The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Cliffy]

Colorado mail-in ballots returned to date:

Republicans: 10,884
Democrats: 8,516
Unaffiliated: 5,727

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_21810412/more-than-25k-colo-voters-have-cast-ballots

According to the Post, conservative Douglas County (suburban Denver) leads in returns thus far.

[Dan the Roman]

Iowa absentees

Yesterday:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I


Today:

48.8% D
30.5% R
20.5% I

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

[J. J.]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

[Alcon]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

[J. J.]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't think anybody expects the Democrats will get the same percentage margins over Republicans in early voting in 2012 that they did in 2008 simply because this year the Romney Campaign is making an effort in Early Voting while McCain did not. To me the more interesting numbers will be comparing raw Democratic turnout in 2012 vs 2008. The Republican talking point the past couple of years has been that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout will be down this year, so far that does not seem to be the case. If Democrats show up in the numbers they did in 2008 Obama wins, simple as that.

[Cliffy]

I don't think anybody expects the Democrats will get the same percentage margins over Republicans in early voting in 2012 that they did in 2008 simply because this year the Romney Campaign is making an effort in Early Voting while McCain did not. To me the more interesting numbers will be comparing raw Democratic turnout in 2012 vs 2008. The Republican talking point the past couple of years has been that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout will be down this year, so far that does not seem to be the case. If Democrats show up in the numbers they did in 2008 Obama wins, simple as that.

IF, right now you are correct. 

[krazen1211]

Iowa absentees

Yesterday:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I


Today:

48.8% D
30.5% R
20.5% I

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

That's true. Thankfully, the Republicans have more voters than the Democrats and have turned out at higher rates in the past 2 presidential elections.

[Dan the Roman]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

Not this week. Nor  in absolute terms.

10/12

Democrats 110,053
Republicans 57,341
Indies          38,801

Gap: 52,712

Today

Democrats 147,234
Republicans 92,072
Indies          61,833

Gap: 55,162

The Democratic absolute lead is growing and has been for a week and a half. But because that lead is less than the 17% margin overall from 2008, and turnout is on track to exceed 2008, the relative gap is falling.

[J. J.]

I don't think anybody expects the Democrats will get the same percentage margins over Republicans in early voting in 2012 that they did in 2008 simply because this year the Romney Campaign is making an effort in Early Voting while McCain did not. To me the more interesting numbers will be comparing raw Democratic turnout in 2012 vs 2008. The Republican talking point the past couple of years has been that Democratic enthusiasm and turnout will be down this year, so far that does not seem to be the case. If Democrats show up in the numbers they did in 2008 Obama wins, simple as that.

Not a good comparison.  The raw numbers are different percentages of turnout.

[J. J.]

Actually, you should note that there was a massive influx of D requests at the start (noted by Tender Branson on page 2 or 3).  It is like the D's entered into battle and fired all their ammunition with the first shot. 

The requests have been soaring and the percentages have been closing.

Not this week. Nor  in absolute terms.

10/12

Democrats 110,053
Republicans 57,341
Indies          38,801

Gap: 52,712

Today

Democrats 147,234
Republicans 92,072
Indies          61,833

Gap: 55,162

The Democratic absolute lead is growing and has been for a week and a half. But because that lead is less than the 17% margin overall from 2008, and turnout is on track to exceed 2008, the relative gap is falling.

Iowa's absentee requests are interesting:

Dem    49.1%
Rep    29.0%
None/Oth    21.9%
   
in 1998, they were:

Dem 47
Rep 28.2
Other 24.8

Both the R and D have improved, the the D's still hold the edge.  It has closed a bit.

Today, in terms of absentee ballot requests, Iowa Republicans have closed the gap below the 2008 levels, but not by a lot.

Party Reg    
Dem    48.1%
Rep    29.7%
None/Oth    22.1%

[Cliffy]

I read that if the GOP keeps the diff at 60k or less in Iowa they should win.  Thoughts?

[Alcon]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore. 

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

[Dan the Roman]

Actually, you should note that there was a massive influx of D requests at the start (noted by Tender Branson on page 2 or 3).  It is like the D's entered into battle and fired all their ammunition with the first shot. 

The requests have been soaring and the percentages have been closing.

Not this week. Nor  in absolute terms.

10/12

Democrats 110,053
Republicans 57,341
Indies          38,801

Gap: 52,712

Today

Democrats 147,234
Republicans 92,072
Indies          61,833

Gap: 55,162

The Democratic absolute lead is growing and has been for a week and a half. But because that lead is less than the 17% margin overall from 2008, and turnout is on track to exceed 2008, the relative gap is falling.

Iowa's absentee requests are interesting:

Dem    49.1%
Rep    29.0%
None/Oth    21.9%
   
in 1998, they were:

Dem 47
Rep 28.2
Other 24.8

Both the R and D have improved, the the D's still hold the edge.  It has closed a bit.

