Predict final maps

[morgieb]

Guys, in no world is mondale84 a bigger Democratic hack than pbrower. That's his niche.

Don't forget Bandit.

[oompa]

I take offense to the suggestion that I'm a troll. I also take offense against the idea that I hate middle and working class people. Given I spent my formative years growing up on a farm, the idea that I hate the working classes is a tad ridiculous, given that's where I basically came from.

Hey Rhodie... did you grow up in Rhodesia or in Zimbabwe? Quick question. Do you think the quote about "justice and freedom" in your signature is compatible with the display of the Rhodesian flag?

[Thomas D]

Obama 297-241

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I don't think anybody's in a position to predict what the final results will be.  If it were today, however, I think it would probably be this:

Obama/Biden- 332
Romney/Ryan- 206

Some of these other maps are just ridiculous.  Mondale84 has Obama carrying Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, NE-1, and South Dakota; An Actual Right-Wing Hack has Romney carrying Connecticut and New Jersey.  Believe me, the only one of those that I actually see as a possibility is Obama carrying Indiana (since he carried it last time), and even that is unlikely.  I just saw a poll recently that showed something like 92% of McCain supporters from 2008 supporting Romney this time, so I don't see how any of the McCain states (AZ, GA, MO, MT, SD) go for Obama this time.  Montana and Arizona might be competitive in another year, and Missouri would normally be a toss-up (at least for me), but with the political climate the way it is, I don't see it happening this year.  And since all signs suggest this will be a close election, I don't see how Romney carries Connecticut or New Jersey, although if a Republican were to win comfortably (again, unlikely ever since the realignment of '92), I could see that happening, and even more likely in a GOP sweep or landslide.  But again, not this year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Guys, in no world is mondale84 a bigger Democratic hack than pbrower. That's his niche.

Don't forget Bandit.

Bandit is no Democrat.

[California8429]

The public probably has it right at the moment.

http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/

[Supersonic]

The public probably has it right at the moment.

http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/

Wow, clicking on WI, CO and IA shows some serious trend towards Romney since August 10th.

Ohio however, remains Obama.

Edit: The decline in Florida too is noticeable.

[5280]

The public probably has it right at the moment.

http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/

Wow, clicking on WI, CO and IA shows some serious trend towards Romney since August 10th.

Ohio however, remains Obama.

Edit: The decline in Florida too is noticeable.

As soon as you said that, the Obama lead increased for CO and among other swing states probably cause of the members on here posting their maps. I checked it out a few hours ago.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The public probably has it right at the moment.

http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/

Nah.  Those sorts of maps always have a lag from early maps that don't get changed affecting the overall average.

[AmericanNation]

Romney 295
Obama 243

So your predication has nothing to do with polls.

It has quite a bit to do with polls.  Obama is in a lot of trouble in Wisconsin and Iowa.  NH and CO is a theory I'm working on.  Romney is probably more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Obama.  Ohio is a hard read at present, but it could go either way. 

Obama has consistently lead in Virginia, Ohio, and WI, and lead in far more polls than Romney in IA and FL.

Yes.  He has also been consistently under 50%.  He has consistently looked beatable in those states (Ohio looks odd admittedly).  He has been consistently outspending Romney in those states by huge margins.  He has been attempting to demagogue his opponent consistently, which may work (temporarily).  Most of that stuff doesn't work forever, it boomerangs on you.       

[Politico]

Romney 295
Obama 243

So your predication has nothing to do with polls.

It has quite a bit to do with polls.  Obama is in a lot of trouble in Wisconsin and Iowa.  NH and CO is a theory I'm working on.  Romney is probably more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Obama.  Ohio is a hard read at present, but it could go either way.  

Obama has consistently lead in Virginia, Ohio, and WI, and lead in far more polls than Romney in IA and FL.

Yes.  He has also been consistently under 50%.  He has consistently looked beatable in those states (Ohio looks odd admittedly).  He has been consistently outspending Romney in those states by huge margins.  He has been attempting to demagogue his opponent consistently, which may work (temporarily).  Most of that stuff doesn't work forever, it boomerangs on you.      

I agree. I think people are already becoming fatigued by the relentless attacks on Romney. Once the debates roll around and people see Romney and Ryan are safe, fresh alternatives (especially in comparison to an over the hill Joe Biden), it's game over for Team Obama and their broken record. In that way this election is going to be like 1980 all over again. I just wish the debates were closer to Election Day.

[pbrower2a]

Romney 295
Obama 243

So your predication has nothing to do with polls.

It has quite a bit to do with polls.  Obama is in a lot of trouble in Wisconsin and Iowa.  NH and CO is a theory I'm working on.  Romney is probably more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Obama.  Ohio is a hard read at present, but it could go either way. 

