The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 32%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 1%
Others: 1%

Today is also a referendum in the town of Eberau (Burgenland) on the construction of an asylum center. It is expected that 90% of the people there will vote "No".

[Tender Branson]

Today is also a referendum in the town of Eberau (Burgenland) on the construction of an asylum center. It is expected that 90% of the people there will vote "No".

92% voted "No" on the asylum center (Austria really likes aslyum seekers ... ).

Turnout = 85%

[Hans-im-Glück]

Today is also a referendum in the town of Eberau (Burgenland) on the construction of an asylum center. It is expected that 90% of the people there will vote "No".

92% voted "No" on the asylum center (Austria really likes aslyum seekers ... ).

Turnout = 85%

This isn't a surprise. In the most towns in Europe (and not only Europe) you will have the same result, in a election with this question.

[Tender Branson]

At the federal FPÖ-meeting yesterday it was announced that the FPÖ will definitely run a candidate for President. The Lower Austria FPÖ has nominated Barbara Rosenkranz, but the Vienna FPÖ is more likely to back a Strache candidacy. The final meeting will be on March 5, when they declare the candidate. They are deciding very late to give President Fischer`s campaign team as little time as possible to adjust to their candidate. But it will be one of these two:



Left: Heinz-Christian Strache, Right: Barbara Rosenkranz

Details of the FPÖ-campaign are also clear: They will run a heavy nationalist-conservative campaign against the SPÖVP government, against the EU, for safe borders and security and probably also against asylum seekers and foreigners in general, spending about 5 Mio. € on the campaign.

[Tender Branson]

In newspaper articles today it was said that the ÖVP will decide this Thursday if they run a candidate.

More news on the FPÖ-candidate: Rosenkranz has received the backing of all state FPÖ-leaders to run for President. So it is basically 100% sure that the FPÖ will run Rosenkranz for President and Strache as frontrunner in the October Vienna state elections.

Then, on March 1, candidates for President must collect 6000 signatures to run - they have time until March 26.

I hope this postponing of the announcements will end soon and we see polls between Fischer and Rosenkranz, because there has been none so far !!!

[Tender Branson]

First Gallup/Ö24 poll for the Presidential elections, now that ÖVP and Greens have announced that they will not run a candidate:

President Heinz Fischer (IND/SPÖ): 79%
Barbara Rosenkranz (ANNP/FPÖ): 21%

President Heinz Fischer (IND/SPÖ): 84%
Heinz Christian Strache (ANNP/FPÖ): 16%

The newspaper "Profil" has learned though that Strache will nominate Rosenkranz as Presidential candidate in the Sunday editorial of the "Krone" newspaper.

Rosenkranz is largely unknown to the Austrians and I consider this the base for her. With xenophobic campaigning I could see her gaining up to 30-40% of the vote.

She does best with lower-income workers, younger voters and voters from Lower Austria and Carinthia. Currently, she only get`s 48% of the FPÖ-vote against Fischer - this will certainly grow once the campaign starts.

The turnout for the elections, according to Gallup, could hit a new low at 65%, with ÖVP and Green voters now staying at home.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofburg-Wahl-Rosenkranz-vor-Strache-0652591.ece

Also, next Monday the BZÖ will decide if they run a candidate, most likely Josef Bucher. They said that Bucher could be a real alternative for ÖVP-voters, who do not want to vote for the "Socialist" Fischer and the "Nazi" Rosenkranz. They would spend some 800.000€ on the campaign, but if they get a low percentage then the BZÖ is financially doomed for the 2013 parliamentary elections.

[Hash]

Why does Strache do worse in the early matchups against Rosenkranz, who's pretty much a Nazi (which Strache is not - not entirely at least)?

[minionofmidas]

Strache is a neonazi prole. Rosenkranz is a middleclass paleonazi. Guess who has more appeal with Conservatives.

[Tender Branson]

Why does Strache do worse in the early matchups against Rosenkranz, who's pretty much a Nazi (which Strache is not - not entirely at least)?

Strache is a neonazi prole. Rosenkranz is a middleclass paleonazi. Guess who has more appeal with Conservatives.

Yes, that, and they appeal to different segments of the population. Strache is hugely popular with the younger voters, whereas Rosenkranz has more limited appeal within this group, but she scores with the rural older population - which always votes in the elections and what`s more important in the polls above - answer the mainline phones. Younger people have mobile phones, are at work or in school, therefore Rosenkranz does better in the polls than Strache I would guess.

In the end, it`s a Rosenkranz-Strache ticket anyway, because Strache has said he will heavily campaign for Rosenkranz and be with her on campaign posters. I guess this will be to bring the young voters to the polls.

Also, another fact is that Strache has already challenged Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl to become the new mayor of Vienna in October and Strache has always said he wants to be the next Austrian chancellor after the 2013 parliamentary elections. So, voters could think that he also wants to become President is too much, whereas Rosenkranz is a largely unknown political figure.

BTW: It`s true and Strache really nominated Rosenkranz for President in today`s "Kronen Zeitung".

http://www.krone.at/krone/S32/object_id__187536/hxcms/index.html

In a first interview, Rosenkranz wants "security" and "immigration abuse" as her top campaign issues. She wants to temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement and impose more strict border controls against incoming people.

