Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money

[Sam Spade]

Is this the first time the national Republicans have thrown money at CA-11?

Nah, they've been throwing a lot at it.

[Sam Spade]

Don't have time tonight to post the numbers tonight but DCCC put serious ad money into
PA-7 and IA-1 reported today.

[Sam Spade]

Following up on yesterday.  IA-01 is only for media production, but that normally becomes ad buys.  PA-07 is an ad buy.

DCCC
AR-01: 12K
CO-03: 6.8K
HI-01: 13K
IA-01: 14K
IL-14: 1.5K
NC-08: 11K
NH-02: 10K
NM-01: 14K
NV-03: 14K
PA-07: 248K

NRCC
ND-AL: 19K
VA-09: 18K
TN-04: 18K

[Tender Branson]

NRSC Drops $3 Million in California, Boxer $4 Million

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is dropping a massive $3 million TV ad buy in California this week, a sure sign that Republicans believe they have a good shot at knocking off Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

The new spending brings the NRSC’s Golden State commitment to nearly $8 million, all in support of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's (R) campaign.

The ad buy comes a day after a public poll shows Boxer inching ahead. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll showed Boxer opening up an 8-point lead -- 50 percent to 42 percent. That number tracks with private Democratic surveys that show Boxer ahead.

Republicans are pushing back on that poll, however, saying their internal numbers show the race much tighter. Republicans are conducting two tracking polls in California, and committee sources say both showed Fiorina only 1 point down at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the Republican polls show Boxer mired in the mid-40s, a dangerous position for any incumbent.

Not to be outdone, the Boxer campaign is launching an even larger $4 million ad buy this week, according to campaign sources. The buy should virtually blanket the state's airwaves.

"We are on the air in 10 media markets, including Spanish-language stations," said Rose Kapolczynski, Boxer's campaign manager.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/nrsc-drops-3-million-for-carly-fiorina-in-california-20101025

[Torie]

The GOP's search for that 10th seat, is going to cost them a lot, and the odds are high that the money will be wasted. As to California, I have this suspicion that some voters just think California is too big to fail, and thus will be bailed out by the Feds. That was a more realistic hope before it became quite obvious that the House next year will not be a party to this little scheme. As to Washington, enough voters think that they are too smart to suffer much (the Seattle metro area has the highest educational levels in the nation going away), no matter what happens, and thus can remain pure to The Dream - because they think they can afford it.

[SPQR]

The GOP's search for that 10th seat, is going to cost them a lot, and the odds are high that the money will be wasted. As to California, I have this suspicion that some voters just think California is too big to fail, and thus will be bailed out by the Feds. That was a more realistic hope before it became quite obvious that the House next year will not be a party to this little scheme. As to Washington, enough voters think that they are too smart to suffer much (the Seattle metro area has the highest educational levels in the nation going away), no matter what happens, and thus can remain pure to The Dream - because they think they can afford it.

Ever considered the idea that the GOP is not the answer to the problem?

[Sam Spade]

Don't have time to post everything tonight - but pay attention to the buys made today, if you have a chance to read them through.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SSP has a handy chart of the DCCC's $21.5 million outlay:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/7865/dccc-drops-215m-on-66-districts

[Torie]

Don't have time to post everything tonight - but pay attention to the buys made today, if you have a chance to read them through.

Is there a convenient link that puts up all of this info on a daily basis?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

DCCC puts $568,953 for Chet Edwards in TX-17.

That surprises me.

[Sam Spade]

DCCC puts $568,953 for Chet Edwards in TX-17.

That surprises me.

Over $1 million in VA-11 was what interested me also.

Also, more money in IA-01, IA-02, AZ-07, CA-20, CO-07.  And nearly 500K in MI-09.  Also 275K in CT-05.

[Sam Spade]

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/indexp/1

[Meeker]

Three-quarters of a million into FL-25 is encouraging.

[Sam Spade]

NRCC is throwing money as follows (over the past two days)...

CA-SEN: 2.77 mill
CO-SEN: 1.13 mill
IL-SEN: 1.19 mill
KY-SEN: 413K
NV-SEN: 350K
PA-SEN: 2.04 mill
WA-SEN: 684K
WV-SEN: 1.06 mill

[SPQR]

Great job,Sestak.
Keeping the money away from more vulnerable states like WA...

[Sbane]

Great job,Sestak.
Keeping the money away from more vulnerable states like WA...

Same can be said for Bennett. They might not win in the end, but they may have helped divert enough resources to save WA or perhaps CA.

[Sam Spade]

DSCC thinks similarly...

CO-SEN: 1.17 mill
CT-SEN: 450K
IL-SEN: 1.25 mill
KY-SEN: 300K
NV-SEN: 1.07 mill
PA-SEN: 2.08 mill
WA-SEN: 1.01 mill
WV-SEN: 1.08 mill

[Eraserhead]

Why is the GOP wasting all of that money in California? Just a Hail Mary in hopes of getting control of the Senate?

[Sbane]

I say let them spend it. Hopefully Buck or Rossi won't be in the Senate because of it.

[Badger]

Interesting that both sides apparently don't believe Paul has KY sewn up yet.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting that both sides apparently don't believe Paul has KY sewn up yet.

The ad buys in KY are quite small compared to other states.

Meanwhile, are Republicans serious about California? I mean, really?

[Sbane]

Interesting that both sides apparently don't believe Paul has KY sewn up yet.

The ad buys in KY are quite small compared to other states.

Meanwhile, are Republicans serious about California? I mean, really?

So the Republicans spent almost 3 million in California and only 684k in Washington. If Boxer wins by 2-3 points and Murray just squeezes by......

[cinyc]

Interesting that both sides apparently don't believe Paul has KY sewn up yet.

The ad buys in KY are quite small compared to other states.

Meanwhile, are Republicans serious about California? I mean, really?

So the Republicans spent almost 3 million in California and only 684k in Washington. If Boxer wins by 2-3 points and Murray just squeezes by......

Think about return on investment.  Many Washington state voters have already voted, since all vote is by mail.  Most Californians haven't voted yet.  Plus, California is a bigger state with many more large, expensive media markets than Washington.

[Sbane]

Interesting that both sides apparently don't believe Paul has KY sewn up yet.

The ad buys in KY are quite small compared to other states.

Meanwhile, are Republicans serious about California? I mean, really?

So the Republicans spent almost 3 million in California and only 684k in Washington. If Boxer wins by 2-3 points and Murray just squeezes by......

Think about return on investment.  Many Washington state voters have already voted, since all vote is by mail.  Most Californians haven't voted yet.  Plus, California is a bigger state with many more large, expensive media markets than Washington.

I realize California is a bigger market, so obviously any investment here has to be larger. That being said about 29% of Californians (according to SurveyUsa which was in the field a few days ago) have also filled out their ballot, as compared to about half in Washington. I do believe in Washington your ballot has to postmarked by Nov 2nd. In California it has to reach by Nov. 2nd or it doesn't count, so most vote by mail voters are probably mailing it in by today I would think. (about half of total voters)

The other question is did Fiorina ever have a chance in California? I believe the answer to that is no. She was receiving a dead cat bounce and the national party seems to have bought it. Washington was always the bigger opportunity. If they don't think they could have changed many more minds with a greater than 684k, then the California buy is worth it. Otherwise those resources could have been better used in Washington, or even Colorado for that matter.

[Vepres]

The California may indeed be a hail mary thing for Fiorina, but I think they are looking down ballot and hoping that if they keep the Senate race close, they hold CA-03, and pick-up CA-11 and (possibly) CA-18, CA-20 and CA-47.