PREDICTIONS THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Smash255]

I will go somewhat against the grain and predict the Dems to hold the House (albeit barely)

House,  GOP pick up both vacant seats, 41 Dem held seats, Dems pick up 5 GOP held seats.

Net Gain +38 for GOP.  219-216  Dems

Senate GOP picks up 6 seats, AR,IN, IL ND, NV, WI.

Still feel Sestak will be able to pull it off, Bennet will barely hold off Buck

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK House. GOP gains:

AZ-01
AR-01
AR-02
CA-20
CO-03
CO-04
CT-05
FL-08
FL-24
GA-08
IL-11
IL-14
IL-17
IN-08
IN-09
KS-03
LA-03
MI-01
MS-01
NV-03
NH-02
NJ-03
NM-02
NY-20
NY-29
ND-AL
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18
OR-05
PA-03
PA-08
PA-11
SC-05
SD-AL
TN-06
TN-08
TX-17
VA-02
VA-05
WA-03
WI-07
WI-08

Dem gains:

DE-AL
HI-01
IL-10
LA-02

GOP +40

[Eraserhead]

Wow, you're quite optimistic.

[Tender Branson]

What are you projecting for turnout (%)?

I have calculated slightly different results, using VAP (Voting Age Population):



The turnout numbers in each year are the Presidential totals and the Mid-Term numbers are the totals for the House of Representatives elections.

This is the source for the figures:

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo

http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/c2kprof00-us.pdf

http://www.census.gov/popest/national/asrh/NC-EST2009/NC-EST2009-02.xls

As you can see, Mid-Term elections always have about 2/3 of the turnout from the previous Presidential election.

Therefore I predict about 88.4 Mio. votes for this year in the House of Representatives, which would be 37.5% turnout among the VAP (people aged 18+).

Which would be about 41% turnout among the VEP (Voting Eligible Population).

[bgwah]

Here is my Senate map:



I haven't followed out of state elections super closely. My gut tells me one of CO/NV/IL will be held by the Democrats, but I'm not sure which, so I will put them all as R for now.

As for Washington, wave elections are weird so I'm not very confident regarding my prediction, but if I had to guess I would say Murray will win by 1-2ish.

I've known WA-3 would fall to the Republicans as soon Baird announced his retirement, even before MA and the signs of the impending wave. I certainly haven't changed my opinion on that.

I think Larsen will be re-elected in WA-2, as well as Smith in WA-9.

I think Reichert will win in WA-8. There is some potential that his victory will be pathetically small considering the wave (at least compared to his performances in 2006 and 2008), but this just isn't the year where this kind of seat will flip...

As for the House as a whole, the Republicans will win it, but I haven't paid close enough attention to come up with a specific number. I will just randomly guess 58 for fun, though.

[useful idiot]

Senate

Alaska: Miller (R)
Arkansas: Boozman (R)*
California: Boxer (D)
Colorado: Buck (R)*
Connecticut: Blumenthal (D)
Delaware: Coons (D)
Florida: Rubio (R)
Illinois: Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Coats (R)*
Kentucky: Paul (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)
Missouri: Blunt (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Ayotte (R)
New York: Gilibrand (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R)*
Ohio: Portman (R)
Oregon: Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R)*
Washington: Murray (D)
West Virginia: Manchin (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R)*

Democrats (+Sanders and Lieberman) 53, Republicans 47

As for the House, I'm guessing the Republicans will gain about 50-60 seats, but that's all it is: a guess.

[Lief 🗽]

This seems to be about the standard prediction, and the polls seem to support it (though Washington is truly a toss-up; I think the other "toss-up" races tilt slightly one way or another). Let's do some exact margins though!

New Hampshire: R 55%, D 44%
Vermont: D 65%, R 33%
Connecticut: D 54%, R 45%
New York: D 64%, R 33%
New York (S): D 58%, R 39%
Pennsylvania: R 52%, D 48%
Delaware: D 58%, R 40%
Maryland: D 63%, R 36%
West Virginia: D 51%, R 47%
Ohio: R 58%, D 41%
Kentucky: R 56%, D 44%
Indiana: R 58%, D 40%
Illinois: R 48%, D 47%, G 4%
Wisconsin: R 53%, D 46%
Iowa: R 61%, D 38%
Missouri: R 54%, D 44%
Arkansas: R 59%, D 38%
Louisiana: R 57%, D 42%
Alabama: R 65%, D 35%
Georgia: R 58%, D 40%
Florida: R 47%, I 31%, D 21%
South Carolina: R 62%, D 24%, G 13%
North Carolina: R 54%, D 44%
North Dakota: R 70%, D 29%
South Dakota: R 100%
Kansas: R 66%, D 32%
Oklahoma: R 68%, D 31%
Colorado: R 49%, D 48%
Utah: R 62%, D 37%
Idaho: R 68%, D 29%
Arizona: R 57%, D 41%
Nevada: R 49%, D 46%
California: D 50%, R 45%
Oregon: D 58%, R 41%
Washington: D 50.3%, R 49.7%
Alaska: R 38%, D 31%, I 30%
Hawaii: D 66%, R 32%

