NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[memphis]

So, what the greatest R+x seat held by a Dem for the next Congress?

UT-02 (R+15)
OK-02 (R+14)
KY-06 (R+9)
WV-3 (R+6)
NC-11 (R+6)
PA-4 (R+6)
PA-17 (R+6)

Yeah, I just noticed that Matheson slightly beats Boren. Incredible.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

So, after being king of Kentucky for today by nailing Rand Paul's numbers (56-44) and the Dem holds there, if I call Dayton by 1, Walz wins and Oberstar loses, do I get to be king of Minnesota for a day?

You're the Co-King of Kentucky, I nailed Paul's numbers as well.

My percentages were way off in the Senate but it looks like I got all the winners correct except for Illinois, and Alaska. I remember the same thing happened in 2008 when I got all of the states right except I flipped Missouri and Indiana but I did poorly on the percentages.

[cinyc]

All right, what's going on with MN-08?  Who is likely to win at this point?

Depends on what's out from St. Louis and Itasca Counties, but Craavack just might pull it out - something I didn't expect when I looked at the race a half hour ago.

Out:
Aitkin - 13 precincts; 50-44 Craavack
Isanti - 6 precincts; 55-39 Craavack
Itasca - 14 precincts; 48-47 Oberstar
Mille Lacs - 1 precinct; 53-40 Craavack
Pine - 18 precincts; 51-44 Craavack
St. Louis - 5 precincts; 58-40 Oberstar
Wadena - 9 precincts; 54-40 Craavack

[Sam Spade]

Looking at CA-20, we have 91% in from Fresno, which Costa is winning 63-37, 77% in from Kern, which Costa is winning 60-40 and only absentees from Kings, which Vidak is winning 71-29.

Contrast that with McNerney's places out, which appear to be much more favorable.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Sadly, it looks like Alaska will remain a GOP hold no matter who wins.

[Јas]

Buck +6,932 (+0.4%) with 73% reporting

But, Denver only 54% reporting and Boulder only 63% reporting.

[cinyc]

Sadly, it looks like Alaska will remain a GOP hold no matter who wins.

If Alaskans know how to spell, it will almost certainly be Murkowski.

[Sbane]

Ok, I am ready to call CA-11 for Mcnerney. It will be damn close, and perhaps a recount will happen, but I think Mcnerney will be on top when it's all said and done. Harmer just didn't get the numbers he needed out of San Joaquin and only won his home county of Contra Costa by 1. As long as Mcnerney wins by about a 14 point margin in Alameda, and holds up well in Santa Clara, he should win.

[cinyc]

Buck +6,932 (+0.4%) with 73% reporting

But, Denver only 54% reporting and Boulder only 63% reporting.

Buck is behind in all PVI bellwether counties, which is never a good sign.  Ditto Rossi in Washington.  I generally trust the bellwethers.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

What a truly horrible night.

Angle loses, while there appear to be enough stupid people in Alaska to write-in that vile piece of garbage Murkowski for another term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elderly incumbents have really struggled, haven't they?

[Sam Spade]

All right, what's going on with MN-08?  Who is likely to win at this point?

Depends on what's out from St. Louis and Itasca Counties, but Craavack just might pull it out - something I didn't expect when I looked at the race a half hour ago.

Out:
Aitkin - 13 precincts; 50-44 Craavack
Isanti - 6 precincts; 55-39 Craavack
Itasca - 14 precincts; 48-47 Oberstar
Mille Lacs - 1 precinct; 53-40 Craavack
Pine - 18 precincts; 51-44 Craavack
St. Louis - 5 precincts; 58-40 Oberstar
Wadena - 9 precincts; 54-40 Craavack

Turns out there were less votes in St. Louis than we thought.  This happens, as I discovered in Franken-Coleman, because a lot of Duluth precincts are completely devoid of voters (maybe until they need them), whereas other precincts are packed with voters.

