AV referendum

[Insula Dei]

Why are the Tory backbenchers trying to move the referendum?

I'd think that a high turnout in Wales and Scotland which stand to lose some 18 seats, matched with a low turnout in say London, which will lose way less terrain, should benefit the NO-vote.
By the way, does anyone have an idea about the position of PC and the SNP about AV?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the way, does anyone have an idea about the position of PC and the SNP about AV?

I doubt they care much, not sure if either have 'official' positions on the matter yet. Though electorally it would help the SNP and screw Plaid, of course.

[Harry Hayfield]

By the way, does anyone have an idea about the position of PC and the SNP about AV?

I doubt they care much, not sure if either have 'official' positions on the matter yet. Though electorally it would help the SNP and screw Plaid, of course.

I mentioned this at a meeting this evening about the referendum and the general opinion was that Plaid will wait until the boundaries are released before commenting.

[Јas]

'No to AV' campaign claims support of 114 Labour MPs - Guardian

The 114:
David Anderson, Blaydon
Lindsay Hoyle, Chorley
Ian Austin, Dudley North
Tristram Hunt, Stoke-on-Trent Central
Adrian Bailey, West Bromwich West
Cathy Jamieson, Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Gordon Banks, Ochil and South Perthshire
Diana Johnson, Kingston upon Hull North
Margaret Beckett, Derby South
Helen Jones, Warrington North
Stuart Bell, Middlesbrough
Kevan Jones, North Durham
Joe Benton, Bootle
Eric Joyce, Falkirk
Clive Betts, Sheffield South East
Gerald Kaufman, Manchester Gorton
Hazel Blears, Salford and Eccles
Alan Keen, Feltham and Heston
David Blunkett, Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough
Ian Lavery, Wansbeck
Russell Brown, Dumfries and Galloway
Ivan Lewis, Bury South
David Cairns, Inverclyde
Ian Lucas, Wrexham
Ronnie Campbell, Blyth Valley
Denis MacShane, Rotherham
Jenny Chapman, Darlington
Steve McCabe, Birmingham, Selly Oak
Katy Clark, North Ayrshire and Arran
Michael McCann, East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Tom Clarke, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Siobhain McDonagh, Mitcham and Morden
Ann Clwyd, Cynon Valley
Jim McGovern, Dundee West
Vernon Coaker, Gedling
Alan Meale, Mansfield
David Crausby, Bolton North East
Ian Mearns, Gateshead
Mary Creagh, Wakefield
Alun Michael, Cardiff South and Penarth
John Cryer, Leyton and Wanstead
Andrew Miller, Ellesmere Port and Neston
Jim Cunningham, Coventry South
Austin Mitchell, Great Grimsby
Margaret Curran, Glasgow East
Graeme Morrice, Livingston
Simon Danczuk, Rochdale
Grahame Morris, Easington
Ian Davidson, Glasgow South West
George Mudie, Leeds East
Geraint Davies, Swansea West
Meg Munn, Sheffield, Heeley
Jim Dobbin, Heywood and Middleton
Paul Murphy, Torfaen
Thomas Docherty, Dunfermline and West Fife
Ian Murray, Edinburgh South
Brian H. Donohoe, Central Ayrshire
Fiona O’Donnell, East Lothian
Julie Elliott, Sunderland Central
Albert Owen, Ynys Môn
Louise Ellman, Liverpool, Riverside
Toby Perkins, Chesterfield
Natascha Engel, North East Derbyshire
Yasmin Qureshi, Bolton South East
Chris Evans, Islwyn
Rachel Reeves, Leeds West
Jim Fitzpatrick, Poplar and Limehouse
Linda Riordan, Halifax
Robert Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South
John Robertson, Glasgow North West
Caroline Flint, Don Valley
Frank Roy, Motherwell and Wishaw
Yvonne Fovargue, Makerfield
Barry Sheerman, Huddersfield
Sheila Gilmore, Edinburgh East
Jim Sheridan, Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Pat Glass, North West Durham
Gavin Shuker, Luton South
Mary Glindon, North Tyneside
Dennis Skinner, Bolsover
Paul Goggins, Wythenshawe and Sale East
Angela Smith, Penistone and Stocksbridge
Tom Greatrex, Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Nick Smith, Blaenau Gwent
Kate Green, Stretford and Urmston
John Spellar, Warley
Andrew Gwynne, Denton and Reddish
Graham Stringer, Blackley and Broughton
David Hamilton, Midlothian
Gisela Stuart, Birmingham, Edgbaston
Tom Harris, Glasgow South
Gerry Sutcliffe, Bradford South
John Healey, Wentworth and Dearne
Mark Tami, Alyn and Deeside
Mark Hendrick, Preston
Emily Thornberry, Islington South and Finsbury
Stephen Hepburn, Jarrow
Karl Turner, Kingston upon Hull East
David Heyes, Ashton-under-Lyne
Derek Twigg, Halton
Meg Hillier, Hackney South and Shoreditch
Keith Vaz, Leicester East
Julie Hilling, Bolton West
Joan Walley, Stoke-on-Trent North
Margaret Hodge, Barking
Dave Watts, St Helens North
Sharon Hodgson, Washington and Sunderland West
Chris Williamson, Derby North
Jim Hood, Lanark and Hamilton East
Phil Wilson, Sedgefield
Kelvin Hopkins, Luton North
David Winnick, Walsall North
George Howarth, Knowsley
David Wright, Telford

