A Second Chance - CONCLUSION

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Eugene McCarthy and Mark Hatfield both suprised me-a wave of Liberalism is hitting both parties!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Eugene McCarthy and Mark Hatfield both suprised me-a wave of Liberalism is hitting both parties!

Not necessarily Liberalism. Hatfield is hard to pin down ideologically. I usually refer to him as a "Moderate Libertarian" as opposed to say Paul who is a "Libertarian-Conservative" and Gravel who's a "Liberal Libertarian". His positions are hard to pin down. Pro-life, economically moderate-conservative, enivronmentally either moderate or conservative, foreign policy liberal, and others.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Eugene McCarthy and Mark Hatfield both suprised me-a wave of Liberalism is hitting both parties!

Not necessarily Liberalism. Hatfield is hard to pin down ideologically. I usually refer to him as a "Moderate Libertarian" as opposed to say Paul who is a "Libertarian-Conservative" and Gravel who's a "Liberal Libertarian". His positions are hard to pin down. Pro-life, economically moderate-conservative, enivronmentally either moderate or conservative, foreign policy liberal, and others.

I always felt that Hatfield was on the left of the party, hence the "Liberal" name. I dont mean that he is a Rockefeller Republican.

[Niemeyerite]

Yeees, the election begins =)
I do think Hatfield is a liberal (by republican standards), and I would vote for him over Kennedy. However, if McCarthy beats Bobby Kennedy, I would like to see him winning the GE.

Talking about McCloskey, does he have a chance in this TL? He probably can't improve his percentages, because Hatlfield may be attractive to those potential McClosekey voters...
That's a good republican field. In real live, there has never been a field like this. the GOP will win this election. with a not-so-popular democrat president who'll likely loose nomination, and good candidates like Reagan or Hatfield, the GOP can't loose in 1980 (like in Real Life).

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Yeees, the election begins =)
I do think Hatfield is a liberal (by republican standards), and I would vote for him over Kennedy. However, if McCarthy beats Bobby Kennedy, I would like to see him winning the GE.

Talking about McCloskey, does he have a chance in this TL? He probably can't improve his percentages, because Hatlfield may be attractive to those potential McClosekey voters...
That's a good republican field. In real live, there has never been a field like this. the GOP will win this election. with a not-so-popular democrat president who'll likely loose nomination, and good candidates like Reagan or Hatfield, the GOP can't loose in 1980 (like in Real Life).

Thanks. Yes, this is a Republican field that pretty much has everybody present. The Conservatives, Libertarians, Moderates, Centrists, Liberals, etc. As for McCloskey, he'll either drop out in a couple days, or peak at Hawaii and drop out after extremely depressing returns elsewhere.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

January 21st, 1980, later...

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Tomorrow, the Hawaii Republican caucuses will be held. This is Hatfield's chance to finally drive McCloskey from the race and to weaken Baker's attempts at appealing to moderates and suburbanites. However, the next few races will not be complete coups for Hatfield as races in Wyoming and Arkansas won't be as Hatfield-friendly as he might like. Baker and Reagan will duke it out for Arkansas on February 2nd, and two days after that Hatfield will face a stiff Reagan challenge in Wyoming on February 4th. This is all building towards February 26th, where the key primary state of New Hampshire will take place. Should Hatfield win there, it would make him the dominant candidate and obvious front-runner for the nomination.

For Governor Reagan, who before today was considered the favorite for the nomination, he will need victories in Wyoming, Arkansas, or New Hampshire to salvage his candidacy. However, the Wyoming caucuses will only complete and reveal their results come March 5th, thus making a New Hampshire victory incredibly crucial for Reagan to maintain momentum. The same goes for Baker, who should be banking on Hawaii, Arkansas, and New Hampshire to salvage his candidacy. One thing to helpd Hatfield here today seems to have been the Evangelical turnout which otherwise would have gone for Reagan. With Hatfield's deep religious background and the endorsement of friend and Reverend Billy Graham, this put Hatfield significantly ahead with Evangelicals, which are becoming a bigger slice in the Republican electorate, though not a dominant one as of yet.

