2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hamburg has changed its election law again. There's now open lists and five votes per voter for the statewide equalizing seats as well as the 3-5 member constituencies.
According to election.de, while Forschungsgruppe Wahlen asks people expressly how many of the citywide list votes they want to give to which parties, other pollsters active in the city weren't even aware of the law.

Bremen too has introduced open lists and five votes apiece from the next election on, btw (but still only two constituencies with fixed numbers of seats, ie the two cities.)

In that case, it's interesting to note that Forschungsgruppe Wahlen is the only pollster which has polled the Greens above 20% in Hamburg so far.

[Tender Branson]

2 new Hamburg polls by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest dimap:

46.0% SPD
23.0% CDU
14.5% Greens
  6.0% Left
  5.0% FDP
  5.5% Others

45.0% SPD
23.5% CDU
14.0% Greens
  5.5% Left
  5.0% FDP
  7.0% Others

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today's the Berlin referendum on the public disclosure of the state's water privatization treaties.

Potentially pointless though. After the petition had reached the sufficient number of signatures late last year, the state government has already made most of those treaties public. Also, the draft which people are supposed to vote on now could perhaps contain an unconstitutional section (if it turns out that some of the treaties were not made public they're automatically declared null and void).

Greens support the referendum, everyone else is against it, I think (SPD and Left as governing parties anyway).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Correction: Apparently, the petition/referendum is supported by the Green state party, a couple of Left Party district chapters (from West Berlin only, not East Berlin), a single SPD district chapter (Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg), the Pirate party, and the German Communist Party.

[Tender Branson]

4 polls by Emnid today.

Germany

34% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
19% Greens
10% Left
  6% FDP
  6% Others

Baden-Württemberg

40% CDU
25% Greens
19% SPD
  7% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Majority for CDU-FDP.

Hamburg

45% SPD
24% CDU
15% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
  5% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Rheinland-Pfalz

40% SPD
34% CDU
13% Greens
  5% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The state election officer of Berlin estimates a turnout of 28%, this means that the required quorum of 25% will probably be reached. This also means that 90% "yes" votes are necessary for the referendum to pass.

[Middle-aged Europe]

92.4% of votes counted.

Turnout: 26.7%
Yes votes: 98.1%

Unless the turnout drops during the counting of the remaining votes it seems like the referendum has passed.

[Tender Branson]

More polls out today:

Berlin State Elections (Infratest dimap):

28% SPD
23% Greens
23% CDU
16% Left
  3% FDP
  7% Others

Rheinland-Pfalz State Elections (Infratest dimap):

38% SPD
36% CDU
12% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% Left
  5% Others

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

Hamburg State Elections (GMS):

43% SPD
25% CDU
15% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
  6% Others

Hamburg Federal Elections (GMS):

34% SPD
27% CDU
20% Greens
  8% Left
  6% FDP
  5% Others

[Tender Branson]

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

It seems the Austrian Far-Right Virus is spreading to Sachsen-Anhalt:

While in Austria more than 50% of young voters are already voting for Far-Right parties (FPÖ/BZÖ), the new poll from Sachsen-Anhalt indicates that 1/3 of first time voters in the state are now thinking about backing the NPD. Only 4% of 60+ voters say the same.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen-anhalt-heute/8237961.html

[Iannis]

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

It seems the Austrian Far-Right Virus is spreading to Sachsen-Anhalt:

While in Austria more than 50% of young voters are already voting for Far-Right parties (FPÖ/BZÖ), the new poll from Sachsen-Anhalt indicates that 1/3 of first time voters in the state are now thinking about backing the NPD. Only 4% of 60+ voters say the same.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen-anhalt-heute/8237961.html

I really don't think you can compare FPO and BZO to NPD. FPO and BZO have already been at government and there were no racist laws. Especially in Karntern with Haider as governor.

[Franzl]

I agree, the NPD is in a whole other league.

[Tender Branson]

Finally, a new Bremen poll:

38% (+1.3)  SPD
23%  (-2.6)  CDU
22% (+5.5)  Greens
  7%  (-1.4)  Left
  4%  (-2.0)  FDP
  6%  (-0.8 ) Others

[Tender Branson]

Key State Election in Hamburg

Trend-Setting Loss Would Spell Trouble for Merkel

By David Knight

With Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats slumping in the polls ahead of Sunday's state elections in Hamburg, a bad loss would reflect poorly on the German chancellor. A defeat could be the start of an unwelcome trend during a busy election year.

