NYTimes/Siena: Biden+6 in AZ, +3 in FL, +6 in PA, +11 in WI

[n1240]

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az-fl-pa-wi/bc6b622f38350414/full.pdf

Arizona

Biden 49
Trump 43

10/26-30, 1252 LV

Florida

Biden 47
Trump 44

10/27-31, 1451 LV

Pennsylvania

Biden 49
Trump 43

10/26-31, 1862 LV

Wisconsin

Biden 52
Trump 41

10/26-30, 1253 LV

[President Johnson]

But, but... Selzer, Doomers and SirWoodbury/Ljube told me Uncle Joe is going to lose.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Woke up at 4:30 this morning after being out at a "party" (literally four people) last night for this and was not disappointed. 

[Orser67]

Hell yeah. Almost worth staying up until 5 am for

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Wisconsin votes 18 points to the left of Iowa that would be ...something.

[Horus]

Good, not great.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, but... Selzer, Doomers and SirWoodbury/Ljube told me Uncle Joe is going to lose.

D's need 51 Senators to vote Biden in, not 50, because Pence can vote for Trump when he opens the EC calculator and he is still Prez of Senate on Jan, GA runoffs is later than Jan 3rd. Then it goes to House for simple majority

D's much win a remaining Tossups to prevent this GA R go to 50 with Ossoff, IA, KS, MT, SC or TX

But, I am not worried Covid is still gonna be around no matter whom is Prez and keep mutating until there is a vaccine, I don't care how many times you test, the virus is gonna spread, Pelosi should of passed 1.8T she kept repeating testing

[philly09]

Good, not great.

I do wish Biden broke 50 here, WI notwithstanding.

[VAR]

AZ-SEN: 50-43 Kelly

Trump approval:
AZ - 45/52 (-7)
FL - 46/48 (-2)
PA - 45/51 (-6)
WI - 43/52 (-9)

Trump favorability:
AZ - 46/52 (-6)
FL - 47/49 (-2)
PA - 46/51 (-5)
WI - 44/53 (-9)

Biden favorability:
AZ - 51/46 (+5)
FL - 50/45 (+5)
PA - 51/44 (+7)
WI - 54/42 (+12)

[CellarDoor]

Trump no better than 44% in any of these crucial states. The more things change, the more things stay the same.

Seems more reasonable to me than any poll showing wild swings at the last moment. This has been a steady race for a long time, since even before the pandemic.

[DaleCooper]

Wisconsin is Safe D at this point.

[cvparty]

the recalled 2016 vote seems R-friendly—trump+7 in AZ, +4 FL, +4 PA and +2 WI

[Rand]

P R E S I D E N T
B I D E N

[Landslide Lyndon]

the recalled 2016 vote seems R-friendly—trump+7 in AZ, +4 FL, +4 PA and +2 WI

It's Siena. They always have R-friendly samples.

[philly09]

I know Nate said he wished he could have done GA and IA, but MI would have been nice too. Though if WI is gone for Trump, so is MI.

[afleitch]

Actually good numbers for Biden given they don't push undecideds hard.

At this stage, keep an eye on the demographics of who the undecideds are.

[philly09]

Actually good numbers for Biden given they don't push undecideds hard.

At this stage, keep an eye on the demographics of who the undecideds are.

How come Nate never pushes the undecideds?

[n1240]

Just caught a glimpse of VARep's comment on Maricopa County before it was deleted (not calling you out, dear) -- for anybody interested, here's the county breakdown for AZ:

(+/- with respect to 2016, if available)

Pima County
Biden 61% (+8)
Trump 32% (-8)
Other 3% (-4)

Phoenix (Maricopa County)
Biden 57%
Trump 32%
Other 4%

Maricopa County (without Phoenix)
Biden 44%
Trump 47%
Other 3% (Jorgensen 2%)

Rest of Arizona (Other than Pima and Maricopa
Biden 42%
Trump 51%
Other 2%

Maricopa cumulative is Biden+6.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just caught a glimpse of VARep's comment on Maricopa County before it was deleted (not calling you out, dear:  I thought the "Rest of Maricopa w/o Phoenix" was "All of Maricopa" at first too and almost had a heart attack).  

For anybody interested, here's the county breakdown for AZ:

(+/- with respect to 2016, if available)

Pima County
Biden 61% (+8)
Trump 32% (-8)
Other 3% (-4)

Phoenix (Maricopa County)
Biden 57%
Trump 32%
Other 4%

Maricopa County (without Phoenix)
Biden 44%
Trump 47%
Other 3% (Jorgensen 2%)

Rest of Arizona (Other than Pima and Maricopa)
Biden 42%
Trump 51%
Other 2%

[Landslide Lyndon]

Siena: we don't push undecideds

Selzer: hold my beer.

[philly09]

Just caught a glimpse of VARep's comment on Maricopa County before it was deleted (not calling you out, dear:  I thought the "Rest of Maricopa w/o Phoenix" was "All of Maricopa" at first too and almost had a heart attack).  

For anybody interested, here's the county breakdown for AZ:

(+/- with respect to 2016, if available)

Pima County
Biden 61% (+8)
Trump 32% (-8)
Other 3% (-4)

Phoenix (Maricopa County)
Biden 57%
Trump 32%
Other 4%

Maricopa County (without Phoenix)
Biden 44%
Trump 47%
Other 3% (Jorgensen 2%)

Rest of Arizona (Other than Pima and Maricopa)
Biden 42%
Trump 51%
Other 2%

44-47 was Maricopa margin in 2016. Add Phoenix and Trump is screwed.

[Buzz]

Expected.  WI appears gone, but everything else is still in play.

[philly09]

Expected.  WI appears gone, but everything else is still in play.

It's possible Biden over performs in PA due to high turnout in Philly and the suburbs. I've had Biden's floor at 5.

[Hammy]

FL was too R favorable in 2016 and too D favorable in 2018.

2016 was R 46-42, so undecideds broke about 2:1 for Clinton.
2018 both polls had about 3:1 undecideds going Republican.

Florida's range based on their polling history could be somewhere from R 50-49 to D 53-47--but given the latter is highly unlikely, more than likely we'd get close to a tie from this, consistent with Florida's result likely ending somewhere near a statistical tie.

Their Pennsylvania performance in 2016 was poor, though consistent with most other pollsters. D 46-39 though this was on Oct 25 (which may have been before Comey if I remember right). Even then they didn't over-poll either candidate, simply undecideds broke 9:1 for Trump. A similar error this time would result in D 50-49--too close for comfort given the mail ballot situation and might support Pennsylvania being closer than most think.

I don't see an Arizona poll for 2016 but their last one in 2018 was R 48-46, and Dems were under-polled by 4%.  With Biden already at 49, this poll would support at the very minimum 51-45, but could be as high as 53% for Biden.

Siena did not appear to poll Wisconsin in either 2016 or 2018 though their polling is consistent with Biden's lead growing--which hopefully isn't the result of herding.

[Buzz]

Expected.  WI appears gone, but everything else is still in play.

It's possible Biden over performs in PA due to high turnout in Philly and the suburbs. I've had Biden's floor at 5.

I mean you could definitely be correct.  We will have to wait and see.