A Different Decade

[Vosem]

This is going to be a mini-TL I'm going to write about the decade from 2000 - 2010. I may continue it to the mid-2010s. It's going to focus mostly on elections -- I'm not going to write much about the actual business of governing. This is basically a thought project about how elections would go given slightly different circumstances. The POD is that Bush's I've never been arrested lie is discovered three days before the '04 election instead of '00.

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2000 Presidential Election

At first glance, the 2000 election would appear to be heavily favored toward the Democratic candidate, Al Gore. Winning his primary with hardly a thought, Gore was representative of a successful, popular administration and seemed to have very little going against him...

But Gore's weakness was his utter lack of charisma, which Republicans exploited by nominated the charismatic Governor of Texas, George W. Bush. After an unexpectedly difficult primary against Arizona Senator John McCain, Bush entered the general election as a slight favorite.

The two chose fairly stereotypical running mates -- Gore chose Senator Joe Lieberman, of Connecticut, while Bush chose Dick Cheney, the former Secretary of Defense from Wyoming.

Bush maintained his slight lead all the way up to the general election, where he won by a smaller than expected margin, winning 48.4% of the vote to Gore's 47.9%. His electoral vote victory was more substantial, winning 301 electoral votes to Gore's 237. The closest state was Oregon, which went for Bush by just over half a percentage point - 0.56%, to be precise. The election had been clean and devoid of controversy.

George W. Bush/Richard "Dick" Cheney (Republican), 301 EV, 48.4% PV
Albert "Al" Gore/Joseph "Joe" Lieberman (Democratic), 237 EV, 47.9% PV

Elections downballot were fairly unexciting. Democrats picked up 5 Senate seats to 2 Republican pickups¹, and Republicans narrowly maintained control. Jim Jeffords became an independent later that year, but he kept caucusing with the GOP, so it hardly mattered².

Democrats made small gains in the House, but it hardly mattered.

The gubernatorial elections produced little change, with Missouri flipping from the Democrats to the Republicans and West Virginia doing the opposite³.

¹Basically, the Senate is OTL except Slade Gorton wins Washington, so the new Senate is 51-49 Republican rather than a tie.
²Jeffords offered to return to the GOP in 2002, but they actually rejected him. I doubt he'd switch caucuses if he would be in the minority if he did.
³Talent becomes Governor of Missouri, so he can't run for the Senate in '02 (since Carnahan's death is before the POD)...

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Excellent! If I may ask, what was the specific POD that led to Bush winning a much more decisive victory than in OTL? Did Bush's DUI not get discovered?

[Vosem]

Reply to Han:

Yeah. The idea is Bush's arrest is discovered three days before the '04 election instead of '00. And this won't really be focused on actual policy; it's a though experiment on how elections would've gone. I'm sort of angling for a more Republican decade, but realistically. The 'posts' are coming from the point of view of someone living in the timeline (except the footnotes and the intros, which come from me).

Actual Timeline:

The 2002 election goes better for Bush than OTL because, without the whole Florida thingy, he's a far less polarizing figure, and he succeeds in bringing the country together after 9/11 even more than OTL. This post is on Senate; governors are coming tomorrow.

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2002 Congressional Elections

With Bush having successfully united the country after 9/11, it should come as no surprise that 2002 was one of the few midterms where the incumbents gained seats. Gaining modestly in the House, the Republicans gained 5 seats in the Senate (John Thune of South Dakota; Norm Coleman of Minnesota; Matt Blunt of Missouri¹; Suzanne Haik Terrell of Louisiana; and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia), while Democrats gained only 1 (Mark Pryor of Arkansas). The Republican had a net gain of 4 seats, up to a majority of 55-45.

¹ But with a Republican succeeding Carnahan, wouldn't Talent have appointed a Republican to the seat, making Missouri a hold, not a pickup? No, because OTL, Carnahan's Lt. Gov., not his elected successor, nominated his wife after his death, and there's nothing to stop it from happening ITTL, though it'd be more controversial.

Postscript:

Governors tomorrow.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

This is quite interesting. I would like to see how it all plays out.

[Vosem]

2002 Gubernatorial Elections

All politics is local, and the 2002 gubernatorial elections proved it. Somehow or other, even with a strong wind at their backs, Republicans couldn't win Kansas.

Republicans picked up 11 Governor's Mansions. Democrats counter-picked-up 5.

