PREDICTIONS THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With Colorado - there was a huge gender gap in the exit polling (over 30 pts) - just something you're alluding to.

I'd not checked that, but it doesn't come as a shock.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With Colorado - there was a huge gender gap in the exit polling (over 30 pts) - just something you're alluding to.

I'd not checked that, but it doesn't come as a shock.

I guess Bucks did well with rapists?

[Lunar]

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Yeah, Democrats picked the wrong candidate. Look at the county map. Not that he would have won either. Still, Paul may well be vulnerable in six years time; so far at least the bottom hasn't fallen out of the KY Democratic Party.

Well, if Rand is the folk hero he's made out to be, he will have a KY GOP challenger too.  Yeah, we'll see about that

[Sam Spade]

With Colorado - there was a huge gender gap in the exit polling (over 30 pts) - just something you're alluding to.

I'd not checked that, but it doesn't come as a shock.

I guess Bucks did well with rapists?

54% of Colorado males are rapists?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Crucial State of Ohio* - one thing that becomes very clear when looking at early vote stats for WV is that Republicans are very motivated in Ohio Valley this year. Which means that OH-6 is downgraded to Lord Knows and OH-18 (yeah, it isn't actually... but the area is somewhat similar) to Tight R. Elsewhere no less than three districts are Gone; OH-1, OH-15 and OH-16. OH-13 and (regrettably) OH-10 must be considered as Possible Upsets. It is possible that we may see an absolute bloodbath in Ohio tonight.

Five seats out of ten lost. Absolute bloodbath it was, then. My Ohio Valley observation was right; Wilson was beaten soundly and Space thrashed. The three districts called as hopeless certainly were; the margin in OH-15 was especially stunning. Calling OH-13 and OH-10 as possible problems but no more was about right also.

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Massive margin for the appropriately named Bushcon in the Bloody Eighth. IN-9 was not tight-R; the correct call would have been marginal R and a retrospective case for 'gone' exists. I think I was fooled by his easy win in 2008. Donnelly hanging on in IN-2 was impressive given the general picture.

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The specific predictions were accurate enough, I guess. But I called the wrong places as potential upsets; Levin and Dingell were both fine (solid margins for both, despite Dingell's public complaints. Cunning old bastard), but Kildee won by less than 10pts. And for quite a while it looked worse than that.

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Yeah, that'll do.

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Yeah, so Oberstar ended up doing sufficiently badly in DFL strongholds to make those structural factors irrelevant. Sadly. But, as noted endlessly elsewhere, elderly incumbents did badly this year. That, and, well it turns out that the DFL was not holding up all that well at all. Given that, Walz did well to cling on. No problems for Peterson.

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All close (IA-1 surprisingly so), all held. Republicans would have taken IA-3 with a better candidate.

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I think this is about right. Not that downstate was hard to predict, but I'm happy that I predicted serious trouble for Bean and for the right reasons.

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Was right to make that call wrt Skelton (he actually did a tad worse than I'd reckoned) and MO-5. Did not think that MO-3 would be anything like that close.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walz had surges of strength in some kind of weird areas. He underran Obama's 2008 numbers in most of the district and he didn't overrun him that much in his stronghold of my old home. Some parts of the district had huge swings against him, but that was undone by the aforementioned surges in surprising areas.

Check out the county results sometime Al, I think you'll be intrigued.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To elaborate, areas that have lots of independent voters that swung greatly toward Obama and the Democrats the last couple years appeared to have an equal swing against Walz. However areas that are traditionally Republican including the last few years that took on a personal liking to Walz in spite of that mostly stuck with him.

Neither one of those is really weird in and of itself, but seeing both happen so widespread is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Virginia - I feel very unsure about both VA-9 and VA-11 so both are in the realm that only the Lord does Know. I half suspect that VA-11 may be more vulnerable than VA-9, but that's not based on much more than an experimental theory. VA-5 is close to being gone, but as Perriello defeated Goode I can't quite bring myself to predict accordingly, so it's only at marginal R.

