South African Municipal Elections 2011

[redcommander]

I noticed no one has made a thread on this yet, I think the DA has an excellent shot at winning significantly more support than they did in 2009.

http://www.leadershiponline.co.za/articles/politics/1221-election-watch-2011

[homelycooking]

I think a more interesting outcome to watch for from the elections will be the performance of COPE. If it performs well, especially in the Jo'burg metro area, it might be on the way to some sort of permanence as a credible alternative to the ANC.

[redcommander]

I think a more interesting outcome to watch for from the elections will be the performance of COPE. If it performs well, especially in the Jo'burg metro area, it might be on the way to some sort of permanence as a credible alternative to the ANC.

If anything I think they will probably loss support unfortunately. COPE has been plagued by infighting the last two years, and the Shilowa faction of the party is apparently not contesting the elections.
http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Politics/Shilowa-faction-wont-contest-elections-20110329-2

I think the Joburg area will be especially interesting considering that the DA put up a very appealing to the Black voters they need in order to take control of the city. The party wants and needs to do well in Gauteng in May if they want an actual shot of challenging the ANC for the Presidency come 2014.

http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=137278

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2011-03-25-is-the-da-new-black/

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

if they want an actual shot of challenging the ANC for the Presidency come 2014.

I wouldn't get your hopes up. The DA is stronger than it's ever been right now but it will have no chance of beating the ANC in a national election in the near future.

[Peter the Lefty]

Hope the DA does well.  Not that I'm a huge fan, but it'd be a nice punishment to the ANC. 

BTW, I'm new to South African politics.  One question.  A coalition government (nationally) is possible, theoretically, right?  Not that it's realistic, but if no party could form a majority, then it would be a coalition government right?  Or is there something about South African politics and governments I don't know?

[redcommander]

Hope the DA does well.  Not that I'm a huge fan, but it'd be a nice punishment to the ANC. 

BTW, I'm new to South African politics.  One question.  A coalition government (nationally) is possible, theoretically, right?  Not that it's realistic, but if no party could form a majority, then it would be a coalition government right?  Or is there something about South African politics and governments I don't know?

Correct, but I believe the ANC would have the first try at forming a government if they won no majority in 2014.

[Peter the Lefty]

Hope the DA does well.  Not that I'm a huge fan, but it'd be a nice punishment to the ANC. 

BTW, I'm new to South African politics.  One question.  A coalition government (nationally) is possible, theoretically, right?  Not that it's realistic, but if no party could form a majority, then it would be a coalition government right?  Or is there something about South African politics and governments I don't know?

Correct, but I believe the ANC would have the first try at forming a government if they won no majority in 2014.

That probably won't happen right? I mean, the ANC getting less than half the vote in 2014?  Is public opinion really that much against them, even with no viable alternative (at least until the DA gets its act together and puts a few more blacks in its shadow cabinet.  Then it can be taken seriously)

[redcommander]

Hope the DA does well.  Not that I'm a huge fan, but it'd be a nice punishment to the ANC. 

BTW, I'm new to South African politics.  One question.  A coalition government (nationally) is possible, theoretically, right?  Not that it's realistic, but if no party could form a majority, then it would be a coalition government right?  Or is there something about South African politics and governments I don't know?

Correct, but I believe the ANC would have the first try at forming a government if they won no majority in 2014.

That probably won't happen right? I mean, the ANC getting less than half the vote in 2014?  Is public opinion really that much against them, even with no viable alternative (at least until the DA gets its act together and puts a few more blacks in its shadow cabinet.  Then it can be taken seriously)

There could be a bigger split within the ANC than the one that caused COPE to form that could lead to them being vulnerable in 2014, but it's probably unlikely they can lose until 2019.

[redcommander]

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/Local-Elections-2011/Zille-Zuma-both-campaigning-in-Port-Elizabeth-20110509

[homelycooking]

LOL, I look at the top of the page in that link and I see "Julius Malema sparks new race row".

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, this gem from Motlanthe: "The ANC is non-racial"

[redcommander]

LOL, I look at the top of the page in that link and I see "Julius Malema sparks new race row".

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, this gem from Motlanthe: "The ANC is non-racial"

Yes it's quite sad how racially focused the ANC is. Port Elizabeth is likely to be lost by them, which would be a major blow to the party. The party only earned 49% of the vote there at the presidential election in 2009. I'm surprised to see Johannesburg is also a battleground, since the ANC isn't quite as unpopular there as in Tshwane/Pretoria.