[Tender Branson]

There´s also a new IMAS poll in today`s Presse about the image of Islam in Austria:

54% of Austrian view Islam as a threat to Western lifestyle.

71% say that Islam is not in line with Western values like Democracy and Freedom.

4% of Austrians wouldn´t mind if someone from the family marries a Muslim.

59% want to ban the construction of minarets.

51% want to ban the construction of mosques and the wearing of headscarves.

72% have concerns about the willingness of Muslims in the country to integrate into the society.

61% say "Austria is a Christian country and should remain so".

42% say "the less foreigners in Austria, the better".

Another interesting fact is that Austrians do not think that they can openly discuss political and historical facts in the public without prejudice:

24% think so and another 20% say it depends on the issue.

That`s why pollsters from IMAS say there could be a huge gap in what people say in polls and what the do in the polling stations -> See Swiss referendum on Minarets and the polls before that.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/543159/index.do?_vl_backlink=/home/politik/innenpolitik/index.do

[Tender Branson]

4% of Austrians wouldn´t mind if someone from the family marries a Muslim.

This a pretty interesting fact, because about 3-4% of Austrian citizens are Muslims and I would guess that they don`t mind marrying a Muslim.

So it basically means that only 1% of Non-Muslim Austrians wouldn`t have a problem with someone from their family marrying a Muslim.

(it certainly depends on how high the number of "undecideds" is in this study, but IMAS hasn`t published it yet on their site)

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ announced today that chairman Josef Bucher won´t run for President, nor will any other BZÖ candidate.

That leaves a Fischer (SPÖ) vs. Rosenkranz (FPÖ) race.

BTW, Austria`s largest newspaper, the Kronen Zeitung, basically endorsed Rosenkranz today with an editorial urging voters to cast the ballot for her ...

Maybe another candidate - most likely Rudolf Gehring of the Austrian Christian Party - might qualify for the ballot, but until March 26 he needs to collect 6.000 signatures from voters first.

I need your advice: Should I sign a petition for Gehring to ensure that he`s on the ballot and to weaken the rightwinger Rosenkranz, even though I'm against the positions of the Christian Party ?

[Hash]

There´s also a new IMAS poll in today`s Presse about the image of Islam in Austria:
[...]

Wow, Austria's a crappy country.

[Хahar 🤔]

There´s also a new IMAS poll in today`s Presse about the image of Islam in Austria:

54% of Austrian view Islam as a threat to Western lifestyle.

71% say that Islam is not in line with Western values like Democracy and Freedom.

4% of Austrians wouldn´t mind if someone from the family marries a Muslim.

59% want to ban the construction of minarets.

51% want to ban the construction of mosques and the wearing of headscarves.

72% have concerns about the willingness of Muslims in the country to integrate into the society.

61% say "Austria is a Christian country and should remain so".

42% say "the less foreigners in Austria, the better".

Another interesting fact is that Austrians do not think that they can openly discuss political and historical facts in the public without prejudice:

24% think so and another 20% say it depends on the issue.

That`s why pollsters from IMAS say there could be a huge gap in what people say in polls and what the do in the polling stations -> See Swiss referendum on Minarets and the polls before that.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/543159/index.do?_vl_backlink=/home/politik/innenpolitik/index.do

[Tender Branson]

There´s also a new IMAS poll in today`s Presse about the image of Islam in Austria:
[...]

Wow, Austria's a crappy country.

Sometimes it is. Take a look at the postings in the Kronen Zeitung Forum below the article today in which the IKG (Austrian Jewish Council) attacks Rosenkranz as a Cellar-Nazi and her candidacy for President a slap in the face of the Holocaust survivors or victims in general:



Translation of "njutwomen": "Even if I go to jail now: Only a dead jew is a good jew."

[Tender Branson]

Added a poll now so you can vote as well ...

[Tender Branson]

New Presidential poll by OGM for News:

Fischer (SPÖ): 74% (-5)
Rosenkranz (FPÖ): 26% (+5)

Turnout should drop to as low as 58% according to the poll, because many ÖVP, Green and BZÖ voters are staying at home.

Rosenkranz has given a few interviews so far and has now started a full fight for Freedom of Speech and she wants to abolish Austria`s law of Nazi prohibition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verbotsgesetz_1947

For example she said that Freedom of Speech should also apply for the most scurrile, absurdest and reprehensible opinions. In many interviews she has said that the denial of the existence of gas chambers in WW2 should be part of Freedom of Speech.

Meanwhile, the Neo-Nazi Austrian NVP (Nationale Volkspartei) has endorsed Rosenkranz's candidacy, saying that she`s full in line with NVP issues. The NVP was banned to participate in the 2009 Upper Austria state elections because it violated the above mentioned Verbotsgesetz.

The ÖVP, the Greens and the BZÖ leaders on the other hand refused to endorse Fischer over Rosenkranz, saying that their voters are politically mature enough to vote for a candidate.

