Miles' Election Map Thread

[JacobNC]

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

I'm thinking Roy Cooper will finally run for Governor in 2020, after McCrory's finished.  Isn't he from Rocky Mount or somewhere east of I-95?  He does want to move up, he's just afraid of running a race in which he's not the clear favorite.

The fact that Perdue won the new third by near double digits makes me think that Democrats could very easily compete for that seat when it comes open in a non-1994/2010 style year.  Its essentially the same district that Marty Lancaster held in the 1980's.  Probably a bit bluer actually. 

I think her big victory in Eastern NC was mostly regional, not party.  She even outperformed Roy Cooper in some counties there.  Counties like Carteret, Onslow, and even Craven Counties are hostile territory for Democrats even on the local level now.  And in the northeast, Currituck is very hostile territory, which is amazing since it was one of the most Democratic counties in the state just thirty years ago.

Still, it's possible that the 3rd could be competitive with a strong campaign from a conservative Democrat.  One possibility is Rep. Paul Tine (D-Outer Banks), I think he may be the only conservative Democrat left in the state legislature from the 3rd CD.

[Miles]

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

I'm thinking Roy Cooper will finally run for Governor in 2020, after McCrory's finished.  Isn't he from Rocky Mount or somewhere east of I-95?  He does want to move up, he's just afraid of running a race in which he's not the clear favorite.

Ah, good point.

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This. Its hard to believe that Onslow County was almost a perfect bellwether for the state in that race. No Democrat other than Perdue would have carried it.

I think Democrats could be competitive in CD3 only in a wave year. In their respective races, Goodwin, Dalton and Atkinson all came within a point or so of winning it in 2008 and Wood actually carried it.

The erosion of Democratic support along the east coast has been very severe. This is what the State Senate looked like just back in 2004.

[Mr.Phips]

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

I'm thinking Roy Cooper will finally run for Governor in 2020, after McCrory's finished.  Isn't he from Rocky Mount or somewhere east of I-95?  He does want to move up, he's just afraid of running a race in which he's not the clear favorite.

Ah, good point.

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This. Its hard to believe that Onslow County was almost a perfect bellwether for the state in that race. No Democrat other than Perdue would have carried it.

I think Democrats could be competitive in CD3 only in a wave year. In their respective races, Goodwin, Dalton and Atkinson all came within a point or so of winning it in 2008 and Wood actually carried it.

The erosion of Democratic support along the east coast has been very severe. This is what the State Senate looked like just back in 2004.

To be fair, isnt that map from before the Dem maps were struck down?

[JacobNC]

I think Democrats could be competitive in CD3 only in a wave year. In their respective races, Goodwin, Dalton and Atkinson all came within a point or so of winning it in 2008 and Wood actually carried it.

The erosion of Democratic support along the east coast has been very severe. This is what the State Senate looked like just back in 2004.

Speaking of which:  It would be cool if you could do a state map (like the Dalton-McCrory CD one) of some other 2012 downballot races.  I'm pretty sure Beth Wood won the 13th district and maybe the 2nd... and it would be interesting to see if any of them came close to winning the 3rd district.

[Miles]

To be fair, isnt that map from before the Dem maps were struck down?

Yes, but I don't think the redraw radically affected any eastern coast districts in terms of partisanship.

I which:  It would be cool if you could do a state map (like the Dalton-McCrory CD one) of some other 2012 downballot races.  I'm pretty sure Beth Wood won the 13th district and maybe the 2nd... and it would be interesting to see if any of them came close to winning the 3rd district.

Yeah; I was thinking of at least doing LG, because it was almost exactly 50/50, but I can do a few others.

Wood lost CD12 55/45 in 2008 and she performed worse in 2012. The closest a non-Cooper Democrat came to winning there was Atkinson, who lost 51/49.

[Miles]

Lt. Gov-by-CD

I was hoping that Coleman would crack 45% in CDs 3 and 8, but my humble hopes were shattered.





It would probably worth going back and calculating how the old CDs would have voted.

[Miles]

A few more thoughts on the LG race:

Coleman vs Obama by county:



*The Presidential numbers are based on the two-party vote, as their were no third parties running in the LG race; this made for more of an apples-to-apples comparison.

- This is for the most part what I expected. Coleman outperformed the most in the northeast coast and in the southeast. Note Senate District 13 (Robeson and Columbus Counties); Coleman did about 17-18 points better here.

- There almost looks like the Amendment 1 map, as there is an obvious urban rural divide. Despite losing by a greater margin, Obama ran outran Coleman in 4 of the state's 5 largest counties (Cumberland was the largest county were Coleman performed better).

- Obama's overperformance in the urban counties was very slight, less than 3 points for each, but if Coleman had matched him in each, she would have won.

- Which brings me to my next thought: Coleman ran 1.1% behind Obama in her home county, Wake. If she matched him in Wake, I'm pretty sure that that alone would have pushed her over the top.

-Rutherford County looks like something an outlier. It was Dalton's home county, but he still lost it by 12; maybe Dalton actually helped Coleman there.

Coleman vs Obama by CD:

[Miles]

How the old districts would have voted:



The most pleasant surprise was that Coleman would have actually carried CD7.

[Mr.Phips]

How the old districts would have voted:



The most pleasant surprise was that Coleman would have actually carried CD7.

Another reason why I am so mad at Democrats in 2010 for not preparing early on for what was clearly going to happen that year. 

