PREDICTIONS THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Sbane]

SENATE:

Solidly Democratic
DE, HI, MD, NY, NY (S), OR, VT

Lean Democratic
CA, CT

Toss-up; Tilt Democratic
WV, WA

Toss-up; Tilt Republican
CO, NV, IL

Lean Republican
KY, WI, PA

Solidly Republican
AL, AR, AZ, FL, IA, ID, IN, KS, LA, NC, ND, NH, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT, MO

Toss-up;Tilt Independent
AK

House- I won't try to list them all but I have a feeling 55 is the floor right now. The roof....it's pretty damn high, let's just put it at that. That being said losses should be around 60-65 with a decent chance of it being extended to about 70-75, since there are just so many close races. If Gallup is right about GOP+15, look out for up to 80-90 seats being lost and maybe even more. If  IN-2, KY-3 and 6 fall early on election night we might be looking at just such a scenario.

[Keystone Phil]

U.S. House - GOP pickup of 62 seats.

For the ever-so-important PA races, I'm going to say...

Mike Kelly (PA 3) by ten (or slightly more), Jason Altmire (PA 4) by ten (or slightly more), Jim Gerlach (PA 6) by four, Pat Meehan (PA 7) by four, Mike Fitzpatrick (PA 8 ) by two, Carney (PA 10) by two, Barletta (PA 11) by six, Critz (PA 12) by six and Dent (PA 15) by eight.


U.S. Senate - GOP pickup of 7 seats (North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Colorado)

Pennsylvania - Toomey - 53%      Sestak - 47%

[Niemeyerite]

Alaska:

Joe Miller 34% Scott McAdams 32% Lisa Murkowski 31% Others 3% (my heart says mcadams wins)

Hawaii:

Dan Inouye 62% Cam Cavasso 35% Other 3%

California:

Barbara Boxer 52% Carly Fiorina 46% Others 2%

Oregon:

Ron Wyden 59% Jim Huffman 38% Others 3%

Washington:

Dino Rossi 50% Patty Murray 49% Others 1% (I still think Murray could win)

Nevada:

Harry Reid 48% Sharron Angle 47% Others 5%

Idaho:

Mike Crapo 69% Tom sullivan 30% Others 1%

Utah:

Mike Lee 56% Sam Granato 42 % Others 2%

Arizona:

John McCain 57% Rodney Glassman 42% Others 1%

Colorado:

Michael Bennet 50% Ken Buck 49% Others 1%

North Dakota:

John Hoeven 68% Tracy Potter 31% Others 1%

South Dakota:

John Thune 98% Tom Daschle (write-in) 2%

Kansas:

Jerry Moran 65% Lisa Johnston 33% Others 2%

Oklahoma:

Tom Coburn 66% Jim Rogers 33% Others 1%

Iowa:

Chuck Grasley 59% Roxanne Conlin 40% Others 1%

Missouri:

Roy Blunt 52% Robin Carnahan 46% Others 2%

Arkansas:

John Boozman 54% Blanche Lincoln 44% Others 1%

Louisiana:

David Vitter 53% Charlie Melancon 45% Others 2%

Wisconsin:

Ron Johnson 52% Russ Feingold 48% Others <1%

Illinois:

Mark Kirk 48% Alexi Giannoulias 48% Others 4% (I really can't say who wins. probably kirk by 1 vote xD)

Indiana:

Dan Coats 52% Brad Ellsworth 44% Others 4%

Ohio:

Rob Portman 55% Lee Fisher 43% Others 2%

West Virginia:

Joe Manchin 54% John Raese 45% Others 1%

Kentucky:

Rand Paul 53% Jack Conway 47% Others <1%

TO BE CONTINUED...