That experimental theory proved to be very helpful in many states (PA for example), but it didn't work in Virginia. Perriello did very well; interesting as he was a very modern incumbent, while Boucher was a very traditional one. I overlooked VA-2 because I forgot it even had a Democratic rep; so gone it was.

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The gerrymander worked very effectively. The only defeated incumbent was Etheridge; Kissell in particular did well. Redistricting is going to be very cruel to them though...

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Spratt, splat, alas. Wilson did badly, but was never in trouble; that sort of behavior does not play well, does it? As a certain Florida rep could tell you.

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Bishop was gone, defeated. But then he demonstrated that the normal laws of elections do not apply to him, no matter how much mud sticks. Marshall did pretty well considering everything but never stood a chance, Barrow won comfortably.

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Florida saw some especially grim defeats for Democratic incumbents; Klein lost by 8, Boyd lost by 12, Kosmos by 19 and Grayson by 18. So, yeah. They were close to those obviously elusive gains than hanging onto certain incumbents. The only margin that wasn't substantially more than I'd presumed was in FL-2. Elsewhere...

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AL-5 was lost by 16pts; bad but actually better than certain other districts won in 2008. Bright's defeat was narrow too. Of course the important stuff in Alabama happened downballot.

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Unlike Alabama, the collapse found its way through to House races. Childers was beaten heavily and Taylor lost as well. The significance of the latter has been noted elsewhere.

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Mostly alright, but the depth of the sh!t Davis landed in was something I got wrong. He lost by 19pts, which is just extraordinary.

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Yeah, all of that is fine. AR-1 result intriguing; as mentioned elsewhere.

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lolno; Cao was as badly beaten as he should have been.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Texas - the music finally stops for Chet Edwards; TX-17 is a gone. Elsewhere in Texas, only the Lord ever knows about TX-23 (also, I can never remember if that's the Texas district I have close relatives in, or whether it's another one in that general area) and I think I'm going to go out on a slight limb and say that TX-27 is but tight D. TX-25 is a possible upset. Other than that, all looks to be very safe.

There's a scene in The Singing Detective in which the music is stopped when a member of the banned is gunned down. That's basically when happened to Edwards. TX-23 fell, as did TX-27 (probably) justifying going out on a slight limb; though I suppose it would have looked better to go further. Doggett was held to under 53%.

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Comfortable hold in the end.

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Yes. Yes... that's one way of putting it.

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Yeah.

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CO-7 was a bit better than that, but broadly speaking about right.

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That'll do.

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Got AZ-8 narrowly wrong, but the rest was alright. I nearly typed AZ-5 as gone and sort of wish I had done so.

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Yes. This may well be his last term, either way.

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Right party, wrong margin. I'll call that as an error, despite the first part.

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Was right not to call him as holding, did not expect that margin.

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Yeah, that's fine. I did alright with Washington this year.

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But not Oregon. OR-5 was one of my worst errors; damn you SUSA! Was right to not think of OR-4 as unsinkable, though.

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CA-11 was wrong (either way), correct to throw hands in air wrt to CA-20, and the rest... yeah, alright. Did not spot CA-2, but I don't think anyone else did either.

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We all know who won in the end.

[Oakvale]

As you can see, I'm going out on a limb on a couple of states - Nevada, Colorado and Illinois, especially.

Hmm, I'm fairly pleased with this. Obviously, I got Illinois wrong, but it was close enough that I'm not embarassed. I also feel kind of smug about Nevada.

This is all assuming that Murkowski wins in Alaska, which seems to be likely.

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Meh, lowballed it a little but not too bad.

[Tender Branson]

I got 2 states wrong in my Senate prediction and 2 in the Governor prediction.

I thought Angle would win in NV and that McAdams would be much stronger somehow.

Didn't happen.

The 2 I got wrong on the Governor side are IL and FL, but these were really close races.

I also predicted R+67 in the House, which is also not far off.

Therefore I´m happy with my predictions.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Senate:

Alaska: Murkowski (I)*
Arkansas: Boozman (R)*
California: Boxer (D)
Colorado: Bennett (D)
Delaware: Coons (D)
Florida: Rubio (R)
Illinois: Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Coats (R)*
Kentucky: Paul (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)
Missouri: Blunt (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Ayotte (R)
New York: Gilibrand (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R)*
Ohio: Portman (R)
Oregon: Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R)*
Washington: Murray (D)
West Virginia: Manchin (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R)*

I was 100% right. Suck it.

