Italy 2013: The official thread

[Keystone Phil]

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates

I had to scroll through the list twice to make sure I wasn't missing something. I assume the PD incumbent in the Camera for North/Central America is running again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Crazy election just became even crazier.

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.

This election is only as crazy as 1994 if Grillo wins (because, basically, that's what happened in 1994).

2013 is crazy in a different way than 1994, but not necessarily less (though I admit I was exaggerating a bit).

[SPQR]

The abroad candidates for the Camera (House of Representatives) don't count for anything, since there whoever gets a majority,even of one vote,automatically gets 55% of the deputies.

They DO count instead for the Senate,since there any majority will be semi-razor-thin.

[SPQR]

"Amnistia Giustizia Libertà" is the Radical Party (which in the past also ran under the names "Lista Pannella" and "Lista Bonino" after its two main leaders).

The deciding region in the Senate could become Sicily.
Both big alliances are doing everything to win there and new developments occur every day:
The IBC in Sicily will probably run not only with the PD, SEL and CD ("Democratic Center") lists, but also with a Socialist list and with a "megaphone" list. (The megaphone was the symbol for a list that supported center-left governor candidate Rosario Crocetta in the regional elections.)
The Center-right will run an armada of lists.
Micchiché with his "Grande Sud" (a PdL split-off), who in the regional elections ran separately, will support the center-right.
Most of his counsillors have left his party for "Sicilian Voice" under a guy with the nickname "Mister Preferenze" that seems to own a large vote package. And "Sicilian Voice" could run candidates in the Megaphone list, i.e. support the IBC.
Ex-governor Lombardo with his MPA-PdS, who in 2008 ran with Berlusconi, later was part of the center pole and who in the regional elections ran together with Micciché, could end up supporting CD, i.e. the IBC. At least this is what Loiero wants. (Loiero is some Calabrian ex-governor, who has been in many parties and now in the MPA-PdS.)

Urrrgh! Doesn't the center-left remember their experience with Mastella?
Micciché, Lombardo, Mister Preferenze etc. are just...

There is no way Lombardo will run with the center-left (that is,IBC).

Always remember that Loiero left PD because he had been a total failure as a governor.

[Andrea]

IPSOS poll presented last night during Ballarò

House

Bersani coalition 39.8%
Berlusconi coalition 23.1%
Monti coalition 17.6
Grillo 12.5%
Ingroia 5.5%

Senate

Bersani coalition 40.3
Berlusconi 23.8
Monti 16.6
Grillo 12.2
Ingroia 5.1

The Civic Revolution's score ties with their regional polls figures published by Sole 24 Ore 2 days ago.

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates

I had to scroll through the list twice to make sure I wasn't missing something. I assume the PD incumbent in the Camera for North/Central America is running again.

If you are interested, this are Grillo's candidates for North/Central America

House: Sandro Sessarego (researcger at University of Wisconsin), Eugenio Daviso (researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Michele Taverna (President and Chief Executive Officer, MonteCristo International LLC); Roberto Berritta (Director of Engineering for Brooks Stevens, Inc).

Senate:  Simone Lolli (researcher at NASA) Arturo Busca (director at DHL Express)

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know that I'm really concerned with M5S' showing here.   If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party. Glad to see Grillo is down to 12% back in Italy though. As expected.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know that I'm really concerned with M5S' showing here.   If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.

Last I checked Berlusconi did win some abroad seats.

As long as the PD coalition is expected to win handily, 4% should not be that much of a hurdle for CR.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know that I'm really concerned with M5S' showing here.   If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.

Last I checked Berlusconi did win some abroad seats.

My real concern is for one Camera seat in North/Central America. Because there are two seats, it should end up 1-1.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lewis, are you really supporting Rivoluzione Civile? They are basically a staler version of SEL, and contrary to SEL they would be a wasted vote for the left coalition (ergo, a vote for Berlusconi).

[minionofmidas]

PD is (probably) going to win anyways, and I'm not one to easily forgive the extortion attempt of 2008. Big artificial centre-"left" parties can go hang unless they're really, really needed to prevent the so much worse.
Which obviously means I also doubt SEL's judgment and/or integrity.


On a somewhat related question; are there any stated positions on what everyone wants to do with the election law?

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD is (probably) going to win anyways, and I'm not one to easily forgive the extortion attempt of 2008. Big artificial centre-"left" parties can go hang unless they're really, really needed to prevent the so much worse.
Which obviously means I also doubt SEL's judgment and/or integrity.

