GriffGraph: Balance of Power (6/10/12) + Updated PP

[Adam Griffin]

Atlasia Balance of Power:

Presidential Polling History and PP:

In a follow-up to the polling and projections released five days ago, a revision has been released taking into account the latest poll, which has been running for 72+ hours at this point. Over the past few days, we have seen Clarence's support wane in conjunction with a boom of polling support for Oakvale.

8-Poll Average:

Napoleon - 30.1%
Clarence - 26.3%
Oakvale - 17.4%
Tweed - 15.2%

GriffGraph Possibility Points™:

Napoleon - 241
Clarence - 210
Oakvale - 139
Tweed - 122

...

Napoleon - 241
Clarence - 210
Oakvale - 139
Tweed - 122

GriffIntrade Rankings:

Napoleon - 53.4%
Clarence - 46.6%

8-Poll Average (Weighted*)

Napoleon - 33.4%
Clarence - 27.0%
Oakvale - 18.6%
Tweed - 16.6%

GriffGraph Possibility Points™ (Weighted*):

Napoleon - 267
Clarence - 216
Oakvale - 149
Tweed - 133

...

Napoleon - 267
Clarence - 216
Oakvale - 149
Tweed - 133

GriffIntrade Rankings (Weighted*)

Napoleon - 55.3%
Clarence - 44.7%

* = Using formula, the first two polls are weighted at 75% of their actual value. The following two polls are weighted at 100%, while the most recent four polls are weighted at 125% of their value.

[Donerail]

Does the GriffGraph model weigh later polling more heavily than early polling for the possibility points?

Also, what do the boxes represent? (which goes to legislature, which to governor, which to regional senator, etc)?

[Napoleon]

What is each square for? I think the Midwest has no government so you are only missing SenatorSbane Liberal-Pacific and Senator ilikeverin Ind-Midwest.

[Napoleon]

The Northeast Assembly has one Liberal two Labor one Whig and one Independent.

[Adam Griffin]

Does the GriffGraph model weigh later polling more heavily than early polling for the possibility points?

It does not, but I've been considering a formula for taking that into account. It's possible with the recent uptick that Oakvale could be doing better than Clarence sustainably at this point.

What is each square for? I think the Midwest has no government so you are only missing SenatorSbane Liberal-Pacific and Senator ilikeverin Ind-Midwest.

Smallest boxes are for regional legislators an assembly members, larger box is for regional executive and the largest two boxes are for Senators.

The Northeast Assembly has one Liberal two Labor one Whig and one Independent.

I'll get these updated once I'm back in front of my computer. Thanks for the info on all of these.

[Oakvale]

This is really great, I enjoy reading these a lot.

[Donerail]

What is each square for? I think the Midwest has no government so you are only missing SenatorSbane Liberal-Pacific and Senator ilikeverin Ind-Midwest.

Smallest boxes are for regional legislators an assembly members, larger box is for regional executive and the largest two boxes are for Senators.

Mkay, so you won't need the small boxes for Pacific/Midwest (iirc they're universal), and you'd need 3 large boxes for the Northeast (represented in the Senate by regional Senator Scott and at-large Senators Wormyguy and Andrew) and 1 for the Midwest (only represented by regional Senator Ilikeverin).

All IDS statistics are correct. Midwest needs Ilikeverin (who's actually LOONY-MW) and... I guess Hawkeye's still in charge since no one stepped up to be Prime Verin? He's Labor-MW. Mideast is all correct. Pacific needs Sbane (Lib) and Seatown (Lab). Governor's for Pacific is correct.

[Adam Griffin]

What is each square for? I think the Midwest has no government so you are only missing SenatorSbane Liberal-Pacific and Senator ilikeverin Ind-Midwest.

Smallest boxes are for regional legislators an assembly members, larger box is for regional executive and the largest two boxes are for Senators.

Mkay, so you won't need the small boxes for Pacific/Midwest (iirc they're universal), and you'd need 3 large boxes for the Northeast (represented in the Senate by regional Senator Scott and at-large Senators Wormyguy and Andrew) and 1 for the Midwest (only represented by regional Senator Ilikeverin).

So am I understanding correctly that there are no allocated regional legislative seats in the Midwest and Pacific? Also for the Midwest, two senators are allocated but only one is filled currently, correct?

And for the Northeast, Scott is the senator to the Northeast Assembly, while Andrew and Wormyguy, right?

I want to include all elected positions that are allocated by the regional governments, showing all the vacancies in addition to filled seats. What about Lieutenant Governors and other elected positions? I believe the Pacific has a Lt Gov position. And just who the hell is the Pacific Governor now?

[Napoleon]

Governor Townsend was recently elected by the Pacific Region. These are great btw. Can't wait to see that red box down south.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Wormyguy is now in the Mideast.

These are some very useful charts... maybe something that we can add to the wiki?

