2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Oh well, candidate lists for our local elections are out since two weeks ago.

The city council is contested by the eleven parties currently represented: CDU, SPD, Greens, Left, FDP, FAG (opponents of airport expansion), FW (not going by their Frankfurt-specific moniker BFF anymore, but still the same people - ie a quite rightwing sort of FW), REP, NPD, ÖkoLinx, EL, plus the Pirates, the PARTEI, the Grey Panthers, another FW-style list headed by CDU-turned-Independent councillor Wolff Holtz, and no fewer than three new migrant-oriented lists: Right to Left: Some outfit called the Muslimic Union, the Turkish-dominated (but more Kemalist, if anything...) BIG which is trying to become sort of a national party after having some successes in the NRW local elections - they also ran in Hamburg but got 0.1% of the vote - And a list called the International Migrant List headed by former Green Landtag candidate, former PDS Bockenheim borough councillor, indefatigable campaigner for a free Kurdistan, Cuma Yagmur. Who'll almost certainly have some votes headed his way from me.

Heck, I have 93 votes and will try to find 31 non-objectionable individuals since you can give no more than three votes per person. And then I'll have to try and get that in line with the total number of votes I want to give to the parties.

All 16 Borough councils are contested by CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP and FW. Left is not contesting three of the four northern councils - and, surprisingly, the one where they are running is not Nieder-Eschbach but Kalbach. Besides, in the 7th it's strictly a joint list with that local Green splinter, "die Farbechten".
EL has a surprising number of lists up: in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th.
Pirates are running in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th.
REPs are running in the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th.
NPD is running in the 5th, 10th and 15th.
Unsurprisingly Ditfurth's list is running in the North End (where it is currently represented), Yagmur's list is running in Bockenheim/Westend, and the 16th other, Bergen-Enkheim-specific FW-style list is also running again (both are currently on the council).
The guy once elected as a Left borough councillor in Nieder-Eschbach (though he was actually a member of the WASG, never the PDS/Left) and who's sat as an indy most of his term is heading a list of some fringe party with a not-too-bad sounding programme called the Democratic Party of Germany, and a formerly Green councillor, also currently sitting as an independent, is actually standing as an independent in the 7th.

[Franzl]

I'm not going to bother with counting my 40 votes or whatever I have. I'll just do the list...

[minionofmidas]

I'm not going to bother with counting my 40 votes or whatever I have. I'll just do the list...

There is no one list that I'd trust with my entire 93 vote budget.

Also forgot to mention that FAG are of course runnin in the 5th.

[minionofmidas]

Constituency count for Hamburg is completed. Citywide preferences count should be completed tomorrow.

There's a fair bit of difference between the city list and constituency results... this is constituency.

CDU   785.091   23,0 %
SPD   1.547.369   45,3 %
GRÜNE/GAL   485.743   14,2 %
DIE LINKE   238.105   7,0 %
FDP   215.037   6,3 %
PIRATEN   70.303   2,1 %

Should make a difference to Stellingen - Eimsbüttel W (SPD 1, CDU 1, Greens 1 instead of SPD 2, CDU 1), Barmbek-Uhlenhorst - Dulsberg (SPD 2, CDU 1, Greens 1, Left 1 instead of SPD 3, CDU 1, Greens 1), Alstertal - Walddörfer (SPD 2, CDU 2, Greens 1 instead of SPD 2, CDU 2, FDP 1), Rahlstedt (SPD 2, CDU 1, Greens 1 instead SPD 2, CDU 1, FDP 1). This is, if I understood election law right. (actually looks it up) Seems to be Ste Lague not Hare, actually. But got it right that I didn't have to first apply any thresholds or whatever. Not going to doublecheck if it makes any difference - will see that when they actually pronounce these people elected.

Also, the CDU's top vote getter in Bergedorf is a man by the unlikely name of Dennis Gladiator.

[Franzl]

I'm not going to bother with counting my 40 votes or whatever I have. I'll just do the list...