Republican caucuses and primaries to take place on or before February 26th

Dark Blue-races which take place in one day
Light Blue-races which take place across multiple days

With likely victories in Hawaii, Maine, and Minnesota, as well as a possibility in Wyoming, Hatfield appears to ahve the advantage. However, following New Hampshire, which itself voted for Hatfield in the 1972 Republican primaries, the primaries will vastly expand as the South, West, and Industrial Mid-West come into play and not every state will be completely receptive to Hatfield.

Democratic caucuses or primaries to take place on or before February 26th

The following races appear to involve less speculation than the Republican ones as McCarthy is expected to do well in Minnesota and Kennedy is expected to do well in New Hampshire with Maine acting as the only toss-up. Should McCarthy capitalize on New England Independence and win Maine, he can expect to appear as a truly great threat to Kennedy. However, should his victories be confined to Maine and Iowa, his candidacy may fall and appear to be only a regional liberal campaign with little chance in primaries outside of the West or Mid-West.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

January 22nd, 1980: The Hawaii Republican Caucuses
     David Brinkley: With the results coming, what we've been talking about for the last few hours now is finally being declared officially true. Senator Mark Hatfield of Oregon has won the Hawaiia Republican caucuses, and by a fairly comfortable margin. Hawaii is a fairly liberal state, and not only is Hatfield one of the more moderate candidates in the field, he is also from the Pacific coast and is over all one of the two big Western candidates in the race, the other being the Conservative Governor Ronald Reagan.

Hatfield-29%
Baker-20%
Reagan-18%
McCloskey-16%
Lindsay-10%
Haig-4%
Rumsfeld-2%
Taft-1%

This was not a very followed race, being shadowed out by the Iowa caucuses the day before and this not being very crucial. Along with that, we were long predicting a Hatfield victory. However, with this, Senator Hatfield is continuing his winning streak started just last night with his narrow victory in the Iowa caucuses. Being a two-time candidate for the nomination with a following that, while in the minority, is very strong, Hatfield is setting himself up rather well to build momentum for New Hampshire and beyond.

After disappointing showings by Taft and Haig in Iowa and Hawaii, despite Haig's alleged support among the military, it is expected that they will drop out. Not only that, but Rumsfeld, Lindsay, and McCloskey all seem to be floundering, despite good showings by Lindsay and McCloskey in Hawaii. It seems to be only a matter of time before one or more of them drop out.

[Niemeyerite]

Lindsay and McCoskly have peaked =) That's help Hatfield!!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

For the record, for those of you that want a fast paced election, this thing is gonna be dragged out.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

In Washington DC on January 22nd, President Kennedy was roused unexpectedly past midnight to hear the shocking news: McCarthy had won in Iowa. It had been declared a little past eleven o'clock and for an hour and a half, the White House staff had debated whether to tell the President, their first instinct being to call Shriver to find out his opinion on it and to see what should be done. "Don't contest it. I'll make that perfectly clear to the boys in Des Moines.", he replied "Bobby's going to have to make the call on this, but advise him that we shouldn't contest it. We'll look desperate and we'll look like whiners. It's important to stay above the fray here, even at this stage."

When the President was awoken, he was not happy. Neither was Ethel, who promptly had the lights turned back off and the door closed after Kennedy left the room. Sitting down in the Oval Office after midnight, there were much brighter moments for the President, such as his response to Three-Mile Island, or winning support for troop withdrawal from Palestine from Congress. However, with Kennedy hunched over, blinking, eyes adjusting to the light and promptly being told that McCarthy, a man who had been rival to both he and his brother, had scraped by with victory in Iowa, this was not one of his brightest moments. Kennedy himself had barely set foot in that state, instead relying on his much more popular Vice-President George McGovern to try to appease the state's doves. He was needless to say angry upon being informed that he had lost. "Hit the bastard hard" are the words reportedly leaving his mouth. "I don't want Gene to win anywhere outside of Minnesota!" was his follow-up. Being a Kennedy, he would have a significant amount of family wealth backing him. However, Democratic coffers had not been so eager in the past to contribute to a President that would not likely win re-election. Therefore, Kennedy would rely much more on surrogates campaigning for him as well as his own personal appearances instead of television ads and the "futuristic" yet expensive campaign he had been hoping for.