[Joe Republic]

Is there any hope at all of this passing?

[redcommander]

I say anything that benefits Nick Clegg should be shot down by the British public.

[Јas]

Is there any hope at all of this passing?

I shouldn't think so.

Yet the polling wouldn't necessarily indicate that it's hopeless - though it does seem quite confused. The most recent polling seems to be...
20 Dec, ICM: 44-38
13 Dec, YouGov: 33-39

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

'No to AV' campaign claims support of 114 Labour MPs - Guardian

Julie Hilling, Bolton West

Damn.  With AV she'd probably have a bigger majority than 81.

[tnowacki]

Just for the record: Does anybody know yet, what the particular question the people will be asked upon is going to be? I, for instance, would vote against AV, but for PR, if I were British.

[Јas]

Just for the record: Does anybody know yet, what the particular question the people will be asked upon is going to be?

Per section 1 of the current draft of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill:
At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead?

In Wales, the following tranlsation will also appear:
Ar hyn o bryd, mae’r DU yn defnyddio’r system “y cyntaf i’r felin” i ethol ASau i Doe’r Cyffredin. A ddylid defnyddio’r system “pleidlais amgen” yn lle hynny?

Pity there was no evidently satisfactory translation for 'system'.

I, for instance, would vote against AV, but for PR, if I were British.

Well, PR isn't an option - and isn't likely to be any time soon.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is there any hope at all of this passing?

I shouldn't think so.

Yet the polling wouldn't necessarily indicate that it's hopeless - though it does seem quite confused. The most recent polling seems to be...
20 Dec, ICM: 44-38
13 Dec, YouGov: 33-39

YouGov reads out arguements for and against. ICM just asks the referendum question straight off.

I say anything that benefits Nick Clegg should be shot down by the British public.

The easiest way for 'No' to win this is for them to paint it as a referendum on the Liberals and the Deputy Prime Minister - "Even the Prime Minister is against this."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the best poll for a referendum has it at 44 and only leading by six... hmm...

[Silent Hunter]

There's some doubt the bill will even get Royal Assent in time for the local elections.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just read that Plaid and the Welsh LDs could be wiped out under AV, coupled with the Welsh seat decrease to 29...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just read that Plaid and the Welsh LDs could be wiped out under AV, coupled with the Welsh seat decrease to 29...

Plaid have never been exactly transfer hostile, so I'm not sure where that idea comes from. I also don't see how you could avoid drawing at least one Plaid seat, even with a reduction in MPs. You can probably eliminate their Carmarthenshire seat* and one seat in Gwynedd, but the other seat in Gwynedd? Unless elimination was the intent it would be impossible without a change in political attitudes.

*Or could you? The knock-on effects of trying that might swing a Ceredigion seat firmly in their direction.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/02/02/is-cameron-planning-to-betray-his-party-over-av/

As if the bankbenchers would stand for it...

[Silent Hunter]

Lords adds "threshold" to AV bill

[afleitch]

Lords adds "threshold" to AV bill

What is it with Labour and the 40% turnout rule?; first George Cunningham and now this