[redcommander]

http://www.news24.com/maps?year=2006

News 24 has a nice map up showing results from the last municipal elections. It's interesting that Pretoria is so close to being lost from the ANC. The opposition only needs a swing of about 7% for a coalition to take control of the city. The PR system seems to have given slightly more seats to the ANC than they won in the popular vote.

[ag]

Polls closing in 1 minute.

[Insula Dei]

When will we see results?

[ag]

Who knows?

[Dan the Roman]

By Saturday I hear. The first results should be tomorrow afternoon.

[Dan the Roman]

First results
Randfontein Ward 74802011

ANC 4
DA 3

[ag]

There are reporst from quite a few municipalities, and the first - very sparse - returns look VERY good for DA, especially in the Northern Cape. Still too early - probably, ANC will take the lead soon. But, so far, most reporting municipalities give leads to DA (13 for DA, 6 for ANC) - such are the laws of small numbers ))

[Dan the Roman]

Overalle, the vote totals with 43,000 votes counted are

ANC 50%
DA    41%

Early results almost always favour the DA, but I think at this point in 2009 these same areas were giving them 29% or so, so a brief look gives them an 11% or so swing.

[ag]

So far, ANC seems to be ahead in 24 municipalities and DA in 23 - won't last, of course ) Last time they won smthg like 10, if I am not mistaken.

[ag]

So far the leads are (in a few cases on a few thousand votes, mostly on a few dosen):

Western Cape
Cape Agulhas - DA
Theewaterskloof - DA
Drakenstein - DA
Langeberg - DA
Cederberg - DA
Prince Albert - DA
Knysna - DA
Mossel Bay - DA
Hessequa - DA
Kannaland - Icosa (!?)
Beaufort West - ANC


Northern Cape
Karoo Hoogland (Fraserburg) - DA
Hantam (Calvinia) - DA
Kamiesberg (Haries) - ANC
Ubuntu (Victoria West) - DA
Kareeberg (Carnarvon) - DA
Emthanjeni (Aar) - DA
Renosterberg (Phillipstown) - DA
Thembelihle (Hopetown) - DA
!Kheis (Goblershoop) - ANC
Tsantsabane (Postmasburg) - DA
Gamagara (Kathu) - DA
Ga-Segonyana (Kuruman) - ANC
Dikgatlong (Barkley West) - ANC
Nama Khoi (Springbok) - DA

[ag]

Eastern Cape
Ku-Kamma (Kareedouw) - DA
Camdeboo - DA
Ikwezi - DA
Makana (Grahamstown) - DA
Ndlambe (Port Alfred) - ANC
Ngqushwa (Pedie) - ANC
Nxuba (Adelaide) - ANC
Amahlathi (Stutterheim) - ANC
Great Kei - DA
Tsolwana (Tarkastad) - ANC
Inkwanca (Molteno) - ANC
Lukhanji (Queenstown) - ANC
Intiska Yethwu (Cofimvaba) - ANC
Gariep (Burgersdorp) - DA
Malitswai (Aliwal North)- ANC
King Samata Dalindyebo (Umtata) - ANC
Nyandeni (Libode) - ANC
Ngkuza Hill (Flagstaff) - aNC
Umzimbuvu (Mount Ayliff) - ANC
Matatiele - ANC

[ag]

Northwest
Lekwa-Teewane (Christiana) - ANC
Maquassi Hills (Wolmaransstad) - DA

Mpumalanga
Lekwa (Standerton) - ANC
Highlands (Belfast) - ANC
Umjindi (Barberton) - ANC
Govan Mbeki (Highland Ridge) - ANC

Limpopo
Thulamela (Thohoyandou) - ANC
Lepele-Nkumpi (Lebowakgomo) - ANC
Lephalale (Ellisras) - ANC
Bela-Bela (Warmbad) - DA

Gauteng
Randfontein - ANC
Mogale City (Krugersdorp) - ANC

[Dan the Roman]

It may be best to avoid conclusions on partial returns. Voting is extremely polarized racially and therefore between wards. There will be wards in most areas where the ANC and DA will win 0 votes or close to it.

[ag]

It may be best to avoid conclusions on partial returns. Voting is extremely polarized racially and therefore between wards. There will be wards in most areas where the ANC and DA will win 0 votes or close to it.

Of course. I am just trying to keep track of what's reporting to notice changes as the night goes.