Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

I used that map for a Wikipedia entry, as most everyone else recognizes the normal colors.

[Gass3268]

I used that map for a Wikipedia entry, as most everyone else recognizes the normal colors.

I had a professor last semester that went off for like 5 minutes on how the networks were so stupid to reverse the colors from the world standard. Too bad it will never change back to the way it should. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Could you make a North Carolina 2012 congressional results county map without any county splits.  In other words, Mecklenburg County is split so you'd combine the vote totals of Democratic congressional candidates in Mecklenburg parts of their districts to get the Democratic congressional vote in the county.  Or to be even more clear, how would a county map of North Carolina's congressional vote look if it were in the format of a statewide race map?  Does that make sense?  If you could make such a map, I'd appreciate it

[Miles]

Could you make a North Carolina 2012 congressional results county map without any county splits.  In other words, Mecklenburg County is split so you'd combine the vote totals of Democratic congressional candidates in Mecklenburg parts of their districts to get the Democratic congressional vote in the county.  Or to be even more clear, how would a county map of North Carolina's congressional vote look if it were in the format of a statewide race map?  Does that make sense?  If you could make such a map, I'd appreciate it

[Miles]

Seriously though, I do plan on making a map of the Congressional vote, but I don't think I'm exactly clear on what you're asking, X.

[minionofmidas]

Seriously though, I do plan on making a map of the Congressional vote, but I don't think I'm exactly clear on what you're asking, X.

Just a county map of the congressional vote, split counties not split.

[Miles]

Ah, ok. So something like this but for only NC.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, ok. So something like this but for only NC.

Although I would prefer a national map!

[Miles]

Ah, ok. So something like this but for only NC.

Although I would prefer a national map!

Maybe, thought lets start smaller

[Miles]

The Congressional vote by county:



Kinda odd to see Forsyth a darker shade of red than Guilford; probably has to do with Coble's likability and Foxx's polarization.

DATA

These were the closest counties:



Here's a neat little GIF I put together. It compares the maps for President, Congress and the average of the non-Presidential statewide races (which I hammered out right after the election.).

[Miles]

I'm looking for some input from my great readers!

As ya'll have noticed, I'm working on LA Pres-by-CD. After that, I'm trying to decide which LA map to do next. Its going to be either Blanco/Jindal or Obama/Hillary.

Which would ya'll rather me do first?

[Obamanation]

I'm looking for some input from my great readers!

As ya'll have noticed, I'm working on LA Pres-by-CD. After that, I'm trying to decide which LA map to do next. Its going to be either Blanco/Jindal or Obama/Hillary.

Which would ya'll rather me do first?

Blanco/Jindal

[Gass3268]

Obama/Hillary

[JacobNC]

Blanco/Jindal... also Landrieu/Kennedy

[Miles]

Blanco/Jindal... also Landrieu/Kennedy

Landrieu/Kennedy is the first series of maps in this thread

[Miles]

[Miles]

Its about 68/31 Romney between these three:

[Napoleon]

Obama/Hillary..

[Miles]

I hope to have NC Gov-by-CD out soon.

I hate to keep knockin' poor Dalton, but there really aren't any good ways to spin the results.

[Miles]

Outside of the three safe districts, Dalton didn't crack 40% in any others.

'What 2008 looked like:





Here's McCrory vs. Romney:



This is pretty much what you'd expect.

McCrory overperformed the most in CD9, where he came close to tripling Romney's margin. My precinct, which is in south Charlotte, is a good example of this: 60/38 Romney and 77/21 McCrory.

Mecklenburg County makes up 52% of CD12, and McCrory did 13 points better there than Romney.

McCrory's three worst district compared to Romney were 1, 3 and 7. I guess my best explanation for this is that there was a contingent of eastern voters who didn't want a Governor from Charlotte.  

[Miles]

Dardenne is trying to walk back speculation that he's taking steps towards runnnig.

[JacobNC]

Wow.  I didn't realize Perdue won the 7th district.  I think 2012 really was the end of east vs. west politics in North Carolina... forever.  Democrats will have to win by uniting the two.  East vs. west politics in NC dates back to the Colonial era.

And... yes, now I see you did Landrieu vs. Kennedy at the beginning of the thread.  Thank you.

[Miles]

Perdue won CD7 by 259 votes; if the Republicans just split or swapped around a few precincts, they could  have easily turned it into a McCrory district. Perdue's win there gave me hope for McIntyre. McIntyre, though, put together a slightly different coalition; he did better than Perdue around Wilmington but fared a tad worse in the northern counties.

Yeah, the east vs. west divide is gradually becoming less the norm with each cycle. NC, like most everywhere else, is becoming more uban vs. rural.

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

[Mr.Phips]

Perdue won CD7 by 259 votes; if the Republicans just split or swapped around a few precincts, they could  have easily turned it into a McCrory district. Perdue's win there gave me hope for McIntyre. McIntyre, though, put together a slightly different coalition; he did better than Perdue around Wilmington but fared a tad worse in the northern counties.

Yeah, the east vs. west divide is gradually becoming less the norm with each cycle. NC, like most everywhere else, is becoming more uban vs. rural.

I heard some NC political sci professor a while back say that Perdue would likely be the last Governor from east of I-95 for the foreseeable future. I think I agree; the center of state politics has shifted westward.

The fact that Perdue won the new third by near double digits makes me think that Democrats could very easily compete for that seat when it comes open in a non-1994/2010 style year.  Its essentially the same district that Marty Lancaster held in the 1980's.  Probably a bit bluer actually. 

[Miles]

I know, 'shame on me. I took the lazy way out and broke down Orleans Parish by ward instead of voting district. At this point, I just want to get through all the districts so we can get to the state map. I can always go back and redo Orleans Parish by voting district.