AV referendum

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, yeah. Next year on the same day as the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections and local elections in, like, just about everywhere in England outside London (and some of the new unitaries? Um... I can't remember which had shadow elections and which had 'real' ones...). Was part of the coalition deal, of course. Cameron (and thus presumably the Tory Party and the bulk of the press) will campaign against it.

Discuss away and that that.

[k-onmmunist]

AV sucks. We want D'hondt!

[You kip if you want to...]

I think, in the end, it'll fail by a tiny margin. I'd prefer Additional Member though.

Isn't there a referendum due on directly elected mayors too?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Will unionists in NI campaign strongly for this? It would eliminate the problem of Sinn Fein winning seats cause the unionist vote is split.

I'd say I'm pretty confident this will fail (unfortunatley) The British people doesn't seem to be all that positive towards more hung parliamnets and coalitions. But then that's just the impression I've got, the British posters should know this better.

AV sucks. We want D'hondt!

Sainte-Laguë is preferable to D'hondt when it comes to real PR.

[Хahar 🤔]

Will unionists in NI campaign strongly for this? It would eliminate the problem of Sinn Fein winning seats cause the unionist vote is split.

I can't think of any cases of that recently, whereas the converse, unionists winning because of a split nationalist vote, has been fairly common.

[Franzl]

I don't think IRV leads to more hung parliaments, Swedish..Look at Australia.

[You kip if you want to...]

I don't think IRV leads to more hung parliaments, Swedish..Look at Australia.

Isn't Australia more of a two party system though, with just the Liberal-Nats and Labor?

AV is good in 2-party system, but the UK is very much a multi-party state.

[Smid]

I don't think IRV leads to more hung parliaments, Swedish..Look at Australia.

Isn't Australia more of a two party system though, with just the Liberal-Nats and Labor?

AV is good in 2-party system, but the UK is very much a multi-party state.

Depends... you might see a deal between, for example, Labour and the Tories to put the LibDems last, which will push things more towards a predominantly two-party system. In Australia, we saw elections where everyone put far-right One Nation Party candidates last which was one of many factors which helped lead to that party's demise.

[Хahar 🤔]

Only Australia, Papua New Guinea and Fiji use IRV for lower house elections. Fiji's political scene is subject to influences far greater than that of the electoral system, so it may be discounted. Papua New Guinea has only used IRV since 2007, so it may also be discounted. We are thus left with Australia, and this presents an insufficiently large sample size. Certainly, however, Australia had, by and large, a two-party system both before and after the introduction of IRV.

Basically, the jury's out on what effect IRV has on party systems.

[Harry Hayfield]

Alternative Vote Referendum Projection (based on manifestoes in 2010)
Yes, I am in favour of changing to AV 15,433,425 votes (56.56%)
Parties in favour of AV: Labour Liberal Democrats United Kingdom Independence Party
No, I am in favour of retaining First Past the Post 11,008,629 votes (40.35%)
Parties opposed to AV: Conservatives Greens
There are 843,277 votes (3.09%) which are not possible to determine which way they would vote (Plaid, SNP, and other smaller parties)

[minionofmidas]

Everything depends on what Labour do.

If they're enthusiastically for it, this'll be close.
If they don't care or are against it, it's dead in the water - and so is Nick Clegg. Which should tell you how this'll probably go.

[Хahar 🤔]

What reason are the Greens giving for opposition? The actual reason they're against it is obvious, but I don't know if they can go out and say it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What reason are the Greens giving for opposition? The actual reason they're against it is obvious, but I don't know if they can go out and say it.

The official reason, I think, is that it would make PR less likely.

[Harry Hayfield]

What reason are the Greens giving for opposition? The actual reason they're against it is obvious, but I don't know if they can go out and say it.

Their manifesto makes no mention of AV and references PR on several occasions. The tone of language they used made me think that for them it was a case of AMS or nothing

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[minionofmidas]

Will this vote be tied to all that Tory Crap about 3.5% variation, or is that to be enacted independently without asking the people?

[Harry Hayfield]

Will this vote be tied to all that Tory Crap about 3.5% variation, or is that to be enacted independently without asking the people?

As I understand it, the ideal end process for this is that the next general election will be held on May 7th 2015 and will elect a 585 seats House using the Alternative Vote electoral system.

[minionofmidas]

Yes... the question is: Do you vote on all that or just the AV part?