Republican holds included Arizona (where Matt Salmon was elected to replace Jane Dee Hull), Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida (where incumbent Governors Mike Huckabee, Bill Owens, John Rowland, and Jeb Bush were reelected), Idaho (Dirk Kempthorne reelected), Massachusetts (Paul Cellucci reelected), Michigan (where Dick Posthumus elected to replace John Engler), Nebraska, Nevada, New York, Ohio (incumbent Governors Mike Johanns, Kenny Guinn, George Pataki, and Bob Taft reelected), Oklahoma (Steve Largent elected to replace incumbent Frank Keating), Rhode Island (Donald Carcieri replaced Lincoln Almond), South Dakota (Mike Rounds succeeded Bill Janklow), Tennessee (Van Hilleary replaced Don Sundquist), Texas, Wisconsin (where incumbents Rick Perry and Scott McCallum were reelected), and Wyoming (Eli Bebout elected to replace Jim Geringer).

Republican pickups included Alabama (Bob Riley), Alaska (Frank Murkowski), California (Bill Simon), Georgia (Sonny Perdue), Hawaii (Linda Lingle), Maryland (Robert Ehrlich), Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty), New Hampshire (Craig Benson), Oregon (Kevin Mannix), South Carolina (Mark Sanford), and Vermont (Jim Douglas).

Democrats had just 1 hold -- all other victories were pickups: they reelected Tom Vilsack in Iowa.

Democratic pickups included Illinois (Rod Blagojevich), Kansas (Kathleen Sebelius), Maine (John Baldacci), New Mexico (Bill Richardson), and Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell).

[Bo]

Good so far. I hope Bush doesn't go into Iraq, just to spice up this TL a bit.

[Vosem]

Good so far. I hope Bush doesn't go into Iraq, just to spice up this TL a bit.

The goal here is to have a Republican advantage all decade long. Iraq was a political minefield, and the goal of the next several posts will be to shove blame on to the Democrats...

The next post is about the '04 Democratic primaries. Bush has still entered Iraq.

[Vosem]

George Bush Supreme Court Appointments (1st term)

In 2001, Supreme Court judge David Souter retired. Bush published a potential-nominee shortlist, consisting of Court of Appeals Judges Michael Luttig, Emilio Garza, and Edith Jones, and also Texas Supreme Court judge Priscilla Owen. Bush ultimately nominated Jones, who was fairly comfortably confirmed by the Senate.

[Vosem]

2004 Democratic Primaries

Ten candidates had announced for the Democratic nomination, but by the time Iowa had come along the media had narrowed the field down to four candidates: General Wesley Clark, former Governor Howard Dean, Senator John Kerry, and Senator John Edwards.

General Clark was considered the frontrunner. He led in Iowa according to all polling, he had been endorsed by former President Bill Clinton, and he had the military experience thought necessary to counteract Bush in an election where the dominant issue was terrorism.

Governor Dean was the candidate of the progressives. He held a narrow lead in New Hampshire over John Kerry. Unknown outside of his home state as recently as three years ago, Dean had begun his campaign insanely early -- March of '02 -- and had succeeded in using the time by himself in the field to his advantage.

Senator Kerry was progressive (but not as much as Dean), and had military experience (but not as much as Clark). One talking head described Kerry as "the candidate with everything, just not enough of it." Still, he was only slightly behind in the New Hampshire polls.

Senator Edwards was the odd one out. The only charismatic candidate in the field, Edwards had made the mistake of focusing jointly on Iowa and New Hampshire, so he was not leading in either place. Nevertheless, he was routinely very high in national polling, and so was considered a frontrunner.

Clark won Iowa narrowly over Edwards. Dean's campaign entered a freefall period immediately afterwards, culminating in him coming third in New Hampshire, behind Kerry (the winner) and Edwards.

Dean did manage to win the D.C. primary, however.

Mini Tuesday occurred on February 5th. It was a field day for Clark, who won Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Kerry carried Delaware, while Edwards won North Dakota and South Carolina.

Dean dropped out on the 6th of February, and endorsed Kerry, contributing to Kerry's turnaround the next day, when he won Michigan and Washington. Several days later, Kerry won Maine.

Edwards won Tennessee and Virginia, both states which had expected to vote Clark. Clark poured energy into the state of Nevada, hoping to win it for the media to portray the event as a renaissance. On February 14, Clark just defeated Kerry in Nevada, but nearly bankrupted his campaign to do so.

Clark put whatever remaining energy he had into Wisconsin, promising to drop out if he lost. He came in third, behind Kerry (the winner and increasing frontrunner) and Edwards.