Meanwhile, the McCarthy victory rally in Des Moines was underway and a feeling of hope seemed to fill the air. With music playing in the background and the 1960's "hippie" movement seeming to come alive, at least in a political sense, one seeing both sides could easily determine that in the coming months, a battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic party was to be waged.

-Veil: The Presidency of Robert F Kennedy, Bob Woodward, (c) 1988

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

From January 22nd to February 2nd, a period of eight days, Baker and Reagan both dropped a large amount of money into the small Southern state of Arkansas. Polling in New Hampshire was mixed and for all they knew, Hatfield could be on a rampage. Reagan's main argument was that Hatfield would sell the party out to the left while Baker's was that Hatfield would alienate the white working class as well as Democratic centrists who were dis-satisfied with Kennedy. Both say Hatfield, at that point the front-runner, as a threat to their main idea for the Republican party, and in Arkansas, both hoped to receive much needed momentum.


February 2nd, 1980
    David Brinkley: At this time, we are preparing to call the caucus state of Arkansas. Now, this is a state that is being competed for by both Senator Baker and Governor Reagan. Both have appeal in the South, Baker with his roots and Reagan with his Conservatism. Given the apparent trend towards Republicans in the South in recent elections, the Presidential elections of 1972 and 1976, winning Southern states such as this could have a larger significance on the Republican nomination in the future.

With more precincts reporting in, it is shaping up to be a close race between Reagan and Baker with the possibility that Hatfield may in fact come in fourth, depending on the results. However, there is no indication of a Hatfield victory tonight and he is clearly not the Southern candidate in this case.

Later...
    Brinkley: ...And we are now able to call the race for Governor Reagan in a surprise upset. While Baker had the backing of local Republican leaders, even that of Congressman John Hammerschmidt, Reagan's appeal to middle and lower class whites in this rural state and the state's indisputable Conservatism seems to have won the day. Despite the fact that Arkansas' most recently elected Republican Governor, the  re-election of the late Winthrop Rockefeller in 1970, a moderate Republican and brother to Liberal Republican Nelson Rockefeller, Reagan seems to have beaten the trend tonight.

Reagan-30%
Baker-29%
Haig-15%
Hatfield-13%
Taft-9%
Rumsfeld-3%
McCloskey->1%
Lindsay->1%

What we see here is a clear rejection of Hatfield in the South. He has not spent much time in this state and most analysts agree that he already left this state for dead and is riding much more on the Maine caucuses which began yesterday, the Wyoming caucuses, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Among those four states is a lot more of potential for Hatfield than in Arkansas, the Deep South.

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Dark Blue-Reagan

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

bump!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

February 10th, 1980: Maine Democratic Caucuses
    David Brinkley: And we are now projecting a win for the President in the caucus state of Maine. Ordinarily, a state like this would either support President Kennedy's New England roots, or vote for the more liberal candidate. Well, today, those two feelings among Maine Democrats went against each other. It appears, however, that Senator Muskie's endorsement of President Kennedy has given the President a slight edge.

Kennedy-53%
McCarthy-47%

For Kennedy, Maine was a hollow victory. He knew that had he been from anywhere else, the South, the West, even New York, he would have lost to McCarthy. It was due only to his North-Eastern roots that he was able to push back against New England independence that caused it to be such a close race in Maine. With New Hampshrie coming up, a state McCarthy was campaigning much more in, Kennedy was aware that he'd need a lot more than just Massachusetts roots to win, despite the fact Massachusetts bordered New Hampshire. However, Kennedy had the voters on his side as they had always gone for Kennedys in the past, and they were more Conservative than the Western Progressives and youth that had come out strongly in Iowa. Upstate, McCarthy's talk about preservation might win him favor, but the people up there were primarily Conservative and in support of the war, which due to the July withdrawal date was fast beocming a non-issue, despite McCarthy's attempts to bring it to relevance.

