Irish Election Results Thread

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Gombeen Dynasty and Tom "I´m not FF really" Fleming elected in Kerry South. Oh well...

[YL]

The cap survives:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/kerry-south.html

[minionofmidas]

Thank God. There is still some insanity left in this world.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, their caps are magical, so maybe it shouldn't come as a surprise.

[Franzl]

Well done to Irish Labour!

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

[minionofmidas]

The cap survives:
http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/kerry-south.html

"Kapp" in my dialect is a mild insult also used as a term of an endearment, and implying stupidity or sillyness.
Very fitting, somehow.

[minionofmidas]

Boyd also elected - gap grew on surplus redistribution.

[minionofmidas]

Funny how the five outstanding constituencies split the country down the middle.

[Hash]

Well done to Irish Labour!

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

[You kip if you want to...]

Well done to Irish Labour!

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

True, but becoming the second party isn't really anything to be sniffed at.

[Franzl]

Well done to Irish Labour!

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

True, but becoming the second party isn't really anything to be sniffed at.

Indeed, but being junior coalition partner yet again, I imagine, will ruin their long-term chances of becoming a "serious" player.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It´s probably a combination of the Sea air, the Monkstown area (which attracts alot of "arty" types) and perhaps the most important, historical residues of the region´s unionism which has easily converted into Liberal anti-Catholicism.

Ah, so an area radically outside cultural norms leading to a tendency to vote for unusual candidates/parties; makes sense and it isn't as though such places are unusual outside Ireland.

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Some of the drops in support there are just astounding; in Dublin NW the FF vote fell by 37.1pts and while things weren't quite so extreme elsewhere...

Actually the survival of FF's working class base in 'seedy Dublin' until this year is probably more remarkable than the collapse itself, as essentially rural voting patterns in a big city are wont to be.

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Yeah, that's true. FG suffering from identification with middle class politics?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well done to Irish Labour!

Not sure they should be happy about possibly forming government in the long-term.

Yeah, in reality this isn't so good for them. They risk association with a government led by a stupid used car salesman which will inevitably be unpopular soon.

True, but becoming the second party isn't really anything to be sniffed at.

Indeed, but being junior coalition partner yet again, I imagine, will ruin their long-term chances of becoming a "serious" player.

Things may be different this time; there are now elements in Fine Gael that would much rather cobble together some sort of arrangement with independents than deal with their traditional partners and the very fact that Fine Gael clearly won the election might alter priorities. Of course things might continue as they have always done regardless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on the situation in the 7 remaining constituencies, here is an estimate of realistic best and worst case scenarios for each party :

FG : 75 to 79
Lab : 35 to 38
FF : 19 to 22
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 16 to 21

Updated :

FG : 74 to 79
Lab : 36 to 38
FF : 19 to 21
SF : 13 to 15
Oth : 17 to 21

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will labour join a FG-led coalition ? It would be a rather stupid thing to do at this point.

[minionofmidas]

Carlow-Kilkenny didn't manage to elect five candidates in one count. It actually looked possible (though never likely.) Now the SF redistribution elected Labour and one FF guy, and they're redistributing Labour's surplus to show nothing in the world can save the other FF guy and there are indeed three FG seats here.

[minionofmidas]

And technically, the last Green is only just being redistributed now by the slowcounting folks of Wicklow.

[You kip if you want to...]

John Gormley blames the Green's failure on doing a "deal with the devil". Look across the Irish sea, Nick.

[Јas]

Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

They are yes.
They are distibuted where there is sufficient surpus ballots to save the next to be exluded candidate.

[minionofmidas]

Derek Nolan elected in Galway, with a mini surplus still large enough to determine which FG candidate gets the shaft. (The other two and Noel Grealish would then presumably be elected, shutting Catherine Connolly out.)

[Јas]

Who said the PDs were dead?
5 have been or will be elected this time out... more than in 2007.

Noel Grealish (i-Galway W)
Ciaran Cannon (FG-Galway E)
Mary Mitchell O’Connor (FG-Dún Laoighaire)
Peter Mathews (FG-Dublin S)
Derek Keating (FG-Dublin MW)

[Јas]

Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).

Halligan's victory is one of the coolest things of the night.

Nobody saw that one coming.

Also, is Colm Keaveney (Labour) an actual transfermagnet? More than doubled his tally so far, with more to come, and by now more than 50% likely to nick a seat imho.

And yet might not make it. That could be very close with Broderick.

Another person to mention is Robert Troy (FF-Longford & Westmeath). An FF freshman, beating the FF incumbents to salvage the party a seat. Maybe FF could have done a teeny bit better if they'd run more fresh faces elsewhere?

Maybe, maybe not. Fresh faces elsewhere didn't necessarily work out for them either.

I know Troy's brother. The reception he picked up on the doorsteps was no better than any other FF candidate got - so I imagine they'll be as surprised as anyone by the result.

[Хahar 🤔]

So, then six Trots elected? We have the 5 ULA (Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire, Collins in Dublin SC, Daly in Dublin N, Higgins in Dublin W, Healy in Tipperary S) and Halligan in Waterford.

[Hash]

Anybody care to do a map/list of the decline in FF's vote share by constituency?

[patrick1]

Guaranteed to induce cultural cringe.