[Oakvale]

As you can see, I'm going out on a limb on a couple of states - Nevada, Colorado and Illinois, especially.

As for the House, I honestly have no idea. I'll go with the boring, consensus option of around 50 seats gain for the GOP.

[angus]

Iowa - the senile guy who looks like a sex offender will win by miles.

He just got my vote about 30 minutes ago. 

And if you think he looks frail and antiquated, you should have seen the people working the polling place!

[ucscgaldamez]

Here are my prediction for the most contentious senate races


Alaska:  Miller (R) 33, McAdams (D) 30, Murkowski (I) 34
California:  Boxer (D) 52, Fiorina (R) 45
Colorado*:  Buck (R) 50, Bennet (D) 48
Connecticut*:  Blumenthal (D) 55, McMahon (R) 44
Delaware* (Kaufman): Coons (D) 57, O’Donnell (R) 42
Florida*:  Rubio (R) 47, Crist (I) 30, Meek (D) 20
Illinois*:  Kirk (R) 49, Giannoulias (D) 46
Kentucky*:  Paul (R) 54, Conway (D) 45
Nevada:  Angle (R) 48.6, Reid (D) 48.8
Pennsylvania:  Toomey (R) 52, Sestak (D) 47
Washington: Rossi (R) 50, Murray (D) 49
West Virginia*: Manchin 53, Raese 46
Wisconsin:  Johnson (R) 54, Feingold (D) 45

[Oakvale]

Here are my prediction for the most contentious senate races


Alaska:  Miller (R) 33, McAdams (D) 30, Murkowski (I) 34
California:  Boxer (D) 52, Fiorina (R) 45
Colorado*:  Buck (R) 50, Bennet (D) 48
Connecticut*:  Blumenthal (D) 55, McMahon (R) 44
Delaware* (Kaufman): Coons (D) 57, O’Donnell (R) 42
Florida*:  Rubio (R) 47, Crist (I) 30, Meek (D) 20
Illinois*:  Kirk (R) 49, Giannoulias (D) 46
Kentucky*:  Paul (R) 54, Conway (D) 45
Nevada:  Angle (R) 48.6, Reid (D) 48.8
Pennsylvania:  Toomey (R) 52, Sestak (D) 47
Washington: Rossi (R) 50, Murray (D) 49
West Virginia*: Manchin 53, Raese 46
Wisconsin:  Johnson (R) 54, Feingold (D) 45

There's really no way you can call Delaware a toss-up.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Senate:

Alaska: Murkowski (I)*
Arkansas: Boozman (R)*
California: Boxer (D)
Colorado: Bennett (D)
Delaware: Coons (D)
Florida: Rubio (R)
Illinois: Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Coats (R)*
Kentucky: Paul (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)
Missouri: Blunt (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Ayotte (R)
New York: Gilibrand (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R)*
Ohio: Portman (R)
Oregon: Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R)*
Washington: Murray (D)
West Virginia: Manchin (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R)*

[Antonio the Sixth]

My final prediction, based on 538.com :



Confidence map :




I really hope Nate is wrong here, but unfortunately I know he's pretty trustworthy.

[angus]

I suspect this will either be a blowout or surprisingly - disturbingly - close.

I always respected your decisiveness.

Well, we know that she has at least one confirmed vote.  Here's the "I voted" pic from today:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now the Mid West. The region where control of the House has traditionally been decided...

The Crucial State of Ohio* - one thing that becomes very clear when looking at early vote stats for WV is that Republicans are very motivated in Ohio Valley this year. Which means that OH-6 is downgraded to Lord Knows and OH-18 (yeah, it isn't actually... but the area is somewhat similar) to Tight R. Elsewhere no less than three districts are Gone; OH-1, OH-15 and OH-16. OH-13 and (regrettably) OH-10 must be considered as Possible Upsets. It is possible that we may see an absolute bloodbath in Ohio tonight.