[Niemeyerite]

North Carolina:

Richard Burr 53% Elaine Marshall 44% Others 3%

South Carolina:

Jim Demint 63% Alvin Greene 22% Others 15%

Georgia:

Johnny Isakson 58% Mike Thurmond 40% Others 2%

Alabama:

Richard Shelby 64% William Barnes 35% Others 1%

Florida:

Marco Rubio 45% Charlie Crist 35% Kendrick Meek 19% Others 1%

Maryland:

Barbara Mikulski 63% Eric Wargotz 36% Others 1%

Delaware:

Chris Coons 58% Christine O'Donnell 42% Others <1%

Pennsylvania:

Pat Toomey 51% Joe Sestak 48% Others 1%

New York:

Chuck Schumer 66% Jay Townsend 30% Others 4%

New York (S):

Kirsten Gillibrand 60% Joe DioGuardi 39% Others 1%

Vermont:

Patrick Leahy 67% Len Britton 33% Others <1%

New Hampshire:

Kelly Ayotte 54% Paul Hodes 45% Others 1%

Connecticut:

Richard Blumenthal 55% Linda McMahon 45% Others <1%

[Tender Branson]

Probably my final Senate Prediction (incl. Turnout and Generic Senate Ballot):



I also predict a net 67 seat gain for the Republicans in the House.

I'll do Governors later.

[Torie]

Very nice chart. You don't believe the polls in CO eh, and are unimpressed with the rather impressive GOP registration margin of early voters to boot, it appears, while hewing to them pretty much in the balance of the races (with Washington understandably a mess as to what is happening).  Just an observation.

[Tender Branson]

I have really no clue what's going on in Colorado, there could also be a recount.

Here are my final predictions for the Governor races:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2010/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2583

My gut tells me that Malloy and Sink will slightly win and Strickland won't.

[Torie]

Sink isn't going to win. Sorry. Yes, I know, the recent polls and all, but no. The base turnout differential in Florida is just too high, and their turnout models are wrong. That is my take, which of course might be wrong itself.

[Tender Branson]

LOL.

Just saw that I would be one of only 4 persons to predict a McAdams win with 30%+

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Senate -
the 10 closest races:

WA: 51 - 49
AK:  36 - 33 - 28
WV:  51 - 48
IL:   49 - 46
CO:  51 - 48
NV:  49 - 45
CA:  51 - 47
PA:  52 - 47
WI:  52 - 47
CT:  52 - 46

[Joe Republic]

Pick-ups are marked with asterisks.

The DC square represents the NY Special in this map.

[Joe Republic]

And the House:

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Using Joe Republic's formatting:

I think that works out to R+66 at the moment. I can't believe I'm predicting that high.

[Sbane]

Sink isn't going to win. Sorry. Yes, I know, the recent polls and all, but no. The base turnout differential in Florida is just too high, and their turnout models are wrong. That is my take, which of course might be wrong itself.

Apparently the Democrats are waiting to vote just in case Meek or Crist drop out. Sounds like spin though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

And the House:

Djou loses, but Cao wins?

[Joe Republic]

Djou loses, but Cao wins?

Cao loses, and the GOP picks up LA-3.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Djou loses, but Cao wins?

Cao loses, and the GOP picks up LA-3.

Sorry, I've already started thinking of seats like LA-3, KS-3, and PA-3 as Republican seats (I forgot LA-3 hasn't gone Republican yet)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let's see if I can finish this in time. Note that I'm not bothering to list districts that appear to be utterly safe. I expect to be wrong far more than I am right.

Maine: ME-1 tight, ME-2 marginal. I would have had both a category up this time last week.

New Hampshire: NH-1 is gone and I'll file NH-2 under 'Lord Knows'.

Massachusetts: MA-4, MA-5 and MA-6 are all possible upsets. The Lord does not know MA-10.

Rhode Island: RI-1 is a possible upset

Connecticut: CT-4 LK, CT-5 R Tight

New York: surprisingly, I'm placing NY-1 into the Lord Knows category; I don't feel comfortable about that one for some reason. NY-13 is marginal D, while NY-4 is a possible upset. Both NY-19 and NY-20 are tight R. After 2008 I'd expected Arcuri to be dead, but he seems in a better position than some; but because of 2008 I shall say that only the Lord do know. The same judgment for NY-23, I think. NY-25 is marginal D, while NY-29 is, as I am sure you will all be shocked to hear, gone.

New Jersey: NJ-3 is marginal R (I may be wrong, but voters usually don't react well to that sort of crap), NJ-6 and NJ-12 are both possible upsets.

