South African Municipal Elections 2011

[ag]

Ulundi, KwaZulu-Natal - IFP hold (they did hold their "capital" ) )

IFP 28 (-16)
NFP 13 (+13)
ANC 6 (+4)
NDC 0 (-1)

[ag]

Tshwane Metro (Pretoria), Gauteng - ANC hold

Note: this is a merger of what in 2006 were 3 councils. comparison w/ the sum total of the councilors for all three.

ANC 118 (+5)
DA 82 ( (+27)
VF+ 4 (-5)
COPE 2 (+2)
PAC 1 (-2)
ACDP 1 (-4)
APC 1 (+1)
APO 1 (nil)
ID 0 (-1)
UCDP 0 (-1)
ACAA 0 (-1)
IFP 0 (-1)
CDP 0 (-1)

[ag]

Buffalo Metro (East London), Eastern Cape - ANC hold

ANC 71 (-2)
DA 21 (+10)
COPE 3 (+3)
PAC 2 (-1)
AIC 2 (+2)
ACDP 1 (nil)
UDM 0 (-1)

[ag]

Polokwane (Pietersburg), Limpopo - ANC hold

ANC 61 (+3)
DA 9 (+2)
COPE 3 (+3)
ACDP 1 (-1)
APO 1 (nil)
VF+ 1 (nil)
UIF 0 (-1)
UDM 0 (-1)
PAC 0 (-1)
Independent 0 (-1)

[ag]

Karoo Hogland (Fraserburg), Northern Cape - NOC gain from ANC

ANC 3 (-1)
COPE 2 (+2)
DA 2 (nil)
ACDP 0 (-1)

[ag]

Hantam (Calvinia), Northern Cape - NOC gain from ANC

ANC 4 (-2)
DA 4 (+1)
COPE 1 (+1)

Nama Khoi (Springbok), Northern Cape - NOC gain from ANC

ANC 8 (-1)
DA 6 (+4)
COPE 3 (+3)
ID 0 (-6)

[ag]

eThekwini Metro (Durban), KwaZulu Natal - ANC hold

ANC 126 (+9)
DA 43 (+9)
MF 11 (-2)
NFP 10 (+10)
IFP 9 (-14)
ACDP 2 (-1)
TA 1 (-1)
COPE 1 (+1)
APC 1 (+1)
Independent 1 (nil)
NDC 0 (-2)
ID 0 (-2)
SCP 0 (-1)
UDM 0 (-1)
APO 0 (-1)

[ag]

Magaung Metro (Bloemfontein), Free State - ANC hold

ANC 65 (nil)
DA 26 (+11)
COPE 3 (+3)
VF+ 2 (-1)
APC 1 (+1)
UCDP 0 (-2)
PAC 0 (-2)
ACDP 0 (-1)
DPSA 0 (-1)

[ag]

Emnambithi (Ladysmith), KwaZulu/Natal - ANC hold

ANC 34 (+6)
IFP 8 (-8)
NFP 6 (+6)
DA 4 (+1)
MF 1 (nil)
ACDP 0 (-1)
NDC 0 (-1)

[ag]

(something unusual ) )

Beaufort West, Western Cape: ANC gain from NOC

ANC 7 (+2)
DA 5 (+3)
ICOSA 1 (-4)
ID 0 (-1)

Laingsburg, Western Cape: NOC hold

DA 3 (+1)
ANC 3 (+1)
COPE 1 (+1)
LGP 0 (-2)

[ag]

Umzimkhulu, KwaZulu/Natal - ANC hold

ANC 36 (+3)
NFP 2 (+2)
IFP 1 (-1)
Independent 1 (+1)
UDM 0 (-1)

[ag]

A-a-a-nd, finally, Capetown!

Capetown, Western Cape - DA gain from NOC

DA 135 (+45)
ANC 73 (-8)
ACDP 3 (-4)
COPE 3 (+3)
NPSA 1 (+1)
UDM 1 (-1)
Al Jama-Ah 1 (+1)
Africa Muslim Party 1 (-2)
Cape Muslim Congress 1 (+1)
PAC 1 (nil)
VF+ 1 (nil)
ID 0 (-23)
UIF 0 (-1)
UP 0 (-1)

Of course, ID simply merged into DA, and the new mayor is the former ID leader. Still, DA this time got over 9% of the vote more than DA+ID last time. Quite a feat!

