NYTimes/Siena: Biden+6 in AZ, +3 in FL, +6 in PA, +11 in WI

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA. 

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be. 

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why does NYT/Siena always seem to not know how to poll Latino voters?

For example, there is no way Trump is winning 47% of Latino voters in Pennsylvania.

[Buzz]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA. 

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be. 

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

I think Biden will win Wisconsin.  The double standard is bc Clinton led by 6.5 points on average in Wisconsin, with several double digit polls.  Trump never led a single one.  He still won.  So people are scared to call it as a result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322877824089378817

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322877824089378817

What I find funny is even if polls were as wrong as they were in 2016 in FL (literally 1% off in the end), Biden would still win the state Trump could definately win Fl but I find it funny how half this forum acts like it’s a done deal. You guys do know FL is more than just Miami Dad, right?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA. 

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be. 

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

I think Biden will win Wisconsin.  The double standard is bc Clinton led by 6.5 points on average in Wisconsin, with several double digit polls.  Trump never led a single one.  He still won.  So people are scared to call it as a result.

This is true, but there are a few things going on:

1) No education weighting in 2016, while there is education weighting in 2020
2) Hillary's polling average was 46%, whereas Biden's polling average is above 50%
3) The margin polling average in 2020 is higher in WI than it is in 2016 according to 538. Also, there were no double digit polls in October 2016.
4) Hillary never invested anything into WI whereas Trump invested last minute. Meanwhile, in 2020, both sides are investing
5) There is an active big COVID spike going on in WI that has been happening in the last month. It's gotten really bad over the last week; if anything, I think Biden has more potential to overperform in WI than underperform taking this into account.

All of these lead me to believe that Biden will easily win Wisconsin, and has a 0% (yes, I mean 0%) chance of losing the state.

[Blair]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA. 

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be. 

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

I think Biden will win Wisconsin.  The double standard is bc Clinton led by 6.5 points on average in Wisconsin, with several double digit polls.  Trump never led a single one.  He still won.  So people are scared to call it as a result.

This is true, but there are a few things going on:

1) No education weighting in 2016, while there is education weighting in 2020
2) Hillary's polling average was 46%, whereas Biden's polling average is above 50%
3) The margin polling average in 2020 is higher in WI than it is in 2016 according to 538. Also, there were no double digit polls in October 2016.
4) Hillary never invested anything into WI whereas Trump invested last minute. Meanwhile, in 2020, both sides are investing
5) There is an active big COVID spike going on in WI that has been happening in the last month. It's gotten really bad over the last week; if anything, I think Biden has more potential to overperform in WI than underperform taking this into account.

All of these lead me to believe that Biden will easily win Wisconsin, and has a 0% (yes, I mean 0%) chance of losing the state.

IIRC I heard on the 538 podcast that there were also a lot fewer state polls in Wisconsin in 2016

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322877824089378817

You guys do know FL is more than just Miami Dad, right?

It's Orlando dad, too. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

I’m old to remember when Trump was surging because Selzer had him at 48% in Iowa.

Hey man, we needed you yesterday more than ever.

[afleitch]

I did a quick reallocation of undecideds by race/education for Pennsylvania and Florida by simply allocating them to who those groups said they were voting for. Biden gets 53, Trump 45 and others 2 in Pennsylvania and in Florida Biden gets 51 to Trump 46 and others 3.

In these polls in these states at least, those who are undecided demographically favour Biden.

[Gustaf]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA. 

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be. 

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

I think Biden will win Wisconsin.  The double standard is bc Clinton led by 6.5 points on average in Wisconsin, with several double digit polls.  Trump never led a single one.  He still won.  So people are scared to call it as a result.

This is true, but there are a few things going on:

1) No education weighting in 2016, while there is education weighting in 2020
2) Hillary's polling average was 46%, whereas Biden's polling average is above 50%
3) The margin polling average in 2020 is higher in WI than it is in 2016 according to 538. Also, there were no double digit polls in October 2016.
4) Hillary never invested anything into WI whereas Trump invested last minute. Meanwhile, in 2020, both sides are investing
5) There is an active big COVID spike going on in WI that has been happening in the last month. It's gotten really bad over the last week; if anything, I think Biden has more potential to overperform in WI than underperform taking this into account.

All of these lead me to believe that Biden will easily win Wisconsin, and has a 0% (yes, I mean 0%) chance of losing the state.

IIRC I heard on the 538 podcast that there were also a lot fewer state polls in Wisconsin in 2016

Wisconsin wasn't considered a top-tier battleground in 2016, so it makes sense it was less polled. Upsets are much more likely to happen in states that aren't on the radar to begin with.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I did a quick reallocation of undecideds by race/education for Pennsylvania and Florida by simply allocating them to who those groups said they were voting for. Biden gets 53, Trump 45 and others 2 in Pennsylvania and in Florida Biden gets 51 to Trump 46 and others 3.

In these polls in these states at least, those who are undecided demographically favour Biden.

