Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43537.html

Good article here of broad interest.  One note buried in the article - NRCC is going to start advertising in TN-4 against Lincoln Davis this week.

[Torie]

How many blue dogs are going to be left I wonder. Well, at least Holden (PA something) is safe - supposedly.

[Sam Spade]

Big Notes on Senate adbuys (rounding numbers for simplicity):

DSCC
CO-SEN:  860K
CT-SEN:  580K
DE-SEN:  170K
IL-SEN:  870K
KY-SEN:  305K
MO-SEN:  140K
WA-SEN:  730K
WV-SEN:  780K
PA-SEN:  730K

NRCC
KY-SEN:  215K
PA-SEN:  630K
WA-SEN:  1.04 Million

[Sam Spade]

10/14 - House Adbuys

NRCC
AR-01 - $18K
OR-05 - $26K
PA-11 - $35K (includes survey)
SD-AL - $17K

More later today, probably...

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43606.html

Basically, DCCC is withdrawing its ad reservations for Kagen (WI-08).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Excellent. Kagen was an embarrassment.

[Brittain33]

Excellent. Kagen was an embarrassment.

Unions just dropped $750k in this one district, and Kagen is a self-funder.

He has a competitive race and may lose, but this is not a sign that he is gone like Driehaus.

[Sam Spade]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/nrsc_upping_ant.php

NRSC says it will spend $3.4 million in PA before election day from its original $1.7 million.

Also buried in the article is that the NRSC is planning on upping its spending to $3 million in CA, something I was not aware of (or of the original amount planned).

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/nrsc_upping_ant.php

NRSC says it will spend $3.4 million in PA before election day from its original $1.7 million.

Also buried in the article is that the NRSC is planning on upping its spending to $3 million in CA, something I was not aware of (or of the original amount planned).

They better, the unions are now full scale attacking the Tea Party (which we have none to speak of here) as a way to attack the other pubs.......and it's an effective ad.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Excellent. Kagen was an embarrassment.

Unions just dropped $750k in this one district, and Kagen is a self-funder.

He has a competitive race and may lose, but this is not a sign that he is gone like Driehaus.

If Kagen wins, then Dems have held the house.

[Sam Spade]

My suspicion for the past couple of weeks is that Kagen is one of the 20 Dem dead duck seats that the GOP has mentioned, and which I suspect exist (in numbers somewhere close to that).

[Sam Spade]

10/14 - House Adbuys

NRCC
AR-01 - $18K
OR-05 - $26K
PA-11 - $35K (includes survey)
SD-AL - $17K

More later today, probably...

DCCC
AR-01 = $300K
GA-02 - $130K
HI-01 - $12K (just production of a new ad)
MI-07 - $11K (just production of a new ad)
MS-01 - $215K
NM-02 - $170K
NC-07 - $75K (first ad buy I've seen for DCCC here, NRCC has been here a while)
NC-08 - $65K
OH-13 - $65K (not particularly big buy - thought he gave up)
OH-16 - $285K
OH-18 - $370K
PA-03 - $45K (thought they left here, not particularly big buy anyways)
SC-05 - $250K

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Supposedly, the GOP has made (but is not yet confirming) a $500,000 commitment to MA-10. This is from the Boston Phoenix which ... well, it's not exactly the best source of news for this stuff. But it's something.

[Sam Spade]

Supposedly, the GOP has made (but is not yet confirming) a $500,000 commitment to MA-10. This is from the Boston Phoenix which ... well, it's not exactly the best source of news for this stuff. But it's something.

Both parties have been spending a lot there, so I'm not surprised.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The same article, FWIW, also said that internal polling had Perry leading.

[Brittain33]

The same article, FWIW, also said that internal polling had Perry leading.

Like Sestak's internal polling?

[cinyc]

The same article, FWIW, also said that internal polling had Perry leading.

Like Sestak's internal polling?

"Republicans say that polling shows Perry ahead of Keating, and well-positioned for victory; even many Democratic insiders are pessimistic, and unimpressed with Keating's campaign thus far."

Not much info there.  It makes you wish Massachusetts had a law like New York, which requires candidates to release internals if they tease them.

[Brittain33]

"Republicans say that polling shows Perry ahead of Keating, and well-positioned for victory; even many Democratic insiders are pessimistic, and unimpressed with Keating's campaign thus far."

Well, that is depressing. I don't see much redeeming value in Perry. Scott Brown I dislike on many levels, but Perry is tawdry. Diploma mills?

[Lief 🗽]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/10/national_democrats_not_giving.html

Kind of ironic that the DCCC is giving up on people like Halvorson, who was basically safe up until a month ago, but Perriello, Kravotil and Nye, the candidates who were supposed to be endangered since December of 2009, are still apparently in the race.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/10/national_democrats_not_giving.html

Kind of ironic that the DCCC is giving up on people like Halvorson, who was basically safe up until a month ago, but Perriello, Kravotil and Nye, the candidates who were supposed to be endangered since December of 2009, are still apparently in the race.

That may be a testament to the relative strength of the candidates. Halvorson sailed in thanks to an incompetent Republican candidate (a replacement after the original dropped out) and Obama coattails. Perriello, Kratovil, and (to a lesser extent) Nye all had to fight tooth and nail to win. So while the latter group have known they'll be in for a fight since they got elected, Halvorson may have just assumed she'd slide into a second term with no problem, so she's gotten caught flat-footed by Kinzinger.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not sure Halvorson was "basically safe up until a month ago," but it shouldn't be a surprise that the Democrats most expecting a hard, brutal re-election race are the best prepared and most likely to win one.

[Sam Spade]

I'm not sure Halvorson was "basically safe up until a month ago," but it shouldn't be a surprise that the Democrats most expecting a hard, brutal re-election race are the best prepared and most likely to win one.

Not from the polls I saw - even after primary day there were serious signs of weakness which just kept mushrooming...

[Sam Spade]

DCCC is doing some more media production in WV and CT, presumably for some ad buys in the future.

[cinyc]

This article gives a good overview of what it actually costs to advertise in an expensive media market like New York:

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=137760

Linda McMahon dropped $50,000 for one ad during the Giants' season opener on Fox.  Other prime time ads have been running in the tens of thousands of dollars - despite politicians getting cheaper rates than general advertisers.  Even ads during the late local news can cost up to $7,800 a piece.

Obviously, ad buys are much less expensive in smaller markets and on cable (Hallmark was offering ads during the Martha Stewart Show for $200 a piece).   But it's something to keep in mind when we see the size of these ad buys - $1,000,000 may not go very far if advertising in a place like New York City.

[Sam Spade]

Notes from yesterday:

DCCC:

AZ-07: 63K
WV-01: 13K to produce new ad
MI-01: 10K to produce new ad
IL-17: 10K to produce new ad
CA-20: 40K

NRCC
OH-06: 27K for surveys, 5K for ads
HI-01: 122K
ND-AL: 19K
OH-18: 36K