Also, to be noted, of the 111 wards from which councilors were elected on FPTP DA actually took 78, while ANC only 33 (in 2006 it was DA 61, ANC 41, ID 3).

[Verily]

What's with the Muslim parties in Cape Town? Are those primarily Muslim South Asians who have been there a while or Muslim Africans who recently moved there? Or something else?

[ag]

Whoever they are, don't overestimate their importance: the three parties between themselves got votes of, may be just over 10,000 people, out of over a million Cape Town residents who showed up at the polls. This is a VERY proportional system )) Hey, even the roughly 2000 people who voted for VF+ got their councilor ))

And, of course, there are a lot of traditional Muslim communities in the area - Indians, Malaysians, etc.

[tpfkaw]

So would somebody mind giving perhaps a somewhat deeper primer (than what's available from Wiki) on South African politics?  What I understand already is that the ANC is a typical third-world corrupt kleptocracy that's essentially been getting increasingly more corrupt and nutcaseish as time goes on (yet still receives overwhelming support from the black population).  The DA is the non-corrupt party positioned vaguely to the right of the ANC and receives support from non-blacks.  Other parties are ethnically or regionally based and are somewhat irrelevant.  South Africa also seems to be suffering from a case of sinistrisme.  Correct?

[redcommander]

So would somebody mind giving perhaps a somewhat deeper primer (than what's available from Wiki) on South African politics?  What I understand already is that the ANC is a typical third-world corrupt kleptocracy that's essentially been getting increasingly more corrupt and nutcaseish as time goes on (yet still receives overwhelming support from the black population).  The DA is the non-corrupt party positioned vaguely to the right of the ANC and receives support from non-blacks.  Other parties are ethnically or regionally based and are somewhat irrelevant.  South Africa also seems to be suffering from a case of sinistrisme.  Correct?

Yes, although the DA has shown growth this election with black voters going from 2% to 6%, which is still dismal, but a sign that at least the black majority is starting to be open to voting for them. I'm not sure about the sinistrisme part though. The most important result from the election is that the ANC no longer has a stronghold over urban areas of the country. The DA won Cape Town with a larger majority with about 60% support, and held the ANC under 60% in Johannesburg and Pretoria. The ANC almost lost Port Elizabeth, but too many COPE supporters went back to voting for the ANC this election for an opposition coalition to materialize. In Bloemfontein, the ANC is also now below 70%. This sets the DA up for an excellent chance of winning a plurality of voters in most metros in 2014, and gaining control by 2016. The smaller swings towards the opposition outside of the Three Capes and Gauteng probably won't allow them to take control of national government by 2014 though barring a major split in ANC support, but by 2019, the country should be in for a two party horserace.

[Verily]

So would somebody mind giving perhaps a somewhat deeper primer (than what's available from Wiki) on South African politics?  What I understand already is that the ANC is a typical third-world corrupt kleptocracy that's essentially been getting increasingly more corrupt and nutcaseish as time goes on (yet still receives overwhelming support from the black population).  The DA is the non-corrupt party positioned vaguely to the right of the ANC and receives support from non-blacks.  Other parties are ethnically or regionally based and are somewhat irrelevant.  South Africa also seems to be suffering from a case of sinistrisme.  Correct?

Left-right is completely meaningless in a country like South Africa. The ANC is not particularly leftist, nor is the DA to their right in any meaningful way. The DA is a little bit less economically interventionist, but that's not the same as being on the right.

The divides are along racial lines almost exclusively. DA voters are white or "Coloured" (nominally meaning mixed-race, but most Coloureds are in fact Khoisans, which means they are paler than the Bantus and their parents or grandparents or great-grandparents pretended to be mixed-race during Apartheid as it got them more rights). ANC voters are Bantus, usually poor. Middle class Bantus used to vote ANC solidly, but they may be the group of Bantus that flipped to the DA this election. South Asians in South Africa mostly vote either for the small Minority Front, which has some influence in Durban, or for the DA.

Also, Sinistrisme? I don't see it. Portugal, now that's a country with serious Sinistrisme going on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What I understand already is that the ANC is a typical third-world corrupt kleptocracy that's essentially been getting increasingly more corrupt and nutcaseish as time goes on (yet still receives overwhelming support from the black population).