Obama has consistently lead in Virginia, Ohio, and WI, and lead in far more polls than Romney in IA and FL.

Yes.  He has also been consistently under 50%.  He has consistently looked beatable in those states (Ohio looks odd admittedly).  He has been consistently outspending Romney in those states by huge margins.  He has been attempting to demagogue his opponent consistently, which may work (temporarily).  Most of that stuff doesn't work forever, it boomerangs on you.       

Dubya was consistently under 50% in the latter part of the 2004 campaign season, yet he won. People may have been getting queasy about a wars that did not transmute into glorious and unqualified triumphs, and the economy had yet to go into the toilet. Liberals saw signs of such... and were undeniably right about such, although it would take more time.

Incumbents can win with approval in the high 40s against an opponent with huge flaws. John Kerry was a weak campaigner, and Mitt Romney has sold out to interests who offend multitudes while failing to offer certainty of what he is.   

[Politico]

Romney 295
Obama 243

So your predication has nothing to do with polls.

It has quite a bit to do with polls.  Obama is in a lot of trouble in Wisconsin and Iowa.  NH and CO is a theory I'm working on.  Romney is probably more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Obama.  Ohio is a hard read at present, but it could go either way.  

Obama has consistently lead in Virginia, Ohio, and WI, and lead in far more polls than Romney in IA and FL.

Yes.  He has also been consistently under 50%.  He has consistently looked beatable in those states (Ohio looks odd admittedly).  He has been consistently outspending Romney in those states by huge margins.  He has been attempting to demagogue his opponent consistently, which may work (temporarily).  Most of that stuff doesn't work forever, it boomerangs on you.      

Dubya was consistently under 50% in the latter part of the 2004 campaign season, yet he won.

Barely. Take 60,000 votes in Ohio from Bush and give them to Kerry, and Kerry wins. I think it's safe to say:

A) Without Kerry's gaffe of "I voted for [it] before I voted against [it]," Bush loses.

B) Without the last minute Bin Laden tape, Bush loses.

C) Without the argument of "do not change horses in midstream" (i.e., do not change president in the middle of the war), Bush loses.

And that's back when unemployment and gas prices were, what, 5% and $2/gallon? You guys are in for a rude awakening if you think Obama is easily going to repeat the 2004 Bush squeaker based upon Obama's personal favorability ratings, which closely mirror Bush's in 2004.

[pbrower2a]

Romney 295
Obama 243

So your predication has nothing to do with polls.

It has quite a bit to do with polls.  Obama is in a lot of trouble in Wisconsin and Iowa.  NH and CO is a theory I'm working on.  Romney is probably more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Obama.  Ohio is a hard read at present, but it could go either way.  

Obama has consistently lead in Virginia, Ohio, and WI, and lead in far more polls than Romney in IA and FL.

Yes.  He has also been consistently under 50%.  He has consistently looked beatable in those states (Ohio looks odd admittedly).  He has been consistently outspending Romney in those states by huge margins.  He has been attempting to demagogue his opponent consistently, which may work (temporarily).  Most of that stuff doesn't work forever, it boomerangs on you.      

Dubya was consistently under 50% in the latter part of the 2004 campaign season, yet he won.

Barely. Take 60,000 votes in Ohio from Bush and give them to Kerry, and Kerry wins. I think it's safe to say:

A) Without Kerry's gaffe of "I voted for [it] before I voted against [it]," Bush loses.

B) Without the last minute Bin Laden tape, Bush loses.

C) Without the argument of "do not change horses in midstream" (i.e., do not change president in the middle of the war), Bush loses.

And that's back when unemployment and gas prices were, what, 5% and $2/gallon? You guys are in for a rude awakening if you think Obama is easily going to repeat the 2004 Bush squeaker based upon Obama's personal favorability ratings, which closely mirror Bush's in 2004.

The approval ratings for Dubya were steadily falling. Those for President Obama have been steady for two years. Unemployment is around 8% because of an economic collapse that began when Dubya was President because of economic choices that Dubya and rubberstamp Republicans made. Republicans in Congress are extremely unpopular. I saw signs for $5.49-a-gallon gasoline before the economic meltdown... in 2008. Gasoline prices plummeted as people got scared that they might see a reprise of the economic horrors of 1929-1933.

It is of course possible that President Obama will do things that cause him to be defeated. Time is running out for that. He has done a reasonably-good job of lowering expectations -- much like FDR in the 1930s -- for any quick fix in the economy. The Republicans have their own 'fix', but that involves monumental sacrifices by the common man on behalf of economic elites who might as well say "Trust me!"

Romney/Ryan scares the Hell out of traditional Democratic interests. Nobody wants Third World pay and the complete destruction of the economic safety net in return for vague promises that the things will be better for the common man twenty or thirty years later -- except people who can profiteer from such.