Indiana - the Bloody Eighth is gone, obviously. IN-9 is tight R and I feel like slotting both IN-1 and IN-7 as possible upsets, if only because voters in Indiana can act very strangely sometimes. IN-2 is *not* safe, despite not being included until this edit. Obviously, it's a Lord Knows district... and maybe a very important one, if you buy into the idea that places like each other swing like each other, irrespective of region.

Michigan - MI-1 is marginal R (I would like to be wrong on that), MI-7 is tight R, and the Lord may know about MN-9 but I do not. I will say that MI-12 and MI-15 are possible upsets, if only because of the general atmosphere of woe in Michigan, but both are probably a little safer than most in that category.

Wisconsin - for WI-7 see MI-1. And I would give the same mark to WI-8. And I do wonder about WI-3; I think I'll say marginal D though.

Minnesota - I think marginal DFL seems best for both MN-1 and MN-8, on balance. Reasons exist for alarm, but structural factors and the DFL seemingly holding up unusually well mean both ought to hold. Ought. MN-7 I wonder about as well... hmm... you see if there's trouble in the Dakota's... hmm... well, I suppose possible upset fits best. It might not even be slightly close, but, as I said, I do wonder.

Iowa - I think IA-1 shall be a possible upset and IA-3 marginal D (recruitment fail, republicans). Maybe the Lord knows about IA-2, but I don't think I do.

Illinois - IL-11 is gone. I'll call IL-17 and IL-14 both as tight R and default to Him upstairs over IL-8 (that seat in these circumstances?) and IL-10.

Misery - MO-3 and MO-5 are both possible upsets. MO-4... hmm... I may be wrong, but I'll go with tight R. Skelton is an old man now; not good in years like this one.

*copyright all media 2004-onwards

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I suspect this will either be a blowout or surprisingly - disturbingly - close.

I always respected your decisiveness.

Well, we know that she has at least one confirmed vote.  Here's the "I voted" pic from today:

she usually looks like she's been punched above both eyes, but in that pic she looks GREAT!

[Sam Spade]

You missed IN-2, Al.

[angus]

Iowa - I think IA-1 shall be a possible upset

We can hope.  

I voted for Lange, but I suspect Brayley is a safe D.  Lange is weak in debate, and the buzz among the few Republicans I know is that he's inexperienced.  None of them have a raging hard-on for him, even though they don't much care for Brayley.  I saw that there was a Libertarian and a socialist on the ballot for that office, as well as a write-in space.  Five choices in all.  I think Brayley is safe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You missed IN-2, Al.

That's because it's safe.

Somehow it slipped my mind. Will edit now

[angus]

Iowa - I think IA-1 shall be a possible upset

We can hope.  

Local paper says 6700 voters in my county have voted by 10AM, which is below average for the past two midterm general elections.  Note that Black Hawk is the most populous county in IA-1.  I think low turnout usually bodes well for republicans.  Who knows?  Anyway polls don't close till 9PM.

Also, Ben Lange is touring the district with Grassley today.  Best line of the day came from Brayley's campaign manager who criticized Lange for talking about Brayley's TARP vote while touring the district with Grassley, even though Grassley voted for that bill.  She said "If Ben was an honest person, he would express the same outrage at Senator Grassley's TARP vote that he has at Bruce Braley's."

I would have said, "Lange is the hatchet-faced, toothless, illegitimate son of a Nutmeg salesman who has neither the sensibility of a man nor the gentleness of a woman, and who is trying to marry one his daughters to one of the Prussian King's sons.  Do we really want Iowa ruled by royalty?  If Lange is elected, be prepared to see your female's chastity violated, blood flowing in the village streets, and your children writhing upon pikes."

[Barnes]

I suspect this will either be a blowout or surprisingly - disturbingly - close.

I always respected your decisiveness.

Well, we know that she has at least one confirmed vote.  Here's the "I voted" pic from today:

Is that her spellbook in her left hand?

[GMantis]

My final prediction:


Confidence map:


I was the least certain about Washington, though I think the Democrats have been under counted in this race.

I predict a GOP gain of between 55 and 60 in the house, with the upper bound more likely to be exceeded.

[Joe Republic]

This thread will be locked just before the first results threads open (and reopened after election day), so hurry up and get your predictions in!

[Hash]

Close call on AK, IL, WA and maybe CO and NV

[Iosif]

R +46 in the House
R +8 in the Senate

Bet your foreclosed houses on it.