On February 24, Kerry won Hawaii, but Edwards came from behind to win Idaho and Utah, cautioning Kerry, "Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear."

Super Tuesday was next. Kerry won all contests but two, as Edwards carried Georgia and Dean (who wasn't a candidate) carried Vermont.

March 9 was Southern Day. Kerry carried Florida, but Edwards won Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas.

This would be Edwards' last moment of glory, however. Kerry would win all contests over the next two months, finally culminating in Kerry's clinching the nomination on April 17, in North Carolina. Edwards won North Carolina, but due to the Democrats' proportional primary system, it was also the event that gave Kerry the victory. Edwards dropped out that day.

Red - Kerry
Green - Edwards
Blue - Clark
Grey - Dean

[Antonio the Sixth]

I was hoping for a better Dem candidate, sigh...

[Bo]

Go Bush 2004! (even though I think Kerry will win in this TL). BTW, just out of curiousity, what was Bush's victory margin in FL, IA, WI, NM, and OR in this TL?

[Vosem]

BTW, just out of curiousity, what was Bush's victory margin in FL, IA, WI, NM, and OR in this TL?

The closest state was Oregon, which went for Bush by just over half a percentage point - 0.56%, to be precise.

I already mentioned the Oregon margin.

In addition...

Florida: Bush +1.01
Iowa: Bush +0.69
Wisconsin: Bush +0.78
New Mexico: Bush +0.94

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Good so far. I hope Bush doesn't go into Iraq, just to spice up this TL a bit.

The goal here is to have a Republican advantage all decade long. Iraq was a political minefield, and the goal of the next several posts will be to shove blame on to the Democrats...

The next post is about the '04 Democratic primaries. Bush has still entered Iraq.

I don't think I like this goal. I think the goal should be to see how it would realistically play out because of the different circumstances. This goal seems more like hackery than anything else.

[Vosem]

Good so far. I hope Bush doesn't go into Iraq, just to spice up this TL a bit.

The goal here is to have a Republican advantage all decade long. Iraq was a political minefield, and the goal of the next several posts will be to shove blame on to the Democrats...

The next post is about the '04 Democratic primaries. Bush has still entered Iraq.

I don't think I like this goal. I think the goal should be to see how it would realistically play out because of the different circumstances. This goal seems more like hackery than anything else.

That was phrased wrong. I picked a specific scenario where Republicans would realistically do significantly better.

[Vosem]

2004 Presidential Election

At first glance, George Bush's reelection should have been a given. He was popular, charismatic, uncontroversial wartime president facing an opponent who was not charismatic, had had to deal with a difficult primary, and not difficult to paint as an extremist.

However, John Kerry steadily narrowed Bush's lead throughout the summer (picking U.S. Representative from Missouri Dick Gephardt as his vice-presidential candidate), and by mid-fall the race had stabilized, with Bush generally ahead 2 to 4 percentage points.

Just three days before the election, it was revealed that Bush's claim of having never been arrested was a lie, as an old DUI for drunk driving was unearthed. Kerry enjoyed a literally last-minute surge, and came from behind to win the election.

John Kerry/Richard "Dick" Gephardt (Democratic), 284 EV, 49.6% PV
George Bush/Richard "Dick" Cheney (Republican), 254 EV, 49.5% PV

However, the election was insanely close in the popular vote, with Kerry defeating Bush by just 0.1%. Still, Kerry's win was sound, and he was sworn in as President on the 21st of January, 2005.

[Vosem]

2004 Senate Elections

Ultimately, the Senate elections that accompanied the 2004 presidential race proved inconclusive, with Republicans picking up 3 seats (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia), and Democrats picking up 3 seats (Colorado, Alaska, Kentucky).

In addition, other close races included Florida (where Democratic state legislator Betty Castor just defeated Republican Bush administration official Mel Martinez), Illinois (where Senator Peter Fitzgerald narrowly fought off a challenge from state Senator Barack Obama), Louisiana (Senator John Breaux faced a surprisingly virulent challenge from U.S. Representative David Vitter), Oklahoma (where former U.S. Representative Tom Coburn defeated incumbent U.S. Representative Brad Carson by a surprisingly large margin), and South Dakota (where Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle narrowly defeated former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby).

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2004 Gubernatorial Elections

The gubernatorial elections were similarly inconclusive. Republicans picked up seats in Indiana and Washington, whereas Democrats picked up Montana and New Hampshire.

