which map is more of a possiblity.

[WalterMitty]

map a:

map b:

[memphis]

If you switch Mississippi, it's easily map b given the sad state of GOP nominees. As is, map a is more like simply because there is no way on earth the Magnolia State is going for Obama.

[Mehmentum]

I'll take a guess and say map b, with the caveat that the result wouldn't have to be exactly like the one you showed.

Basically, this question is about what do you think is more likely.  The GOP nominating a complete nutjob, or a double dip recession.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Map A, if only because of Mississippi.

[anvi]

I don't think either map is at all likely.  But, these being the only two choices, I voted for map A.  Map B has the Republican nominee winning only 109 electoral votes, which would translate into a remarkably low PV total.  Even in 2008, McCain got the votes of 59 million Americans, and the GOP has not picked a nominee that took an electoral drubbing nearly as bad as B's scenario in more than forty years.  On the other hand, if we did get a double-dip recession and unemployment went up another two percent or so, I can see Obama getting soundly defeated by a good GOP nominee.  

I think Democrats ought to stop dreaming that Obama will win reelection in a route.  You all may not like the GOP, but they don't pick really bad, i.e. electorally disastrous, nominees for spite.  Their party has too many smart people with too much money to spend on presidential campaigns for that dismal of an outcome.  It's highly doubtful that Obama will get less than 200 electoral votes even in the worst realistically imaginable defeat or more than 360 in the most realistically easy win imaginable, and the race will come down to eight or nine swing states.    

[pbrower2a]

Map B against someone on the lunatic fringe. Maybe I would trade Mississippi and West Virginia for Kentucky and Tennessee, but that would be a wash, anyway.

Map A assumes a spectacular failure of the President. Can anyone see that? 

[5280]

This is more realistic

[WalterMitty]

a note on ms.  it has the largest black population in the nation.  and...in the event of a landslide..a lot of the white peckerwoods just might stay home.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

a note on ms.  it has the largest black population in the nation.  and...in the event of a landslide..a lot of the white peckerwoods just might stay home.

It'd have to be one hell of a lot.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Map A, actually. It could very well happen if we enter a double dip recession and the GOP gets their act together and nominates someone sane.

I doubt Obama will carry Mississippi regardless of what happens.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Map A, easily. No way MS goes for Obama, and TX and WV aren't much more likely. (Nor is AK, unless Palin is nominated, and that's already unlikely.) On the other hand, I can see Map A, if the economy worsens between now and November 2012.

[Miles]

map b would be a good Obama vs. Bachmann/Palin.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Map B looked mostly better, but there is no way Obama would win Mississippi and W. VA in anything short of a complete sweep, in which case many of those other states would be more likely to switch.

I mean, I can conceive of an election where the Republican takes Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey assuming Obama really screws the pooch, but not Obama winning Mississippi.

[DS0816]

…Map B.


Switch Alaska and Mississippi from D to R.

Switch Arkansas and South Carolina from R to D.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Map A, only because of Mississippi. Even Bachmann would win Mississippi.

[t_host1]

…Map B.


Switch Alaska and Mississippi from D to R.

Switch Arkansas and South Carolina from R to D.

I would wager you 2 Infraction points & 2 Moderated posts that Arkansas will be 6 for the (R) in the 2012 presidential election.




Note: Infraction points & Moderated points are a commodity. Be sure to check the Atlasia Currency & Commodity exchange board prior to interring in any currency or commodity trade.

[TheGlobalizer]

MN/WI/MI/NJ/PA to GOP is more likely than MS/TX/GA/AZ/MT to the Dems.  All it takes is a centrist GOP candidate and continued weakness from Obama.