J. J.]

NC:

Dem    50.7%
Rep    30.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

Gap is down 0.7 points from yesterday, which should be disturbing because this should be the D's top week. 

From the same day comparison, D's are running 8.3 points behind where they were in 2008. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Your "party" in Ohio is just a record of the last primary election you voted in. In 2008, 2.4 million Ohioans voted in the Dem primary, 0.5 million in the GOP primary. This year, it was 1.1 million in the Dem primary and 1.2 million in the GOP primary. So you can't really draw any concrete conclusions through a comparison of 2012 and 2008, at least by looking at the party "registration" of the voters. Michael McDonald, a (as far as I know) non-partisan George Mason professor who's sort of an expert on early voting, wrote the following about the state last Friday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Advantage Romney!

But not so fast, let's look a the actual numbers that Cuyahoga so helpfully posts online.

As of Thursday's report, there are 124,967 Cuyahoga registered voters who most recently participated in a Republican primary, or 13 percent of all registered voters. There are 17,133 such persons who have voted, or 21 percent of all voters. So far the story is mostly true; perhaps it is based on an earlier Cuyahoga report.

But what about the voters who last participated in a Democratic primary? They are 343,392 of all registered voters, or 37 percent. 49,720 of these folks have voted, or 60 percent. Comparably, a larger percentage of "Democrats" have voted early in Cuyahoga than Republicans, compared to their base registration statistics.

Advantage Obama!

Before we draw that conclusion, let's understand what is really going on here. 2.4 million Ohioans voted in the 2008 Democratic primary, compared to 0.5 million in the Republican primary. Over the course of four years, some of these people were purged from the voter rolls. In 2012, 1.1 million Ohioans voted in the Democratic primary, and 1.2 million voted in the Republican primary. I suspect that there were a good number of Democrats who crossed over and voted in the Republican primary just because it was the more interesting race from the presidential perspective. In Ohio, all of these folks are now labeled Republicans. "Party" is so hopelessly confounded in Ohio that it is next to meaningless to divine who is ahead.

The Cuyahoga numbers do reveal something about early voters. They are highly participatory people who tend to vote in primaries. There are 458,193, or 49 percent, Cuyahoga registered voters who have no record of voting in any primary. Only 15,835 have voted so far, or 19 percent. Let me put this another way, people who vote the earliest are people who just generally vote.

I thus take the same conclusion from the CNN story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Just because Romney has a better ground game than McCain, that does not mean that Obama has not stepped up efforts, too. The Cuyahoga numbers show evidence that Obama's campaign is at least keeping pace with Republicans, if not outpacing them.

Looking across the Ohio counties, it appears that early voting is up everywhere across the state. Both campaigns are hard at work through the extended early voting period. Ohio is ground zero for this election, but we already knew that.

link
[/quote]

Makes you wonder why Kasich and Husted and the boys didn't switch over to a traditional registration system. Since they are willing to do such other activities to help their guy win.

[krazen1211]

NC:

Dem    50.7%
Rep    30.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

Gap is down 0.7 points from yesterday, which should be disturbing because this should be the D's top week. 

From the same day comparison, D's are running 8.3 points behind where they were in 2008. 

And it went more old and more white. too.

[Dan the Roman]

NC:

Dem    50.7%
Rep    30.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

Gap is down 0.7 points from yesterday, which should be disturbing because this should be the D's top week. 

From the same day comparison, D's are running 8.3 points behind where they were in 2008. 

Actual Changes

Democrats +54K
Republicans +58K
Indies +53K

So its only a net shift 4,000 votes Republican in a turnout of one million.

Whites +114K
Blacks +69K

[Tender Branson]

About 1/3 of the 2008 early vote is already in in NC and the Democrats hold a 51-31 advantage right now, compared to a 51-30 advantage in 2008. Not bad.

[krazen1211]

Iowa today:

R: 99680
D: 155089
I: 67553

R: 30.9%
D: 48.1%
I: 20.9%

Iowa today:

R: 118716
D: 175019
I: 81927

R: 31.6%
D: 46.7%
I: 21.8%


Compared to 2004, both D and R are roughly 20k below total absentee counts. I's are 40k below. That is very nice as these are liberal leaning I's.

[J. J.]

About 1/3 of the 2008 early vote is already in in NC and the Democrats hold a 51-31 advantage right now, compared to a 51-30 advantage in 2008. Not bad.

Terrible, actually.  At this point in time, it was something like R 27 D 56.3. 

Black voters were at this point 29.3% of the electorate. 

[J. J.]

NC:

Dem    50.7%
Rep    30.5%
None/Oth    18.8%

Gap is down 0.7 points from yesterday, which should be disturbing because this should be the D's top week. 

From the same day comparison, D's are running 8.3 points behind where they were in 2008. 

And it went more old and more white. too.

It's running, at the same point in time about 1.1 point more black.  Turnout has not declined among black people. 

It is running older, substantially.  18-44 is running about 12 points lower, currently. 

[Lief 🗽]

Including absentees, Democrats now have a 30,500 raw vote margin in Clark County. Republicans are coming nowhere close to closing the gap.

[J. J.]

Including absentees, Democrats now have a 30,500 raw vote margin in Clark County. Republicans are coming nowhere close to closing the gap.

The D's had an 83,800 vote gap the last time, at the end.  I have no question that Obama will carry Clark Co., but it might be a greatly reduced rate. 

I'd really be waiting until the weekend for solid trends.

And, the gap has been decreasing slightly. 

[Lief 🗽]

No it hasn't? It was 25,000 end of the day Tuesday, and 30,500 end of the day Wednesday. How is that a decreasing gap?

[Skill and Chance]

Including absentees, Democrats now have a 30,500 raw vote margin in Clark County. Republicans are coming nowhere close to closing the gap.

The D's had an 83,800 vote gap the last time, at the end.  I have no question that Obama will carry Clark Co., but it might be a greatly reduced rate. 

I'd really be waiting until the weekend for solid trends.

And, the gap has been decreasing slightly. 

McCain didn't push early voting they way Romney has.  More Republicans are voting before election day.  That doesn't necessarily mean more Republicans voting overall.

[5280]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

[krazen1211]

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

Where?

[Tender Branson]

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

Where?

In 5280's dreams.

[5280]

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

Where?

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

[Tender Branson]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

According to this narrative, Ken Buck would have won in 2010:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He did not.

Besides, the SUSA poll for CO Indies you are quoting was conducted just after the 1st debate, so things might have changed in favor of Obama again. Especially CO Indies, which are a Obama-leaning folk. If Romney led by just 4 after the 1st debate, there's a good chance Obama is leading again by big margins with them.