Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[afleitch]

Page 9 news in the Evneing Times today as Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray launches Labour's campaign.

No joke; I can't even find the story on the BBC

In other news, former Ayr MP and later South of Scotland MSP, Phil Gallie has died.

[afleitch]

The AV referendum result will apparently delay the result until the Saturday

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/scotland/Holyrood-result-to-be-delayed.6706200.jp

If the use those %*£!ing machines again we'll know the result by next year

[You kip if you want to...]

The AV referendum result will apparently delay the result until the Saturday

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/scotland/Holyrood-result-to-be-delayed.6706200.jp

If the use those %*£!ing machines again we'll know the result by next year

Bloody hell. You'd think they'd try and be more efficient if they're gonna spend £100 million on a referendum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's really ridiculous.

[afleitch]

Wendy Alexander will be standing down as an MSP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wendy Alexander will be standing down as an MSP

Not really surprising given everything. Interesting that she's doing so so late though; successful attempt to shaft someone internally?

[afleitch]

Wendy Alexander will be standing down as an MSP

Not really surprising given everything. Interesting that she's doing so so late though; successful attempt to shaft someone internally?

Possibly.

She has lost alot her friends over the years (including Dewar) as the composition of the party has shifted. It is now effectively lead by the 'triumvirate' of Iain Gray (an empty suit), Andy Kerr and Tom McCabe who were briefing against her when she was leader. That's why Jack McConnell, another Alexander ally has stuck around for longer than was expected. They had hoped that 2011 could have seen an influx from defeated Labour candidates in 2010...who of course all got re-elected.

It's going to cause problems for the party at some point.

[afleitch]

Davena Rankin, active trade unionist and former Tory candidate for Glasgow East has, Labour claim defected to them. There has been no statement from her or from the Tories. She was on the Glasgow list for the party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She's Unison if I remember right, so wouldn't be entirely surprising if true.

---

Meanwhile, Bill Aitken has been resigned.

[afleitch]

She's Unison if I remember right, so wouldn't be entirely surprising if true.

---

Meanwhile, Bill Aitken has been resigned.

Yes; he had to go. Reading the transcript he was digging alot of holes and talking alot of bollocks. And his knowledge of Glasgow geography was quite worrying for a list MSP :/

[minionofmidas]

Wait - you mean that's not actually an area where prostitutes take their clients?

[afleitch]

Wait - you mean that's not actually an area where prostitutes take their clients?

Not Renfrew Street on a Thursday (student night) night at midnight. You can't find a busier place at that time of night; being dragged off into Renfrew Lane is a possibility (at the back of the Savoy; pitch black). Bill Aitken laughed at the suggestion that could have happened as he said it was 'half a mile' away which beggars belief.

[minionofmidas]

Meh. People's grasp of distances tends to be utterly hilarious.

Though recently I spent a few hours working side by side with some old guy, and his command of distances was downright spooky. Could tell you off the top of his head whether the next available parking was closer 250m or 300m away, and looked at a two-by-four lying a little away and told me it was 2.3m long.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

News, news, new... the LibDem candidate for Aberdeen Donside is being prosecuted for soliciting prostitutes and so is no longer the LibDem candidate for Aberdeen Donside.

He is sixty four years old.

[Хahar 🤔]

Gross.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New YouGov poll...

Constituency: Labour 41%, SNP 32%, Con 15%, LDem 7%
Regional: Labour 40%, SNP 28%, Con 15%, LDem 7%, Greens 6%

[Insula Dei]

So, unsurprisingly that MORI poll probably was an outlier.

EDIT: Though the big lead Salmond appears to have as preferred First Minister might yet turn the tides. Any ideas/remarks on that discrepancy?

[afleitch]

So, unsurprisingly that MORI poll probably was an outlier.

EDIT: Though the big lead Salmond appears to have as preferred First Minister might yet turn the tides. Any ideas/remarks on that discrepancy?

Possibly. There are some concerns at what YouGov is doing to it's data; and if the Labour Region vote looks odd that is because it is.

The unweighted figures for the poll were;

Constituency Vote

SNP 41
LAB 28
CON 18
LIB 6

Regional List

SNP 34
LAB 26
CON 19
LIB 6
OTH 16

After weighting a 13pt SNP lead became a 9pt Labour one.

Once the internals are released it will be worth looking at again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think with YouGov you should either take it or leave it; the way they poll largely involves taking inherently unrepresentative samples and making them 'look right' (and always has done; it's why they were a controversial company right from the start), rather than anything resembling normal polling methods.

[afleitch]

I think with YouGov you should either take it or leave it; the way they poll largely involves taking inherently unrepresentative samples and making them 'look right' (and always has done; it's why they were a controversial company right from the start), rather than anything resembling normal polling methods.

Very true; while Ipsos-Mori do not have the grandest reputation amongst pollsters unlike YouGov and the System 3 successor (whatever the hell its called) I can walk through their tables and see what they are doing, even though in their poll I believe they overestimated SNP by a few poins. YouGov seem to change their methodology with each sucessive (and sporadic) poll which is unfortunate. The internals will be worth looking at anyway.

I tend to be mis-trusting of any poll that suggests Labour will outperform 1999.

[afleitch]

Ah; details details

This poll weighed by 'party ID' (not the same as voting intention; the figures appear to be Labour 38, SNP 16) and er...newspaper readership. It did not weigh by likelyhood to vote.

[afleitch]

Thought I'd stick this somewhere. This is the total party vote per ward for the 2007 council elections. I just like pretty colours.

[joevsimp]

are the colours related to vote share or number of seats?

[afleitch]

are the colours related to vote share or number of seats?

They are related to % lead over the second party in vote share. I should have included a key :/ Other maps relating to number of seats held have been put on this site somewhere else. I'll see if I can find a link!

[You kip if you want to...]

TNS-BMRB/Herald:

Constituency
44 (-5)
29 (-4)
12 (+3)
11 (+4)

Regionals
39 (-8)
29 (-4)
11 (+2)
10 (+3)
6 (+3)

Seats (from Scotland Votes)
59 (+13)
39 (-8)
12 (-5)
12 (-4)
6 (+4)
1 (nc)

TNS changed their methods, explaining the big swings here. Also, the last TNS was quite suspect anyway - Labour was up on 49%.