[Niemeyerite]

Senate:

Alaska: Murkowski (I)*
Arkansas: Boozman (R)*
California: Boxer (D)
Colorado: Bennett (D)
Delaware: Coons (D)
Florida: Rubio (R)
Illinois: Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Coats (R)*
Kentucky: Paul (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)
Missouri: Blunt (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Ayotte (R)
New York: Gilibrand (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R)*
Ohio: Portman (R)
Oregon: Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R)*
Washington: Murray (D)
West Virginia: Manchin (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R)*

I was 100% right. Suck it.

Congratulations =).

[Eraserhead]

Senate:

Alaska: Murkowski (I)*
Arkansas: Boozman (R)*
California: Boxer (D)
Colorado: Bennett (D)
Delaware: Coons (D)
Florida: Rubio (R)
Illinois: Kirk (R)*
Indiana: Coats (R)*
Kentucky: Paul (R)
Louisiana: Vitter (R)
Missouri: Blunt (R)
North Carolina: Burr (R)
Nevada: Reid (D)
New Hampshire: Ayotte (R)
New York: Gilibrand (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R)*
Ohio: Portman (R)
Oregon: Wyden (D)
Pennsylvania: Toomey (R)*
Washington: Murray (D)
West Virginia: Manchin (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R)*

I was 100% right. Suck it.

Damn. Very nice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll probably get around 83.8%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Got every Senate race correct except for Nevada.

[Keystone Phil]

In terms of total pickups projected, I was off by one in the Senate and (it's looking like) one in the House.

[Torie]

In terms of total pickups projected, I was off by one in the Senate and (it's looking like) one in the House.

I, as your compared to your 1-1, was O-3. Guess which body I got the "0" in? 

[Keystone Phil]

In terms of total pickups projected, I was off by one in the Senate and (it's looking like) one in the House.

I, as your compared to your 1-1, was O-3. Guess which body I got the "0" in? 

The House (which would be more impressive)?

[Torie]

In terms of total pickups projected, I was off by one in the Senate and (it's looking like) one in the House.

I, as your compared to your 1-1, was O-3. Guess which body I got the "0" in? 

The House (which would be more impressive)?

Yes, that is my opinion anyway. Actually, I just got lucky. Predicting the House was extremely difficult this time.

[Sam Spade]

In terms of total pickups projected, I was off by one in the Senate and (it's looking like) one in the House.

I, as your compared to your 1-1, was O-3. Guess which body I got the "0" in? 

The House (which would be more impressive)?

Yes, that is my opinion anyway. Actually, I just got lucky. Predicting the House was extremely difficult this time.

Yep.  As usual, my predictions were so-so. 

However, I was actually quite impressed with the actual House ratings I gave.  They were close to being dead-on accurate, as demonstrated by cinyc's map on election night.

I intend on using my formula again for figuring things out come 2012, since it really showed its worth this time around.

[Torie]

Just for the fun of it, I looked at my list I posted in late October, with the results. First, I double counted two GOP gain seats (that is where the question marks are), so my prediction was really 61 seats, not 63 seats. So I counted as GOP, 8 seats that went Dem, and as Dem, 10 seats that went GOP.  The errors were mostly generated by being off a bit on relative regional strength (GOP lagging in CT, OR, and really lagging in CA and NC, and GOP stronger in NY, MI, NH and OH).

