2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[redcommander]

Ugh Wyoming looks like it is heading for a repeat of Georgia

Mead isn't bad at all. He's my second pref.

Perhaps you're right. Very few people can top being as bad as Nathan Deal.

If Mead slaughtered the competition in Teton County (a.k.a. Jackson Hole a.k.a. resort towns), he can't be all that bad.

He's not. I'm just sad that Meyer is likely to lose, and in a close contest too like Georgia. Not saying Mead is anywhere on the same level as Deal. He is a good candidate, just not the one I wanted to win.

[SvenssonRS]

Ugh Wyoming looks like it is heading for a repeat of Georgia

Mead isn't bad at all. He's my second pref.

Perhaps you're right. Very few people can top being as bad as Nathan Deal.

If Mead slaughtered the competition in Teton County (a.k.a. Jackson Hole a.k.a. resort towns), he can't be all that bad.

He's not. I'm just sad that Meyer is likely to lose, and in a close contest too like Georgia. Not saying Mead is anywhere on the same level as Deal. He is a good candidate, just not the one I wanted to win.

Fair enough. I wanted Micheli to win, myself, but good enough is good enough.

[Tender Branson]

Seems like 2 other Palin endorsements didn´t help (Didier in WA, Meyer in WY).

[SvenssonRS]

I have no idea why AP hasn't called WYGOV yet.

[cinyc]

WA Senate Primary Map by County (Murray red, Rossi blue, Didier green):



Your typical east-west divide.

This was with 3382/6000 reporting.  I threw this together quickly and will double check data integrity.

[CatoMinor]

WA Senate Primary Map by County (Murray red, Rossi blue, Didier green):



Your typical east-west divide.

This was with 3382/6000 reporting.  I threw this together quickly and will double check data integrity.

Murray is winning Pacific county with 50%

[cinyc]

I have no idea why AP hasn't called WYGOV yet.

They should now.  With 486/486 reporting, Mead wins by 714.

[SvenssonRS]

I have no idea why AP hasn't called WYGOV yet.

They should now.  With 486/486 reporting, Mead wins by 714.

Suppose they might be waiting to see if anyone requests a recount.

[cinyc]

Murray is winning Pacific county with 50%

Now, perhaps.  But not with 3382/6000 reporting in the AP count, from whence I got the data.  There's a lag between me making a map and the data - usually a longer one the first time.

Edit:  Yes - with 3548/6000 in, some of both Pacific and Whatcom reported, with Murray leading in both:



Whitman is the only county fully missing.

[cinyc]

Final Wyoming Maps:

WY Gov D (Gosar blue, Petersen green):


WY Gov R (Mead blue, Meyer green, Micheli red, Simpson yellow):


WY US House R (Lummis blue, Slafter would have been green if he won anything):


Turnout in the WY Gov D primary was 34% of registered Democrats.  Turnout in the WY Gov R primary was 67% of registered Republicans.  Turnout maps by county (darker blue is higher).

Democratic (very weak):


Republican:

[SPC]

Why are the Washington returns coming in so slowly? It's been at 59.4% for half an hour @ Politico.com. Is there something fishy going on?

[RI]

Why are the Washington returns coming in so slowly? It's been at 59.4% for half an hour @ Politico.com. Is there something fishy going on?

No, that's just the nature of the all-mail system. They may have even stopped counting for tonight.

[cinyc]

Two Washington maps.  The first, showing the WA Senate leader by county (Murray red, Rossi blue, Didier green):



The second, showing the PARTY that received the most votes so far in each county (Republican blue, Democrats red):



Republicans lead statewide by about 50-48, roughly 14,000 votes.

This was with 3564/6000 in the AP count.

[SPC]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

[CatoMinor]

I was hoping Didier would do better but Rossi will have to do.

[SvenssonRS]

I was hoping Didier would do better but Rossi will have to do.

Basically the theme of the night. Wish someone else won, but the winner will have to do.

[Dan the Roman]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

After looking at the estimated outstanding ballots, there are about 242,000 of them, of which about 115,000 are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%, with 86,000 in King's, Snomish and Thurston. So the final should probably be a narrow, 50 -49ish Democratic lead.

[bgwah]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Uh, not really. They're perhaps a bit underrepresented relative to the rest of the state at the moment, but certainly not to the extent you're suggesting. What is your source anyway?

[cinyc]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Actually, the lead was only about 12,000 votes, since Goodspaceguy "prefers" the Democratic party.

[Dan the Roman]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Uh, not really. They're perhaps a bit underrepresented relative to the rest of the state at the moment, but certainly not to the extent you're suggesting. What is your source anyway?

Sorry, redid the math. It probably will come out about equal. But I did from the CD's reporting on Politico. the 3rd, 4th and 5th districts are at 71%, 73% and 67% in, the 7th is at only 44% and the 1st at 51%.  And within the 5th, the largest portion out is in Spokane, where the combined GOP total is only around 54%. King is half out, and the reporting split between the 8th and 7th implies that their is a bias within it towards the more GOP areas.

[CatoMinor]

Didier might win Adams county, there is only a 4 vote gap between him and Rossi with 70% in.

[Dan the Roman]

On one hand, the Republicans hold a narrow lead, which might be a good sign for them. On the other hand, they actually had a contested "primary", so Democratic turnout might be higher in the general election.

They won't hold that narrow lead at the end of the count. Half of King county, including virtually all of Seattle is still out. And probably 70%+ of the outstanding votes are in counties where the Democrats are over 50%. In the final count the Democrats should be between 51-52%.

Actually, the lead was only about 12,000 votes, since Goodspaceguy "prefers" the Democratic party.

That was the other thing. I was combining all of the Democrats.

[bgwah]

Unofficial results submitted to Atlas!

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&off=3&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

[bgwah]

Washington briefly had separate party primaries (including the 2004 primaries) but 1998 had an open primary.

Amusingly enough, it resembles this one somewhat...

1998:
46% Murray (D)
32% Smith (R)
15% Bayley (R)

2010:
46% Murray (D)
34% Rossi (R)
12% Didier (R)

[redcommander]

Washington briefly had separate party primaries (including the 2004 primaries) but 1998 had an open primary.

Amusingly enough, it resembles this one somewhat...

1998:
46% Murray (D)
32% Smith (R)
15% Bayley (R)

2010:
46% Murray (D)
34% Rossi (R)
12% Didier (R)

Murray isn't getting 58% again. Smith was too extreme to be elected statewide. Rossi is far more electable