[Miles]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How the old districts would have voted:



The most pleasant surprise was that Coleman would have actually carried CD7.

Another reason why I am so mad at Democrats in 2010 for not preparing early on for what was clearly going to happen that year. 

I'm still mystified by how the North Carolina Republicans even managed to pull that off mathematically.

[Miles]

I'm still mystified by how the North Carolina Republicans even managed to pull that off mathematically.

'Ya have to give credit where credit is due. They did a great job.

Its a masterwork of packing. There was a lot of GOP strength locked up in CDs 6, 9 and 10 that was dispersed very well during redistricting.

It helped Republicans that CD1 lost population; that way, they could cram Durham into it, making it even more of a sink.

For the new CD4, it was just a matter of grouping together the most Democratic voters from the old CDs 2, 4 plus some form 8 and 13.

CD12 was also packed more tightly, going from 71% Obama to 78%. It changed in three major ways: 1) Less rural voters; this is why new CD12 is thinner than the old one. 2) In the south, it took additional black voters from CD8's hand into Mecklenburg county. This of course, also helped to push Obama's % down in CD8. 3) Up in Greensboro, it took in the little hand of precincts from the old 13th; these were obviously heavily Democratic.

This is the absolute worst result, IMO:



Thats Hagan/Dole. If you were just looking at the map, you'd never guess that the Republican lost by 9 points.

Dole got 26% in CDs 1 and 4 and she didn't crack 20% in CD12 but won all the others 50/46-ish.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm still mystified by how the North Carolina Republicans even managed to pull that off mathematically.

'Ya have to give credit where credit is due. They did a great job.

Its a masterwork of packing. There was a lot of GOP strength locked up in CDs 6, 9 and 10 that was dispersed very well during redistricting.

It helped Republicans that CD1 lost population; that way, they could cram Durham into it, making it even more of a sink.

For the new CD4, it was just a matter of grouping together the most Democratic voters from the old CDs 2, 4 plus some form 8 and 13.

CD12 was also packed more tightly, going from 71% Obama to 78%. It changed in three major ways: 1) Less rural voters; this is why new CD12 is thinner than the old one. 2) In the south, it took additional black voters from CD8's hand into Mecklenburg county. This of course, also helped to push Obama's % down in CD8. 3) Up in Greensboro, it took in the little hand of precincts from the old 13th; these were obviously heavily Democratic.

This is the absolute worst result, IMO:



Thats Hagan/Dole. If you were just looking at the map, you'd never guess that the Republican lost by 9 points.

Dole got 26% in CDs 1 and 4 and she didn't crack 20% in CD12 but won all the others 50/46-ish.

It really is a disgusting map.  Not only is it really ugly, but it goes against century plus precedents everywhere.  For example, the fourth was always a strictly Research Triangle district, not something that looks like an Octopus that goes all over the Eastern half of the state.  The seventh always had the Lumbees in it.  The 11th always had Asheville and all of Buncombe county. 

[Niemeyerite]

It's disgusting.

[minionofmidas]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

[Niemeyerite]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

I'm not denying it.

[minionofmidas]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

I'm not denying it.

It just needs saying from time to time.

[Mr.Phips]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

Nowhere near as bad as this one.  The only really sick thing they did was add that little hub of Charlotte to NC-08. 

[Miles]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

Nowhere near as bad as this one.  The only really sick thing they did was add that little hub of Charlotte to NC-08.  

The touch-point between CDs 6 and 13 was pretty devious as well.

[Mr.Phips]

It's disgusting.

So was the previous one.

Nowhere near as bad as this one.  The only really sick thing they did was add that little hub of Charlotte to NC-08.  

The touch-point between CDs 6 and 13 was pretty devious as well.

I dont disagree.  Im assuming a fair map would have created a more evenly balanced NC-13 in 2001, probably by making Wake county its own district.  However, by 2008 it would have had a distinct Dem lean. 

[JacobNC]

^Wow, that's a good point you bring up.  Wake County would have almost perfectly fit its own district in 2000, when the target population was 619,000.  However, by the end of the decade it would have been one of the largest districts in the country and Brad Miller might have gotten thrown out in 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

^Wow, that's a good point you bring up.  Wake County would have almost perfectly fit its own district in 2000, when the target population was 619,000.  However, by the end of the decade it would have been one of the largest districts in the country and Brad Miller might have gotten thrown out in 2010.

Miller would have had a single digit race in 2010, but he almost certainly wouldnt have lost.  Even Elaine Marshall came within a point of carrying that district/Wake county in 2010. 

[Miles]

Hmm, yeah. Using 2000 numbers, Wake County would have been just 8700 people over the population of a Congressional district; only a precinct or two would need to be removed. The downside for Dems would be that Etheridge would lose his (heavily D) precincts there.

I might do a 2000 Democratic gerrymander with such a Wake district and see how it comes out.

[Mr.Phips]

Hmm, yeah. Using 2000 numbers, Wake County would have been just 8700 people over the population of a Congressional district; only a precinct or two would need to be removed. The downside for Dems would be that Etheridge would lose his (heavily D) precincts there.

I might do a 2000 Democratic gerrymander with such a Wake district and see how it comes out.

Yeah, Etheridge's seat would probably revert back to the way it was from 1992-1996, which was pretty Republicans and getting more so with the growth of Johnston county.  Also, the 4th would have dropped the Republican leaning parts of the county and raised the Demo percentage further there. 

[Miles]