   TN   6   13   R   1   1
   LA   3   12   R   1   2
   IN   8   8   R   2   3
   FL   2   6   R   2   4
   AR   2   5   R   2   5
   NY   29   5   R   2   6
   MS   1   14   R   3   7
   GA   8   10   R   3   8
   AR   1   8   R   3   9
   CO   4   6   R   3   10
   TN   8   6   R   3   11
   PA   3   3   R   3   12
   FL   8   2   R   3   13
   TX   17   20   R   4   14
   ND   1   13   R   4   15
   SC   5   7   R   4   16
   CO   3   5   R   4   17
   VA   5   5   R   4   18
   FL   24   4   R   4   19
   OH   16   4   R   4   20
   KS   3   3   R   4   21
   OH   1   1   D   4   22
   OH   15   1   D   4   23
   MS   4   20   R   5   24
   AL   2   13   R   5   25
   TN   4   13   R   5   26
   ND   AL   10   R   5   27
   SD   AL   9   R   5   28
   PA   10   8   R   5   29
   OH   18   7   R   5   30
   IN   9   6   R   5   31
   AZ   5   5   R   5   32
   VA   2   5   R   5   33
   TX   23   4   R   5   34
   MI   1   3   R   5   35
   NY   20   2   R   5   36
D   CA   11   1   R   5   37
   IL   11   1   R   5   38
   IL   14   1   R   5   39
   NJ   3   1   R   5   40
   WA   3   0   D   5   41
   NH   1   0   D   5   42
   FL   22   1   D   5   43
   GA   2   1   D   5   44
   NV   3   2   D   5   45
   IL   17   3   D   5   46
   WI   7   3   D   5   47
D   CA   20   5   D   5   48
   NC   2   2   R   5   49
   VA   9   11   R   5.4   50
   NM   2   5   R   5.4   51
D   NC   7   5   R   5.4   52
D   AZ   8   4   R   5.4   53
   NY   19   3   R   5.4   54
D   IN   2   2   R   5.4   55
?   NC   2   2   R   5.4   56
   WI   8   2   R   5.4   57
D   NC   8   2   R   5.4   58
   NY   23   1   R   5.4   59
D   OR   5   1   D   5.4   60
D   CT   5   2   D   5.4   61
   PA   8   2   D   5.4   62
   PA   7   3   D   5.4   63
   PA   11   4   D   5.4   64
?   NM   2   6   D   5.4   65
   WV   1   9   R   5.5   66
   NC   11   6   R   5.5   67
R   ID   1   18   R   5.6   68
R   MO   4   14   R   5.6   69
R   NY   13   4   R   5.6   70
R   MI   7   2   R   5.6   71
R   NY   24   2   R   5.6   72
R   OH   6   2   R   5.6   73
   NY   1   0   D   5.6   74
   MI   9   2   D   5.6   75
   VA   11   2   D   5.6   76
R   MN   8   3   D   5.6   77
R   NH   2   3   D   5.6   78
   CO   7   4   D   5.6   79
   CT   4   5   D   5.6   80
   MA   10   5   D   5.6   81
   WA   9   5   D   5.6   82
   AZ   7   6   D   5.6   83
   ME   1   8   D   5.6   84
   KY   6   9   R   6   85
   PA   4   6   R   6   86
R   TX   27   2   R   6   87
   MN   1   1   R   6   88
   PA   12   1   R   6   89
   IA   3   1   D   6   90
   KY   3   2   D   6   91
   OR   4   2   D   6   92
   IL   12   3   D   6   93
   ME   2   3   D   6   94
R   NY   25   3   D   6   95
   WA   2   3   D   6   96
   CA   18   4   D   6   97
   CA   47   4   D   6   98
   WI   3   4   D   6   99
   IA   1   5   D   6   100
   NJ   12   5   D   6   101
   MO   3   7   D   6   102
   NM   3   7   D   6   103
   RI   1   13   D   6   104

[rbt48]

Just for the fun of it, I looked at my list I posted in late October, with the results. First, I double counted two GOP gain seats (that is where the question marks are), so my prediction was really 61 seats, not 63 seats. So I counted as GOP, 8 seats that went Dem, and as Dem, 10 seats that went GOP.  The errors were mostly generated by being off a bit on relative regional strength (GOP lagging in CT, OR, and really lagging in CA and NC, and GOP stronger in NY, MI, NH and OH).

