Irish Election Results Thread

[Хahar 🤔]

Are those the Healy-Raes?

[patrick1]

Are those the Healy-Raes?

Yes.

[minionofmidas]

Are those the Healy-Raes?

Aye.

Pretty much everywhere now being on hold as lesser FG candidates seek recounts. [/slight exaggeration. Alas, slight]

[DistingFlyer]

I'm sure that (like Cameron & the Tories) Kenny & Fine Gael are rather glad they didn't get an outright majority - they may ally with independents, but a Labour coalition is more likely, which means that there'll be two parties to absorb voter anger in the coming years rather than just one.

[Kevinstat]

Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

They are yes.
They are distibuted where there is sufficient surpus ballots to save the next to be exluded candidate.

Does the quota go down when there are exhausted ballots?  Otherwise I can't see why a 6th count was necessary in Kerry South.

[minionofmidas]

The quota is not amended.

Griffin's surplus was 1540. Healy-Rae's lead on Sheehan (a third defeated FG incumbent, btw) was only 1461. You're right that Fleming was actually safe by then, but declaring someone elected without a quota when there are still things to count is apparently not done.

[Kevinstat]

The quota is not amended.

Griffin's surplus was 1540. Healy-Rae's lead on Sheehan (a third defeated FG incumbent, btw) was only 1461. You're right that Fleming was actually safe by then, but declaring someone elected without a quota when there are still things to count is apparently not done.

Thanks.  My quick math was bad.  I thought Griffin's surplus was much smaller.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?

[Kevinstat]

Have any recounts changed results so far?  Even the order of eliminations, declared elections and surpluss transfers?

[Хahar 🤔]

Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?

Recounts

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are the last constituencies so slow to count ballots ?

Recounts

But even before recounts were called it seemed like the last 5-7 constituencies were still counting whereas any other had already finished since a while.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why does Dick Roche want a recount? He's not going to win.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a map showing the drop in Fianna Fail's vote:



Their biggest falls came in the Dublin area, particularly in the north. They dropped less in the inner areas, but of course they had fewer votes to lose there. The smallest decline was in Mayo, where they had only 24% in 2007.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looking at the Wicklow results... Kavanagh's transfers to his running mates seem rather poor : less than 60%. It would be a shame if Labour didn't manage to elect a single MP despite polling over the quota.

[minionofmidas]

Why does Dick Roche want a recount? He's not going to win.

Nor is Liam Quinn.

[minionofmidas]

Have any recounts changed results so far?  Even the order of eliminations, declared elections and surpluss transfers?

There's a rumour that the all day Galway East recount will result in McHugh pipping Broderick after all.

[minionofmidas]

And Wicklow has apparently adjourned. They seem to think they have many months to count.

[minionofmidas]

Which type of politicAL distirbution the new independents are.

Tom Fleming, Michael Healy-Rae, Mattie McGrath - iFF
Michael Lowry - iFG, not that it makes a difference in practice
Shane Ross, Mick Wallace - sorta like the PDs
John Halligan, Seamus Healy - Trots
Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan - also left field, but not far out or anything
Catherine Murphy - ?
Thomas Pringle - ?
Ming Flanagan - free weed & free peat

[Hash]

Pringle is ex-SF, so presumably left. My paper tells me Murphy is 'left' though that's based on assumptions based on Wikipedia.

[ilikeverin]

Pringle is ex-SF, so presumably left. My paper tells me Murphy is 'left' though that's based on assumptions based on Wikipedia.

According to Wiki, Thomas Pringle (who didn't have a Wiki page until... yesterday) is some variety of lefty.

[Sam Spade]

Now the fun starts.  Question is whether the new guys will figure out why the old guys lost and take the correct steps - otherwise, they'll be booted out the next time too b/c it ain't like the situation will change much.

[ObserverIE]

Two questions,

Will there be a by election in Dublin for European Parliament

No. A replacement list is offered by each candidate before the European Parliament elections and the replacement will be appointed from that list.

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On the left:

Five from the United Left Alliance:
Higgins (Dublin West), Daly (Dublin North) - both Socialist Party.
Boyd-Barrett (Dún Laoghaire), Collins (Dublin South Central) - both People Before Profit (Boyd-Barrett is a member of the Socialist Workers' Party, whose front organisation People Before Profit is, while Collins is a former member of the Socialist Party).
Healy (Tipperary South) - Workers and Unemployed Action Group (local group in Clonmel town).

Other left:
O'Sullivan (Dublin Central) and McGrath (Dublin North Central) - both associated with the late Tony Gregory, would be generally left of Labour but pragmatic where local issues are concerned.
Murphy (Kildare North) - former member of the Workers' Party,Democratic Left and Labour who left the latter party in 2004.
Halligan (Waterford) - former member of the Workers' Party who left due to disagreements on local service charges, was unsucessfully wooed by Labour as a candidate earlier this year.
Pringle (Donegal South West) - originally elected as an independent to the local county council and then self-described as a "republican socialist", then joined and subsequently left Sinn Féin.
Wallace (Wexford) - building contractor and property developer who runs the local soccer team and who was noted during the last decade for using properties to host banners opposing Irish facilitation of the US invasion of Iraq and the war in Kosovo among other causes. Leftish but maverick.

"Gene-pool" FF:
Fleming (Kerry South) - stood as an independent after failing to be selected at this election.
McGrath (Tipperary South) - spent four years as a semi-permanent stone in the shoe of successive Fianna Fáil leaders before finally jumping ship earlier this year.
Healy-Rae (Kerry South) - no more need be said.

"Gene-pool" FG:
Lowry (Tipperary North) - former FG cabinet minister who was forced to stand down and subsequently resigned as a party member due to questionable business links, has acted as a "sugar daddy" for his constituency (a current major project is a proposed casino in a small village just off the main Dublin-Limerick road).

Other right:

Ross (Dublin South) - stockbroker, business journalist and general commentator and campaigner on shareholder issues. Has gained notice for his criticism of the business culture that led to the current crash (although he was less critical of some of the major figures involved during the time of the bubble itself). Member of the Senate for Trinity College Dublin and briefly a member of Fine Gael in the early 90s, which liaison ended badly.
Donnelly (Wicklow - possible) - former management consultant with McKinsey and Harvard Kennedy School of Government graduate, campaigned on economic issues in generally vague terms.

Both of these are highly critical of the terms of the EU/IMF bailout and general banking policy.

Others:
Flanagan (Roscommon-South Leitrim) - commonly known as "Ming", first stood as a campaigner for the legalisation of cannabis in the early 00s, later widened his appeal as a community activist and was elected to the Roscommon County Council in 2004. One of his main issues over the last few years has been in opposition to restrictions on turf-cutting brought in by EU regulations (the ability to cut and use turf as fuel instead of other fuels being a major issue in rural areas).

[Хahar 🤔]

What's the matter with Kerry N-W Limerick? It doesn't seem like the sort of place to elect 1 Lab and 1 SF out of three seats.

[ObserverIE]

Shane Ross, Mick Wallace - sorta like the PDs

Ross, very much so. Wallace, though, is a million miles away from the PDs.

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Healy is certainly an ex-Trot. Halligan was a member of the Workers' Party, which is very definitely not Trotskyite.

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I'd group these three fairly close together.

[ObserverIE]

What's the matter with Kerry N-W Limerick? It doesn't seem like the sort of place to elect 1 Lab and 1 SF out of three seats.

Large leftish vote in Tralee, which is a sizeable town by Irish standards, combined with a large republican vote in Kerry generally.