Italy 2013: The official thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's from Sicily... and was Berlusconi's Justice Minister

I'm saying nothing.

[DC Al Fine]

He's from Sicily. He was elected in 2001 and was Berlusconi's Justice Minister during his final term. He became party leader when Berlusconi resigned in 2011.

Sounds promising

[Keystone Phil]

...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

[Vosem]

All the stability of Israel with all the honesty of the Ukraine. This is great!

[Keystone Phil]

I'm reading that part of this deal between PdL and the Traitors is PdL support for Maroni when he runs for President of Lombardy in the special regional election. I wonder how far ahead PD is in that one because handing over the largest region to the leader of Lega Nord would be so very, very sad.

Oh, Berlusconi is also looking to become Finance Minister instead of Prime Minister if the center-right wins.

[SPQR]

Alfano,also known as THE PUPPET.


He would just be the new Medvedev.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Oh, Berlusconi is also looking to become Finance Minister instead of Prime Minister if the center-right wins.

Because that's so much more comforting.

[Andrea]

Are we trusting Berlusconi stepping aside? How many times did he say it?

In his reformist spirit, Monti promises to reform the taxes he created and to lower some taxes. You see we are in the middle of an election campaign.

It would be nice if PD manages to talk about something that it's not their candidates' lists.
And if they can keep Vendola silent for 2 more months.

I'm reading that part of this deal between PdL and the Traitors is PdL support for Maroni when he runs for President of Lombardy in the special regional election. I wonder how far ahead PD is in that one because handing over the largest region to the leader of Lega Nord would be so very, very sad.

PdL was still candidate-less in Lombardy anyway.
Albertini (former Mayor of Milan) is running alone (now with UDC/Monti's support) taking some votes from PDL. PD has a good candidate. He would have won with all the splits on the right.

[SPQR]

Well,even now,in Lombardy the last poll showed a tie between Ambrosoli (center-left) and Maroni (LN+PDL),with Albertini (center) a bit behind.
I think it'll end up like in Sicily,also because Ambrosoli is not someone who should scare away "moderates",whereas Albertini has been Mayor of Milan for Forza Italia and was also elected with Forza Italia to the European Parliament,so most of his votes will come from the right.


And one should never forget how the Formigoni-era ended.

[SPQR]

Also,about the issues:

Berlusconi said that the left is envious of the rich,while he would eliminate the IMU on his first day as PM (or whatever he'll be),and he would lower taxes every year.

This is populism at such a pure state that it's almost funny.

[Diouf]

Finally some regional polls:

Lombardia: Berlusconi coalition 32,5 %, Bersani coalition 32,5 %, Monti coalition 16,3 %, M5S 11,5 %, Ingroia coalition 5,6 %

Campania: Bersani 30,5 %, Berlusconi 28,5 %, Monti 14,2 %, M5S 13,0 %, Ingroia 11,2 %

Lazio: Bersani 39,5 %, Berlusconi 21,6 %, Monti 16,5 %, M5S 14,0 %, Ingroia 6,6 %

Piemonte: Bersani 37,5 %, Berlusconi 25,1 %, Monti 16,8 %, M5S 12,5 %, Ingroia 7,0 %

Sicilia: Berlusconi 27,0 %, Bersani 22,9 %, M5S 19,8 %, Monti 16,2 %, Ingroia 11,0 %


Very high numbers for Ingroia and the Rivoluzione Civile coalition compared to the national polls

From Ipsos/Sole24Ore: http://www.ilsole24ore.com/pdf2010/SoleOnLine5/_Oggetti_Correlati/Documenti/Notizie/2013/01/previsioni-senato.pdf?uuid=c2b52c90-597e-11e2-bfa2-c338601f7959

[Andrea]

Thanks for the figures. They confirm Lombardy is the one too watch.
Lazio and Piemonte looks good for PD. Campania is too close (I suppose Ingroia is benefiting from De Magistris).

However, you are right about Civic Revolution being high compared to national polls (more than 5% in Lombardy would mean they are going to pass the 4% threshold at the House while all national polls put them below it IIRC).

[minionofmidas]

So is RC running as a single list? That's good.