The closest gubernatorial race was Missouri, where incumbent Governor Jim Talent narrowly fended off a challenge from Claire McCaskill, 49.6% to 49.2%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, good to see that it won't be a 12-year republican domination (still I'd have prefered Dean to Kerry as president...).

[Vosem]

2005 Massachusetts Special Senatorial Election

In anticipation of John Kerry's potential election President of the United States, and trying to avoid Governor Paul Cellucci nominating a Republican to the Senate, the Democratic-controlled legislature changed the law, turning the nomination system into an election.

This system was triggered by the resignation of John Kerry. After a lengthy Democratic primary, Democrats settled on Attorney General Thomas Reilly as nominee. For Republicans, 1994 Senate nominee and businessman Mitt Romney was nominated without a fight.

Cahill was a weak nominee, and entered leading by just over 10 points, which would have been a massive under-performance for a state like Massachusetts. However, Riley ran a horrible campaign, while the charismatic Romney spent more than 6 million. The candidacy of Green-Rainbow Party candidate Jill Stein did not help Reilly either. Romney ultimately defeated Riley by a 50-45 margin, with 3% voting for Stein, 1% for a Libertarian, and 1% more for others.

John Kerry had just entered office, and he had already been embarassed by the election of Romney. It would be a taste of things to come for his administration. Romney's election increased the Republican Senate majority to the fairly large 56-44.

[Bo]

Nice job. I smell a GOP win in 2008 (and possibly 2012 and 2016 as well).

[Vosem]

Cabinet of John Kerry

Secretary of State: Richard Holbrooke
Secretary of the Treasury: Larry Summers
Secretary of Defense: Wesley Clark
Attorney General: John Edwards
Secretary of the Interior: Tim Wirth
Secretary of Agriculture: Christie Vilsack
Secretary of Commerce: Gary Locke
Secretary of Labor: Hilda Solis
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Howard Dean
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Tom Menino
Secretary of Transportation: Norman Mineta
Secretary of Energy: Steven Chu
Secretary of Education: Colin Powell
Secretary of Veterans’ Affairs: Eric Shinseki
Secretary of Homeland Security: James Jones

[Derek]

Cabinet of John Kerry

Secretary of State: Richard Holbrooke
Secretary of the Treasury: Larry Summers
Secretary of Defense: Wesley Clark
Attorney General: John Edwards
Secretary of the Interior: Tim Wirth
Secretary of Agriculture: Christie Vilsack
Secretary of Commerce: Gary Locke
Secretary of Labor: Hilda Solis
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Howard Dean
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Tom Menino
Secretary of Transportation: Norman Mineta
Secretary of Energy: Steven Chu
Secretary of Education: Colin Powell
Secretary of Veterans’ Affairs: Eric Shinseki
Secretary of Homeland Security: James Jones

You forgot to put Jane Fonda in there.

[Bo]

BUMP. Very nice.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Just started reading this.

Fun fact: No President since 1988 has garnered a majority of the popular vote ITTL.

[Vosem]

John Kerry 1st Term Supreme Court Nominations

In 2005, Chief Justice Warren Rehnquist died, after over thirty years on the Court. Kerry's initial nominee was Senator Hillary Clinton, former First Lady and Senator from New York. Clinton, after some deliberation, politely declined.

Kerry's next choice was 9th Circuit Judge Sidney Thomas, a little-known judge. Immediately, Republican groups began trying to paint Thomas as a liberal, and not fit to hold office on the Supreme Court. Thomas's lack of a paper record - unusual for such a high-ranking judge - worked against him, as Republicans defined the nominee as too liberal¹ for appointment to the Supreme Court. Eventually, Thomas was defeated by a close 51-49 margin, with 5 Republicans (Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island; Olympia Snowe of Maine; Susan Collins of Maine; Jim Jeffords of Vermont (technically an Independent Republican); and Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois) in favor. Notably, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts voted against Thomas.

Finally, Kerry needed a third nominee. After some hesitation, he nominated Hennepin County, Minnesota Attorney Amy Klobuchar, a rising star in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Although politically further to the left than Thomas, efforts against Klobuchar were weaker, and she was ultimately confirmed to the Supreme Court by a 56-44 margin, with 12 Republicans in favor.

The Thomas nomination was the first real failure for Kerry. It would head a long list...

¹I have nothing against Judge Thomas. I picked a random name from Obama's Supreme Court candidates list on Wikipedia.

[tmthforu94]

I just started reading this and really enjoyed it! Keep it up.