The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

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So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida Early Voting Update

Voted ballots:

Party         Voted         %
REP         315,987    45%
DEM         277,253    39%
IND         110,188    16%
Total         703,428    

 

Outstanding requests:
Party       Requested            %
REP         688,438    40%
DEM         689,990    40%
IND         337,446    20%
Total      1,715,874    

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

[krazen1211]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

[Alcon]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

I hope you don't actually think that's how polls work.

Are all counties reporting totals?

[Dan the Roman]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

I hope you don't actually think that's how polls work.

Are all counties reporting totals?

Look at the bottom of that page.

Also:

Counties update at different speeds.

Some counties do not include in-person numbers.

Some counties wait days to open returned absentees.

Worth noting that the one major county that both seems to count in-person and absentee numbers is both higher than that(15%) and has "Democrats" performing about 10 points better with returned absentees than with the requests everyone has been discussing re: party shifts.

[Minnesota Mike]

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Big turnout in Clark County would be a good thing for Dems.

[Lief 🗽]

Hopefully the NV SOS reports party registration numbers of the early voters.

[J. J.]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

[Lief 🗽]

I think I'll trust someone who actually knows what they're talking about when it comes to early vote statistics over someone who thinks the Bradley Effect was a thing that happened in 2008, thanks JJ.

[Dan the Roman]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

Eh, you have the same problem with those stats as you do with Early voting. The current electorate is less white than 2008, but also the gap between Ds and Rs is less. The same is true of North Carolina. Republicans may have closed the gap by 70,000, but Democrats closed the gap by about 350K in terms of the White-Black/Hispanic/Other numbers. On election day in 2008, NC registration was 73.1% white. Today it is 71.4% white. Nonwhites are registering independent.

Obama on a simple demographic measurement has probably picked up abut a net 75,000 or so voters since November 2008. He has probably lost far more than that because of his poor performance as President and generally poor poll ratings, but I wish hacks would shut up about the supposed D-R % gap as if it meant anything at all. It does not. In NC the Racial demographics, and age breakdown of the white vote matter far more.

[krazen1211]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

If Early voting in 2008 was 60-38, this fellow kindly trashed these junk polls showing early voting to be 67-33 this time around.

[krazen1211]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Last week Obama had 74% of the early vote. Now it's 66%. People must be changing their early votes, lol.

I hope you don't actually think that's how polls work.

Are all counties reporting totals?

Not all, no, but the big ones are. A cursory glance of the big counties shows that they aren't even close to 19%, let alone 21% as of 7 days ago.

[Brittain33]

Not all, no, but the big ones are. A cursory glance of the big counties shows that they aren't even close to 19%, let alone 21% as of 7 days ago.

Dan noted that counties don't always update their numbers daily and report them.

[Dan the Roman]

Not all, no, but the big ones are. A cursory glance of the big counties shows that they aren't even close to 19%, let alone 21% as of 7 days ago.

Dan noted that counties don't always update their numbers daily and report them.

In fairness, both Cuyahoga and Franklin appear to do so, at least for in-person. Whats unclear is whether anyone is counting absentees as they come in. Counties clearly did so prior to the start of in-person voting, but they did not do so in an organized manner. Numbers were released, but it was unclear if these ballots were all of the returned ballots, or some selected at random.

Really there is no reason for county officials, dealing with in-person voting, a Supreme Court fight over in-person hours two weeks from now, and a whole lot of other stuff to bother going through every piece of mail they receive every day.

As a consequence I would probably use a number around 80% of the absentee requests. Which still gets you a number probably around 20% or so of 2008 turnout. Worth noting though its likely the electorate is smaller now, and that may well end up being 22-23%.

Iowa figures are almost certainly bunk though.

[J. J.]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

Eh, you have the same problem with those stats as you do with Early voting. The current electorate is less white than 2008, but also the gap between Ds and Rs is less. The same is true of North Carolina. Republicans may have closed the gap by 70,000, but Democrats closed the gap by about 350K in terms of the White-Black/Hispanic/Other numbers. On election day in 2008, NC registration was 73.1% white. Today it is 71.4% white. Nonwhites are registering independent.