-Veil: The Presidency of Robert F Kennedy, Bob Woodward, (c) 1988

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This is really good. Please continue

Thanks. I'm working on the New Hampshire primary, but it'll have to wait til tomorrow to be put up.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Man, if this election is between McCarthy and Hatfield this will be one of the best elections ever.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

February 26th, 1980: The New Hampshire Primary and the Minnesota Caucuses

    Announcer: We interrupt your program to bring you the following Special Report from NBC News...

    David Brinkley: Good evening. Now we have some returns from the Minnesota caucuses. Our projected winner in the Minnesota Democratic caucuses is former Senator McCarthy. This is McCarthy's home state, and he is so far ahead, President Kennedy is so far behind as to be almost invisible.

McCarthy-86%
Kennedy-14%

In the Republican straw vote, Senator Hatfield is leading with over 40% of the vote, and we can safely project him the winner.

Hatfield-41%
Baker-19%
Reagan-16%
Lindsay-13%
Taft-5%
Rumsfeld-3%
McCloskey-2%
Haig->1%

To bring you up to date from New Hampshire, from the returns in New Hampshire, beginning with the Republicans, Reagan is apparently leading. His recent debate with his opponents seems to be putting him over the top in a state that many said would be fought for tooth and nail. Yes, Reagan is the winner with 24%.

Reagan-24%
Hatfield-20%
Baker-17%
Taft-14%
Rumsfeld-12%
Lindsay-10%
Haig-3%
McCloskey->1%

And among the Democrats in New Hampshire, President Kennedy our projected winner, 61% of the vote, to McCarthy's 39.

Kennedy-61%
McCarthy-39%

We'll have a special program on all of these at eleven thirty, ten thirty central, tonight.
    Narrator: This has been a special report from NBC News. We now join our regulary schedule programming, in progress.

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Dark Blue-Reagan

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Ha! I finally surpassed Fluke of the Gods in pages!

Anyway, thanks to tb75 for the video which the New Hampshire coverage is based on.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

February 28th, 1980

McCloskey, Haig Drop Out! Taft, Lindsay, and Rumsfeld to stay in!

Earlier today at separate press conferences, General Alexander Haig of Pennsylvania and Congressman Pete McCloskey of California, two candidates for the Republican nomination, announced that after four straight losses and rather pitiful numbers, that they are dropping out of the race for the Republican nomination. Haig gave his endorsement to Reagan, thus helping Reagan to tie in some of his loose strands among the Conservative movement. Meanwhile, McCloskey endorsed Senator Mark Hatfield as opposed to Reagan, who is the Governor of McCloskey's own state. Hatfield, who has been pushing to the right during the primary campaign, should receive an extra boost among Liberal Republicans.

At the other end of the story are Congressman Donald Rumsfeld, Senator Robert Taft Jr., and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development John Lindsay. None of these three has won a primary or caucus yet in the still very young race. However, all three, when asked, stated that they are willing to press on. Despite this tough talk, rumors are leaking from the campaigns that all three are nearing their last legs. Both Reagan and Hatfield could benefit from Taft dropping out, while Baker and Hatfield would benefit from Lindsay dropping out. Baker and Reagan could both benefit from Rumsfeld dropping out.

The last candidate to not have yet won a primary or caucus is Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker of Tennessee. However, it seems that he has the best chance out of any of these listed of winning a primary in the near future as races in Virginia, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama are approaching and if he can beat out Reagan for Southern support, he is back in the race.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Taft, Lindsay, and Rummy dont have much time in this race....

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Any updates soon?

[Niemeyerite]

Any updates soon?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Any updates soon?

