NYTimes/Siena: Biden+6 in AZ, +3 in FL, +6 in PA, +11 in WI

[Oryxslayer]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? This is only the latest poll that has the state diverging heavily from both it's neighbors and its national lean. Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

[redjohn]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

[Skye]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? This is only the latest poll that has the state diverging heavily from both it's neighbors and its national lean. Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

TBF, it's not like it's polling that much different from Michigan, at least if we're going by polling averages. This poll just seems a little on the higher end for Biden in the state.

The real question is why is Pennsylvania diverging so much from them.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

The real question is why is Pennsylvania diverging so much from them.

Isn't it pretty obvious, the rural portions of the state are Appalachian vs the Upper Midwest? Pennsylvania was closer than Michigan and Wisconsin both in 2008 and 2012.

[tagimaucia]

The real question is why is Pennsylvania diverging so much from them.

Isn't it pretty obvious, the rural portions of the state are Appalachian vs the Upper Midwest? Pennsylvania was closer than Michigan and Wisconsin both in 2008 and 2012.

This has always been my assumption. Northern rural whites have always been very swingy. A large portion of Pennsylvania’s rural whites are culturally much more southern and they are far more stubbornly pro-Trump.

[Roll Roons]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

It's funny because the conventional wisdom always had it as the least likely of the Rust Belt Trio to flip back.

[redjohn]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

It's funny because the conventional wisdom always had it as the least likely of the Rust Belt Trio to flip back.

Conventional wisdom from posters here who really overestimated Walker's wins and Trump's plurality-win in 2016

[DaleCooper]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

It's funny because the conventional wisdom always had it as the least likely of the Rust Belt Trio to flip back.

Conventional wisdom from posters here who really overestimated Walker's wins and Trump's plurality-win in 2016

Pundits in the media really talked it up too. I remember a lot of articles about supposed bellwether counties that were all-in for Trump in 2020 and how WOW wasn't sold on Trump in 2016 but they loved him now, etc., etc. None of it was backed up by much data.

[woodley park]

So time to ask, WTF is in the water in Wisconsin? Is it just because the state is the US epicenter of COVID right now, or is there something more...

It's partly that, but mostly because WI is very fertile ground for Democrats when they're doing well nationally. In raw numbers, Trump never had more backing in WI than Mitt Romney who lost handsomely. The metro areas are going to come out hard for Biden, and with the 'burbs swinging to Democrats and rural areas probably not swinging too hard to Trump, the state is lost for Trump.

It's funny because the conventional wisdom always had it as the least likely of the Rust Belt Trio to flip back.

Conventional wisdom from posters here who really overestimated Walker's wins and Trump's plurality-win in 2016

Conventional wisdom didn't see Wisconsin turning into a COVID-19 hotspot a week and a half before Election Day. The 'conventional wisdom' would also assume that a president would actually try and do something about a pandemic ravaging the country.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Florida has been a COVID hotspot for months now but you don't see Biden winning by double digits.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wisconsin could be the most D of the Big Three states for quite a while. There seems to be a new and very powerful Dem coalition forming in the state, from the combination of the major cities + the Madison-influenced rurals in the south-center of the state + the leftward shift in WOW + the return of the Driftless.

Meanwhile, Michigan is just kind of running in place, after its big jump to the right from 2010 to 2016. Some areas moving right, some moving left, just kind of balancing itself out.

And Pennsylvania would be Titanium R by now if not for suburban Philadelphia. It'll end up like a northern mirror-image Florida (slight D lean instead of slight R lean, inelastic, large population, lots of demographic variables that all tend to mostly cancel each other out).

[Malarkey Decider]

Wisconsin could be the most D of the Big Three states for quite a while. There seems to be a new and very powerful Dem coalition forming in the state, from the combination of the major cities + the Madison-influenced rurals in the south-center of the state + the leftward shift in WOW + the return of the Driftless.

Meanwhile, Michigan is just kind of running in place, after its big jump to the right from 2010 to 2016. Some areas moving right, some moving left, just kind of balancing itself out.

And Pennsylvania would be Titanium R by now if not for suburban Philadelphia. It'll end up like a northern mirror-image Florida (slight D lean instead of slight R lean, inelastic, large population, lots of demographic variables that all tend to mostly cancel each other out).

I still think Michigan, even though it is probably not this election, will be the biggest long-term problem.

[South Dakota Democrat]

This election is getting very close. If it wasn't for that damn Selzer poll, I'd probably switch my prediction to a narrow Biden win. Overall Trump is still favored has it but it could be just as close as 2016.

What a stupid take.

[NOVA Green]

To expound on the AZ-poll and the "Rest of Arizona besides Maricopa and Pima Counties", here's how the numbers looked in 2016 after some quick calculations (uh oh!):  

Rest of Arizona (Other than Pima and Maricopa) -- 2016

Trump  56%  337,612
Clinton  38%  233,869
Other  6.0%  36,351

And comparing that to this poll:

Rest of Arizona (Other than Pima and Maricopa) -- 2020 NYT/Siena

Trump 51% (-5)
Biden 42% (+4)
Other 2.0% (-4)

To add further, here is how the Cities of Maricopa County voted in 2016:

[Progressive Pessimist]

Still too many undecideds, as has been habitual with Siena, but these are decent results  less than 48 hours from the election.

[Buzz]

Embarrassing.  This is what is deemed as "high quality"? 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Efter this election there will be a single A+ pollster from Selzer, others will get C rating 


Trafalgar's guesses gave were better then their scientific methodologies.

[republican1993]

glad everyone came to their senses when i said these polls were off

[lfromnj]

Happy I just stuck to my ground with Marquette being the correct one, they were still off but not as bad.

[iceman]

Trash means trash. Siena, Quinnipiac, Marquette, PPP and Marist can't probably poll accurately their own households.