[Donerail]

What is each square for? I think the Midwest has no government so you are only missing SenatorSbane Liberal-Pacific and Senator ilikeverin Ind-Midwest.

Smallest boxes are for regional legislators an assembly members, larger box is for regional executive and the largest two boxes are for Senators.

Mkay, so you won't need the small boxes for Pacific/Midwest (iirc they're universal), and you'd need 3 large boxes for the Northeast (represented in the Senate by regional Senator Scott and at-large Senators Wormyguy and Andrew) and 1 for the Midwest (only represented by regional Senator Ilikeverin).

So am I understanding correctly that there are no allocated regional legislative seats in the Midwest and Pacific? Also for the Midwest, two senators are allocated but only one is filled currently, correct?

And for the Northeast, Scott is the senator to the Northeast Assembly, while Andrew and Wormyguy, right?

I want to include all elected positions that are allocated by the regional governments, showing all the vacancies in addition to filled seats. What about Lieutenant Governors and other elected positions? I believe the Pacific has a Lt Gov position. And just who the hell is the Pacific Governor now?

Yes; the Midwest and Pacific have a universal legislature.

Atlasia has a Senatorial system where 5 Senators are elected in regional elections (each region is allocated 1 Senator), while 5 others are elected in at-large elections (regions do not matter in this election (at least, not allocation-wise)). For the Northeast, Scott is the regional Senator, while Andrew is the at-large one (Wormy has actually moved to the Mideast, so the Mideast should have three large boxes). I wouldn't include at-large Senate seats if I were you, as they are elected by the nation as a whole.

As for other elected positions, the Pacific has a Lieutenant Governor (Torie, an independent), and the Midwest does; the Mideast and IDS do not.

Also, I made an error. The current Midwest Prime Verin (Governor) is Marokai Blue (Labor), and the Deputy Verin (Lt. Gov.) is Rooney (Liberal). This is based off of the one vote for those offices in the Universal Alþing.

[Adam Griffin]

Governor Townsend was recently elected by the Pacific Region. These are great btw. Can't wait to see that red box down south.

I think it'd go great with the color scheme.

Wormyguy is now in the Mideast.

These are some very useful charts... maybe something that we can add to the wiki?

I'm A-OK with that.

Yes; the Midwest and Pacific have a universal legislature.

Atlasia has a Senatorial system where 5 Senators are elected in regional elections (each region is allocated 1 Senator), while 5 others are elected in at-large elections (regions do not matter in this election (at least, not allocation-wise)). For the Northeast, Scott is the regional Senator, while Andrew is the at-large one (Wormy has actually moved to the Mideast, so the Mideast should have three large boxes). I wouldn't include at-large Senate seats if I were you, as they are elected by the nation as a whole.

As for other elected positions, the Pacific has a Lieutenant Governor (Torie, an independent), and the Midwest does; the Mideast and IDS do not.

Also, I made an error. The current Midwest Prime Verin (Governor) is Marokai Blue (Labor), and the Deputy Verin (Lt. Gov.) is Rooney (Liberal). This is based off of the one vote for those offices in the Universal Alþing.

Could you tell me which five Senators are regionally elected or holding those offices?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Regional Senators:
Northeast: Scott (LIB-CT)
Mideast: Benconstine (Ind.-VA)
IDS: North Carolina Yankee (IB-NC)
Midwest: ilikeverin (LOONY-MN)
Pacific: sbane (LIB-CA)

At-large Senators:
AndrewTX (Ind.-PA)
wormyguy (Other-MO)
Clarence (WHIG-FL)
TJ in Cleve (WHIG-OH)
Seatown (LAB-WA)

[Donerail]

COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF ALL OFFICIALS:

Imperial Dominion Of The South

• Emperor (Governor): PiT (The Physicist) (IB)
• Regional Senator: North Carolina Yankee (IB) (Dean of the Senate) (President Pro Tempore of the Senate)
• Judicial Overlord: Pingvin99
• Imperial Speaker: Yelnoc (IB)
• Legislator: AHDuke99 (Ind)
• Legislator: Kalwejt (Lib)
• Legislator: Mechaman (IB)
• Legislator: HagridOfTheDeep (Whig)

Mideast Region

• Governor: ZuWo
• Regional Senator: Benconstine (Ben) (Ind)
• Superior Court Judge: Franzi (Ind)
• Speaker of the Assembly: Inks.LWC (Whig)
• Assemblyman: A-Bob (Whig)
• Assemblyman: Happy Warrior (Ind)

Midwest Region

• Prime Verin: Vacant
• Deputy Verin: Vacant
• Regional Senator: Ilikeverin (LOONY)

*Note: Every Midwest citizen is a member of the Universal Alþing.