Christoph Ahlhaus is almost certain to go down in history as the shortest-serving mayor Hamburg has ever seen. Only one-fifth of voters in the city-state, which is home to Europe's second-largest port, want to see him remain in charge after Sunday's election. It also appears Ahlhaus will deliver a bitter defeat for Angela Merkel's conservatives in one of seven pivotal state votes that could further erode the chancellor's power at the national level.

Ahlhaus has overseen the late stages of an astonishing collapse in the polls for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) since he took over as mayor in July. The party took 42.6 percent of the vote in 2008, but a poll taken last weekend had the conservatives at a mere 23 percent.

The plunge began following the resignation of the popular Ole von Beust, who had served as mayor and local CDU leader and formed Germany's first government coalition between the conservatives and the Greens at the state level after the 2008 election. Tired of politics, Beust, who is openly gay and served as the embodiment of a modernized conservative party under Chancellor Angela Merkel's leadership, stepped down, triggering massive erosion of support for the party. Lacking a better candidate, the CDU picked Ahlhaus as replacement mayor, a classic conservative who had little of Beust's liberal flair and even less in common with the Greens.

Plagued by Missteps

What had once been hailed as a possible model for a national government coalition between the fast-rising environmentalist Green Party and the Christian Democrats quickly began to implode -- a trend hastened by Merkel's own right-ward shift in Berlin after her party linked up with the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) to form a government in 2009.

Mayor Ahlhaus is adamant that the reason for his party's malaise this year is the failed coalition with the Greens. But political observers in the city also see many failings in the current mayor, who has been plagued by missteps. Ahlhaus often has trouble finding the right words and he has alienated voters with his criticism of the CDU's former coalition partner, the Green Party, which still enjoys considerable popularity in the city. His sometimes gruff style comes across as an affront to many Hamburg residents, with their reputation for cool Hanseatic reserve.

Even the most loyal CDU members believe that Sunday's vote, the first of what is being described as a "super election year," will end in a debacle for the conservatives.

In 2008, the CDU polled just under 43 percent of the vote, taking 56 out of 121 seats and losing the overall majority the party had enjoyed since Beust's election into office in 2001. Crucially, however, their favored coalition partners the FDP -- currently part of a government coalition at the national level with the CDU -- lost all their seats because they just missed out on the 5-percent vote threshold, a rule designed to avoid the confusion of having large numbers of small parties. The only other parties to win seats were the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the Left Party and the Greens. With any kind of deal with the Left Party unthinkable for the CDU, given the national party's ties to the successor to the East German communist party, the conservatives opted to govern together with the Greens.

'The Outlook is Not Good'

The polls suggest a mighty resurgence on Sunday for the SPD, a party that has foundered on the national level since former SPD leader and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder called for new elections and dissolved his government with the Greens in 2005. Following a series of corruption scandals, voters in Hamburg penalized the SPD and sent it into the opposition a decade ago after nearly 50 years of rule. But going into Sunday's election, the party is polling at 46 percent support and mayoral candidate Olaf Scholz and his party are looking forward to a return to power. Scholz's platforms do not differ greatly from those of the more conservative CDU, which is also helping the party to win voters.

They even have a chance to achieve the relatively rare feat of an absolute majority. And, if not, they would be ready to fall into a traditional alliance with the Greens. After the collapse of the Hamburg government in November, SPD national party boss Sigmar Gabriel said: "Red-Green in Hamburg would not only be a good starting shot for 2011, but also the only realistic alternative for the 2013 (national) election." A win in Hamburg would provide additional momentum to the SPD following its recent election win in the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

So what happened to the CDU?

Ahlhaus is refusing to admit defeat ahead of the vote, and he is hoping that a large number of undecided voters will help reverse the SPD's lead. But even he admitted to German broadcaster ZDF that "the outlook is not good." He pinned the blame for his party's crash in the polls on the coalition with the Greens, to whom he claimed the CDU had made too many concessions. "And that is why, since the beginning of the coalition, the CDU's approval has gone steadily down," he said. The CDU had already dropped to 31 percent a year ago -- down from 42.6 percent in the 2008 election.