   TN   6   13   R   1   1
   LA   3   12   R   1   2
   IN   8   8   R   2   3
   FL   2   6   R   2   4
   AR   2   5   R   2   5
   NY   29   5   R   2   6
   MS   1   14   R   3   7
   GA   8   10   R   3   8
   AR   1   8   R   3   9
   CO   4   6   R   3   10
   TN   8   6   R   3   11
   PA   3   3   R   3   12
   FL   8   2   R   3   13
   TX   17   20   R   4   14
   ND   1   13   R   4   15
   SC   5   7   R   4   16
   CO   3   5   R   4   17
   VA   5   5   R   4   18
   FL   24   4   R   4   19
   OH   16   4   R   4   20
   KS   3   3   R   4   21
   OH   1   1   D   4   22
   OH   15   1   D   4   23
   MS   4   20   R   5   24
   AL   2   13   R   5   25
   TN   4   13   R   5   26
   ND   AL   10   R   5   27
   SD   AL   9   R   5   28
   PA   10   8   R   5   29
   OH   18   7   R   5   30
   IN   9   6   R   5   31
   AZ   5   5   R   5   32
   VA   2   5   R   5   33
   TX   23   4   R   5   34
   MI   1   3   R   5   35
   NY   20   2   R   5   36
D   CA   11   1   R   5   37
   IL   11   1   R   5   38
   IL   14   1   R   5   39
   NJ   3   1   R   5   40
   WA   3   0   D   5   41
   NH   1   0   D   5   42
   FL   22   1   D   5   43
   GA   2   1   D   5   44
   NV   3   2   D   5   45
   IL   17   3   D   5   46
   WI   7   3   D   5   47
D   CA   20   5   D   5   48
   NC   2   2   R   5   49
   VA   9   11   R   5.4   50
   NM   2   5   R   5.4   51
D   NC   7   5   R   5.4   52
D   AZ   8   4   R   5.4   53
   NY   19   3   R   5.4   54
D   IN   2   2   R   5.4   55
?   NC   2   2   R   5.4   56
   WI   8   2   R   5.4   57
D   NC   8   2   R   5.4   58
   NY   23   1   R   5.4   59
D   OR   5   1   D   5.4   60
D   CT   5   2   D   5.4   61
   PA   8   2   D   5.4   62
   PA   7   3   D   5.4   63
   PA   11   4   D   5.4   64
?   NM   2   6   D   5.4   65
   WV   1   9   R   5.5   66
   NC   11   6   R   5.5   67
R   ID   1   18   R   5.6   68
R   MO   4   14   R   5.6   69
R   NY   13   4   R   5.6   70
R   MI   7   2   R   5.6   71
R   NY   24   2   R   5.6   72
R   OH   6   2   R   5.6   73
   NY   1   0   D   5.6   74
   MI   9   2   D   5.6   75
   VA   11   2   D   5.6   76
R   MN   8   3   D   5.6   77
R   NH   2   3   D   5.6   78
   CO   7   4   D   5.6   79
   CT   4   5   D   5.6   80
   MA   10   5   D   5.6   81
   WA   9   5   D   5.6   82
   AZ   7   6   D   5.6   83
   ME   1   8   D   5.6   84
   KY   6   9   R   6   85
   PA   4   6   R   6   86
R   TX   27   2   R   6   87
   MN   1   1   R   6   88
   PA   12   1   R   6   89
   IA   3   1   D   6   90
   KY   3   2   D   6   91
   OR   4   2   D   6   92
   IL   12   3   D   6   93
   ME   2   3   D   6   94
R   NY   25   3   D   6   95
   WA   2   3   D   6   96
   CA   18   4   D   6   97
   CA   47   4   D   6   98
   WI   3   4   D   6   99
   IA   1   5   D   6   100
   NJ   12   5   D   6   101
   MO   3   7   D   6   102
   NM   3   7   D   6   103
   RI   1   13   D   6   104

OK, I'm a bit dense.  Please help with the table headings.  Obviously, the first column is state, the second is CD#.  Many thanks.

[Torie]

Sorry about that.

State;  CD #;   PVI;   Call (mine, with 5.4 tilt GOP, 5.5 dead tossup, and 5.6 tilt Dem; 5 is lean GOP, 6 is lean Dem);   Running seat count number

[Sam Spade]

unstickied