Today, in terms of absentee ballot requests, Iowa Republicans have closed the gap below the 2008 levels, but not by a lot.

Party Reg    
Dem    48.1%
Rep    29.7%
None/Oth    22.1%

If in the remaining early voting period the Democrats were to gain 85,000 votes, the Republicans 75,000, and Independents 53,000, the raw numbers would be about

232,000 D
167,000 R
115,000 I

Or in percentages

45% D
32.5% R
22.5% I

In effect, the GOP would have closed the gap to 12.5%.

But the Democratic net advantage would have increased to 65,000 votes in absolute terms compared to about 43,000 in 2004. Romney would need to outperform Bush by 12,000 votes on election day with a lower election day turnout(since Iowa's electorate is not increasing) in order to win.

[Badger]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore.  

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

Yeah, JJ stated it poorly, but IF he's correct the point remains Democrats will reap a lower net vote total from pre-election day voting than in 2008.

[Dan the Roman]

I read that if the GOP keeps the diff at 60k or less in Iowa they should win.  Thoughts?

Depends on total turnout. Ie. if 50% of voters vote early there are less election day voters left. So a 55,000 vote gap looks very different on a 600,000 turnout and a 450,000 one.

In 2004 the GOP trailed by about 53,000, 194K-141K. In 2008 they trailed by 93K, 250K to 157K.

Compared to 2008, Republicans are down 65K and Democrats are down 103K. Compared to 2004 Democrats are down 47K and Republicans are down 49K.

[Cliffy]

Thanks,

[Dan the Roman]

Thanks,

Will be interesting as my guess right now is about a 63,000 Democratic lead in the end.

[J. J.]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore.  

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

Yeah, JJ stated it poorly, but IF he's correct the point remains Democrats will reap a lower net vote total from pre-election day voting than in 2008.

Well, it was top heavy initially with Democratic voters.  Even from the start, the percentage of D voters has dropped.  Since yesterday, the number of D voters has decreased relative to the R's.  The applications for absentee ballots are running more strongly for R's than D's and the percentage of R's have increased and D's have decreased in terms of percentage of the vote.

The percentage difference between R and D voters is smaller than 2008 and it appears that R's will be a larger percentage of the electorate in IA (and NC and OH) that it was in 2008.

[Alcon]

A relative drop is not an absolute one. More Democratic ballots were received yesterday than Republicans, as has been the case all week. Democrats gained about a net 1500 votes this week.

Actually, that is wrong.  The gap has been closing all week.  Branson initially posted how great the D's were doing.  They are not anymore.  

What part of that is wrong?

That the D's are gaining.  The gap has been closing, long term.

He said the Democrats have been gaining in raw votes.  You said "Actually, that is wrong," and then noted that their proportion of the ballots has decreased.  Those are different things.  You are awful.

Yeah, JJ stated it poorly, but IF he's correct the point remains Democrats will reap a lower net vote total from pre-election day voting than in 2008.

Absolutely.  Decreasing proportionally below 2008 numbers is bad for Democrats, unless it's just a matter of shifting Election Day GOP votes to GOP early voters.  Considering that would likely reflect higher enthusiasm among Republicans of all stripes, including sporadic voters, that's good for the GOP.

A net increase in votes with a decrease in proportional share is probably bad for the Democrats.  J. J. is right about that -- his "correction" was just wrong.

[greenforest32]

Any forecasts on what percent of the total vote(s) will be done in September and October?

Check out my link above.

I guess Prof. McDonald will create a 2012 page soon.

Thanks. You can really see the dominance of vote by mail in Colorado there. I think they may become the third postal voting state.

I just came across this link[1] with more stats on this, including for all the states. I didn't realize vote-by-mail was such a big thing in Arizona too.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/07/us/voting-by-mail.html

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

Any forecasts on what percent of the total vote(s) will be done in September and October?

Check out my link above.

I guess Prof. McDonald will create a 2012 page soon.

Thanks. You can really see the dominance of vote by mail in Colorado there. I think they may become the third postal voting state.

I just came across this link[1] with more stats on this, including for all the states. I didn't realize vote-by-mail was such a big thing in Arizona too.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/10/07/us/voting-by-mail.html

while their not swing states, Oregon and Washington with almost all votes by mail, so a postale problem could be incredibly serious.

[Cliffy]

Ohio updated this morning, 11.1% early voting in.  Looks like PPP, Marist and SUSA are still not credible been plenty of time now for the results to catch up...... 

Keep lauding those polls

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

Total 387,724
Dem 191,417 (49.37%)
Rep 125,350 (32.33%)
UNA 70,306 (18.13%)
Lib 651 (0.17%)

White 259,736 (66.99%)
Black 111,781 (28.83%)

Total turnout and turnout for both parties is up from same point in 2008. Reps have cut into Dems percentage advantage which is not surprising since the are emphasizing early voting much more this cycle.

[Brittain33]

Sounds good, Romney can improve marginally over McCain, win NC, and lose the election.