1. This is Italy, so never EVER say "X is going to win anyways".
2. I of course fully share your contempt for PD, but they are still worth voting for considering the alternatives.
3. SEL's decision makes perfect sense, both in terms of electoral strategy (thresholds and all), and in terms of actual political influence (because being inside a governing coalition allows you to have leverage on policy, something RC won't have in any case).
4. Ingroia is such a boring person. He's basically the hybrid of a less crazy Grillo and a less inspiring/charismatic Vendola. And I can certify, he's really painful to listen to, worse than Bersani and not so much better than Monti.

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PD wants a French system (two-round single member), Renzi a little more emphatically so than Bersani, but both support it unequivocally. The Monti coalition says the current law sucks but hasn't said anything about what they want to do instead. My bet is that they'd love a "German" system (which would make it impossible for a coalition to rule alone). As for PdL, they have been very good at bullsh*tting about this for the past year or so, and what they would do is anyone's guess.

[Keystone Phil]

Thanks for the help especially with the jinxing, Lewis!

[SPQR]

If Italians abroad are serious enough to go out of their way to vote, they probably won't be voting for a joke party.

That's the end of PdL then.

[minionofmidas]

3. SEL's decision makes perfect sense, both in terms of electoral strategy (thresholds and all), and in terms of actual political influence (because being inside a governing coalition allows you to have leverage on policy, something RC won't have in any case).

Maybe Berlusconi can hold PD-SEL *just* short of a Senate majority.

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Who picked him as leaderface and why? I freely admit I hadn't followed developments since the last election.

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PD wants a French system (two-round single member), Renzi a little more emphatically so than Bersani, but both support it unequivocally. The Monti coalition says the current law sucks but hasn't said anything about what they want to do instead. My bet is that they'd love a "German" system (which would make it impossible for a coalition to rule alone). As for PdL, they have been very good at bullsh*tting about this for the past year or so, and what they would do is anyone's guess.
[/quote]SEL? RC? Does Beppe still want a return to personalized PR, I dimly recall him talking about how it's still actually in the Constitution - this being before he even founded his party?

Thanks for the help especially with the jinxing, Lewis!

I did say "probably". Obviously if things get real close again I'll hold my nose and support SEL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Maybe Berlusconi can hold PD-SEL *just* short of a Senate majority.

Is it really something to wish for? You know I'm not a big fan of "stability" for stability's sake, but Italy really desperately needs some.

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From what I've understood, he took on his own the decision to "step down into politics" ("scendere in politica", as we say following Berlusconi's word), and then a myriad of parties which were in electoral dire straits decided to make him their standard-bearer, probably for the sole reason that he was a new face.

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I haven't heard anything specific from SEL and RC, but I guess they'd by far prefer some PR of sorts, like the other smaller parties (for the same reasons PD supports single-member).

As for M5S, they officially don't want elections at all. They're all about "direct democracy", and will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.

[minionofmidas]

they will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.

And they won't have to look hard, it'll be elephant-sized.

[Antonio the Sixth]

they will find a reason to grumble about whatever electoral reform is done.

And they won't have to look hard, it'll be elephant-sized.

True, true, but they even whined about a decree that divided by four the number of citizen signatures needed to run a list for these elections (effectively making their life much easier).

[Andrea]

Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

I'm sure not gonna miss that one. There's gonna be blood.

[Keystone Phil]

Tonight Berlusconi will be the guest at Santoro's show on La7.

Isn't that the guy that had some big feud (on-going feud, I guess) with Silvio years ago?

[Zanas]

Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it !

[minionofmidas]

Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it !

We clearly need an M5S supporter to complete the triumvirate of supporters of non joke options.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Antonio, you know me, you know I'm on the left side of the Front de gauche here in France, but that I would never vote for the NPA, and besides I profoundly and utterly despise the PD. So I'll let you pick my vote : SEL or RC ? I would be leaning RC right now for just exactly the same reasons as Lewis (actually I was about to write a post pretty much like his own).

So what shall it be ? And justify it !

I can't really say much more than what I've already said to Lewis. There's one thing I must add, though: Vendola is a fascinating politician. It's a shame you don't know Italian, but anyone who does should look up for some of his speeches. They are absolutely beautiful. It's not just political posturing, beautiful promises and the usual stuff, there is something that there has not been in Western politics for a long while: thought. Vendola manages to eloquently combine the moving lyrism of his rhetoric with a deep ideological reflection about the fundamental roots of modern issues. He never appeals to the basic instincts of a crowd, never engages into easy (and effective) populism, but always tries to elevate the debate and speak to the mind of people. Honestly, there are not many politicians I have more respect for than Vendola. He might even be unique. My vote for SEL, whose platform is actually a tad too radical for my tastes, is above all a personal vote for Vendola (it's also a protest vote against the PD, of course).

I don't think Ingroia is a bad guy, but he's supported by a bunch of hacks like the Rifondazione guys, he brings nothing particularly new or interesting to the political stage, and, should I remind you, it's a spoiled vote for the left.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

[Keystone Phil]

The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%