Hopefully. I've got really no idea how to press forward besides just posting primary results.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Well, it's never a good day when one of the main characters of your story dies, and yesterday, Mark Hatfield died. Though not a huge fan, I personally believe he was a good man, a patriot, and a good Christian (cue Kalwejt and others puking). Trust me, Hatfield fans, and Mark Hatfield smiling down from the great big Senate  Chamber in the sky, I have great plans for him in this timeline. Below is his real life resume (this tl's version of him will not be identical):

Mark Hatfield
July 12th, 1922-August 7th, 2011

Member of the Oregon House of Representatives: January 8th, 1951-January 9th, 1955
Member of the Oregon State Senate: January 9th, 1955-January 7th, 1957
16th Oregon Secretary of State: January 7th, 1957-January 12th, 1959
29th Governor of Oregon: January 12th, 1959-January 3rd, 1967
United States Senator from Oregon January 3rd, 1967-January 3rd, 1997

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

March 4th; Massachusetts and Vermont primaries

Republican
Massachusetts

Baker-31%
Hatfield-30%
Lindsay-19%
Reagan-16%
Rumsfeld-3%
Taft-1%

Vermont

Hatfield-34%
Linday-23%
Reagan-15%
Baker-13%
Rumsfeld-10%
Taft-5%

Democrat
Massachusetts

Kennedy-82%
Write-in/Uncommitted-18%

Vermont

McCarthy-54%
Kennedy-46%

In Massachusetts, Baker finally won his first victory in an upset over Hatfield. His centrist position and appeal to suburbanites contributed to his victory, as well as more urban Republicans who didn't like Lindsay and didn't identify with Hatfield's much more Western roots. Reagan surprisingly won only sixteen percent, losing third place to Lindsay who performed well that night in both Vermont and Massachusetts. Despite Hatfield's win in Vermont, Baker would have the only real victory that night given the Vermont primary gave no delegates to the convention and was only a beauty contest. With Baker finally winning a race it seemed that the stage was set for a three-way race going into the rest of the primaries.

As for Kennedy's huge victory in Massachusetts, there was really no way to comment other than the Massachusetts party bosses had not allowed McCarthy on the ballot in Massachusetts and the only reason Kennedy didn't get one hundred percent was due to a write-in effort by McCarthy, resulting in a total of eighteen percent, mostly youths, not going to Kennedy. in the beauty contest state of Vermont, McCarthy would score a surprise victory against the Kennedy camp, once again taking the state from right under the nose of Robert F Kennedy as he had done four year earlier in the 1976 Vermont Democratic Primary. Vermont was old McCarthy territory and McCarthy proved it that night.

-Republicans in Revolution, Bob Woodward, (c) 2003

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker
Dark Blue-Reagan

Democratic Primary Map

Red-Kennedy
Pink-McCarthy

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Donald Rumsfeld was not a happy man. While during the early months of 1979 he had experienced good polling, the entrance of Reagan, a much more liked, experienced, and recognized candidate, Rumsfeld felt he should have known his candidacy was doomed. In the Massachusetts campaign headquarters that night of March fourth, he spoke with his good friend and foreign policy adviser Congressman Dick Cheney of Wyoming. "Y'know what Dick, I'm thinking of calling it quits right here." "Well, have you talked to Joyce?" "Not yet." "Well, she'll be glad. She was hesitant about this from the beginning. You know, soon the summer recess for Congress will be happening. After this Presidential campaign, maybe you should take a break from mit all." "Maybe, Dick." The next morning, the headlines of the political section blared "Rumsfeld Quits! Endorses Reagan!" and the 1980 Rumsfeld for President campaign was over.

Also on March 5th, the results of the Wyoming Republican caucuses were released, giving Senator Hatfield narrow victory over Senator Taft and Governor Reagan.

After his victory in Massachusetts, Baker gained newfound momentum as the primaries headed toward his homeland with South Carolina. Despite recent Republican Presidential victories in South Carolina, a state that had once voted ninety percent Democratic, state politics were still shifted towards Conservative Democrats and thus there wasn't much a Republican party to be found in the state.

Both Baker and Reagan would drop heavy amounts into the state in preparation for March eighth. Hatfield knew his limits and instead chose to opt out of campaigning in the state, making only two notable appearances within the state boundaries. His focus instead was on the Florida primary and Washington caucuses to take place on March eleventh. He didn't need a victory in South Carolina.

-Republicans in Revolution, Bob Woodward, (c) 2003

March 8th, 1980; Republican South Carolina Primary

Reagan-33%
Baker-32%
Taft-19%
Hatfield-15%
Lindsay->1%

Republican Primary Map

Light Blue-Hatfield
Blue-Baker
Dark Blue-Reagan