Italy 2013: The official thread

[Niemeyerite]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

Better:

Centrist clowns/clowny clowns/conservative clowns/The Clown/deluded clowns

[minionofmidas]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Or Left/Right/Monti/Clowns/Far Left

Better:

Centrist clowns/clowny clowns/conservative clowns/The Clown/deluded clowns

centre / right clowns / right / left clowns / left.

[SPQR]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

One must always remember that the lead in 2006 was "only" 4-5%, and that polls were prohibited in the last week of campaigning,which was when Berlusconi ended the debate with Prodi announcing that he would have cancelled ICI (tax on houses).

[Andrea]

Nobody uses these abbreviations in Italy to be honest...it would be better just to write the name of the candidate PM for each coalition.

Or Left/Right/Monti.

Anyway, the most recent polls posted in the official polling archive (realized somewhere between the 5th and 9th) give:

- Left 39.8 - 38 - 38.5 - 40.3 - 34.9
- Right 23.1 - 27 - 30.7 - 24.4 - 24.9
- Monti 17.6 - 16 - 10.5 - 15.1 - 13.8

The left's lead ranges from 16.7 to 7.8, and averages 12.3. The Euromedia poll seems to be an outlier.

Apparently a 9.5% lead in tonight's poll for La7.

Euromedia is Berlusconi's pollster. In 2006 they were the only ones not predicting a comfortable win for Prodi.

One must always remember that the lead in 2006 was "only" 4-5%, and that polls were prohibited in the last week of campaigning,which was when Berlusconi ended the debate with Prodi announcing that he would have cancelled ICI (tax on houses).

Yes, but after 2006, I want to be psychologically ready in case of another tie :-)

 

[Keystone Phil]

Over the next couple of weeks, IBC will surely bleed four to five points to Berlusconi and Co. That puts it at roughly 34% to 30%. We have a ball game then. 

At this point, I seriously think M5S will end up in the single digits.

[Keystone Phil]

I swear I didn't type my above post after seeing this:


Italia. Bene Comune - 39%

PD 32.8%
Sinistra, Ecologia e Libertà 4.5%
Altri di centrosinistra 1.0%

Center-right - 35%

PdL 23.1%
Lega Nord 5.5%
Centrodestra Nazionale-Fratelli d'Italia 2.3%
La Destra 1.6%
Grande Sud+MPA+Altri di centrodestra 1.7%

Con Monti per l'Italia - 11%

UDC-Unione di Centro 4,0%
Futuro e Libertà 1.0%
Scelta civica-Con Monti per l'Italia 6.0%

M5S - 10.5%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.0%
Undecided - 35.0%


Have to love Il Giornale's commentary:

"L'ultimo sondaggio choc:
Berlusconi a 4 punti dal Pd

Ancora una volta il leader del centrodestra rischia di ribaltare i pronostici con una rimonta che molti consideravano impossibile."


"The latest poll shock:
Berlusconi to 4 points from Pd


Once again, the leader of the center-right is likely to overturn the odds with a comeback that many considered impossible."


Another poll has the Center-Right at 27%, Italia - Bene Comune at 37%, Monti's bunch at 15%, M5S at 12% and Rivoluzione Civile at 5%.

[RogueBeaver]

God forbid.

[Keystone Phil]

God forbid.

It's Berlusconi's firm but the other one (commissioned by La7, from what I can tell) showing it as a ten point race is a sign that things should be getting very tight...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Oh for Christ's sake.

[RogueBeaver]

At least he's no longer the PM candidate. Unless there's some sort of legal loophole where you can do a last-minute, Lautenberg-style switcharoo.

[minionofmidas]

At least he's no longer the PM candidate. Unless there's some sort of legal loophole where you can do a last-minute, Lautenberg-style switcharoo.

I'm reasonably certain there is nothing (in the law) to prevent Berlusconi heading the government after the elections if there's a parliamentary majority for that.

[RogueBeaver]

But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.

[minionofmidas]

But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.

You trust Maroni's word? I don't.

[RogueBeaver]

If he did change his mind, how soon would we know? At any rate SB would be the puppetmaster if anyone other than himself was chosen as the PM candidate in a PDL-win scenario, so dunno what sort of point Maroni is making.

[Keystone Phil]

But there isn't, since Maroni said the coalition deal is off if Berlusconi tries that.

Yeah except Silvio would go back on his word after the election, after getting the win. Of course, I guess they could refuse to participate in the government.

