Rate a Kyrsten Sinema vs. Ruben Gallego primary

[kwabbit]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

Running as an independent would be designed strictly to help Republicans hold the seat

[kwabbit]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

Running as an independent would be designed strictly to help Republicans hold the seat

Sinema (I) vs. R would be a likely hold for Sinema IMO. She's positioned herself well in the middle and would do very well with independents. Most Democrats would come around to her. It seems like most Dem anger for her is because she's not behaving like a Dem despite being elected as a Democrat, but if she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat and presented herself as purely an independent I think many Democrats would gladly accept that over the Republican.

Gallego (D) vs. Sinema (I) vs. R would be very likely R through the splitting of any center/left votes.

Gallego vs. R would be Tilt R because of likely independent distaste for Gallego after having to position himself as the left-wing candidate in the primary.

[Ritz]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

Running as an independent would be designed strictly to help Republicans hold the seat

Sinema (I) vs. R would be a likely hold for Sinema IMO. She's positioned herself well in the middle and would do very well with independents. Most Democrats would come around to her. It seems like most Dem anger for her is because she's not behaving like a Dem despite being elected as a Democrat, but if she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat and presented herself as purely an independent I think many Democrats would gladly accept that over the Republican.

Gallego (D) vs. Sinema (I) vs. R would be very likely R through the splitting of any center/left votes.

Gallego vs. R would be Tilt R because of likely independent distaste for Gallego after having to position himself as the left-wing candidate in the primary.

Seems questionable, considering Sinema has higher approvals among Republicans than Dems currently.

There was a poll from November with a similar premise also, and they found basically a tie.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

Running as an independent would be designed strictly to help Republicans hold the seat

Sinema (I) vs. R would be a likely hold for Sinema IMO. She's positioned herself well in the middle and would do very well with independents. Most Democrats would come around to her. It seems like most Dem anger for her is because she's not behaving like a Dem despite being elected as a Democrat, but if she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat and presented herself as purely an independent I think many Democrats would gladly accept that over the Republican.

Gallego (D) vs. Sinema (I) vs. R would be very likely R through the splitting of any center/left votes.

Gallego vs. R would be Tilt R because of likely independent distaste for Gallego after having to position himself as the left-wing candidate in the primary.

Lol, most Democrats hate her guts and would skip the race or vote third party if it is just her or one of her fellow Republicans.  There’s nothing she can do to win back the folks she’s f***ed over.  If she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat, Democrats would still hate her guts.  Sinema running as an independent would be about as appealing to Democrats as a third party Joe Manchin/Judas van Drew presidential ticket.  It’d take a Roy Moore-tier scandal for her to win the primary and she’s toast in the GE no matter what b/c of how much third party voting there would be if by some freak fluke she gets nominated again.  She’d come in a very, very distant third in a three way race btw.

[kwabbit]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

Running as an independent would be designed strictly to help Republicans hold the seat

Sinema (I) vs. R would be a likely hold for Sinema IMO. She's positioned herself well in the middle and would do very well with independents. Most Democrats would come around to her. It seems like most Dem anger for her is because she's not behaving like a Dem despite being elected as a Democrat, but if she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat and presented herself as purely an independent I think many Democrats would gladly accept that over the Republican.

Gallego (D) vs. Sinema (I) vs. R would be very likely R through the splitting of any center/left votes.

Gallego vs. R would be Tilt R because of likely independent distaste for Gallego after having to position himself as the left-wing candidate in the primary.

Lol, most Democrats hate her guts and would skip the race or vote third party if it is just her or one of her fellow Republicans.  There’s nothing she can do to win back the folks she’s f***ed over.  If she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat, Democrats would still hate her guts.  Sinema running as an independent would be about as appealing to Democrats as a third party Joe Manchin/Judas van Drew presidential ticket.  It’d take a Roy Moore-tier scandal for her to win the primary and she’s toast in the GE no matter what b/c of how much third party voting there would be if by some freak fluke she gets nominated again.  She’d come in a very, very distant third in a three way race btw.

She doesn’t have to appeal to Democrats especially well. She just has to appeal more than the Republican. Democrats will get in line. No one’s going to skip voting in a Presidential year and those who do come to vote for the Democratic president will overwhelmingly choose the most viable candidate that isn’t the Republican. If Sinema can fly under the radar in a Republican senate she shouldn’t lose as many votes to the Greens either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder if she will preemptively run as an Independent and dare the Democrats to run against her and lose the seat easily to the unified Republicans. Obviously a different case, but the Democratic Party has an agreement with Sanders to have him essentially stand alone in the Democratic primary.

A bitter primary challenge on the Democratic side of things would be very damaging. Either Sinema wins and the progressive wing is massively dissatisfied and the Green party will take plenty of votes, or Gallego wins but has already been branded as too left by Sinema and would likely do too poorly with independents to win.

Running as an independent would be designed strictly to help Republicans hold the seat

Sinema (I) vs. R would be a likely hold for Sinema IMO. She's positioned herself well in the middle and would do very well with independents. Most Democrats would come around to her. It seems like most Dem anger for her is because she's not behaving like a Dem despite being elected as a Democrat, but if she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat and presented herself as purely an independent I think many Democrats would gladly accept that over the Republican.

Gallego (D) vs. Sinema (I) vs. R would be very likely R through the splitting of any center/left votes.

Gallego vs. R would be Tilt R because of likely independent distaste for Gallego after having to position himself as the left-wing candidate in the primary.

Lol, most Democrats hate her guts and would skip the race or vote third party if it is just her or one of her fellow Republicans.  There’s nothing she can do to win back the folks she’s f***ed over.  If she dropped the pretense of being a Democrat, Democrats would still hate her guts.  Sinema running as an independent would be about as appealing to Democrats as a third party Joe Manchin/Judas van Drew presidential ticket.  It’d take a Roy Moore-tier scandal for her to win the primary and she’s toast in the GE no matter what b/c of how much third party voting there would be if by some freak fluke she gets nominated again.  She’d come in a very, very distant third in a three way race btw.

She doesn’t have to appeal to Democrats especially well. She just has to appeal more than the Republican. Democrats will get in line. No one’s going to skip voting in a Presidential year and those who do come to vote for the Democratic president will overwhelmingly choose the most viable candidate that isn’t the Republican. If Sinema can fly under the radar in a Republican senate she shouldn’t lose as many votes to the Greens either.

Sinema is a Republican.  If it was just her vs. an official Republican, the Green would crack double-digits.  With all due respect, you’re just plain wrong.  

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I could see a Maine senate 2012 redux in AZ in a three way race.

In my opinion there no way there isn't a Democratic Nominee if Sinema goes Independent or Third Party.

Someone gets squeezed in the 3-way race. I don't think its guaranteed to be her.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Is there a situation where the general comes down to just Gallego (D) vs Sinema (I), with a tacit endorsement of Sinema by the GOP?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Is there a situation where the general comes down to just Gallego (D) vs Sinema (I), with a tacit endorsement of Sinema by the GOP?

No. That would be like the Democrats endorsing Sysan Collins in 2026. Sinema votes against conservative judges, voted to impeach Trump twice and is way closer to an average democrat than an average Republican.