2008 Democratic PrimariesConsidering the economic recession that gripped the country in 2007; considering President Kerry’s failure to deal with Hurricane Katrina; considering two unpopular wars, in which failure to deal with insurgents was blamed on the President; considering the Thomas fiasco and considering the President’s continuing inability to nominate an Attorney General to succeed John Edwards (and, for that matter, considering the Edwards affair), it was clear that President John Kerry would receive a primary challenger.
The front-runner for the nomination was Hillary Clinton, the former First Lady and junior Senator from New York. Polling showed Clinton easily defeating Kerry in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
But Clinton understood the lay of the land, and understood that Democrats were not about to win the 2008 election. She passed.
Ultimately, Kerry received three challengers, all three from his right: the former Governor of Virginia, Mark Warner; the Senator from Indiana, Evan Bayh; and the Governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius.
Iowa was the first Democratic contest. Kansas and Iowa were states with a similar culture, and Sebelius was successfully able to project her Kansan popularity into Iowa. She won the state, with Warner in second, Bayh third, and the President lagging behind in fourth. With her victory in Iowa, the media recognized Sebelius as the front-runner in the disorganized field, especially after polling showed a strong victory bounce for the Governor and a lead in New Hampshire.
The President campaigned in New Hampshire painting Warner and Bayh as insignificant, and painting Sebelius (viewed as the front-runner) as being too conservative. New England was the President’s best region, with average approval still in the forties. Unexpectedly, Kerry eked out a victory in New Hampshire, with Sebelius second, Warner third, and Bayh in last place.
There were no delegates at stake in the Michigan primary, and the only one of the major candidates on the ballot was Sebelius. She won.
The next truly important race was Nevada. Polls showed a tie between Sebelius and Kerry, with Warner and Bayh largely ignoring the state to campaign in South Carolina. Ultimately, Kerry (who still had momentum from his New Hampshire victory) narrowly defeated Sebelius, with Warner in third and Bayh in fourth.
Kerry and Sebelius hurried over to New Hampshire, where Warner and Bayh had both established footholds. For Warner and Bayh, neither of whom had yet won a primary, a loss would clearly be the end of the road; a victory would indicate campaign rejuvenation.
Mark Warner won the South Carolina primary. Kathleen Sebelius came in second; Evan Bayh third; and President John Kerry came in fourth, evidence of the distrust the South harbored against him.
Again, none of the major candidates except Sebelius was on the ballot in Florida, which had abandoned its delegates for an early contest. Therefore, Sebelius won.
Super Tuesday occurred on February 5, 2008. 23 contests were held, with 1,681 pledged delegates at stake.
Kerry won American Samoa, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York.
Warner won Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
Sebelius won Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Utah.
President Kerry was the clear winner of Super Tuesday, locking up New England, and tying Sebelius out west. Warner won the south and successfully carried Illinois in a surprise upset over Kerry.
But Sebelius was the clear loser. The west was her base; now, there were significant Kerry inroads in the area. Her supporters were demoralized and dejected. She was declining in the polls and short on funds. Finally, seeing no other option, Sebelius announced she was dropping out on the 14th of February, 2008 (though by then she had carried Nebraska) and endorsing President Kerry. Within one month, she had gone from likely nominee to drop-out.
More primaries were held soon after. Several days later, Louisiana selected Warner, Nebraska picked Sebelius in her last victory of the primary season, while Washington state and the U.S. Virgin Islands supported Kerry. The next day, Kerry again demonstrated his New England dominance with a victory in Maine.
Warner then won the so-called Potomac primary, winning his home state of Virginia and the bordering state of Maryland. Warner also won Washington, D.C., whereas Kerry won the Democrats Abroad.
One week later, Hawaii voted for Kerry. Wisconsin was, at first, a battleground between Warner and Kerry, but polls slowly showed Kerry gaining an advantage in the state, which he ultimately won.
At the beginning of March, four states voted in a contest which was projected to decide the contest between Warner and Kerry. Dubbed by the media Super Tuesday 2.0, it was viewed as Warner’s last chance to truly make an impact on the race.
Ultimately, Kerry carried Vermont and Rhode Island; Warner carried Ohio and (very narrowly) Texas. Nevertheless, Warner’s margins of victory were not sufficiently large enough to make much of a difference.
Just two more primaries occurred in March: Wyoming (won by Kerry) and Mississippi (won by Warner).
The next primary was not until the end of April: Pennsylvania. Similar contests in Ohio and Illinois had been won by Warner – and, indeed, polls generally showed Warner significantly ahead. Kerry would need a miracle to win such a pro-Warner state.
He got one.
Since the resignation of Attorney General John Edwards back in 2006, Kerry had failed to appoint a successor, with two high-profile failures named ‘Deval Patrick’ and ‘Jennifer Granholm’, Kerry finally nominated Illinois Attorney General and 2004 Senatorial nominee Barack Obama. Four days before the primary, Obama gave his famous ‘A More Perfect Union’ speech before Congress, followed by the Republican-dominated Senate and House confirming Obama as Attorney General.
After this victory, Kerry enjoyed a not-insignificant bump in his poll numbers, and came from behind to upset Warner in Pennsylvania.
Brushing aside rumors that he would drop out, Warner continued to run, losing Guam but enjoying two highly-publicized victories in Indiana and North Carolina at the beginning of May, and victories in West Virginia and Kentucky a week later.
This was the end of the road for Warner, however. Kerry carried the remaining contests of Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota.
However, Warner decided to endorse Kerry on June 9th. Kerry became the presumptive nominee.
After the chaotic nomination process, the President had been re-nominated for a second term. But the long battle against Warner had drained resources and split the Democratic Party. Kerry would ultimately keep Vice President Gephardt on the ticket, in spite of rumors that Gephardt would be replaced by Warner or Sebelius.
Red - Kerry
Blue - Warner
Green - Sebelius
