NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Lunar]

Well the NY-1 has gone into the bizzaro world of how sealed an envelope was.  Some ballots were thrown out because they were improperly sealed, others were counted over the objections by the Altschuler campaign that they were closed with scotch tape rather than licked closed.  Yes, you read that correctly.   Bishop has increased his lead to 264 votes after 120 more ballots were allowed to be counted.

GOP elections commissioner asked for the vote count to be stopped (for reasons currently unknown) and altschuler and the GOP are now in closed door meetings.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-how-sticky-is-sticky-enough-1.2511678?showAll=true

Hah, because, you know, any vote-tampering operation aiming to change/defraud hundreds of absentee votes, wouldn't be able to reseal an envelope in a convincing manner?

[Lunar]

http://www.capitaltonight.com/2010/12/altschuler-concedes-in-ny1/

[cinyc]

Well the NY-1 has gone into the bizzaro world of how sealed an envelope was.  Some ballots were thrown out because they were improperly sealed, others were counted over the objections by the Altschuler campaign that they were closed with scotch tape rather than licked closed.  Yes, you read that correctly.   Bishop has increased his lead to 264 votes after 120 more ballots were allowed to be counted.

GOP elections commissioner asked for the vote count to be stopped (for reasons currently unknown) and altschuler and the GOP are now in closed door meetings.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-how-sticky-is-sticky-enough-1.2511678?showAll=true

Hah, because, you know, any vote-tampering operation aiming to change/defraud hundreds of absentee votes, wouldn't be able to reseal an envelope in a convincing manner?

It's moot now that Altschuler has conceded, but that's actually not as frivolous a challenge as it sounds.  New York law requires:

"After marking the ballot or ballots he shall fold each such ballot and enclose them in the envelope and seal the envelope. He shall then take and subscribe the oath on the envelope, with blanks properly filled in."

If I remember correctly from the last time I cast an absentee ballot, the signature for the oath may be across the seal on the back of the envelope.  So taping over it could be a fraud issue.  But I might be wrong about that, since it's been a while.

[cinyc]

Judge rules against Joe Miller's challenge to write-in votes in Alaska Senate race (Fairbanks Daily News-Miner)

Yes, Miller has until Tuesday appeal to the Alaskan Supreme Court - but I doubt he's going to win there, either.  It's over.

Judicial opinion here, from the Anchorage Daily News website.

[ag]

A very clear judgement. Miller's done.

[Lunar]

Honest question: Why are so many of the close races with Republican Party candidates trailing on the defensive?

For the protracted federal legal battles, it seems that Congressional Republicans in California, Alaska, and New York were disproportionately responsible for the delay.  Maffei and Ortiz kept their causes going a bit longer than necessary, but that was still substantively less days than the former (I believe both Harmer & Vidak conceded after Maffei).  Am I crazy here?

And for governors races, Democrats won all of the close races except Florida & Ohio -- which, of course, doesn't necesarily speak to Republican's weakness, as they had a number of blowouts in Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  And, of course, Emmer, like Miller, were particularly sore-losery in their legal challenges with less than 0.01% of succeeding.

[cinyc]

Honest question: Why are so many of the close races with Republican Party candidates trailing on the defensive?

For the protracted federal legal battles, it seems that Congressional Republicans in California, Alaska, and New York were disproportionately responsible for the delay.  Maffei and Ortiz kept their causes going a bit longer than necessary, but that was still substantively less days than the former (I believe both Harmer & Vidak conceded after Maffei).  Am I crazy here?

And for governors races, Democrats won all of the close races except Florida & Ohio -- which, of course, doesn't necesarily speak to Republican's weakness, as they had a number of blowouts in Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  And, of course, Emmer, like Miller, were particularly sore-losery in their legal challenges with less than 0.01% of succeeding.

The New York votes in contested races were counted very slowly - and statewide, there actually were more close races that dragged on with Republicans leading (NY-25, the Buffalo and LI SDs plus an AD in Westchester that was just finalized in the last day or two) as trailing (NY-01 and the Westchester SD).  And there's still an AD race, I believe in Dutchess, that is outstanding.  Democrats dragged their feet in the races in which they trailed; Republicans in the other.  It's just how it works in politics.

The races were close and things probably took a little bit longer due to it being the first time many counties had used the new voting machines.   There was less to argue over with the old lever machines.

[Lunar]

Fair enough, I think an argument that my perception is all coincidence, especially when taking into account state legislative races, has a lot of sticking power here.  It makes more sense than anything I can come up with

[Torie]

I assume it is clear now Cinyc, that the GOP took control of the NY State Senate. Is that correct?

[Lunar]

I assume it is clear now Cinyc, that the GOP took control of the NY State Senate. Is that correct?

100% correct with 0 room for error.

[rbt48]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

[Lunar]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

[Smash255]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

Based off that its a clear no, and he didn't win much of it either.  The only way he was even competitive with the black vote is if many more whites voted against the GOP in that district than they typically do because of him.

[Torie]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

Based off that its a clear no, and he didn't win much of it either.  The only way he was even competitive with the black vote is if many more whites voted against the GOP in that district than they typically do because of him.

In 2008, Obama of the two party vote got about 40.5% of it in SC-01. So the 10% drop in support from Obama to the Dem who ran against Scott is accounted for by what?

[Lunar]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

Based off that its a clear no, and he didn't win much of it either.  The only way he was even competitive with the black vote is if many more whites voted against the GOP in that district than they typically do because of him.