[Joe Republic]

Elderly incumbents have really struggled, haven't they?

AGE WAVE

[Јas]

WA:
Murray +14,005 (50.5% v 49.5%), with 62% reporting
King County only 55% in.


AK:
Write-ins (Murkowski) +7,242 (39.4% v 35.3%) with 70% reporting

[Sam Spade]

Buck +6,932 (+0.4%) with 73% reporting

But, Denver only 54% reporting and Boulder only 63% reporting.

Buck is behind in all PVI bellwether counties, which is never a good sign.  Ditto Rossi in Washington.  I generally trust the bellwethers.

I tend to agree.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elderly incumbents have really struggled, haven't they?

AGE WAVE

You win the thread.

[cinyc]

Himes is finally leading in CT-04.

Torie - Care to guess the net number of seats Republicans lead in right now?

[Torie]

Looking at CA-20, we have 91% in from Fresno, which Costa is winning 63-37, 77% in from Kern, which Costa is winning 60-40 and only absentees from Kings, which Vidak is winning 71-29.

Contrast that with McNerney's places out, which appear to be much more favorable.

Kings is clearly not all absentees Sam:

Here are the numbers from 2008:

Fresno
Costa
42,840    79%
Lopez 11,405    21%

Kern
Costa 28,301    78%
Lopez 8,183    22%

Kings

Costa  21,882    64%
Lopez 12,530     36%

And 2010 so far:

Fresno
1:46 a.m. EDT, Nov 3, 2010
Costa  10,420    63%
Vidak     5,999  37%
91% of precincts reporting
Kern
Costa 5,874    60%
Vidak 3,890     40%
77% of precincts reporting
Kings
2:18 a.m. EDT, Nov 3, 2010
Vidak 10,893     71%
Costa 4,506    29%
0% of precincts reporting

They are all absentees I suspect. In any event, the precincts reporting are BS.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey and Corbett got killed in Philly (though ran strong/barely lost or barely won in the Republican areas of the city) but the margins elsewhere where so incredible that it didn't matter. Republican turnout in Bucks alone was sensational. Our numbers in Chester were great, too. Amazing. What a night.

A Republican Governor, U.S. Senator, five more members of our House delegation (with a few very close losses), keeping our 30-20 hold on the State Senate and taking back the State House with at least a twelve seat net gain while knocking off the Majority Leader. Pennsylvania kicked ass tonight.

[memphis]

AP declares Hanabusa winner

[Torie]

Himes is finally leading in CT-04.

Torie - Care to guess the net number of seats Republicans lead in right now?

I am overwhelmed. So no.   Any seat that you want me to look at?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Sam's Staten Island theory didn't seem to hold

I'm shocked, frankly.

Me too, McMahon seemed so strong with local support

Yes, quite an upset that Grimm beat McMahon...meanwhile Paladino lost Staten Island by 17 points.

Shame they couldn't have gotten someone less horrible than Grimm to occupy that seat for who-knows-how-long.

[cinyc]

Himes is finally leading in CT-04.

Torie - Care to guess the net number of seats Republicans lead in right now?

I am overwhelmed. So no.   Any seat that you want me to look at?

The question was rhetorical.

64.

[SvenssonRS]

And there goes Minnick. Took NYT long enough to call it.

[Torie]

Ok, I am ready to call CA-11 for Mcnerney. It will be damn close, and perhaps a recount will happen, but I think Mcnerney will be on top when it's all said and done. Harmer just didn't get the numbers he needed out of San Joaquin and only won his home county of Contra Costa by 1. As long as Mcnerney wins by about a 14 point margin in Alameda, and holds up well in Santa Clara, he should win.

I suspect the GOP will get zip out of CA. But the redistricting commission now controls CD redistricting, so the GOP will not be totally wiped out come 2012, although I suspect they will still lose a couple of seats. CA given the national GOP is now a Dem bastion, and a reliable one. In some ways, almost as reliable as NY, if not more so in some ways.