GriffGraph: Balance of Power (6/10/12) + Updated PP

[Oakvale]

It's interesting. If you divide the Senate into loose groupings of "left and "right", you end up with five Senators - Verin, Sbane, Seatown and the more centrist Scott and Ben on the Left, and five Senators - TJ, Clarence, Wormyguy, Yankee and the more centrist Andrew on the Right.

Which means Senate control will likely come down to the Mideast Senate race. Exciting stuff!

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Change NE to Likely Lib (since there's multiple options in that one) and it's spot-on.

I rated it 'safe' based on the most recent poll.

[Donerail]

Change NE to Likely Lib (since there's multiple options in that one) and it's spot-on.

I rated it 'safe' based on the most recent poll.

Yeah, but that poll has your opponent getting 1 vote, which is more than the current opponents of Sbane, Ilikeverin, and NC Yankee are getting

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Change NE to Likely Lib (since there's multiple options in that one) and it's spot-on.

I rated it 'safe' based on the most recent poll.

Yeah, but that poll has your opponent getting 1 vote, which is more than the current opponents of Sbane, Ilikeverin, and NC Yankee are getting

Yes, but the poll still does not show a competitive race.  I'm ranking this by:
0-3 vote lead: Toss-Up
4-6 vote lead: Lean
7+ vote lead: Strong

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Which means Senate control will likely come down to the Mideast Senate race. Exciting stuff!

Oh my.

[Napoleon]

Unfortunately there is no such thing as control of the Senate, a likely factor causing the less than competitive elections for incumbent Senators.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Unfortunately there is no such thing as control of the Senate, a likely factor causing the less than competitive elections for incumbent Senators.

I'd argue that it matters somewhat.  It's not remotely like the US, but having a majority conservative Senate can have an impact, and vice versa.

[ilikeverin]

I'm surprised to hear that I've declared my intention to run for re-election!  News to me

I need to figure out whether I'm doing that or going back to the Midwest to try to fix it.

[Adam Griffin]

Does the GriffGraph model weigh later polling more heavily than early polling for the possibility points?

Weighted poll averages, PPs and GriffIntrade Rankings are now available (in the OP).

[Donerail]

I'm surprised to hear that I've declared my intention to run for re-election!  News to me

I need to figure out whether I'm doing that or going back to the Midwest to try to fix it.

Not like there's anybody in the Midwest who'll run...

[ilikeverin]

I'm surprised to hear that I've declared my intention to run for re-election!  News to me

I need to figure out whether I'm doing that or going back to the Midwest to try to fix it.

Not like there's anybody in the Midwest who'll run...

As the one Midwestern elected official, I have to choose between Senator or Prime Verin!

[Donerail]

I'm surprised to hear that I've declared my intention to run for re-election!  News to me

I need to figure out whether I'm doing that or going back to the Midwest to try to fix it.

Not like there's anybody in the Midwest who'll run...

As the one Midwestern elected official, I have to choose between Senator or Prime Verin!

There's Hawkeye and Fritz, and Marokai, and Rooney, and Trondheim, and dead0, and Reginald, and BRTD, and... guess you should start weighing the pros and cons of those offices.

[Adam Griffin]

Presidential Polling History and PP:

This will be the final GriffGraph analysis prior to the election. Oakvale has clearly managed to tie up the vast majority of independents and undecideds, and appears to be dipping into Tweed's electorate as well. This final analysis has Oakvale and Clarence virtually deadlocked for second place.

5-Poll Average:

Napoleon - 33.8% (+3.7)
Clarence - 24.8% (-1.5)
Oakvale - 24.0% (+6.6)
Tweed - 13.6% (-1.6)

GriffGraph Possibility Points™ (Weighted*)

Napoleon - 171
Oakvale - 125
Clarence - 123
Tweed - 66

...

Napoleon - 171
Oakvale - 125
Clarence - 123
Tweed - 66

GriffIntrade Rankings:

Napoleon - 58.0%
Oakvale - 22.3%
Clarence - 19.7%


* = Using formula, the first of five polls is weighted at 75% of its actual value. The following three polls are weighted at 100%, while the most recent poll is weighted at 125% of its value.

[© tweed]

buy me, I promise.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Oakmentum!

[Oakvale]

I love these, and it has nothing to do with my apparent momentum.

Congratulations on your election, by the way!

[Adam Griffin]

buy me, I promise.

I would. We need to setup an exchange.

I love these, and it has nothing to do with my apparent momentum.

Congratulations on your election, by the way!

Glad to be of service. Thanks!

[Napoleon]

Interesting...