2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Tender Branson]

Final PPP Florida poll:

DEM Senate Primary:

Meek: 51%
Greene: 27%
Burkett: 5%
Ferre: 4%
Undecided: 13%

GOP Governor Primary:

Scott: 47%
McCollum: 40%
Undecided: 13%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_8221025.pdf

[Torie]

As to McCollum, one poll has it wrong. Interesting.

[Eraserhead]

It seems like the polling has been all over the place in GOP gubernatorial race for a while now but I really haven't paid that much attention to it, so what do I know...

[ajc0918]

McCollum!!!

[Holmes]

A Laird shirt?

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac weighs in a last time:

GOP Primary: 39% McCollum, 35% Scott, 4% Someone else, 22% Undecided
DEM Primary: 39% Meek, 29% Greene, 3% Ferre, 2% Someone else, 28% Undecided

From August 21 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 771 Republican likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points and 757 Democratic likely primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1491

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, so basically nobody really knows what the hell is going in McCollum-Scott...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, so basically nobody really knows what the hell is going in McCollum-Scott...

I only know that 1 of them will have a 20-point lead over Sink in the next Rasmussen poll ...

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, so basically nobody really knows what the hell is going in McCollum-Scott...

I only know that 1 of them will have a 20-point lead over Sink in the next Rasmussen poll ...

What a rebound! The Republicans are united! The Republicans are united!

[cinyc]

King County, Washington results so far by Legislative (House) District (King County Part of LD ONLY):

Murray vs. Rossi winner:


All Dems vs. All Republicans winner:



Typical Atlas Republican vs. Democrat colors; King County water features in light cyan.

[Rowan]

The MOE in the PPP poll is pretty high, making it almost useless.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Poll closing times for tomorrow:

7 ET - Florida, Vermont
8 ET - Oklahoma
10 ET - Arizona
12 ET - Alaska

Results pages for tomorrow's primaries, also added to OP:

AP results pages: AK | AZ | FL | OK | VT

State results pages: AK | AZ | FL | OK

[Torie]

It is odd that the GOP can't carry Mercer Island and Bellevue anymore (both upper middle class). Maybe the  Microsoft folks are all commie libs or something.

[Lunar]

I'm watching Vermont the closest tomorrow.

[Eraserhead]

I'm watching Vermont the closest tomorrow.

Care to share any of your thoughts on the Democratic gubernatorial contest? I was reading about it earlier today but I'm still pretty clueless as to what the differences are between the candidates (if there are any) and as to who is in lead (if anyone is).

[Lunar]

I'm watching Vermont the closest tomorrow.

Care to share any of your thoughts on the Democratic gubernatorial contest? I was reading about it earlier today but I'm still pretty clueless as to what the differences are between the candidates (if there are any) and as to who is in lead (if anyone is).

Eh, I'm most interested in it because it's a jump ball (kinda like the NY AG race), a couple frontrunners but the money really hasn't coalesced behind anyone while the primary's so undecided.  if I tried to predict the race, I'd just be a jackass because who can predict a five-way jump ball in a state as small and as retail politicking as a Vermont primary?

The race is basically three State Senators, one former State Senator, and the Secretary of State.  Only the latter is running as a moderate, while all of the others are running as progressive lions.  I've listened to like 1 hour long radio interviews with all the Democrats, and they all sound like they'll be solid.  Dubie's argument seems to be "Hey, even if I'm out of touch with Vermont, a supermajority in the legislature will just override my vetoes!" which sounds kind of like a lazy theme for a  campaign.

[Eraserhead]

Who are you backing in the NY AG race?

[Lunar]

Who are you backing in the NY AG race?

Dinallo

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2010/08/22/2010-08-22_go_with_dinallo.html

I've met Eric and he's a fantastic person, hyper smart, but with enough eccentric quirks that he's a human being (he's a big comic book nerd).

[Eraserhead]

Who are you backing in the NY AG race?

Dinallo

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2010/08/22/2010-08-22_go_with_dinallo.html

I've met Eric and he's a fantastic person, hyper smart, but with enough eccentric quirks that he's a human being (he's a big comic book nerd).