Delawhere: marginal D, obvs.

Pennsylvania: PA-7 and PA-8 are both knocking on a grim door, but are just outside; marginal R for the pair. PA-13 and PA-17 are possible upsets, as are PA-6 and PA-15 on the other side. Oddly... I think Lord Knows for both PA-10 and PA-11. I would be surprised if more than one is held and not surprised if both were lost, but it's a funny part of the world. PA-3 is gone. PA-4 is marginal D and PA-12 tight D.

West Virginia: WV-3 is a possible upset, and I think that 'Lord Knows' is a truer statement of WV-1 than almost any other district. The range of possible results there is unusually wide. One thing I do know, is that Mollohan would have lost the seat for sure. The worst type of incumbent in conditions such as these.

More later, hopefully. If some of the above predictions look strange, it's because I made them with the aid of a dartboard and a crooked stick (beech, I think. Found it in a brook and turned it into a walking stick. Very good piece of wood).

[Keystone Phil]

PA-13 and PA-17 are possible upsets

[Eraserhead]

I don't think I'm gonna go as in-depth here as I did with the gubernatorial predictions due to two factors: laziness and homework.

Senate

GOP +8 (PA, IN, IL, WI, AR, ND, CO & NV)

Democrats hold the chamber.

Notable Senate races:

NH: Ayotte (R) +12

NY: Schumer (D) +33

NY2: Gillibrand (D) +17

PA: Toomey (R) +4

DE: Coons (D) +14

WV: Chin-man (DINO) +4

OH: Portman (R) +16

KY: Paul (Objectivist) +8

SC: Greene (D) +52 (Don't count that one toward my total though.)

FL: Rubio (R) +13

AR: Boozehound (R) +16

MO: Blunt (Anti-Prohibition) +8

WI: Johnson (R) +6

IL: Kirk (R) +1

CO: Buck (R) +2

NV: Angle (R) +4

CA: Boxer (D) +6

OR: Wyden (D) +17

WA: Murray (D) +0.6

AK: Miller, maybe? I have no clue on the margin.

House

GOP +50 sounds about right. I guess it'd be more surprising if it was less than that than it would be if it was more though.

Republicans take over the chamber.

I'll predict my House race and the one next to me.

NY-20

Gibson 53% (GOP PICKUP)
Murphy 47%

NY-19

Hayworth 51% (GOP PICKUP)
Hall 49%

Preparing for bummers on both fronts so if either of them survives I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Oddly enough, I think Hall is definitely more likely to survive despite not fitting his district very well at all
ideologically. They wouldn't have sent Clinton in there for him if they didn't think he had a good shot.

[Vepres]

I have really no clue what's going on in Colorado, there could also be a recount.

I doubt it. Buck has rebounded a bit after he stopped making headlines about his social issues positions. In fact, while it won't be a comfortable win, it won't be close enough for a recount.

[tmthforu94]

Senate

I feel pretty comfortable with this map, but still think Alaska, Washington, and West Virginia could change. All other states I feel reasonably confident on.

US House
Republicans pick up 55-60 seats.

IN-02:
Jackie Walorski: 50% (GOP PICKUP)
Joe Donnelly: 49%

IN-08:
Larry Buchson: 55% (GOP PICKUP)
Trent Van Haaften: 44%

IN-09:
Todd Young: 51% (GOP PICKUP)
Baron Hill: 48%

Indiana Assembly
House:
Republicans: 59 (+11)
Democrats: 41 (-11)

Senate:
Republicans: 36 (+3)
Democrats: 14 (-3)

[cinyc]

Probably my final Senate Prediction (incl. Turnout and Generic Senate Ballot):



I also predict a net 67 seat gain for the Republicans in the House.

I'll do Governors later.

What are you projecting for turnout (%)?

[Barnes]

Democrats: 52 (Including Sanders and Lieberman)
Republicans: 48 (Including Murkowski)

US House:
Republican pickups of between 35-60 seats.

[Penelope]

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 48
Independents: 3

Alaska really is anyone's game at this point.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2010/pred.php?action=indpred&id=4482