If the ANC was typical of ruling parties in third world countries, then I think that the world would be a much better place.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Anyone know anything about the National Freedom Party taking a lot of support away from the IFP?

[ag]

Anyone know anything about the National Freedom Party taking a lot of support away from the IFP?

Recent splinter from IFP: not even a year old. Also a Zulu party, but w/ a different leader, who, of course, also used to be IFP. Nobody expected it to do this well (not even themselves), but, I guess, more than a few  Zulus hate Mangosuthu Buthelezi, without being ready to switch to ANC. In the future it may either fold back into IFP (perhaps, even swallowing it), or it may serve as a conduit for traditional Zulus into ANC.

[bgwah]

So would somebody mind giving perhaps a somewhat deeper primer (than what's available from Wiki) on South African politics?  What I understand already is that the ANC is a typical third-world corrupt kleptocracy that's essentially been getting increasingly more corrupt and nutcaseish as time goes on (yet still receives overwhelming support from the black population).  The DA is the non-corrupt party positioned vaguely to the right of the ANC and receives support from non-blacks.  Other parties are ethnically or regionally based and are somewhat irrelevant.  South Africa also seems to be suffering from a case of sinistrisme.  Correct?

I don't know about that. I guess it's possible the DA might be more "moderate" or "centrist" (whatever that means in the context of South Africa) than its predecessor parties were if only because the other white parties have dissolved or declined. VF+ fell from 2.17% to 0.83% between 1994 and 2009. The NP/NNP is gone. Presumably most of these voters are supporting the DA now. The DA seems to have rebuilt the white-coloured coalition the NP had in 1994. But that's not quite the same as what you're suggesting.

[ag]

So, a brief primer.

ANC is the classic national liberation movement-turned-party of power. As such it is the "big tent" party, with multiple ideologies represented. For that matter, it is even the formal heir of the old NP, which, after some hiatus chose to join it - though, of course, few of its old supporters vote ANC.

Fortunately, at least so far, ANC hasn't been too bad. Of course, it has its share of corrupt and/or vicious SOBs in its ranks and leadership, but it also has competent policymakers, and it chose, for the most part (though not without grave exceptions) to stick to the fundamentally sound and liberal institutions of SAfrican democracy. As such, it is more like the old (pre-1970s) INC in india, then most similar national liberation movements in Africa. Of course, like INC it also plays identity politics, which, in the context of SA has confirmed it as "the black" party, at least in urban areas (it seems to retain some Colored support in more rural parts of the former Cape province).

[ag]

Like ANC DA is not a particularly ideological party. It is the formal heir of the old anti-apartheid Democratic Party, which is well reflected in the top leadership, but is less obvious at the rank-and-file level. These days it is, mostly, a "non-black" party. In some parts of the country, that means "white" (at the last national elections they managed to put up a blonde woman as their top candidate in Mpumalanga, of all places), but in recent years they managed to consolidate the Colored vote as well (the process strengthened by the recent merger w/ the Independent Democrats). As the governing, and now the dominant, party in Western Cape, their main point is "efficient delivery of services".  To a large extent it is similar to ANC as a "big tent party" - I wouldn't search for a party-wide ideology there.

The only other parties of any consequence at this point are COPE (a one-time threatening splinter from the ANC, fast on its way to irrelevance, it seems; IFP - the Zulu-based force, which used to be the main ANC rival in Zululand, but which seems to be increasingly losing its point, especially now that  both ANC and the country are led by a Zulu; and NFP, which I've described above.

[Dan the Roman]

Looking at the results of actual votes(ie. the PR list) and the changes from 2009

National
ANC -3245K
DA/ID +207K
COPE -1015k
FF+ - 93K

Eastern Cape

ANC -284K
DA/ID +52K
COPE -220K(Did not want to do the exact math)

Free State
ANC -197K
DA +28K
COPE -92K

Gautang
ANC -607K
DA +88K
COPE -290K

Northern Cape
ANC -27K
DA +8K
COPE -7K

A brief survey seems to indicate that while the DA did make gains, a lot ANC votes, and virtually all of the COPE electorate simply ceased to exist. It mainly looks like the DA simply consolidated the rest of the Coloured vote.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

These ward results are really interesting: http://maps.elections.org.za/lgeresults/