[Tender Branson]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verbotsgesetz_1947

A Vienna lawyer has sued Rosenkranz today because of violation of the above mentioned Verbotsgesetz. The FPÖ is now suing the lawyer and Rosenkranz now says "she doesn`t want to abolish the Verbotsgesetz".

President Fischer, until now very quiet about Rosenkranz, attacked her really hard today and said that he wants a firewall against Nazism in Austria and that her denial/positions on the Holocaust are completely wrong and cannot be tolerated.

Also, members of the ÖVP and Greens are now starting to attack Rosenkranz.

Let`s see how this impacts her poll numbers. Normally, attacks by the Left lead to an increase of Far-Right poll support here ...

[Tender Branson]

New Standard/Market poll:

Fischer: 65%
Rosenkranz: 17%
Undecided: 18%

Interestingly (well not really), Green voters are most likely to back Fischer over Rosenkranz.

84% of Austrians believe that Fischer will win the Presidential election, 6% say Rosenkranz and 3% say another candidate will win (even if there's no other candidate yet).

48% of Austrians say they are satisfied with the current field of candidates (only 2), 46% are not satisfied and want more candidates (especially ÖVP and Green voters).

http://derstandard.at/1267743364505/46-Prozent-wuenschen-sich-Alternative-zu-Fischer-und-Rosenkranz

Rosenkranz is coming under more criticism from SPÖ, ÖVP and Green party officials - with some ÖVP members calling her "unacceptable" for ÖVP voters and yeah, Green officials are generally very anti-Nazi and Alexander Van der Bellen is backing Fischer`s re-election.

Also, Cardinal Christoph Schönborn has attacked Rosenkranz and called her "unelectable".

[Tender Branson]

Disgusting:

Facebook group shut as users call for Nazi camp reopening

A Facebook group calling for the "reopening" of Austrian concentration camp Mauthausen was taken offline after winning more than 13,000 members, officials have said.

Political scientist Markus Rachbauer said members of the group called "Child abusers, we’ll reopen Mauthausen for you!" belittled Nazi era crimes.

"People posting messages there called for torture and murder," he said.

Facebook user Antonia F., for example, wrote she would "personally turn up the gas" for child abusers, while others suggested drug dealers, murderers and "social benefits parasites" should be gassed.

Willy Mernyi, head of the Mauthausen Committee Austria (MKÖ), said: "We immediately appealed to Facebook to shut this group down when we heard of its existence."

The Austrian Constitution Protection Authority (BVT) said today (Fri) it was investigating.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/General_News/2010-03-05/1403/Facebook_group_shut_as_users_call_for_Nazi_camp_reopening

VIENNA (Reuters) - A former concentration camp in Austria has been vandalized with anti-Semitic and anti-Turkish graffiti by suspected far-right activists, police and officials said on Friday.

Abuse was scrawled on the outer wall of the Mauthausen camp near Linz overnight and no culprits had been found, Michael Tischlinger, head of the provincial anti-terrorism police, told the Austrian Press Agency.

"Such a desecration is not a prank, the culprits had a select target," said Willi Mernyi, head of the Mauthausen Committee which helps oversee the site where around 100,000 people died during Nazi rule in Austria in 1938-45.

"There is an active far-right scene in Upper Austria that does not even shrink away from vandalizing a former concentration camp," Mernyi said in a statement.

The case shows authorities need to clamp down more on the extreme right, local Social Democrat politician Josef Ackerl said. Local police and Austria's interior ministry were not available for comment.

Far-right parties together captured nearly a third of the vote in Austria's 2008 national elections and feed off xenophobia and anti-European sentiment in the insular Alpine Republic.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE6243PH20100305

[Hash]

Austria should be treated as a joke, just like Oklahoma. They're the same.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Communist Party (KPÖ) wants the Interior Ministry to ban the presidential candidacy of Barbara Rosenkranz, because according to them she violates the Verbotsgesetz.

Rosenkranz is now also attacked by FPÖ-members: The Tyrol-FPÖ leader Gerald Hauser said that her positions about the Verbotsgesetz and about the existence of gas chambers in WW2 are not "in line with the mainstream of the FPÖ".

[Tender Branson]

After hiding behind extreme right-wing codes like "questioning the existence of gas chambers during WW2 is freedom of speech" and "I`ve grown up with the historical image of WW2 that was taught from 1946-1970" and big pressure from the media, party officials and intellectuals, Rosenkranz has said in a "Presse" interview today that "the existence of gas chambers and murdering of people there is undeniable." She`ll also give a speech/interview about it on Monday to distance herself more from the extreme views.

Don´t know though if her statement on Monday will lead to voters being more likely to vote for her, like Obama`s Philly speech saved his campaign.

For me at least, a Nazi-Wolf who eats the chalk is still a Nazi-Wolf.

[Mjh]

There´s also a new IMAS poll in today`s Presse about the image of Islam in Austria:
[...]

Wow, Austria's a crappy country.

Still better than Greece though.

[Hash]

There´s also a new IMAS poll in today`s Presse about the image of Islam in Austria:
[...]

Wow, Austria's a crappy country.

Still better than Greece though.

No.