In 2008, Obama of the two party vote got about 40.5% of it in SC-01. So the 10% drop in support from Obama to the Dem who ran against Scott is accounted for by what?

I dunno if this is what you mean, but local officials in solid districts often overperform their national tide due to lack of funded known opposition that national candidates have.  There's a few CA GOP Congressmen still sitting in districts Obama won.

[Lunar]

I feel like I may have gone off on a tangent with my last post, eh.  Anyway, important to remember that the Democrats almost won SC-01 in 2008, 52%-48%.

[Smash255]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

Based off that its a clear no, and he didn't win much of it either.  The only way he was even competitive with the black vote is if many more whites voted against the GOP in that district than they typically do because of him.

In 2008, Obama of the two party vote got about 40.5% of it in SC-01. So the 10% drop in support from Obama to the Dem who ran against Scott is accounted for by what?

Well I didn't say Scott didn't do better than McCain with the black vote, of course he did, but still not enough to really be competitive.  The 10% drop off is likely a combination of factors, from a slightly larger % of the black vote, to lower black turnout, to lower youth turnout, to more straight party GOP voting.  SC does release precinct level data so looking at how Scott did in the heavily black precincts would probably be the best way to get a general idea.

[Smash255]

Taking a look at some of the Precinct data, this is a handful of the heavily Obama Precincts in Horry County


Coastal Lane 1 Obama 509-63,  Fraiser 308-49
Leon  Obama 471-184    Fraiser 296-158
Port Harrelson Obama 495-19,  Fraiser 357-14
Racepath 2 Obama 668-20,  Fraiser 556-17

[cinyc]

I assume it is clear now Cinyc, that the GOP took control of the NY State Senate. Is that correct?

Yes.  32-30.  The new Buffalo-area Republican is a registered Democrat who ran on the Republican line but will vote for the Republican leadership and likely caucus with the Republicans, though.

The outcome of the outstanding Dutchess/Orange/Ulster Assembly race (AD-100) will determine whether the Republicans have 50 or 51 seats out of the 150 in the Assembly, up from 39 after the 2008 election.  Some sources claim that regardless of the outcome, Democrats lost their veto-proof majority in the Assembly - though I'd have to check whether 100 or 101 votes are needed to override a veto.  In any event, it probably doesn't really matter too much with a Democratic governor, I suppose.   The AD-100 Republican challenger is up by 62 with 118 ballots that a judge is deciding whether to count, most challenged by the Republican. The Democrat lead on election day, but uncounted Ulster County ballots subsequently put the Republican ahead.

[Torie]

Taking a look at some of the Precinct data, this is a handful of the heavily Obama Precincts in Horry County


Coastal Lane 1 Obama 509-63,  Fraiser 308-49
Leon  Obama 471-184    Fraiser 296-158
Port Harrelson Obama 495-19,  Fraiser 357-14
Racepath 2 Obama 668-20,  Fraiser 556-17

Yes, I agree. In North Charleston, in CD-1 Obama got 67%, and Fraiser 60%, with the margin drop generated by a bigger drop in the Dem totals than the GOP totals from 2008.  So while Scott probably got a bit more of the black vote (it is hard to be sure, because I see no precinct where Scott got more votes than McCain in a heavily Obama precinct),  it it is probably more generated by a fall off in black turnout. However, the exit polls for 2008 and 2010 for SC show the black percentage of voters was 25% in both instances, so maybe not.

[nclib]

SC-1 is actually relatively moderate for a white district in the Deep South. Take a look at the gay marriage % in the coastal counties. So there are certainly a sizeable number of whites who would usually vote Democratic in Federal elections. Also, there would certainly be a lower black turnout than in 2008. That all said, Scott likely won more of the black vote than most GOP candidates, but unlikely to be more than 15-20%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I feel like I may have gone off on a tangent with my last post, eh.  Anyway, important to remember that the Democrats almost won SC-01 in 2008, 52%-48%.

Fluke results are important? It's solid Republican district, or ought to be.

[Lunar]

I feel like I may have gone off on a tangent with my last post, eh.  Anyway, important to remember that the Democrats almost won SC-01 in 2008, 52%-48%.

Fluke results are important? It's solid Republican district, or ought to be.

Eh, maybe not "important" for that -- but just important to remember the asymmetries in comparing 2008 presidential to 2010 congressional

[Smash255]

Taking a look at some of the Precinct data, this is a handful of the heavily Obama Precincts in Horry County


Coastal Lane 1 Obama 509-63,  Fraiser 308-49
Leon  Obama 471-184    Fraiser 296-158
Port Harrelson Obama 495-19,  Fraiser 357-14
Racepath 2 Obama 668-20,  Fraiser 556-17

Yes, I agree. In North Charleston, in CD-1 Obama got 67%, and Fraiser 60%, with the margin drop generated by a bigger drop in the Dem totals than the GOP totals from 2008.  So while Scott probably got a bit more of the black vote (it is hard to be sure, because I see no precinct where Scott got more votes than McCain in a heavily Obama precinct),  it it is probably more generated by a fall off in black turnout. However, the exit polls for 2008 and 2010 for SC show the black percentage of voters was 25% in both instances, so maybe not.

Drop off in the youth vote

Those under 40 made up 36% of the vote in 2008, but 25% in 2010.   Those over 50 made up 42% of the vote in 2008, but 52% in 2010.

[Smash255]

The final margin in NY-01 was 593 vote victory for Bishop.   Altschuler spent $5.5 million (probably pushed higher in the absentee count battle) more than $4 million of which was his own $$$.