Maybe one of our experts could answer: what happens if a coalition wins (example: the Center-right) and they piss off one of their major coalition partners (Lega Nord) before the government is formed? Of course, we're assuming the coalition cannot find another partner. Another election is held? What happens with the bonus seats for the newly elected Parliament? Would they be assigned to the next biggest coalition (assuming they had a plurality of the vote. I guess that would allow them to form the new government then)?

[minionofmidas]

Parliament as elected would serve for five years or until it is dissolved. It's still a niormal parliamentary system of government, after all, despite that quasi-presidential seat allocation mechanism.

[Niemeyerite]

OMG, can Silvio actually win this? No, please!

[Keystone Phil]

Parliament as elected would serve for five years or until it is dissolved. It's still a niormal parliamentary system of government, after all, despite that quasi-presidential seat allocation mechanism.

Yeah but if Lega (in this example) went in it alone after the election was held and denied a Center-right coalition of a plurality, would the plurality bonus just be assigned for the next largest coalition or would the burden still be on Berlusconi to form a government (and if he couldn't, Parliament would be dissolved)? What makes it more complicated on the surface is that this scenario occurs between the election and the beginning of a government. It's not like a party abandoning a coalition during the term.

[Andrea]

IPR new polls for La7's show Piazza Pulita (aired last night)

Tecné for SKY News


Bersani 37.5
Berlusconi 26.3
Monti 14.8
Grillo 14.2
Ingroia 4.1

ISPO for Porta a Porta

Bersani 36.3
Berlusconi 29.2
Monti 15.5
Grillo 12.6
Ingroia 4.4

IPR for TG3

Bersani 36.5
Berlusconi 28.5
Monti 15
Grillo 12
Ingroia 4

IPR polls for Piazza Pulita (la7 political show)

Lombardy: Bersani 35.5 Berlusconi 35
Veneto: Berlusconi 41 Bersani 33
Campania: Bersani 35 Berlusconi 32
Sicily: Bersani 34 Berlusconi 33.5

[minionofmidas]

Parliament as elected would serve for five years or until it is dissolved. It's still a niormal parliamentary system of government, after all, despite that quasi-presidential seat allocation mechanism.

Yeah but if Lega (in this example) went in it alone after the election was held and denied a Center-right coalition of a plurality, would the plurality bonus just be assigned for the next largest coalition or would the burden still be on Berlusconi to form a government (and if he couldn't, Parliament would be dissolved)? What makes it more complicated on the surface is that this scenario occurs between the election and the beginning of a government. It's not like a party abandoning a coalition during the term.

It does not matter. It's after the seats are distributed. Indeed, if they decided they would not join the PdL-led government after all some days before the elections, they'd still be in that electoral coalition for seat distribution/thresholds terms as the time to withdraw from that would have passed.

[Keystone Phil]

The Center-right needs to give Ingroia (and De Magistris in Campania) a big kiss for the closeness in Sicily and Campania. At this rate, I expect Berlusconi and Co. to win in both.

[Keystone Phil]

Also, it looks like PdL decided on La Destra's Storace for the Lazio Governorship. Seems to be some controversy between PdL and Fratelli d'Italia on this, with Meloni saying FdI-CN possibly running their own candidate. So much for FdI-CN just being a puppet.

Anyway, Euromedia also conducted a poll in this race with hypothetical match ups. The center-left candidate is cruising, beating Storace by thirteen. Maurizio Gasparri loses by fourteen. Whoever Beatrice Lorenzin is must be terribly unpopular: she's losing 48% to 27%. Looks like an easy pick up for the center-left considering how well known and unpopular the right wingers are.

[Andrea]

Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658

[SPQR]

Storace is going to lose by a lot,way more than thirteen points.

Also,today's poll at Ballarò showed a lead for the center-left of more than 12 points.

Yeah,sure,"the comeback"...

[Keystone Phil]

Re Lazio regional elections
Zingaretti is a good candidate. I guess PdL/Right already wrote it off probably concentrating their efforts on Rome mayorality which is up in spring. I guess few know who Lorenzin is (compared to Gasparri and Storace).

Silvio this morning:

http://video.repubblica.it/dossier/elezioni-politiche-2013/berlusconi-botte-in-testa-al-giornalista-dell-espresso/116242/114658

Who is running against Alemanno? Is he favored or is it a toss up?