There is no one list that I'd trust with my entire 93 vote budget.

Also forgot to mention that FAG are of course runnin in the 5th.

For Kreis Darmstadt-Dieburg, I'll give three votes to one CDU candidate I'm personally friends with......and actually, in addition to that, I'll probably just mark the SPD list for the rest of my votes. I'm really quite satisfied with SPD leadership in our Kreis, believe it or not

In Groß-Umstadt....the same three votes to the same CDU candidate, and other than that.....I dunno. Doesn't really matter

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just started making a set of Hamburg maps; will incorporate Shilly's pretty map of pretty into it so it compares better with the ones done of 2008 and 2009.

It will be the first set to include the Pirate Party. What colour should they get?

[Shilly]

I'd go with orange, fwiw.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, orange sounds right.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Just started making a set of Hamburg maps; will incorporate Shilly's pretty map of pretty into it so it compares better with the ones done of 2008 and 2009.

It will be the first set to include the Pirate Party. What colour should they get?

I think orange is Okay, but the color of the Pirates is black

[minionofmidas]

Point taken. So, greyscale for shaded maps?

[Middle-aged Europe]

[minionofmidas]

Which is why orange sounded familiar. But I think I prefer a darkish greyscale. Purely aesthetic considerations.

[Tender Branson]

Greens are dropping further, nationally and statewide:

New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Germany poll:

36% CDU/CSU
29% SPD
15% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  6% Others

New Berlin state election poll by Forsa:

[Tender Branson]

How likely is it in Ba-Wü that many Green voters could instead vote for the SPD, so that the Greens end up with about 15-20% and the SPD at about 30% ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How likely is it in Ba-Wü that many Green voters could instead vote for the SPD, so that the Greens end up with about 15-20% and the SPD at about 30% ?

Some of the people who have said that they're gonna vote Green so far could flow back to the CDU though.

[Franzl]

A CDU-FDP in B-W. is certainly not entirely out of the question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For cheap laughter, compare with 2008 or with the 2009 Federal Election.

[Tender Branson]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by the Uni Freiburg:

41%    (-3)  CDU
24% (+12)  Greens
23%    (-2)  SPD
  6%    (-5)  FDP
  3%    (nc)  Left
  3%    (-2)  Others

Coalition-tie between SPD-Greens (47%) and CDU-FDP (47%).

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by the Uni Freiburg:

41%    (-3)  CDU
24% (+12)  Greens
23%    (-2)  SPD
  6%    (-5)  FDP
  3%    (nc)  Left
  3%    (-2)  Others

Coalition-tie between SPD-Greens (47%) and CDU-FDP (47%).

And Greens and SPD are also virtually tied, thus making it a three-way race for the office of minister-president as well.

[Tender Branson]

New Baden-Württemberg poll by the Uni Freiburg:

41%    (-3)  CDU
24% (+12)  Greens
23%    (-2)  SPD
  6%    (-5)  FDP
  3%    (nc)  Left
  3%    (-2)  Others

Coalition-tie between SPD-Greens (47%) and CDU-FDP (47%).

And Greens and SPD are also virtually tied, thus making it a three-way race for the office of minister-president as well.

I have an extremely hard time seeing the Greens ahead of the SPD on election night.

I think the Greens way overpoll ...

[Franzl]

OK that's official. I'm predicting black-yellow in B-W

[Insula Dei]

OK that's official. I'm predicting black-yellow in B-W

Appart from the smiley, I'm inclined to agree.

[Franzl]

OK that's official. I'm predicting black-yellow in B-W

Appart from the smiley, I'm inclined to agree.

It'll be our only joy the entire year most likely.

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll, showing the SPD gaining and the Greens losing:

35% (+1.2) CDU/CSU
28% (+5.0) SPD
16% (+5.3) Greens
  9%  (-2.9) Left
  6%  (-8.6) FDP
  6%  (-0.0) Others

[minionofmidas]

Woah. What happened? People looked at Hamburg and took their cue?