[k-onmmunist]

What reason are the Greens giving for opposition? The actual reason they're against it is obvious, but I don't know if they can go out and say it.

The official reason, I think, is that it would make PR less likely.

Same reason I'm considering a 'no' vote.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yes... the question is: Do you vote on all that or just the AV part?

Just AV. We can't even choose between AV and other systems. It's AV or nothing.

[You kip if you want to...]

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2735

This is pretty interesting. I wonder if it'll affect Labour's support of the referendum. Both of the Milibands, Abbott and Balls are for it while Burnham's against it.

I think it's worth noting that it's Labour voters who'll be the ones who decide this referendum. Tory voters will, presumably, be pretty much against it and the LibDems will probably go almost unanimously for it. A pretty big majority of Labour voters need to vote yes for it to pass. I can't really see many Labour tribalists voting yes if it looks like a No vote could cause big trouble for the Con-Libs... although maybe Labour's not as cynical as I think.

Either way, I don't support it simply because it's an even less proportional system than we have now. I don't really like the idea of people who don't support the big two, essentially, getting two votes while the other 65% of us get just the one. If AMS is good enough for Scotland and Wales, I can't see why the whole UK can't use it. The referendum shouldn't just be "Yes/No", we should be able to choose the system. I don't like this "AV or nothing" attitude from the government, atleast offer AV+ or something. If I was a LibDem, i'd feel pretty betrayed. AV isn't what they've been campaigning for since time immemorial, so it's not exactly substantive that they've sold-out on PR once they got the slightest whiff of power.

(Rant over and no, I didn't support AV when Labour proposed a referendum on it last September)

[Smid]

What reason are the Greens giving for opposition? The actual reason they're against it is obvious, but I don't know if they can go out and say it.

The official reason, I think, is that it would make PR less likely.

Same reason I'm considering a 'no' vote.

Also the same reason some republicans in Australia voted "no" in the republic referendum - they were hoping for direct election of a Head of State instead of one confirmed by a joint sitting of Parliament. Of course, that was ten years ago and there hasn't been another referendum on it...

The referendum shouldn't just be "Yes/No", we should be able to choose the system.

Referendums, by definition, are a Yes/No vote. Even if you didn't have a Yes/No vote on it, how would you work out which answer/option won? By preferential voting? By FPTP? Putting other options on the ballot paper would probably almost certainly lead to a failure to change the system. If anything, the referendum should be to remove the procedure for determining elections from the Constitution and instead having the Parliament determine the method and enacting a Bill accordingly. That's how it's done here - so we have different methods of electing the House of Reps and the Senate, and the method for electing the Senate is quite complex... and consequently probably would never have passed a referendum, given most people will not support at referendum something they don't understand ("when in doubt, vote 'no'").

[Harry Hayfield]

Rules and regulations (as announced in Parliament this afternoon)

• Referendum to be held on May 5th 2011 (and will be held on the same day as Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly and Local Elections in England)
• If referendum passes, leglisation will be passed to reduce to the House to 600 MP's and be capped at that level
• Two seats (Orkney and Shetland, Western Isles) will remain in their current forms
• A vote of no confidence will still require a simple majority, however an election will only occur if a government cannot be formed in 14 days
• It will take 66% of MP's (429 MP's) to force a dissoultion of Parliament

Based on the 2010 electorates, 261 seats will remain unchanged (as they are between the 5% margin of the average GB electorrate of 70,079 to 77,456). These seats are (in order of electorate)