The coalition partners squared off over several flashpoints: The Green Party's education reforms, which included extending primary education from four to six years, were unpopular with the CDU, which had campaigned in 2008 under the slogan "Save the High Schools." But then-mayor von Beust eventually threw his political weight behind the reforms only to see them easily defeated in a public referendum in 2010. It was a devastating loss which led to von Beust's instant resignation and plunged the coalition into chaos.

story continues

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,746122,00.html

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for tomorrow:

SPD: 44.7%
CDU: 28.3%
GAL: 13.5%
Left: 5.4%
FDP: 4.8%
OTH: 3.3%

Turnout: ~65%

[Hans-im-Glück]

My prediction for tomorrow:

SPD  45%
CDU  25%
GAL  15%
FDP  4.5%
LEFT  5,5%
Other  5%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

Oh great, another state where we gonna throw tax-payers' money at the Nazis soon.

[BenNebbich]

Sachsen-Anhalt State Elections (Infratest dimap):

32% CDU
26% Left
23% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% FDP
  4% NPD
  3% Others

Oh great, another state where we gonna throw tax-payers' money at the Nazis soon.

i fear you are right.

[BenNebbich]

hamburg prediction from BenNebbich:

spd          43%
cdu          28%
gal           15%
fdp             6%
sedlinke  4%
other          4%

[Tender Branson]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

[Tender Branson]

I just did the Hamburg Wahl-O-Mat, even though I´m not really familiar with many of the policies in the city. Here are my results:

Out of 112 possible points I have the most similar positions as

The Greens (78 points)
The Pirate Party (78 points)
The Left Party (74 points)
SPD (72 points)
FDP (71 points)
Freie Wähler (69 points)
CDU (62 points)
NPD (48 points)

http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/hh2011

Here is what the parties stand for:

http://www1.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2011/PositionsvergleichHamburg2011.pdf

[Middle-aged Europe]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

In detail: http://www.wahlrecht.de/landtage/hamburg.htm

Short version: You have five party list votes and five constituency candidate votes. As always, seat allocation is determined by how many list votes a party receives. You may distribute your votes as you see fit (all five party list votes for the same party, or three for one party and two for another, or a vote for five different parties each etc.).

[Tender Branson]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

In detail: http://www.wahlrecht.de/landtage/hamburg.htm

Short version: You have five party list votes and five constituency candidate votes. As always, seat allocation is determined by how many list votes a party receives. You may distribute your votes as you see fit (all five party list votes for the same party, or three for one party and two for another, or a vote for five different parties each etc.).

Hmm, interesting. That means we should have citywide vote results in about 1 week ?

Will we already know how many seats each party will get sometime tonight ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

In detail: http://www.wahlrecht.de/landtage/hamburg.htm

Short version: You have five party list votes and five constituency candidate votes. As always, seat allocation is determined by how many list votes a party receives. You may distribute your votes as you see fit (all five party list votes for the same party, or three for one party and two for another, or a vote for five different parties each etc.).

Hmm, interesting. That means we should have citywide vote results in about 1 week ?

Will we already know how many seats each party will get sometime tonight ?

According to this announcement http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen2011 preliminary official results regarding the seat distribution are expected around midnight today.

[Tender Branson]

Can anybody please explain to me the new Hamburg election law ?

It seems complicated because the first exit polls are out 2 hours after the polls have closed ...

In detail: http://www.wahlrecht.de/landtage/hamburg.htm

Short version: You have five party list votes and five constituency candidate votes. As always, seat allocation is determined by how many list votes a party receives. You may distribute your votes as you see fit (all five party list votes for the same party, or three for one party and two for another, or a vote for five different parties each etc.).

Hmm, interesting. That means we should have citywide vote results in about 1 week ?

Will we already know how many seats each party will get sometime tonight ?

According to this announcement http://www.statistik-nord.de/wahlen2011 preliminary official results regarding the seat distribution are expected around midnight today.

Ah yeah, I thought so that it might take longer to calculate if every voter has 10 votes.

Btw: What will the Exit Poll look like ? Is it a real Exit Poll, where people are asked when they leave the election precincts, or is it an Exit Poll that is already based on counts of several precincts ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout so far is about the same as it was in the previous election:

At 1pm, 38.4% have voted - compared with 38.2% in the previous election.

http://www.hamburg.de/hamburg-wahlen/2653494/zeitplan.html