Romney/Ryan is at least as capable of political collapse as is President Obama.       

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Romney 295
Obama 243

So your predication has nothing to do with polls.

It has quite a bit to do with polls.  Obama is in a lot of trouble in Wisconsin and Iowa.  NH and CO is a theory I'm working on.  Romney is probably more likely to win Florida and Virginia than Obama.  Ohio is a hard read at present, but it could go either way. 

Obama has consistently lead in Virginia, Ohio, and WI, and lead in far more polls than Romney in IA and FL.

Yes.  He has also been consistently under 50%.  He has consistently looked beatable in those states (Ohio looks odd admittedly).  He has been consistently outspending Romney in those states by huge margins.  He has been attempting to demagogue his opponent consistently, which may work (temporarily).  Most of that stuff doesn't work forever, it boomerangs on you.       

Then how come it worked on Dick DeVos?

[Rhodie]

I take offense to the suggestion that I'm a troll. I also take offense against the idea that I hate middle and working class people. Given I spent my formative years growing up on a farm, the idea that I hate the working classes is a tad ridiculous, given that's where I basically came from.

Hey Rhodie... did you grow up in Rhodesia or in Zimbabwe? Quick question. Do you think the quote about "justice and freedom" in your signature is compatible with the display of the Rhodesian flag?

Its not for me to derail this thread by answering your question here. Make a thread devoted to that topic and then I'll answer your question (for the record I did grow up in Zimbabwe although I was born when it was still Rhodesia).

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

The hack in me wants it to be this:

Romney/Ryan - 50.4%, 311 EVs
Obama/Biden - 47.5%, 227 EVs

But the sensible human being in me believes that this is a far more likely result:

Obama/Biden - 51.3%, 304 EVs
Romney/Ryan - 47.7%, 234 EVs

With tossups:

Obama/Biden - 227 EVs
Romney/Ryan - 206 EVs
Tossups - 105 EVs

[Supersonic]

You don't think Iowa or New Hampshire are tossups?

[oompa]

I take offense to the suggestion that I'm a troll. I also take offense against the idea that I hate middle and working class people. Given I spent my formative years growing up on a farm, the idea that I hate the working classes is a tad ridiculous, given that's where I basically came from.

Hey Rhodie... did you grow up in Rhodesia or in Zimbabwe? Quick question. Do you think the quote about "justice and freedom" in your signature is compatible with the display of the Rhodesian flag?

Its not for me to derail this thread by answering your question here. Make a thread devoted to that topic and then I'll answer your question (for the record I did grow up in Zimbabwe although I was born when it was still Rhodesia).

My intention was not to get an explanation, just a simple yes or no answer. Starting a whole new thread for that topic seemed unnecessary. 

[Rhodie]

I take offense to the suggestion that I'm a troll. I also take offense against the idea that I hate middle and working class people. Given I spent my formative years growing up on a farm, the idea that I hate the working classes is a tad ridiculous, given that's where I basically came from.

Hey Rhodie... did you grow up in Rhodesia or in Zimbabwe? Quick question. Do you think the quote about "justice and freedom" in your signature is compatible with the display of the Rhodesian flag?

Its not for me to derail this thread by answering your question here. Make a thread devoted to that topic and then I'll answer your question (for the record I did grow up in Zimbabwe although I was born when it was still Rhodesia).

My intention was not to get an explanation, just a simple yes or no answer. Starting a whole new thread for that topic seemed unnecessary. 

Well in that case yes.

[opebo]

With the Ryan bump, and my fear that his popularity is going to continue to grow with the white working class:

[Oldiesfreak1854]

My map is this (with tossups but no leaners):

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama 332, 51.5%
Romney 206, 47.5%

I'm fairly confident in this result

EDIT: NY switched to >50% Obama. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I take offense to the suggestion that I'm a troll. I also take offense against the idea that I hate middle and working class people. Given I spent my formative years growing up on a farm, the idea that I hate the working classes is a tad ridiculous, given that's where I basically came from.

Hey Rhodie... did you grow up in Rhodesia or in Zimbabwe? Quick question. Do you think the quote about "justice and freedom" in your signature is compatible with the display of the Rhodesian flag?

Its not for me to derail this thread by answering your question here. Make a thread devoted to that topic and then I'll answer your question (for the record I did grow up in Zimbabwe although I was born when it was still Rhodesia).

My intention was not to get an explanation, just a simple yes or no answer. Starting a whole new thread for that topic seemed unnecessary. 

Considering Rhodie's quote appears to be from one Ian Smith, I would certainly hope it would be seen as compatible. Whether Smith's quote is compatible with what Smith did with his life is another question entirely.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama 332, 51.5%
Romney 206, 47.5%

I'm fairly confident in this result

EDIT: NY switched to >50% Obama. 

my map in August.  I win.