Pacific Region

• Governor: NVTownsend (Lib)
• Lieutenant Governor: Torie (Ind)
• Regional Senator: Sbane (Lib)
• Justice: Vacant

*Note: Every Pacific citizen is a member of the Pacific Legislature

FEDERAL

• President: Polnut (Lib)
• Vice President: Tmthforu94 (Ind)
• Secretary of Federal Elections: Homelycooking (Ind)
• Deputy Secretary of Federal Elections: Vacant
• Registrar General of the Census Bureau: Homelycooking (Ind)
• Secretary of External Affairs: SJoyceFla (IB)
• GTO Ambassador: Vacant
• Secretary of Internal Affairs: Vacant
• Attorney General: Fuzzybigfoot (Labor)
• Game Moderator: Shua (PLP)
• Moderator General: Gustaf (Ind)
• Chief of Staff: Vacant
• At-Large Senator: Wormyguy (Rick Perry Party)
• At-Large Senator: Seatown (Labor)
• At-Large Senator: Scott (Lib)
• At-Large Senator: Clarence (Whig)
• At-Large Senator: AndrewPA (Ind)
• Chief Justice: Vacant
• Associate Justice: Vacant
• Associate Justice: Vacant

*I'm not sure on the status of the Supreme Court[/list]

[Adam Griffin]

I think I got everything updated.

[ilikeverin]

I believe the positions of Prime Verin and Deputy Verin are vacant, as no one has taken the oath of office.  Actually, there's a constitutional crisis in the Midwest right now, because positions are vacant and there's actually a formidable constitutional obstacle right now to changing the laws to make things a bit easier to manage.  I've been meaning to rally the troops for a while but I haven't had the time

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF ALL OFFICIALS:

Imperial Dominion Of The South

• Emperor (Governor): PiT (The Physicist) (IB)
• Regional Senator: North Carolina Yankee (IB) (Dean of the Senate) (President Pro Tempore of the Senate)
• Judicial Overlord: Pingvin99
• Imperial Speaker: Yelnoc (IB)
• Legislator: AHDuke99 (Ind)
• Legislator: Kalwejt (Lib)
• Legislator: Mechaman (IB)
• Legislator: HagridOfTheDeep (Whig)

Mideast Region

• Governor: ZuWo
• Regional Senator: Benconstine (Ben) (Ind)
• Superior Court Judge: Franzi (Ind)
• Speaker of the Assembly: Inks.LWC (Whig)
• Assemblyman: A-Bob (Whig)
• Assemblyman: Happy Warrior (Ind)

Midwest Region

• Prime Verin: Marokai Blue (Labor)
• Deputy Verin: Rooney (Lib)
• Regional Senator: Ilikeverin (LOONY)

*Note: Every Midwest citizen is a member of the Universal Alþing.

Pacific Region

• Governor: NVTownsend (
• Lieutenant Governor: Torie (Ind)
• Regional Senator: Sbane (Lib)
• Justice: Vacant

*Note: Every Pacific citizen is a member of the Pacific Legislature

FEDERAL

• President: Polnut (Lib)
• Vice President: Tmthforu94 (Ind)
• Secretary of Federal Elections: Homelycooking (Ind)
• Registrar General of the Census Bureau: Homelycooking (Ind)
• Secretary of External Affairs: SJoyceFla (IB)
• Secretary of Internal Affairs: Vacant
• Attorney General: Fuzzybigfoot (Labor)
• Game Moderator: Shua (PLP)
• Moderator General: Gustaf (Ind)
• At-Large Senator: Wormyguy (Rick Perry Party)
• At-Large Senator: Seatown (Labor)
• At-Large Senator: Scott (Lib)
• At-Large Senator: Clarence (Whig)
• At-Large Senator: AndrewPA (Ind)

[/list]

And Northeast Region

• Governor: Napoleon (LIB)
• Lieutenant Governor: PyroTheFox (LAB)
• Regional Senator: Scott (LIB)
• Assembly Speaker: Averroës Nix (LIB)
• Representative: PyroTheFox (LAB)
• Representative: Alfred F. Jones (LAB)
• Representative: Simfan34 (WHIG)
• Representative: Winfield (IND)

[Donerail]

That's why I didn't do the Northeast offices in the list; one of the Northeast people would make one almost immediately.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Sorry if this is threadjacking, but also for reference:

[Adam Griffin]

Sorry if this is threadjacking, but also for reference:

That's cool. What about Yankee? Shouldn't IB be listed or he be colored orange?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Sorry if this is threadjacking, but also for reference:

That's cool. What about Yankee? Shouldn't IB be listed or he be colored orange?

Sorry, it's fixed now.

[ilikeverin]

I honestly wonder what you'd get if you did one of those DW-NOMINATE scores on the members of the Atlasian Congress.

[Donerail]

I honestly wonder what you'd get if you did one of those DW-NOMINATE scores on the members of the Atlasian Congress.

Adam, you have your next project.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Sorry, more threadjacking.

June Senate Race Rankings:

[Donerail]

Change NE to Likely Lib (since there's multiple options in that one) and it's spot-on.