I don't think this is a good idea. Just because the demographic generally favors Biden does not mean that undecideds of that group will go for Biden. It's easy to see why a conservative-leaning Hispanic/Black voter could have reservations about Trump, but ultimately vote for him anyways. IMO the only thing you can really look at when trying to figure out where undecideds will go is by looking at Trump approval / disapproval vs Biden fav / unfav among these undecided voters.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I did a quick reallocation of undecideds by race/education for Pennsylvania and Florida by simply allocating them to who those groups said they were voting for. Biden gets 53, Trump 45 and others 2 in Pennsylvania and in Florida Biden gets 51 to Trump 46 and others 3.

In these polls in these states at least, those who are undecided demographically favour Biden.

I don't think this is a good idea. Just because the demographic generally favors Biden does not mean that undecideds of that group will go for Biden. It's easy to see why a conservative-leaning Hispanic/Black voter could have reservations about Trump, but ultimately vote for him anyways. IMO the only thing you can really look at when trying to figure out where undecideds will go is by looking at Trump approval / disapproval vs Biden fav / unfav among these undecided voters.

Undecideds in almost every poll overwhelmingly disapprove Trump.

[Asta]

These Wisconsin numbers have been horrible for Trump. The state is borderline Likely D.

Which, combined with MI and Biden presumably holding all Clinton-2016 states, means that Trump MUST run a straight through AZ, FL, GA, NC, and PA.  

Not impossible by any means (nor is him winning in WI or MI), but Biden being loosely set-up with 258/259 (depending on NE-02) EC votes is a pretty spectacular position in which to be.  

Does Trump really have any chance whatsoever of winning WI? How many more Biden + double digit polls in Wisconsin do we need before we say Biden is guaranteed to win there? I feel as if there is a double standard where every Trump + 8 poll or whatever in a state means it is Safe R, but for some reason consistent double digit leads in WI and WI + 17 are not enough for people to say WI will absolutely go for Biden.

I don’t think Biden will win by double digits - I think he wins by 7.5% - but my assumption is assuming that there is a big turnout surge among WWC. With no turnout surge, Biden should get close or actually win by double digits

It was the only state after all that never showed Trump in the lead in 2016 and was the state with the biggest polling miss among battleground states. I'm more comfortable with Biden's lead this time because he breaks 50% and covid surge is crazy there right now.

[xavier110]

I really cannot wait until AZ polls close and Maricopa dumps the early vote. It will be fascinating.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Didn't Tender say that D's were panicking over the wrong Selzer poll😀😀😀

[Holmes]

Didn't Tender say that D's were panicking over the wrong Selzer poll😀😀😀

I mean, they were panicking. It doesn't take much to trigger a Democrat's anxiety.

[redjohn]

Seems Selzer isn't going to totally prove me wrong. Biden will win WI, MI, AZ, and PA at the very least. WI is a very safe bet for Biden, and has been for a while.

[Wiz in Wis]

Obviously I am not 100% sure of anything after 2016, but for the past few weeks, based on the number of Biden/Harris yard signs popping up in my otherwise red part of Wisconsin (Rural Sauk County) - Biden has a lot more momentum here all of a sudden.

And... Tammy won by 11
Jill Korovsky won by 11
Assembly Dems won, net statewide by 10

10% isn't unattainable

[Beet]

This election is getting very close. If it wasn't for that damn Selzer poll, I'd probably switch my prediction to a narrow Biden win. Overall Trump is still favored has it but it could be just as close as 2016.

[swf541]

This election is getting very close. If it wasn't for that damn Selzer poll, I'd probably switch my prediction to a narrow Biden win. Overall Trump is still favored has it but it could be just as close as 2016.

What the f--k is this trash?

[Alben Barkley]

This election is getting very close. If it wasn't for that damn Selzer poll, I'd probably switch my prediction to a narrow Biden win. Overall Trump is still favored has it but it could be just as close as 2016.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Yes! Go Wisconsin! And LOL at the people freaking out over that one Iowa poll yesterday.
 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

This election is getting very close. If it wasn't for that damn Selzer poll, I'd probably switch my prediction to a narrow Biden win. Overall Trump is still favored has it but it could be just as close as 2016.

What the f--k is this trash?

It's actually pretty pro-Biden's-chances for Beet

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Added changes with previous polls.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-fl-pa-wi/bc6b622f38350414/full.pdf

Arizona
Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 43% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Not sure/refused 5% (-1)

10/26-30, 1252 LV, MoE: 3%, Changes with Oct 1-3

Florida
Biden 47% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+2)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Not sure/refused 6% (-2)

10/27-31, 1451 LV, MoE: 3.2%, Changes with Sep 30-Oct 1

Pennsylvania
Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 43% (+1)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Not sure/refused 5% (n/c)

Hawkins previously at 1%

10/26-31, 1862 LV, MoE: 2.4%, Changes with Sep 30-Oct 2

Wisconsin
Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 41% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
Someone else 1% (+1)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Not sure/refused 4% (-1)

10/26-30, 1253 LV, MoE: 3.2%, Changes with Oct 8-11