NV-02 special election: 9/13

[krazen1211]

Kate Marshall won the Dem nomination today... 117 votes out of 122.

On Tuesday the NV Supreme Court will hear the case against Miller to see if it'll just be Amodei vs. Marshall, or all 29 (!) candidates who filed to run.

http://krnv.m0bl.net/w/main/story/31263943/

Amodei vs Marshall.

[Holmes]

I wanna know who here is actually pleased that it'll just be those two? An election with 29 candidates would be hella fun.

[Joe Republic]

I wanna know who here is actually pleased that it'll just be those two?

Republicans.

Kirk Lippold had the potential to turn this race into a retread of the recent specials in New York.

[Meeker]

Marshall starts the month with $200,000 on hand, Amodei $60,000

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/Quarter_2_fundraising_leftovers_.html?showall

Of course there will be additional outside money on both sides.

[Lunar]

Don't worry guys, this Amodei guy is already giving off pretty strong Sharon Angle 2.0 vibes (this time with added racism!):

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0611/Amodeis_Red_Scare_.html

I guess subtitles were considered too burdensome for the target group of this ad.

I know it's old news, but that ad's just terrible. Terrible.  Screw the xenophobia, it just feels cheap and cheesy.

You want that to be the ad that introduces you to the district's voters? Really? Who's running this campaign??

Marshall starts the month with $200,000 on hand, Amodei $60,000

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/Quarter_2_fundraising_leftovers_.html?showall

Of course there will be additional outside money on both sides.

Not bad. Even though he's not a statewide elected official, Amodei should really have better fundraising connections if anything, from his history of running the State GOP and its connections to Reno-area money.

Democrats have done well in special elections across the country lately, except for Hawaii where the GOP candidate won with an unimpressive plurality. Without knowing anything about Nevada politics, I have to wonder if union strength will aid the Democrats in what will bound to be another low turnout affair.

[NVGonzalez]

Marshall starts the month with $200,000 on hand, Amodei $60,000

http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/Quarter_2_fundraising_leftovers_.html?showall

Of course there will be additional outside money on both sides.

Sadly I expect Rove and the Kochs to pump a lot of money here.


Ralston said he would be surprised if Marshall won. =/

[NVGonzalez]

I wanna know who here is actually pleased that it'll just be those two?

Republicans.

Kirk Lippold had the potential to turn this race into a retread of the recent specials in New York.

And some GOPers were not too happy about Amodei.

Why does he remind me of Angle?

[Joe Republic]

A debate happened, apparently.

I also just found out that there are two other candidates in the election; both of them random right-wing Indies.

[Tender Branson]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

[Meeker]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

I think it'll be closer than that... Marshall is running basically the same campaign as Hochul did in NY-26 and that was an R+6 district. This one is R+5.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP will probably poll it in the next couple weeks. They didn't poll NY-26 or CA-36 until a week or two before the election.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm a genius!

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[Tender Branson]

Magellan Strategies (R) for Americans for Prosperity (R):

48% Mark Amodei (R)
35% Kate Marshall (D)
  4% Tim Fasano (I)
  2% Helm Lehmann (I)
11% Undecided

2-way-only:

51% Mark Amodei (R)
36% Kate Marshall (D)

Favorables:

Amodei: 38% favorable, 36% unfavorable
Marshall: 33% favorable, 43% unfavorable

Marshall's campaign said it was not surprised by the polling, considering it was commissioned by Americans for Prosperity.

"It's no surprise that a highly conservative group like Americans for Prosperity would produce polling with favorable numbers for the conservative candidate," Marshall spokesman James Hallinan said. "However, the poll confirms the same thing that the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) knows full well, given they have spent half a million dollars in this race and just this week doubled down on their TV buy, that the race is still very much in play."

...

The poll was conducted by Magellan Data and Mapping of Louisville, Colo. The auto-dial survey of 656 homes was conducted Aug. 15 and Aug. 16. It has a margin of error of less than 4 percent.

A Magellan spokesman said the company stands by the accuracy of its polling, no matter what group commissioned Magellan's services.

"If we tried to screw around with something, and the results were way off, it doesn't make us look good at all," David Flaherty said. "Nobody would want to hire us. I can guarantee you 100 percent that if we would have done this survey on our own, we would have done it the exact same way in regards to interviewing and weighting and conducting the survey the way we did it."

http://www.rgj.com/article/20110819/NEWS/108190340/Poll-shows-Mark-Amodei-holds-13-point-lead-over-Kate-Marshall

[Tender Branson]

Now the PPP poll will be very interesting.

Magellan completely blew the 2010 Nevada Senate race by overestimating Angle by about 11 points.

And they also blew the Colorado Gubernatorial race by about 14 points, predicting that Tancredo would only lose by 1 point, instead of 15 points.

But they did really well in the Wisconsin recall race where the Democrat slightly won, so we'll see.

[Holmes]

It will be quite the techtonic shift if the Pubbie wins. The shock waves will roll right across the fruited plain.

A Republican winning in a Republican district? Or sarcasm?

[Miles]

NV-02 is less Republican than NY-26, so I still think its a tossup.

[Holmes]

Nevada and New York are clearly different states, though. Incomparable.

[Miles]

Still, from a purely PVI standpoint.

From what I've seen, Amodei has run a pretty controversial campaign.

[Torie]

It will be quite the techtonic shift if the Pubbie wins. The shock waves will roll right across the fruited plain.

A Republican winning in a Republican district? Or sarcasm?

Damn, I thought we were talking about the Weiner seat for some reason!  Oh dear.  LOL. I'm going to delete my post.  LOL.

[Joe Republic]

A second debate happened, this time without the two indies.  Apparently it was pretty lively.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/aug/22/amodei-and-marshall-spar-second-debate/

[Tender Branson]

PPP predicts a very close race:

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"Tomorrow morning" is of course today.

[Lief 🗽]

Clearly if we just canceled general elections, the Democrats would, given enough time, win back the house through special election victories.

[Brittain33]

I'm considering that PPP is withholding the poll because of wonky results. A 1-point race seems unlikely given this, which is not a Politico story:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/analysis-gop-early-buy-in-nevada-special-paying-off-208258-1.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Tender Branson]

I'm considering that PPP is withholding the poll because of wonky results. A 1-point race seems unlikely given this, which is not a Politico story:

http://www.rollcall.com/news/analysis-gop-early-buy-in-nevada-special-paying-off-208258-1.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

PPP isn't "withholding" anything.

PPP conducts each weekend poll from Thursday night until Sunday night. Tabulating the results take another day. And because DailyKos is from California, they are unlikely to release results for this poll until at least noon Eastern. I expect the results will be out in the next 3-4 hours, like before.

[DrScholl]

About the Magellan poll

http://www.rgj.com/section/blogs01?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&U=063a1ff4-7a74-4c66-8976-85b765479560&plckPostId=Blog:063a1ff4-7a74-4c66-8976-85b765479560Post:fe2ea831-ef27-4113-9e68-f105eb5e54e4&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest

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