[Keystone Phil]

Whoa. I didn't expect Campania to be that close. Civic Revolution/De Magistris is surely to blame/thank there. I'm also surprised Sicily is still so strong for PdL. Lazio, meanwhile, is a total disaster. What's the deal with Piedmont?

Also,about the issues:

Berlusconi said that the left is envious of the rich,while he would eliminate the IMU on his first day as PM (or whatever he'll be),and he would lower taxes every year.

This is populism at such a pure state that it's almost funny.

And he's promising legal recognition of gay couples now! Not sure how many believe that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

It's possible that I was just trolling you. It has been known over the issue of inherent Sicilian criminality.

[minionofmidas]

...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

It's possible that I was just trolling you. It has been known over the issue of inherent Sicilian criminality.

It's just inherent to Sicilian Conservatism post 1990.

[Keystone Phil]

...I really hope the last comment was just a response to him being Berlusconi's Justice Minister and not blatantly Anti Sicilian...

It's possible that I was just trolling you. It has been known over the issue of inherent Sicilian criminality.

I know you were. It's something I come to expect and pay no mind to. My post was for DC Fine.

[SPQR]

Great numbers for Lazio and Piemonte...honestly I thought my region (Lazio) would have been closer,as it usually is,but what Polverini did as Governor must have had an effect not only on the next regional vote.

At the same time,Ingroia is really,really damaging in Sicily and Campania. I hope that as the campaign goes on,and the enthusiasm for the "new" candidate goes down,SeL will manage to get a good % of that vote.

[Keystone Phil]

PD and M5S continue to slowly drop in polls...

http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2013/01/sondaggio-ipr-pd-31-pdl-17-m5s-13.html

Italia. Bene Comune. - 38% (PD down to 31%)
Center-Right - 27%
Agenda Monti per l'Italia - 16%
M5S - 13%
RC - 2%
FD (Stop the Decline) - 1%
Others - 3%

[Zuza]

What is the Amnistia Giustizia Liberta?

[palandio]

"Amnistia Giustizia Libertà" is the Radical Party (which in the past also ran under the names "Lista Pannella" and "Lista Bonino" after its two main leaders).

The deciding region in the Senate could become Sicily.
Both big alliances are doing everything to win there and new developments occur every day:
The IBC in Sicily will probably run not only with the PD, SEL and CD ("Democratic Center") lists, but also with a Socialist list and with a "megaphone" list. (The megaphone was the symbol for a list that supported center-left governor candidate Rosario Crocetta in the regional elections.)
The Center-right will run an armada of lists.
Micchiché with his "Grande Sud" (a PdL split-off), who in the regional elections ran separately, will support the center-right.
Most of his counsillors have left his party for "Sicilian Voice" under a guy with the nickname "Mister Preferenze" that seems to own a large vote package. And "Sicilian Voice" could run candidates in the Megaphone list, i.e. support the IBC.
Ex-governor Lombardo with his MPA-PdS, who in 2008 ran with Berlusconi, later was part of the center pole and who in the regional elections ran together with Micciché, could end up supporting CD, i.e. the IBC. At least this is what Loiero wants. (Loiero is some Calabrian ex-governor, who has been in many parties and now in the MPA-PdS.)

Urrrgh! Doesn't the center-left remember their experience with Mastella?
Micciché, Lombardo, Mister Preferenze etc. are just...

[Keystone Phil]

There's an official government website listing all of the polls. Do groups have to be registered with the government to publish polls? I assume this is done to make sure they comply with the (silly) poll ban a week or two before the election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Crazy election just became even crazier.

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Crazy election just became even crazier.

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.

This election is only as crazy as 1994 if Grillo wins (because, basically, that's what happened in 1994).

[Andrea]

The PD candidates lists

House
http://www.partitodemocratico.it/Allegati/liste-candidati-camera.pdf

Senate
http://www.partitodemocratico.it/Allegati/liste-senato.pdf

The missing spots were indicated in the early drafted version as "National, Other Parties". So I suppose they are where the Socialist names and I don't know who (they tell me someone from Piemonte's I Moderati may get the Piemonte spot) will be fitted in

No news for Italians Abroad's candidates