Obama on a simple demographic measurement has probably picked up abut a net 75,000 or so voters since November 2008. He has probably lost far more than that because of his poor performance as President and generally poor poll ratings, but I wish hacks would shut up about the supposed D-R % gap as if it meant anything at all. It does not. In NC the Racial demographics, and age breakdown of the white vote matter far more.

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

[Minnesota Mike]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

[J. J.]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Now, how do these compare to last time?

[Minnesota Mike]

Day 1 2008 (Sorry no link. Being the geek I am I had these numbers saved on my computer)

Total 6,554

Dems 3,909 (59.64%)
Rep 1,668 (25.45%)
Other 977 (14.91%)

FWIW Republicans do hold a small voter registration advantage in Washoe county. Any Democratic lead, even a smaller one than in 2008, is good news for the Dems.

[Cliffy]

Nevada is going to prob be the toughest battleground for Romney.   The party was a mess thanks to Paulbots, lot of challenges there, I think they did a great job recovering but may be to little.  Pretty sure the Dems have a pretty good registration advantage.

This is a good guy to follow on NV
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

[J. J.]

Day 1 2008 (Sorry no link. Being the geek I am I had these numbers saved on my computer)

Total 6,554

Dems 3,909 (59.64%)
Rep 1,668 (25.45%)
Other 977 (14.91%)

FWIW Republicans do hold a small voter registration advantage in Washoe county. Any Democratic lead, even a smaller one than in 2008, is good news for the Dems.

Not really.  This is a turnout situation, so comparing 2008 to today is a better indicator.  Obama won it 55 to 42, but he probably won the early voters, since that was the pattern in other states.

[Dan the Roman]

Michael McDonald's released another update on early voting (link).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far there's very little evidence from the early voting numbers that Republicans have some huge enthusiasm advantage.

He's using the Marist crap, not the actual ballots. 

The "one stop" registration and mail registrations not processed was just under a 40,000 vote net gain in 2008.  The R's had a 70,000 + gain.  On election day, there will be 30-40 K more Republicans than there were in 2008.  Obama's MOV was just under 14,200.

NC is gone for Obama.

Eh, you have the same problem with those stats as you do with Early voting. The current electorate is less white than 2008, but also the gap between Ds and Rs is less. The same is true of North Carolina. Republicans may have closed the gap by 70,000, but Democrats closed the gap by about 350K in terms of the White-Black/Hispanic/Other numbers. On election day in 2008, NC registration was 73.1% white. Today it is 71.4% white. Nonwhites are registering independent.

Obama on a simple demographic measurement has probably picked up abut a net 75,000 or so voters since November 2008. He has probably lost far more than that because of his poor performance as President and generally poor poll ratings, but I wish hacks would shut up about the supposed D-R % gap as if it meant anything at all. It does not. In NC the Racial demographics, and age breakdown of the white vote matter far more.

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

The median age fell 8 years in two days. I would hold your horses on declarations about that. Secondly, black democrats vote very differently than white democrats. If Blacks are voting we know they are voting 95-5 Obama. Black Democrats will vote 99-1 Obama. White Democrats 75-25. Black Independents 85-15.

Demographics are especially important in a state like NC, far more important than Party ID given the number of DINOS.

[Dan the Roman]

Basically my point is that if Blacks are up 2 Points, but the D-R gap down, those missing Ds almost certainly were not Obama voters, and probably weren't in 2008.

Raw numbers matter here. More Democrats are turning out than 2008. More Blacks are turning out. More Republicans are also turning out. All you can do with EV/GOTV is get your voters out. Everywhere Early voting is happening, Democrats are voting. That Republicans are voting at a higher rate as well is obviously a factor that must be taken into account. But it does not indicate a failure on the part of Democrats, or any dropoff or sign of weakness. Rather it indicates Republican strength.

[Cliffy]

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http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots

[Skill and Chance]

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http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots

Does he account for the uncontested D primary this year vs. 2008?

[Tender Branson]

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http://www.lancastereaglegazette.com/viewart/20121020/NEWS01/310200012/GOP-voters-flock-early-ballots

Isn't it more complicated in OH, because ballot requests are measured as a percentage of those who voted in the presidential primaries ?

But yeah, I guess it's quite hard for Obama to beat ANY early voting numbers from 2008, because 2008 was simply 2008 ...

But even though Republicans gain among early voters, we of course still don't know how the Indies vote and how many cross over in the 2 parties to support the other guy.