Sevenoaks
North West Durham
Great Yarmouth
Vale of Glamorgan
Meon Valley
Brentwood and Ongar
Truro and Falmouth
South Thanet
South West Devon
North Warwickshire
South Derbyshire
Portsmouth North
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
Stafford
Haltemprice and Howden
Aldershot
Hove
Halifax
Harwich and North Essex
Cleethorpes
Dulwich and West Norwood
Poplar and Limehouse
Bournemouth West
Warrington North
Braintree
Spelthorne
Boston and Skegness
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Gedling
Tonbridge and Malling
Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Bolton West
Central Devon
North West Leicestershire
Derby South
Wakefield
Altrincham and Sale West
Maidstone and The Weald
Chorley
Broxbourne
Reigate
Hackney South and Shoreditch
Gillingham and Rainham
Romford
Garston and Halewood
Wyre and Preston North
Derby North
Broxtowe
South West Wiltshire
Harrow East
Dover
North East Hampshire
Rochford and Southend East
Reading West
Daventry
North East Derbyshire
Birmingham, Perry Barr
Newark
Sherwood
High Peak
Southampton, Test
Welwyn Hatfield
East Hampshire
Vauxhall
Blackburn
Mid Worcestershire
Birmingham, Northfield
Chippenham
Bournemouth East
South East Cornwall
Streatham
Cheadle
Battersea
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Tamworth
Broadland
North East Hertfordshire
Tooting
Bootle
Epping Forest
Wentworth and Dearne
Crawley
Doncaster North
Oldham West and Royton
Chesterfield
Hendon
Mole Valley
Rother Valley
Brighton, Pavilion
Hereford and South Herefordshire
Stoke-on-Trent North
Ilford North
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Poole
West Lancashire
Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Tunbridge Wells
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
Runnymede and Weybridge
Coventry North East
Lichfield
Manchester, Withington
Perth and North Perthshire
East Worthing and Shoreham
Selby and Ainsty
Manchester, Gorton
Norwich South
Maidenhead
South Suffolk
Brent Central
Cardiff South and Penarth
Hemel Hempstead
West Worcestershire
Birmingham, Yardley
East Devon
Rushcliffe
South Swindon
Birmingham, Ladywood
Gainsborough
Lincoln
Ealing North
Don Valley
Gosport
New Forest East
Worcester
Worsley and Eccles South
Coventry North West
Woking
Rossendale and Darwen
Bristol North West
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
South Dorset
Bolsover
Doncaster Central
Hemsworth
Barking
Wycombe
Liverpool, Riverside
Leicester East
Winchester
Coventry South
Gordon
North West Norfolk
Bromsgrove
Makerfield
East Lothian
Colchester
Henley
South Staffordshire
Canterbury
Worthing West
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Hitchin and Harpenden
Stockton South
Chipping Barnet
York Central
North Dorset
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
West Suffolk
South West Norfolk
Rochester and Strood
Beaconsfield
Bury South
North Devon
Mid Norfolk
Morley and Outwood
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Macclesfield
North Ayrshire and Arran
Sunderland Central
Dunfermline and West Fife
Southampton, Itchen
Charnwood
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
York Outer
Congleton
Salford and Eccles
Cannock Chase
Dumfries and Galloway
Reading East
Sutton Coldfield
Wigan
South Ribble
Birmingham, Selly Oak
Buckingham
Shrewsbury and Atcham
Burton
Dartford
Wythenshawe and Sale East
Basingstoke
Lanark and Hamilton East
Birmingham, Hodge Hill
Leigh
Richmond Park
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Ochil and South Perthshire
Cambridge
Croydon Central
Rayleigh and Wickford
Esher and Walton
St Austell and Newquay
Fareham
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
St Helens North
Saffron Walden
Mid Bedfordshire
Exeter
Mid Sussex
South Norfolk
Arundel and South Downs
Scarborough and Whitby
Epsom and Ewell
South West Bedfordshire
Livingston
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Horsham
Torbay
Bethnal Green and Bow
Wokingham
Tewkesbury
Tynemouth
South Holland and The Deepings
Ipswich
Torridge and West Devon
Birmingham, Hall Green
North West Hampshire
Batley and Spen
Solihull
Skipton and Ripon
Tiverton and Honiton
South West Surrey
Wealden
Bassetlaw
Wyre Forest
Wellingborough
Thirsk and Malton
Guildford
East Surrey
West Dorset
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Bracknell
Camberwell and Peckham
Hastings and Rye
South Leicestershire
Calder Valley
Rutland and Melton
The Cotswolds
Suffolk Coastal
North Somerset
Leicester South
North East Bedfordshire
Louth and Horncastle
Hampstead and Kilburn
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
Eastbourne
Ribble Valley
Eastleigh
Surrey Heath
Bosworth

[You kip if you want to...]

• It will take 66% of MP's (429 MP's) to force a dissoultion of Parliament

They must be joking. I guess that says a lot about how well they think the coalition will hold together.

[Franzl]

• It will take 66% of MP's (429 MP's) to force a dissoultion of Parliament

They must be joking. I guess that says a lot about how well they think the coalition will hold together.

You do understand that there is an alternative to 66% of MPs voting for dissolution?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently this will be on the same day as the Scottish and Welsh elections. Both First Ministers are not amused.