PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[J. J.]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

[Smash255]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

Granted, but Rendell's  sheer approval #'s in Philly, and his past connections to Philly makes it quite a bit tougher for Swann than it otherwise would be.

[J. J.]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

Granted, but Rendell's  sheer approval #'s in Philly, and his past connections to Philly makes it quite a bit tougher for Swann than it otherwise would be.

We are not talking about that much of a gain and a portion of that black population does not live in SEPA.  Also, Rendell really hasn't done anything for Phila as Governor.  It make a likely Rendell victory a toss-up.

[Smash255]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

Granted, but Rendell's  sheer approval #'s in Philly, and his past connections to Philly makes it quite a bit tougher for Swann than it otherwise would be.

We are not talking about that much of a gain and a portion of that black population does not live in SEPA.  Also, Rendell really hasn't done anything for Phila as Governor.  It make a likely Rendell victory a toss-up.

We have seen in other cases that Frican Americans tend to vote heavily Democratic even if the Democrat is white & Republican is black (look at some of the polls coming out of MD with blacks in the Cardin/ Steele race.  Also while you might thuink Rendell hasn't done much for Philly, and some of the black population is outside of SEPA, their is no denying the fact that Rendell has monster #'s there, even for an area thats strongly Dem to begin with his numbers in SEPA are very impressive, which makes Swann picking up 25% of the African American Philly vote quite difficult

[Keystone Phil]

State Senator Pippy endorses Swann - http://www.politicspa.com/pressreleasedetailed.asp?id=383


I might have noted this earlier but I'll say it again anyway: Swann won the central region caucus vote with 77% of the vote while Scranton won in Swann's backyard (Allegheny county).

[Keystone Phil]

Hoeffel leading in hypothetical Lt. Gov poll, beating Knoll, Hafer, Roberts and Wolf - http://politicspa.com/temp/BPB_poll_memo__00013902_.PDF

[nini2287]

How the hell does Knoll have 67% name recognition?  I'm glad to see Hoeffel doing well and I hope he jumps in the race.

[Keystone Phil]

Swann wins Northwest caucus vote -  22-7

[12th Doctor]

How the hell does Knoll have 67% name recognition?  I'm glad to see Hoeffel doing well and I hope he jumps in the race.

Because she has made so many embarassing gaffes.

[Speed of Sound]

Sweet! Hoeffel's got the lead, but he cant mess around with it. If he wants to win, hes gotta get running soon.

[TeePee4Prez]

Sweet! Hoeffel's got the lead, but he cant mess around with it. If he wants to win, hes gotta get running soon.

I definitely want him to run and win.  Baker Knoll's time is up and I want a viable Senate candidate for 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

CapitolWire is reporting that Swann has ruled out participating in any debates before the state committee endorsement.


I'm not happy with him on this one.

[Keystone Phil]

Along with Rasmussen, there was also a Zogby poll showing Swann and Rendell tied while Scranton was down by eight. Then again, it's Zogby...

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, there are alot of Dems jumping on to be a part of the Swann campaign, and im going third party, this might be harder than I once thought....

[Keystone Phil]

When it looks like Swann has the committee vote won, go to plan B (by Scranton) - Keep up the talk of an open primary - http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5scrantonjan24,0,3743735.story?coll=all-news-hed

[nini2287]

When it looks like Swann has the committee vote won, go to plan B (by Scranton) - Keep up the talk of an open primary - http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5scrantonjan24,0,3743735.story?coll=all-news-hed

I didn't see anything about Piccola in that article - did I miss him dropping out, and if so did he endorse Swann?

[riceowl]

Rendell just endorsed the Alito nomination.

I'll assume no effect.

[Speed of Sound]

Rendell just endorsed the Alito nomination.

I'll assume no effect.

Well, any thought I had of endorsing Governor Rendell just went down the toilet.

[nini2287]

Rendell just endorsed the Alito nomination.

I'll assume no effect.

Well, any thought I had of endorsing Governor Rendell just went down the toilet.

Any thought I had of endorsing Rendell just skyrocketed.

[King]

Along with Rasmussen, there was also a Zogby poll showing Swann and Rendell tied while Scranton was down by eight. Then again, it's Zogby...

Swann has a 10-pt advantage if  Rasmussen shows him up 2 and Zogby shows it tied.

[Keystone Phil]

When it looks like Swann has the committee vote won, go to plan B (by Scranton) - Keep up the talk of an open primary - http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5scrantonjan24,0,3743735.story?coll=all-news-hed

I didn't see anything about Piccola in that article - did I miss him dropping out, and if so did he endorse Swann?

He's been out for about awhile now and I don't believe he endorsed anyone.

[J. J.]

How the hell does Knoll have 67% name recognition?  I'm glad to see Hoeffel doing well and I hope he jumps in the race.

She was State Treasurer for eight years, ran for Governor at least once, and ran for Lieutenant Governor.  All of those are elective.  It's easy.

[J. J.]

The is elephant in the parlor that no one talking about, race.  If Swan can get a proportion of the African American vote in Phila, better than Bush's, it suddenly becomes a dead even race.  He gets 25% of the Black vote, holds Fisher's base, Swan wins.

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

He probably has 8%-10%, just be being a Republican and a sports hero.  I'm basically assuming he loses the African American vote 3 to 1.  He doesn't have to get that much, just a small percentage.

[Keystone Phil]

Northeast (expected) and Northeast Central caucuses endorse Scranton - http://www.centredaily.com/mld/centredaily/news/politics/13737241.htm

[Keystone Phil]

Swann wins backing of Montco GOP chair, nearly has committee endorsement won - http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-swannendorse0130,0,6649120.story?coll=all-news-hed