Comic book nerd?!? That might secure my vote right there.

[Lunar]

Yup, mega comic book nerd is what I hear.  Especially Spider Man

[Hash]

I'm watching Vermont the closest tomorrow.

Care to share any of your thoughts on the Democratic gubernatorial contest? I was reading about it earlier today but I'm still pretty clueless as to what the differences are between the candidates (if there are any) and as to who is in lead (if anyone is).

Yeah, VT being my favourite state, I'm kinda curious as to the differences in ideology and support between the massive overloaded field on the Dem side.

What kind of sacrificial lamb have the GOP managed to pick out to run against Leahy and Welch? A crazy-nutjob-who-should-live-in-Alabama loon or a sane rather moderate nobody?

[Tender Branson]

My predictions:

AK DEM GOV: Berkowitz 63%, French 37%
AK GOP GOV: Parnell with 90%+

AK DEM SEN: McAdams 38%, Vondersaar 34%, Kern 28%
AK GOP SEN: Murkowski 78%, Miller 22%

...

AZ DEM GOV: Terry Goddard with 90%+
AZ GOP GOV: Jan Brewer with 90%+

AZ DEM SEN: Glassman 46%, Parraz 25%, Eden 15%, Dougherty 14%
AZ GOP SEN: McCain 61%, Hayworth 37%, Deakin 2%

...

FL DEM GOV: Sink 91%, Moore 9%
FL GOP GOV: Scott 50.3%, McCollum 48.9%, McCalister 0.8%

FL DEM SEN: Meek 49%, Greene 39%, Ferre 6%, Burkett 6%
FL GOP SEN: Rubio with 90%+

...

VT DEM GOV: Markowitz 31%, Racine 21%, Shumlin 18%, Dunne 16%, Bartlett 14%
VT GOP GOV: Dubie with 90%+

VT DEM SEN: Leahy with 90%+
VT GOP SEN: Britton with 90%+

[redcommander]

If Scott wins I am totally going to root for Sink. No way he should touch the governor's mansion.

[Tender Branson]

Already more than 930,000 people have cast ballots via absentee or early voting  – or roughly 8 percent of the state's 11.1 million registered voters. And perhaps because of the $70-million blitz of attack ads in their gubernatorial primary, Republicans were voting early in higher numbers than in 2006.

Just over 524,600 GOP voters had cast ballots heading into today – about 13 percent of total registered Republicans. Some 350,000 Democrats, or just under 8 percent, also have voted.

Scott's campaign is banking on a wave of new or casual GOP voters, claiming the anti-incumbent mood will push turnout to 40 percent or more – the highest level since 1966. The campaign predicted 1.7 million Republicans would ultimately cast ballots.

But election officials said the number would likely be smaller, predicting perhaps 1.1 million or so. A rise in early voting, they said, doesn't guarantee higher turnout overall.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-primary-day-arrives-20100823,0,1075100.story

[redcommander]

Ok I will go ahead and make some predictions for winners in tomorrow's races

Alaska
Senate
Republican Lisa Murkowsi
Democrat Scott McAdams

Governor
Republican Sean Parnell
Democrat Hollis French

At-Large House Seat
Republican Don Young

Arizona
Senate
Republican John McCain
Democrat Rodney Glassman

Governor
Republican Jan Brewer
Democrat Terry Goddard

Arizona 1
Republican Paul Gosar

Arizona 3
Republican Pamela Gorman

Arizona 4
Republican Jose Penalosa

Arizona 5
Republican Susan Bitter Smith

Arizona 7
Republican Ruth McClung


Arizona 8 Jonathan Patton

Florida
Senate
Democrat Kendrick Meek

Governor
Republican Bill McCollum

Attorney General Pam Bondi

Florida 2
Republican Steve Southerland

Florida 8
Republican Daniel Webster

Florida 22
Republican Allen West

Florida 24
Republican Karen Diebel

Florida 25
Republican Marili Cancio

Oklahoma
Oklahoma 2
Republican Daniel Edmonds

Oklahoma 5
Republican Kevin Calvey

Vermont

Governor
Democrat Deb Markowitz